Was the Red Wedding REALLY tactically smart?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This is an offshoot of the Walder Frey thread. I think it deserves a bit of consideration on its own.

Several people in that thread said that the Red Wedding, while reprehensible, was a smart tactic.

But was it? I get that hindsight is 20/20, but looking back, I can't imagine the Freys seeing where they've ended up and still signing on to that madness.

1. Petyr Baelish is Lord Paramount of the Trident and is nominally the lord of its most impressive castle. Not a Frey.

2. UnCat is hanging pretty much every Frey she finds, along with their riding parties. It wouldn't be quite so dire if she were only taking random cousins or grandsons, but the Brotherhood has killed several main-line Freys, including an heir, a son and a boy who was close in the line of succession.

3.

The Freys that have gone north have had the bad tendency to end up in Manderly pies or butchered in the snow.

4. With so many Freys up north with Bolton, a great part of the family's military strength is divided. More than that, they're in a land where they're unfamiliar with the climate or the culture, surrounded by northerners who'd love to chop them.

5. Roslin Frey is pregnant, and ... what? The child will be basically a prisoner at Casterly Rock, possibly growing up to be a squire with little if any major inheritance. If the Freys had stayed loyal, that kid could have inherited Riverrun AND been Lord Paramount of the Trident.

6. Speaking of Riverrun, it was given to Emmon Frey, which is rich because it's clear that Genna Lannister runs things on that end — the Lannisters basically gave Riverrun to themselves. Not to mention the fact that the Blackfish has escaped, the castle workers are probably almost all still Tully loyalists and Tom O'Sevens has infiltrated it, no doubt for some nefarious purpose.

7. Gatehouse Ami married Lancel Lannister and got Darry (again, the Lannisters basically gave it to themselves). But oh no, Lancel found religion and wants nothing to do with his slutty wife. So how will the Freys get a legitimate heir to the castle? Who inherits it if Lancel and Amerei don't have a child? (Hint: Probably a Lannister cousin, not a Frey one.) And what if Ami gets a bastard on a stableboy?

8. Just about everyone in the country now despises them and considers them untrustworthy and utterly without honor. Even guys like Jaime and Tywin are pretty disgusted with them. How will they do business with other major houses? Who'd be willing to trust them, at all, about anything? Jaime also ordered them to empty the Twins' dungeons and send most of the prisoners home or transfer them elsewhere. The Freys thus have pretty much zero leverage now against other houses who'd want to retaliate.

9. Qyburn of all people notes in the small council that the Red Wedding is seen as an abomination and that someone has to pay. The small council basically decides to wait until Walder dies and then have his heirs fight over each other, with the "losers" executed for the Red Wedding to show "justice." The Iron Throne is basically planning to scapegoat them and throw them under the bus.

So in light of all of this, can someone please explain to me what the Freys got out of the Red Wedding and why it was "worth it"? 'Cause I don't see it.

[Evamitchelle]

This is an offshoot of the Walder Frey thread. I think it deserves a bit of consideration on its own.

Several people in that thread said that the Red Wedding, while reprehensible, was a smart tactic.

But was it? I get that hindsight is 20/20, but looking back, I can't imagine the Freys seeing where they've ended up and still signing on to that madness.

1. Petyr Baelish is Lord Paramount of the Trident and is nominally the lord of its most impressive castle. Not a Frey.

2. UnCat is hanging pretty much every Frey she finds, along with their riding parties. It wouldn't be quite so dire if she were only taking random cousins or grandsons, but the Brotherhood has killed several main-line Freys, including an heir, a son and a boy who was close in the line of succession.

3.

The Freys that have gone north have had the bad tendency to end up in Manderly pies or butchered in the snow.

4. With so many Freys up north with Bolton, a great part of the family's military strength is divided. More than that, they're in a land where they're unfamiliar with the climate or the culture, surrounded by northerners who'd love to chop them.

5. Roslin Frey is pregnant, and ... what? The child will be basically a prisoner at Casterly Rock, possibly growing up to be a squire with little if any major inheritance. If the Freys had stayed loyal, that kid could have inherited Riverrun AND been Lord Paramount of the Trident.

6. Speaking of Riverrun, it was given to Emmon Frey, which is rich because it's clear that Genna Lannister runs things on that end — the Lannisters basically gave Riverrun to themselves. Not to mention the fact that the Blackfish has escaped, the castle workers are probably almost all still Tully loyalists and Tom O'Sevens has infiltrated it, no doubt for some nefarious purpose.

7. Gatehouse Amy married Lancel Lannister and got Darry (again, the Lannisters basically gave it to themselves). But oh no, Lancel found religion and wants nothing to do with his slutty wife. So how will the Freys get a legitimate heir to the castle? Who inherits it if Lancel and Amerei don't have a child? (Hint: Probably a Lannister cousin, not a Frey one.) And what if Ami gets a bastard on a stableboy?

8. Just about everyone in the country now despises them and considers them untrustworthy and utterly without honor. Even guys like Jaime and Tywin are pretty disgusted with them. How will they do business with other major houses? Who'd be willing to trust them, at all, about anything?

9. Qyburn of all people notes in the small council that the Red Wedding is seen as an abomination and that someone has to pay. The small council basically decides to wait until Walder dies and then have his heirs fight over each other, with the "losers" executed for the Red Wedding to show "justice." The Iron Throne is basically planning to scapegoat them and throw them under the bus.

So in light of all of this, can someone please explain to me what the Freys got out of the Red Wedding and why it was "worth it"? 'Cause I don't see it.

A lot of good points but there are some things I'd like to say :

2. They really couldn't have predicted that Cat would have been resurrected and turned into a hateful, revenge-seeking zombie, so I'd give them a pass on not foreseeing that one.

7. Darry would pass to Amerei and her children because her mother was a Darry (lady Mariya), she didn't get Darry from the Lannisters, she already had it. And Lady Mariya's sister, Jeyne Darry, is also married to a Frey (well, was married since Cleos was her husband) and had two sons with him. The eldest is currently Riverrun's heir but the second one could inherit Darry if for some reason or another Amerei's line couldn't. So I'd say Darry is firmly in Frey hands.

The Lannister alliance is actually quite strong even if Lancel never consummated his marriage with Amerei with Genna being married to Emmon and Daven being sworn to a Frey as well. The Bolton alliance is strong enough as well, with Fat Walda being Roose's wife. It's also not exactly predictable that Roose would let Ramsay

kill his own trueborn children because he wouldn't have the time to raise them properly himself

so Walder might expect one of his great-grand-children (Fat Walda is not a daughter but a grand-daughter right ?) as the future Warden of the North. And he had the two Walders with them as squires/wards. The main thing they've gotten out of the RW would be these two alliances I'd say, the only problem is that the Lannisters are rapidly weakening and that the Boltons don't seem in much better shape with Ramsay leading things.

Also at the time of the RW Bran, Rickon and Arya are supposed to be dead and Sansa is in the custody of the Lannisters, so killing the last remaining Starks seems more advantageous when they aren't any heirs.

But the hate they get from everyone is hugely in their disfavour it's true.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

A lot of good points but there are some things I'd like to say :

2. They really couldn't have predicted that Cat would have been resurrected and turned into a hateful, revenge-seeking zombie, so I'd give them a pass on not foreseeing that one.

7. Darry would pass to Amerei and her children because her mother was a Darry (lady Mariya), she didn't get Darry from the Lannisters, she already had it. And Lady Mariya's sister, Jeyne Darry, is also married to a Frey (well, was married since Cleos was her husband) and had two sons with him. The eldest is currently Riverrun's heir but the second one could inherit Darry if for some reason or another Amerei's line couldn't. So I'd say Darry is firmly in Frey hands.

The Lannister alliance is actually quite strong even if Lancel never consummated his marriage with Amerei with Genna being married to Emmon and Daven being sworn to a Frey as well. The Bolton alliance is strong enough as well, with Fat Walda being Roose's wife. It's also not exactly predictable that Roose would let Ramsay

kill his own trueborn children because he wouldn't have the time to raise them properly himself

so Walder might expect one of his great-grand-children (Fat Walda is not a daughter but a grand-daughter right ?) as the future Warden of the North. And he had the two Walders with them as squires/wards. The main thing they've gotten out of the RW would be these two alliances I'd say, the only problem is that the Lannisters are rapidly weakening and that the Boltons don't seem in much better shape with Ramsay leading things.

Also at the time of the RW Bran, Rickon and Arya are supposed to be dead and Sansa is in the custody of the Lannisters, so killing the last remaining Starks seems more advantageous when they aren't any heirs.

But the hate they get from everyone is hugely in their disfavour it's true.

I'll give you No. 7, I forgot that there was a double Darry connection. I stand by most of the others, though.

I absolutely DO think that Roose expects Ramsay to kill Fat Walda's children and possibly Walda herself. Might not be predictable, but it's going to happen. It also doesn't help that one of those two squire Walders is already dead, and it's highly likely that ther other Walder killed him.

I guess I should have worded it more like, "It seemed like a good idea at the time, but ..." My biggest issue is that people still think, even in hindsight, that it was the smart move and that I really can't believe. It's come back to majorly bite them in the ass on multiple fronts.

[Evamitchelle]

I'll give you No. 7, I forgot that there was a double Darry connection. I stand by most of the others, though.

I absolutely DO think that Roose expects Ramsay to kill Fat Walda's children and possibly Walda herself. Might not be predictable, but it's going to happen. It also doesn't help that one of those two Walders is already dead.

I guess I should have worded it more like, "It seemed like a good idea at the time, but ..." My biggest issue is that people still think, even in hindsight, that it was the smart move and that I really can't believe. It's come back to majorly bite them in the ass on multiple fronts.

I meant not predictable from Lord Walder's perspective. It's not exactly common for a father to encourage kinslaying among his children. But I agree that if he ever had children with Walda they'd die very quickly at Ramsay's hands.

Otherwise I agree that it seemed a better idea then than it does now. Especially with Aegon landing in Westeros and Dany who should do the same quickly as well (I can only hope).

[LuisDantas]

While the arising of Lady Blackheart was unpredictable, the hostility from the Brotherhood Without Banners was definitely to be expected.

I don't think the Frey side of the RW was very thought out, anyway. Walder Frey is over ninety, makes his decisions without the least regard for the opinions of his family, and a very emotional man that doesn't necessarily think long term much. It may even be that his faculties are failing him.

As for the alliance with the Boltons, that would (and will) bite them back anyway. If Roose Bolton's actions in ACOK and ASOS are any indication, they might as well change the house name to "North Cannonfodder". Ramsay is even worse.

They had low social standing because they were seen as opportunists that only wanted to earn money. Now they are more feared, but even less respected, and I don't think the House can really recover from that. Maybe a cadet branch could be established, but even that is dubious. The best bet for the surviving Freys that want to be respected is to quietly be absorved into other houses or, perhaps, be bold and establish a new house of their own and become models of honorability and cooperation for a couple of generations.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I meant not predictable from Lord Walder's perspective. It's not exactly common for a father to encourage kinslaying among his children. But I agree that if he ever had children with Walda they'd die very quickly at Ramsay's hands.

Otherwise I agree that it seemed a better idea then than it does now. Especially with Aegon landing in Westeros and Dany who should do the same quickly as well (I can only hope).

I know you meant from Lord Walder's perspective. And please don't mention Dany, I'm freaking sick of her. :P

[The Drunkard]

I agree, when the Frey's busted out the crossbows I just sat there slackjawed and wondering why they would resort to something like that. For a time I thought they may have been raised up by their new allies, but then as I kept reading it became obvious they gained so little from the South and lost so much from the North. I guess Walder really takes his pride seriously in his old age.

[TheFlayedMan]

Well, the Freys didn't benefit as much as they hoped, but the Boltons and Lannisters certainly did.

[LuisDantas]

Did they? I wonder about the Boltons, at least. Their cruelty is even bigger than that of the Freys, and far less disguised. Their decline ought to be beginning already.

As for the Lannisters, they have seasoned the fallout of the RW better, and they have more pressing concerns as of this moment, but I still think it was an unwise move from Tywin. Tywin did lots of bad calls during the War of the Five Kings.

[Isalie]

If they had read the book the Freys wouldve known that violating the guest right = doom. I don't know if Boltons/Lannisters have brought down the wrath of the gods upon themselves, it wasn't their home after all. Anyway the Freys were morons to do it, lap dogs will be lap dogs I suppose.

Boltons probably overplayed their hand, on the other hand with Tywin alive they might have been able to hold on to the North in spite of being despised as well as hated.

[1234567]

This is an offshoot of the Walder Frey thread. I think it deserves a bit of consideration on its own.

Several people in that thread said that the Red Wedding, while reprehensible, was a smart tactic.

But was it? I get that hindsight is 20/20, but looking back, I can't imagine the Freys seeing where they've ended up and still signing on to that madness.

As a poster said above, Walder Frey is an emotional and petty man. He looks up to Lord Tywin (and lets not forget Tywin was involved in planning this as well and has made it obvious by demanding Lannisters marry Freys) but doesn't seem to see that Tywin is feared, but was also respected because he was a good Hand for 20 years. Tywin's reputation and actions since the death of Robert are IMHO debatable and verge on to the Cersei level of idiocy at times (but that is a whole other thread topic).

Walder Frey, I think, assumes he will get the same reputation as Tywin because of the Red Wedding, but is oblivious to any other outcome or loss of reputation to his entire family.

1. Petyr Baelish is Lord Paramount of the Trident and is nominally the lord of its most impressive castle. Not a Frey.

Like most people (including Tywin I suspect) Walder Frey probably thought Littlefinger would not be able to hold the title.

2. UnCat is hanging pretty much every Frey she finds, along with their riding parties. It wouldn't be quite so dire if she were only taking random cousins or grandsons, but the Brotherhood has killed several main-line Freys, including an heir, a son and a boy who was close in the line of succession.

They could never have predicted this, but I think it will be the defining Frey and Lannister killing moment. There are several hints in the Jaime chapter in AFFC that UnCat and the BWB will take back Riverrun or at least massacre all the Freys and Lannisters within. If this is done during a gathering...say Daven's upcoming Frey wedding, so much the better.

3.

The Freys that have gone north have had the bad tendency to end up in Manderly pies or butchered in the snow.

4. With so many Freys up north with Bolton, a great part of the family's military strength is divided. More than that, they're in a land where they're unfamiliar with the climate or the culture, surrounded by northerners who'd love to chop them.

Yeah, the North is always honourable....under the Starks. The other Northman have shown a ruthless streak that the Freys should have been aware of given Karstark and Bolton. In fact Bolton is the one I am most surprised about as he seems to have underestimated the other Northern Lords (until those Winterfell chapters in ADWD).

Given the Frey proximity to the North, they should have realised this was not a sensible idea. Certainly the should not have sent half their forces North. To their South are people that detest them. Personally I think they are revelling in their success and completely failing to see the pattern of Freys dropping like flies around the Kingdom.

5. Roslin Frey is pregnant, and ... what? The child will be basically a prisoner at Casterly Rock, possibly growing up to be a squire with little if any major inheritance. If the Freys had stayed loyal, that kid could have inherited Riverrun AND been Lord Paramount of the Trident.

I don't think they realised that Roslin's child wouldn't get Riverrun. I think Tywin shafted them there. They are still expecting if it's a girl it can be married to Eammon's grandson. I don't think they will be pleased to hear Roslin is to be a prisoner at the Rock.

6. Speaking of Riverrun, it was given to Emmon Frey, which is rich because it's clear that Genna Lannister runs things on that end — the Lannisters basically gave Riverrun to themselves. Not to mention the fact that the Blackfish has escaped, the castle workers are probably almost all still Tully loyalists and Tom O'Sevens has infiltrated it, no doubt for some nefarious purpose.

Yep. This is probably going to bite them in the ass horribly.

7. Gatehouse Ami married Lancel Lannister and got Darry (again, the Lannisters basically gave it to themselves). But oh no, Lancel found religion and wants nothing to do with his slutty wife. So how will the Freys get a legitimate heir to the castle? Who inherits it if Lancel and Amerei don't have a child? (Hint: Probably a Lannister cousin, not a Frey one.) And what if Ami gets a bastard on a stableboy?

She would still get Darry, but the Frey's were pissed off about Lancel leaving her. I do think they should have begun to realise that their deal with Tywin has gone South.

8. Just about everyone in the country now despises them and considers them untrustworthy and utterly without honor. Even guys like Jaime and Tywin are pretty disgusted with them. How will they do business with other major houses? Who'd be willing to trust them, at all, about anything? Jaime also ordered them to empty the Twins' dungeons and send most of the prisoners home or transfer them elsewhere. The Freys thus have pretty much zero leverage now against other houses who'd want to retaliate.

I would disagree about Tywin, as he helped arrange the whole thing. He didn't seem to mind, although Jaime and Tyrion were disgusted. Indeed the Frey's didn't know Tywin would die and Tywin would have handled that differently. Jaime has effectively given them more enemies in the countryside and made it clear that even the remaining Lannisters don't support them.

9. Qyburn of all people notes in the small council that the Red Wedding is seen as an abomination and that someone has to pay. The small council basically decides to wait until Walder dies and then have his heirs fight over each other, with the "losers" executed for the Red Wedding to show "justice." The Iron Throne is basically planning to scapegoat them and throw them under the bus.

Indeed, I think the smallfolk will turn on them completely in the Riverlands if they have the chance (hide the BWB etc). For the Lannisters the situation doesn't look good either as the more information comes out about "Jaime Lannister sends his regards" and "The Reyens of Castamere" being played at the RW as the Young Wolf was slaughterd will turn the smallfolk even more against them. As for the Freys involved with the RW, I am amazed they don't see that the Lannisters will use them as scapegoats at some points. I suspect though that those involved in the RW will blame the Freys that actually weren't there.

So in light of all of this, can someone please explain to me what the Freys got out of the Red Wedding and why it was "worth it"? 'Cause I don't see it.

They got to be petty and vengeful and revel in a very shortsighted victory. It is begining to turn to ashes for them and hopefully it will only get worse in TWOW.

[Winterfell is Burning]

It was never a good idea, because it was obvious that it would taint the name of the house forever, even if they would win the war.

[James Nicholls]

I agree with all of Apple's points, but I think the Frey's weren't trusted even before they did this. But I do hope they get their comeuppance soon. If as someone suggested UnCat managed to return the favour of the Red Wedding so much the better.

[Ser Pink of Floyd]

Its about as smart as killing the King who you swore to protect, and having a King-slayer rep forever afterwards. The Freys will never loose this reputation. They tossed the hospitality rulebook into The Trident when they butchered Robb & his party. They say that 'The North remebers' but I think all of Westeros wont forget this.

What did they get out of it? Repuation aside, nothing. They stand to loose everything however and short of a christmas miracle, I dont see their line surviving outside of marriage (e.g. Roslin Frey) by the end of the series.

[Ser Lepus]

Yes, Tywin masterfully outplayed the Freys...people that didn´t betray their lieges, like the Manderlys, have regained their position without dishonor and with only a mere verbal show of loyalty to the crown, while others who sided with the Lannister only after the defeat, like the Brackens, have been rewarded. while the Freys, who have lost their honor, have received little reward and have to fight for the Lannister without hope of future reward because they have no other options (anybody else hates them and will destroy them at the least opportunity).

They have gotten some marriage alliances...with people who hate and despise them and will teach their children to hate the Freys, they have gotten Riverrun and Darry, but those where gifts for Genna and Kevan Lannister, not to the Freys; Genna, who rules her household, is a Lannister to the core, and her children are loyal to the Lannisters (and it´s heavily hinted they maybe aren´t her Frey hunsband´s offspring, but bastards), and Lancel descendants (even if he really were to marry Gatehouse Amy and become lord of Darry, which we know won´t happen) would be Lannisters, and Kevan is trying to reinforce the Darry connection while hiding the Frey´s...

The Freys have lost the opportunity to have Roslin´s baby as heir of Riverrun, they have lost the opportunity to have one of them as hunsband to Arya (we know Ramsay has married a fake Arya, but the Freys don´t know), and Ramsay Snow has been legitimized, which means that even if Fat Walda isn´t killed, her children have little chance of becoming lords...

The funny thing is Tywin is the one who made the Westerlings and Spicers trick Robb into "dishonoring" Jeyne, and preventing the Freys from having one of their girls as queen of the North...but they are stuck fighting for the Lannisters with little hope of reward...

As I said, Tywin masterfully outplayed them....

[Greyjoy the Reaver]

Yes, Tywin masterfully outplayed the Freys...people that didn´t betray their lieges, like the Manderlys, have regained their position without dishonor and with only a mere verbal show of loyalty to the crown, while others who sided with the Lannister only after the defeat, like the Brackens, have been rewarded. while the Freys, who have lost their honor, have received little reward and have to fight for the Lannister without hope of future reward because they have no other options (anybody else hates them and will destroy them at the least opportunity).

They have gotten some marriage alliances...with people who hate and despise them and will teach their children to hate the Freys, they have gotten Riverrun and Darry, but those where gifts for Genna and Kevan Lannister, not to the Freys; Genna, who rules her household, is a Lannister to the core, and her children are loyal to the Lannisters (and it´s heavily hinted they maybe aren´t her Frey hunsband´s offspring, but bastards), and Lancel descendants (even if he really were to marry Gatehouse Amy and become lord of Darry, which we know won´t happen) would be Lannisters, and Kevan is trying to reinforce the Darry connection while hiding the Frey´s...

The Freys have lost the opportunity to have Roslin´s baby as heir of Riverrun, they have lost the opportunity to have one of them as hunsband to Arya (we know Ramsay has married a fake Arya, but the Freys don´t know), and Ramsay Snow has been legitimized, which means that even if Fat Walda isn´t killed, her children have little chance of becoming lords...

The funny thing is Tywin is the one who made the Westerlings and Spicers trick Robb into "dishonoring" Jeyne, and preventing the Freys from having one of their girls as queen of the North...but they are stuck fighting for the Lannisters with little hope of reward...

As I said, Tywin masterfully outplayed them....

Agreed Tywin basically talked the Frey's into bringing dishonor onto their house with no real compensation for it. Not very shrewd of Lord Walder to agre to this.

[Bourne]

Walder Frey got to avenge his honor. But who cares if it was a tactically smart move for the Freys? It was a good move for Tywin, and that's all that matters.

[Slurms McKenzie]

The funny thing is Tywin is the one who made the Westerlings and Spicers trick Robb into "dishonoring" Jeyne, and preventing the Freys from having one of their girls as queen of the North...but they are stuck fighting for the Lannisters with little hope of reward...

As I said, Tywin masterfully outplayed them....

How did they trick Robb into 'dishonouring' Jeyne? Surely, Robb knew what he was doing?

[Ser Lepus]

How did they trick Robb into 'dishonouring' Jeyne? Surely, Robb knew what he was doing?

Uncle Spicer and her mom Lady Westerling (acting under Tywin´s instructions) told Jeyne to go to Robb´s bed and console and seduce him, taking advantage of the fact that he was severely depressed after learning of Bran and Rickon "deaths"; Jeyne honestly thought that she was doing that in order to become queen of the North, but her mother was acting under Tywin´s orders, and that´s the reason she gave Moon´s Tea to Jeyne, so she wouldn´t conceive a heir for Robb...

Tywin told Tyrion something like: "Jeyne Westerling carry the blood of the upstart Spicers, Robb carry the blood of the too-honorable-for-his-own-sake Eddard Stark...I knew she would try to grab herself a king, and that the son of Eddard Stark would feel duty-bound to marry her afterwards" (not the exact words, but something like that).

Tywin made Tommen sign a royal pardon for the Westerlings and the Spicers, and gave them the Castamere and other castles, even before the Red Wedding, and later, when Jaime met Jeyne´s mother we learn that he had promised good marriages -including a Lannister girl for the Westerling heir -for all their young.

[seanbean4lyfe]

How did they trick Robb into 'dishonouring' Jeyne? Surely, Robb knew what he was doing?

hahaha doesn't make it any less foolish on Robb's part

oh Robb