Ghost Rider, on 08 November 2011 - 04:29 AM, said:
I was kind of afraid you might say that.

So what you basically need for your theory to work is the fundamental change of the NW. Imho nothing in the text so far suggests that this kind of change is to be expected. I mean, they murdered Jon to prevent this kind of change. And Jon... wanted to strengthen the NW, yes, but he mostly tried to include other forces.
There is however something in the text that would support the likely failure of the NW, quoted upthread by Kissdbyfire:
That quote seems to foreshadow the eventual failure of the NW imho. Of course your more optimistic read of the situation post assassination attempt might win out, but for a full-out war to start, we would need the Others to be able to cross the Wall somehow.
I don't see it this way at all, why do the NW have to be successfully restored and united for the NW to be lightbringer? Why can't the next NW be made out of wildlings, women and the new recruits or simply anyone brave enough to engage in the fight with the Others and remain loyal to the LC?
The failure of
this NW (Marsh and the rest) does not say anything about the success or failure of the following. This NW can collapse into ruin and from that will rise a new (stronger, better, faster) Night's Watch. This new NW will be the essence of what they are suppose to be, the men loyal to their Lord Commander, and the ones that hold true to the spirit of the vow.
Ghost Rider, on 08 November 2011 - 04:29 AM, said:
But really, the situation at the moment is this: The NW don't know anymore about the threat of the Others then most everybody else in the seven kingdoms. The Wildlings likely know more about fighting the Others then the NW. And they're not interested in learning more either with the exception of their (former) LC Jon Snow who they just murdered. Where do you see the sparks to light the fire? I'd sooner think they're about to be wiped out.
Hmm, that sounds very fine and good, but I really don't see how that could possibly happen. We have to work with the men we have, there won't be any others. And Jon repeatedly remarks how all the good men of the NW are gone and he cannot rely on any of them. I totally agree with him there. From what we've seen (ok, via his POV, but I still think it's rather reliable), they're a bunch of narrow-minded idiots who just want to keep everything the way it always has been which is of course a very human desire, but won't be of much use when facing a new threat.
So there is a very real danger that "Lightbringer" in this normative sense might never reach its full potential.
If you look at the story of the Last Hero, he goes with 12 men to find the CotF AFTER the Others have invaded the lands. Winter is in full mode when he get's the help from the CotF. So for the LC and the NW to fail now and disintegrate only to later be "reforged" into a force is not ultimate failure in defending the realm. If a new NW rises, well they can defend the realm and reach it's true potential.
I agree winter and Others will come and the Wall will fall (symbolically maybe), but holding the Wall is not what the first NW was about, they defeated the Others on the ground. The Wall came later and is only a defence post, it can fall and it could be because the current NW was not true.
The forging of lightbringer took three attempts according to the prophecy of AA, and it could this time too. Mormont tried, Jon tried and maybe he or someone else will try again. All Jon's opponents will probably die soon from the Others or the fight that is likely taking place in the yard at Castle Black after the assassination.
Ghost Rider, on 08 November 2011 - 04:29 AM, said:
On a somewhat different note: if you think it possible that a body of men could be Lightbringer, how about a single man who swore the oath and is still true, say Samwell Tarly? I really don't see much difference for symbolic value there. And I guess it will make a difference whether the NW men swore their oath in front of a heart tree or in a sept, because of the Old Gods magic in the Wall. We'we already seen that at work when Sam crossed the Wall throught that Gate and I expect it to come into play again.
I think there will be a few men in the new NW, those who still are loyal to the LC. It was not numbers that won the war the last time. I like to think that swearing the oath before the weirwood is important, but that would rule out a few of Jon's friends (I think they are still loyal to him) and I don't like that