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The northmen inside and outside Winterfell. Conspiration?

Bolton Ramsay Winterfell Northmen Manderly

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#1 Eyron-san、最初の

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 01:58 PM

Right Before Theon and Jeyne jumps off the outer wall he hears a warhorn from the north of Winterfell. Not the drums as before so I'm guessing Umber is no longer alone out there. It got me to thinking about the other lords and ladys present at Winterfell, are they really bound to Bolton and Freys by hostages? The one we know for sure is Umber and they have sided already, Whoresbane with Bolton and Mors with Stannis.
I think a smart move from the Northmen would be to attack as soon as the Freys are starting to come through the gate. The Freys would have Manderly at their back, the gate could be kept open by people on the inside and the Boltons would be trapped. That is why I think that we will see Winterfell under attack early in TWOW. But where do the northern houses present at Winterfell stand? And are they prepared to kill their host? All those who are at Winterfell are bound by the law of guest right. At least Manderly seem to care enough about that to wait until his Frey guests had departed before killing them (I assume they are dead, pork pie? Yeah sure).
I have a hunch this is why Roose Bolton sent the Freys and Manderlys men out to meet Stannis (he thinks) while he sit safely inside, with hostages.
We later learn that Stannis' host were still trapped in the snow some days march away from Winterfell so the warhorn belonged to someone else.

The northmen that to me seem to be loyal (comparatively) to Roose Bolton, besides his own bannermen are:
Lady Dustin
Lord Locke
The Ryswells

One of the wild cards of the northmen is old Lord Locke.
I noticed in a reread of Davos chapters that Lord Locke has someone at Manderlys court, who expressed his opinion about Ramsay being a monster. This Locke person is unknown to us but GRRM bothered to give us details of his coat of arms, the crossed bronze keys on white and purple.
It suggests Old lord Locke is in on the plot with Manderly, and perhaps other northmen too. We don't know of any heirs, and the man is very old, so maybe he has little to loose by going against the Boltons.
On the other hand the Locke at Manderlys court could be a spy for Bolton.

Lady Dustin is of uncertain loyalty but some things she did speaks for her conspiring against Bolton.
I always thought it strange how Lady Dustin sought out Theon to talk, and always revealing so much. Her pointing out how craven she thinks Manderly really is made me suspicious. Why is she even interested in talking to Theon? Maybe she hopes to conceal the plot against the Boltons, thinking Theon feeds the information back to Ramsay. I think she really hated Eddard, but she loved Brandon so she may have a soft spot for Starks still. She definitely hates Ramsay for killing Domeric and she is not too happy with Roose Bolton for making Ramsay his heir. So if I was her I would think better a Stark as liege lord, who would be in debt to me for securing him Winterfell and restoring his family to it, than a Bolton hated by everyone.

The quarrelsome Ryswells...
Roose Ryswell sent out scouts but none of them returned. Maybe they were killed by other northmen around the area or they were sent out to them with information. Boltons own scouts seems to return so... However, since he is cousin to Lady Dustins father he could support Bolton for the hope of lordship.
Lady Dustins brothers Roger and Rickard Ryswell are also of unsure loyalty.

The other northmen in Winterfell does not seem to have any reason to be loyal to Bolton, since their houses are almost extinct or we know they are conspiring against Bolton like Manderly. Tallharts, Lady Cerwyn and Hornwoods should want Ramsay and Roose dead ASAP for what they have done to their families, and their remaining children are hostages to the Ironmen at Torrhen's Square, not the Boltons. Whoresbane Umber is there because of the Greatjon being hostage, but now that Mors is with Stannis it could well be useless to keep up pretence.

So, it's possible all of the north, or a large part of it, have secretly been conspiring against the Boltons, not just Manderly and Robett Glover. And it's possible they all have been informed about Robbs decree from Maege Mormont (who is alive according to her daughter Alysane) or Galbart Glover, and Rickons return from the dead from Manderly. At the end of ADWD Rickon could be sitting in White Harbour and a host of northmen could be surrounding Winterfell. Manderly has some ten thousand men waiting for his command and they could be closing in by now. That is what he could have been waiting for, munching away on his pies.
Roose is not stupid, he knows some plot exists. He could have a great backup plan that he thinks spoils all of the northmens efforts... Like ruining Robbs decree (if it says Jon=King) by telling the north that Jon let the King-Beyond the Wall live, despite all the trouble the northmen have with wildlings, despite all the hate that has been building up for thousands of years.
But Rickons claim he can't ruin. Or the fact that Theon and Jeyne got away and can destroy the Bolton claim to Winterfell by telling the north she is not Arya.

What do you think?

Edited by Eira, 14 November 2011 - 06:07 PM.


#2 Lady of Long Lake

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 08:07 PM

So, it's possible all of the north, or a large part of it, have secretly been conspiring against the Boltons, not just Manderly and Robett Glover. And it's possible they all have been informed about Robbs decree from Maege Mormont (who is alive according to her daughter Alysane) or Galbart Glover, and Rickons return from the dead from Manderly. At the end of ADWD Rickon could be sitting in White Harbour and a host of northmen could be surrounding Winterfell. Manderly has some ten thousand men waiting for his command and they could be closing in by now. That is what he could have been waiting for, munching away on his pies.
Roose is not stupid, he knows some plot exists. He could have a great backup plan that he thinks spoils all of the northmens efforts... Like ruining Robbs decree (if it says Jon=King) by telling the north that Jon let the King-Beyond the Wall live, despite all the trouble the northmen have with wildlings, despite all the hate that has been building up for thousands of years.
But Rickons claim he can't ruin. Or the fact that Theon and Jeyne got away and can destroy the Bolton claim to Winterfell by telling the north she is not Arya.

What do you think?


I would love for this to happen Eira:) Squash the Freys and Boltons and bring honor back to the North.

#3 tze

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 08:55 PM

At the Harvest Festival at Winterfell, way back in ACOK, Wyman Manderly was instructed to work together with Whoresbane and Crowfood Umber to build ships to defend the Bay of Seals against raiders. Communication channels should exist between Manderly and the Umbers. It's not inconceivable that Crowfood and Whoresbane, whom even Roose admits have "a certain low cunning", may be in on any Manderly plans.

The Cerwyns live closest to Winterfell, and that proximity meant that they visited the most. Not just the lords and ladies, but the men who served them. The Cerwyn men may have been able to already confirm to the lords inside Winterfell that Jeyne isn't Arya, since those men might have seen both Jeyne AND Arya with their own eyes, much more often than any non-Winterfell staff.

Roose Ryswell sent out scouts but none of them returned. Maybe they were killed by other northmen around the area or they were sent out to them with information. Boltons own scouts seems to return so... However, since he is cousin to Lady Dustins father he could support Bolton for the hope of lordship.


Well, we know those scouts didn't head to Stannis. It makes sense that they're heading to give info to a second Northern army. And Roose Bolton has named the man who everybody knows murdered the Ryswells' grandson/cousin/nephew, Domeric, so I can see Ryswell betrayal very easily. Roose even tells Ramsay that, if the truth about the Boltons' burning of Winterfell were known, everybody would abandon them except (so he thinks) Lady Dustin, so that means Roose doesn't think the Ryswells are Bolton loyalists.

I wonder if the Northmen are plotting, not just against the Boltons/Freys/Lannisters, but against STANNIS as well. Melisandre loves burning weirwoods, and we know how much that pissed Jon off. The Northern lords know Stannis let the wildlings through, they would logically have asked what Stannis made them do to allow them through. Melisandre's little "Burn the weirwood and rejoice in R'hllor!" won't just have pissed off the wildlings---the Northmen will be equally pissed. And they might already know what happened to the godswood at Storm's End, and I can't see them letting R'hllor-followers anywhere near the godswood of Winterfell. The Northmen want a Stark, not a Baratheon, leading them; somehow I doubt Stannis actually got Mors Umber or any of the hill clans to swear allegiance before a weirwood tree. And the clansmen are relatively okay with letting Stannis's southern army get snowed in, when the clansmen were perfectly capable of just heading on ahead to join Crowfood Umber. It's possible that the clansmen want Stannis's southern knights' strength depleted, so they can get rid of Stannis AND the Boltons (with the aid of whatever Northern army you just know is hiding elsewhere in the snow).

Bran and his party met one of the Liddles, and it was obvious to that Liddle who Bran was. The Liddles are with Stannis, yet nobody's mentioned to him that Brandon Stark is alive.

I think it's very interesting that Alys Karstark, upon fleeing Karhold, headed straight for the Wall and "the last son of Eddard Stark". There were other places a lot closer she could have gone to, but instead, she chose to head for someone who is 1) Lord Commander of the Watch, and ostensibly supposed to not interfere in matters such as what uncle is hunting what niece, and 2) the brother of the guy who killed her father. That she did this means, to me, that the North is VERY aware of Jon Snow, much more aware than they've indicated to Stannis, and they VERY much see him as a son of Eddard Stark, not just a bastard.

Moreover, during the conversation with Davos, Robett Glover started going on about how Snows can't be trusted. But we know Galbart Glover was fostering Laurence Snow, Lord Hornwood's bastard son; during the Harvest Festival, Ser Rodrik mentions that naming Laurence Snow as the new Lord of the Hornwood would make the Glovers happy. Why was Robett Glover so eager to make sure Davos, Stannis's Hand, "knew" how much the Glovers and the Northmen "hate" bastards? And Manderly tells Davos to make sure and get the direwolf so they can prove the kid's identity, but never mentions the obvious (that the Lord Commander of the Watch, Ned Stark's bastard son, who was raised with the trueborn Starks at Winterfell, could just as easily confirm the kid's identity). The Northmen seem to be dancing around talking about Jon, and there's no logical reason for them to be doing that. He's Lord Commander of the Watch, and everybody in the North knows he exists----Ned wasn't exactly hiding him.

I wonder if it's possible that the North has already decided to throw in with Jon, due to Robb's will, and Manderly wants Rickon just to save a Stark, not to put him in charge of Winterfell. Manderly told Davos he'd swear for Stannis if Davos brought him "his liege lord". But if Stannis dies, or if Rickon isn't really Manderly's liege lord . . . well, we've seen Manderly pull a fast one before.

And are they prepared to kill their host? All those who are at Winterfell are bound by the law of guest right. At least Manderly seem to care enough about that to wait until his Frey guests had departed before killing them (I assume they are dead, pork pie? Yeah sure).


Ah, but is Roose technically their host? Roose doesn't own Winterfell. Roose is an intruder there. And GRRM goes to great pains to point out that Manderly, not Roose, provided the food and drink.

Edited by tze, 13 November 2011 - 08:58 PM.


#4 MtnLion

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 09:14 PM

Ah, but is Roose technically their host? Roose doesn't own Winterfell. Roose is an intruder there. And GRRM goes to great pains to point out that Manderly, not Roose, provided the food and drink.

Guest rights are intended to protect both host and guest. But I definitely like the points you bring up about the trickery that may be going on. Remember too that Lord Frey sadi that Robb had not invoked the "mayhaps" when he accepted betrothal. There definitely seems to be some grown up versions of the children's games in play.

#5 idreamofpikas

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 10:56 PM

I wonder if it's possible that the North has already decided to throw in with Jon, due to Robb's will, and Manderly wants Rickon just to save a Stark, not to put him in charge of Winterfell. Manderly told Davos he'd swear for Stannis if Davos brought him "his liege lord". But if Stannis dies, or if Rickon isn't really Manderly's liege lord . . . well, we've seen Manderly pull a fast one before.



.


I'm not saying that Jon wont become Lord of the North at some point but at the present with his ties to the Black watch, his association with Wildlings, Stannis and a new religion as well as never giving any indication that he would accept even if offered means that I doubt the North would be putting all their eggs in one basket.

Plus I dont agree with 'The North' being united over anything right now. Many of the Lords are going to have different views on what the immediate future should be. Some might want a Stark return, others might want to concentrate on dealing with Winter rather than another War so soon after the last one.and a few may even prefer a change in leadership or with the Starks out of the way a chance to maneuver themselves as the prime family of the North in the future. Not every family is going to have the same goals and more importantly most families are not going to be as trusting with their plans to others to form some big plot.

#6 Theo1

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 12:23 AM

Tze, this is well thought out and researched. I think you are onto a lot here and the north remembers and will likely f up the Boltons and frees and may be ready to hand Stannis back to the south

#7 bemused

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 04:56 AM

Didn't Lady Dustin supply some of the food and supplies, as well ? I thought she laid on her hatred of Ned a bit thick... and I think it's telling that she understands Roose so well. She may not be as coldly calculating as he is , but she is calculating and capable of playing a long game herself.

I wondered about those horns coming from the North and like the idea of another Northern army. I've never thought the Northerners would let Stannis and his zealot knights anywhere near the Winterfell Godswood . I think they'd better stay clear of the ones on the island by their camp , as well.

#8 Eyron-san、最初の

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 05:47 AM

I would love for this to happen Eira:) Squash the Freys and Boltons and bring honor back to the North.

Me too, big time!
I really think there is something going on, I can't see Manderly sitting silent with the information that it was Ramsay who burned Winterfell.

At the Harvest Festival at Winterfell, way back in ACOK, Wyman Manderly was instructed to work together with Whoresbane and Crowfood Umber to build ships to defend the Bay of Seals against raiders. Communication channels should exist between Manderly and the Umbers. It's not inconceivable that Crowfood and Whoresbane, whom even Roose admits have "a certain low cunning", may be in on any Manderly plans.

I was thinking about the communications also, I think they have had plenty opportunity to send messages to the rest of the north too. I thought it especially interesting that the message to Bolton we assume came from Arnolf Karstark came so soon before Theon heard the horn outside Winterfell. And that Wyman Manderly dropped his pretence completely when he taunted the Freys after Little Walders death, so that Bolton felt they could no longer wait, they had to go out or the hall would go in to chaos. So it seemed to me like Manderly had some strategy he was playing all along and now it was time to move.

The Cerwyns live closest to Winterfell, and that proximity meant that they visited the most. Not just the lords and ladies, but the men who served them. The Cerwyn men may have been able to already confirm to the lords inside Winterfell that Jeyne isn't Arya, since those men might have seen both Jeyne AND Arya with their own eyes, much more often than any non-Winterfell staff.

Ah, I had forgotten that about the Cerwyns! It would be strange is there was no one who recognized Jeyne, Theon was constantly thinking about her eye-colour so I think some of them knew but was holding back for the sake of the plot. Lulling Bolton in to a false security.

Well, we know those scouts didn't head to Stannis. It makes sense that they're heading to give info to a second Northern army. And Roose Bolton has named the man who everybody knows murdered the Ryswells' grandson/cousin/nephew, Domeric, so I can see Ryswell betrayal very easily. Roose even tells Ramsay that, if the truth about the Boltons' burning of Winterfell were known, everybody would abandon them except (so he thinks) Lady Dustin, so that means Roose doesn't think the Ryswells are Bolton loyalists.

Right, I think they would go with the other northmen if they knew about the burning of Winterfell too, and they are not loving Bolton. The reason I think some of them may be left out of the plot is their internal strife, it's risky to judge who of them would betray the other for lordship from Bolton, there is the Hornwood lands waiting for taking besides the Rills, and Lady Cerwyns lands who has no heirs. So I think they could have been left out of the conspiracy even if they are not Bolton loyalists.

I wonder if the Northmen are plotting, not just against the Boltons/Freys/Lannisters, but against STANNIS as well. Melisandre loves burning weirwoods, and we know how much that pissed Jon off. The Northern lords know Stannis let the wildlings through, they would logically have asked what Stannis made them do to allow them through. Melisandre's little "Burn the weirwood and rejoice in R'hllor!" won't just have pissed off the wildlings---the Northmen will be equally pissed. And they might already know what happened to the godswood at Storm's End, and I can't see them letting R'hllor-followers anywhere near the godswood of Winterfell. The Northmen want a Stark, not a Baratheon, leading them; somehow I doubt Stannis actually got Mors Umber or any of the hill clans to swear allegiance before a weirwood tree. And the clansmen are relatively okay with letting Stannis's southern army get snowed in, when the clansmen were perfectly capable of just heading on ahead to join Crowfood Umber. It's possible that the clansmen want Stannis's southern knights' strength depleted, so they can get rid of Stannis AND the Boltons (with the aid of whatever Northern army you just know is hiding elsewhere in the snow).

Yup I think Stannis is a target too, the clansmen (the howling wolves as Asha portrays them) are loyal to Starks, none other. So there has to be something going on in his camp too, I think they will leave Stannis behind and head on to Winterfell too. I am curious about what they will do with the newcomers though, Theon, Jeyne, the Ironmen and the Tycho Nestoris, if they will be left behind or what. The clansmen may believe Jeyne is Arya, they were not so frequent visitors to Winterfell I think, Ned used to go to them according to Bran.

Bran and his party met one of the Liddles, and it was obvious to that Liddle who Bran was. The Liddles are with Stannis, yet nobody's mentioned to him that Brandon Stark is alive.

This points to that something is going on in Stannis camp as well, though it's confusing that the Liddles has made no attempts to find Bran or make him stay with them. They don't know he is alive any longer, just that he was alive when they met him some time back. They may be satisfied just knowing he is probably alive but that is strange to me, so I think they must have knowledge of Robbs decree and/or Rickon too. Since Alysane Mormont is with Stannis they could have been informed, she has probably been in contact with her mother so it's likely she knows about Robbs decree.

I think it's very interesting that Alys Karstark, upon fleeing Karhold, headed straight for the Wall and "the last son of Eddard Stark". There were other places a lot closer she could have gone to, but instead, she chose to head for someone who is 1) Lord Commander of the Watch, and ostensibly supposed to not interfere in matters such as what uncle is hunting what niece, and 2) the brother of the guy who killed her father. That she did this means, to me, that the North is VERY aware of Jon Snow, much more aware than they've indicated to Stannis, and they VERY much see him as a son of Eddard Stark, not just a bastard.

Ah good thinking!
I don't think the other Karstarks are in on the plot though, Cregan definitely is not, and Arnolf would not risk Harrion getting killed if he cared about him. But the other clansmen in Stannis camp is probably leaving him behind when they take off. I really hope Alysane have not blown their conspiracy to Arnolf. I don't think so however, it is suspicious enough that he joined Stannis when Harrion still was a hostage.

Moreover, during the conversation with Davos, Robett Glover started going on about how Snows can't be trusted. But we know Galbart Glover was fostering Laurence Snow, Lord Hornwood's bastard son; during the Harvest Festival, Ser Rodrik mentions that naming Laurence Snow as the new Lord of the Hornwood would make the Glovers happy. Why was Robett Glover so eager to make sure Davos, Stannis's Hand, "knew" how much the Glovers and the Northmen "hate" bastards? And Manderly tells Davos to make sure and get the direwolf so they can prove the kid's identity, but never mentions the obvious (that the Lord Commander of the Watch, Ned Stark's bastard son, who was raised with the trueborn Starks at Winterfell, could just as easily confirm the kid's identity). The Northmen seem to be dancing around talking about Jon, and there's no logical reason for them to be doing that. He's Lord Commander of the Watch, and everybody in the North knows he exists----Ned wasn't exactly hiding him.

Really good catch on the Snows! And that they don't talk about Jon too. You are making me feel much more confident about the conspiracy theory now /biggrin.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':D' /> I remember the Glovers having Larence but never did the connection to how Robett talked about the Snows...

I wonder if it's possible that the North has already decided to throw in with Jon, due to Robb's will, and Manderly wants Rickon just to save a Stark, not to put him in charge of Winterfell. Manderly told Davos he'd swear for Stannis if Davos brought him "his liege lord". But if Stannis dies, or if Rickon isn't really Manderly's liege lord . . . well, we've seen Manderly pull a fast one before.

I was thinking about this too, there must be some hidden agenda that the north has united around. Could it be that they sent Davos to get Rickon as a back-up plan? I can't imagine Rickon and Osha never turning up, that they are dead, and we know Shaggydog was at Skagos fighting a unicorn.

Ah, but is Roose technically their host? Roose doesn't own Winterfell. Roose is an intruder there. And GRRM goes to great pains to point out that Manderly, not Roose, provided the food and drink.

Good point.
Actually I now think they know that Jeyne is not Arya in fact. No one spent any time with her, no one comforted her, exept Lady Dustin, which makes me suspicious, they others seemed to hardly notice her even. I can't imagine they would let the real Arya go through the ordeal of marriage to Ramsay, and the bedding and the crying... just no. As horrible as it may sound I think they let all this happen because it was "just" Jeyne. Unless it was completely necessary for the plot to work. So they probably know that Ramsay is not lord of Winterfell and then guest rights do not apply!
Roose would not be the host if Arya was real, it would be Ramsay.

Another thought, the Liddles know Bran was alive some time ago as we know, and maybe GRRM put it there to draw focus until we were told Manderly knows about Rickon through Wex, which then kept our focus. I this a big red herring throwing us from the idea of a conspiracy to make Jon King in the North?

#9 Eyron-san、最初の

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 07:00 AM

Guest rights are intended to protect both host and guest. But I definitely like the points you bring up about the trickery that may be going on. Remember too that Lord Frey sadi that Robb had not invoked the "mayhaps" when he accepted betrothal. There definitely seems to be some grown up versions of the children's games in play.

I have too go back and look for any "mayhaps" mentioned now!
But I don't think guest right would apply if the northmen knew Arya was not real, and I think they have found this out.

I'm not saying that Jon wont become Lord of the North at some point but at the present with his ties to the Black watch, his association with Wildlings, Stannis and a new religion as well as never giving any indication that he would accept even if offered means that I doubt the North would be putting all their eggs in one basket. Plus I dont agree with 'The North' being united over anything right now. Many of the Lords are going to have different views on what the immediate future should be. Some might want a Stark return, others might want to concentrate on dealing with Winter rather than another War so soon after the last one.and a few may even prefer a change in leadership or with the Starks out of the way a chance to maneuver themselves as the prime family of the North in the future. Not every family is going to have the same goals and more importantly most families are not going to be as trusting with their plans to others to form some big plot.


All of the northmen are not in on any conspiracy, Arnolf and Cregan Karstark are surely not and we can assume there may be more. I have not mentioned Boltons bannermen since I think they are among those who will aspire for lordship from following Bolton. Some of them might turn on him though because they do not want to follow the heir but we have had too little information on them to guess I think.

If they want to gain power they would have to fight the Boltons over it, unless they get Manderly on their side, since he has the strongest military force, and then Manderly would be the leading house if they defeat Bolton.
If they want peace in the north for the winter, knowing that all the others hate Boltons (knowing they hate Ramsay even more and he is the heir and could to try to kill off Roose at any time) they know that peace is not very likely, especially since winter is coming and the war have left them with little supplies so they will all fight to survive. It would be better to side with the northmen to throw down the Boltons and unite around a Stark whoever it may be.

Most of the northmen have lost their men at war i the south (remember Theon seeing the few northmen left passing after Moat Cailin), it's Manderly (with Widows Watch), Dustin and Bolton that have any army left to speak of. Of these three Manderly is the strongest IIRC.

I don't think they have thrown all the eggs in one basket, I think they have both Rickon hidden away and Robbs decree and those options fail I think they will want to take down the Boltons anyway. They would rather have another lord. It could become difficult to come to terms on who this should be in the aftermath if the Jon or Rickon plot fails, but that does not say they will not try.

The northmen would not be aware of Jon declining Stannis' offer of Winterfell so I don't think that has any effect on their plot

Didn't Lady Dustin supply some of the food and supplies, as well ? I thought she laid on her hatred of Ned a bit thick... and I think it's telling that she understands Roose so well. She may not be as coldly calculating as he is , but she is calculating and capable of playing a long game herself. I wondered about those horns coming from the North and like the idea of another Northern army. I've never thought the Northerners would let Stannis and his zealot knights anywhere near the Winterfell Godswood . I think they'd better stay clear of the ones on the island by their camp , as well.

I think Lady Dustin is one of the best players in town, and she is probably the one they wanted as liason to Bolton for this reason.
Stannis and his queensmen would not be welcome to Winterfell I am sure! He is in for a world of trouble with the northmen in his camp.

#10 Rapsie

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 08:58 AM

Whoresbane is a particularly interesting point as he will know full well that Manderly has a fleet and greater forces at his disposal than is currently supposed by Bolton.

Yet he hasn't revealed this. I think there is indeed something of a plot going on. If Snows were despised in the North then the conversation regarding Lawrance Snow would not have played out the way it did in ACOK.

I Think Roose is aware something is going on as he seemed to me to be very afraid in the last chapters in of ADWD. The Freys appear to be clueless and treat the Northerners as if they are simpletons. Tywin Lannister for all his brutality was never subtle, and never honourable and used brutality first. However I think the North followed the Starks in following an honourable course at first, but now they have gone for guile and savagery and they are very good at it so far.

#11 fassreiter

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 09:38 AM

I really like the conspiracy theory! Great work about the 'Snows'. I never would have caught that.

#12 Rapsie

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 10:09 AM

Another thought occurs re Snows. In AGOT Benjen is surprised Jon isn't eating with his family when the King and Queen are there. He says it was Lady Stark who thought they'd be offended. Yet at every other event with Northerners Jon seems to have been in attendance and Benjen thought it was odd he hadn't been included. It seems bastards may not be as badly thought of in the North as they are in the Riverlands. Still not accepted, but not shunned. Afterall in Dorne they seem almost normal and accepted, so it may vary in each of the Kingdoms.

#13 Pliskin

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 11:36 AM

I think it depends on the father. Ned wanted to raise him as his son, so it was commonly accepted by all that he was treated like his other trueborn children. That's all.
The same for the Sand Snakes.

#14 Miriel

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 11:57 AM

The Grand Northern Lord Conspiracy Theory! I'm on board.

My two cents. When Glover and Manderley are talking to Davos about Wex, Glover says:

"Until he learns more letters we will never know half the truth ... but he came to us knowing yes and no, ..."

How did it happen that Wex met up w/ Lord Manderley anyway? If Rickon and Osha were heading towards Skagos, they would have crossed Umber lands correct? With Wex following them. Who then brought Wex to Manderly? Mors Umber maybe?

If so, more evidence of communication between Manderly and other Northern houses. And evidence that other Northern houses know it was the Bolton's who burned Winterfell.

Very interesting catches about the Ryswell scout and the status of various Snows in the North. Time for a re-read!

#15 Black Crow

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 12:26 PM

Another thought occurs re Snows. In AGOT Benjen is surprised Jon isn't eating with his family when the King and Queen are there. He says it was Lady Stark who thought they'd be offended. Yet at every other event with Northerners Jon seems to have been in attendance and Benjen thought it was odd he hadn't been included. It seems bastards may not be as badly thought of in the North as they are in the Riverlands. Still not accepted, but not shunned. Afterall in Dorne they seem almost normal and accepted, so it may vary in each of the Kingdoms.


I think that banquet was very much a one-off, with the late (and largely unlamented Catelyn Stark) getting her knickers in a twist that the Queen would be offended if Ned's by-blow was sitting within pass the salt distance - after all right from the beginning Cersei had a bit of a reputation.

#16 Young Wolf's Vanguard

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 12:27 PM

if a Stark kid shows up Bolton is screwed but for now i think efforts to dispose of Lord Leech and his "trueborn" son are divided

we have Manderly/Glover - backed up by Flint of WW and Locke (old guy is certainly with Lord Lamprey)

poor Umber uncles who may and may not be working with other houses - their goal is to get Greatjon, vengeance is postponed

Tallhart, Cerwyn, Hornwood - potentially powerful alliance but with no central figure to lead either of them, most of their men are probably retreating from south or wandering in the north disorganized

clans - those men are scary, Stannis' southern boys compared to them look like Justin Bieber compared to Mel Gibson, disorganized

Flint of FF ????????

Ryswell and Dustin probably stay with Boltons for now unless some "trueborn lord" pisses them off

chance of them all working together is unlikely but still I don't think Lord Lamprey would have provoked Freys if he didn't have ace up his sleeve (after all he is outnumbered, vulnerable and can conveniently be eliminated at Bolton's whim???

#17 Miriel

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 12:33 PM

More thoughts. Lord Manderly is a very patient man. He was able to conceal his hatred of the Freys for a long time while he waited to get his son back. The man has admirable self restraint. And yet, finally, he goes off and provokes the Freys into attacking him after the murder of the Walder Frey kid.

It is on after that.

What happened shortly before that? Theon sees the HM.

Is the HM a emissary from the second Northern army, giving Manderly the word that it is time to get things moving?

#18 Stark@heart

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 01:16 PM

I love a conspiracy. I can see the North rise again, to take back their honor from the likes of the Boltons and Theon Turncoat. Manderly is the Man. Having him kicked back eating Frey pies and talking smack, that was priceless. I see him sitting there thinking " I love it when a plan comes together " too bad they don't have cigars in the westeros.

I think they have Rickon and ShaggyDog and Osha too. Manderly will be Hand or Regent to King Rickon and Jon will stay at the Wall. I think part of the reason for his "death" was to release him from his vows but also to keep him from going to Winterfell. Jon has to be there when the Others come.

I think the Northern Lords know that Robb's will was made when he thought his trueborn brothers and his sister Arya to be dead. It was a political move to keep the Lannisters from using Sansa's claim to take Winterfell. They are rallied around Rickon. I don't think they plan on bending the knee to Stannis anytime soon either. He best get back to the Wall too.

With Rickon installed as King of the North or atleast Lord of Winterfell, word will reach LF in the Vale but will he tell Sansa? Hell No. She'll find out from Randa or the Yonces and then turn on LF(hopefully killing him as revenge for the deaths he's caused) and get out of the Vale already. This is the most plausible way for her to get back to Winterfell. The Lords of the North will welcome her and immediately start competing for her hand with the Lords of the Vale. She'll use her marriage to Tyrion to hold them off through out the long winter and Rickon has a chance to grow up until it's time for the final battle with the Others and he can bring his army north to the Wall. The North remembers so when the time comes and the Wall needs backup the brothers will be reunited.

#19 Cydal

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 01:19 PM

I remember Asha saying earlier in ADWD that "The Northmen don't blow horns". Or where the horns blowing from the inside?

#20 Cydal

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 01:21 PM

More thoughts. Lord Manderly is a very patient man. He was able to conceal his hatred of the Freys for a long time while he waited to get his son back. The man has admirable self restraint. And yet, finally, he goes off and provokes the Freys into attacking him after the murder of the Walder Frey kid.

It is on after that.

What happened shortly before that? Theon sees the HM.

Is the HM a emissary from the second Northern army, giving Manderly the word that it is time to get things moving?


I have never been a strong believer in the that the HM is Blackfish but now that I think about, The Blackfish still believed Robb to be his King and where does it make sense for him to go but the North. Was he in on it with Manderly?



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