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Repercussions of Bowen Marsh's betrayel


David C. Hunter

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Heres something thats been bothering me ever since I finished ADWD.

Jon Snow gets betrayed by his Black Brothers, in particular Bowen Marsh.

How is this going to play out? What is Bowen Marsh planning on accomplishing after this?

Look, Jon Snow hadn't even begun to march South yet, but when he gives his speech and ask if anyone wants to come with him, all the Wildlings are behind him with a roar. It reminded me of how the mountain described their reasons for marching of winterfell with Stannis.

The Wildlings are obeying the Nights watch and their rules mainly because they have nowhere to go, no food, etc, but if they truly wanted to they could easily overtake Castle Black and the rest of the castles. At the very least they outnumber the black brothers 5-1. I understand they Crows are better trained, but the wildlings would still overtake them pretty easily especially now that Tormund is there.

What I dont get is the way Bowen Marsh did this. They didnt do this secretly or in the dark. They did it in front of a lot of black brothers, queens men and wildlings. You cant just kill a lord commander and expect everyone to fall in line. technically speaking queen selsye can have then imprisoned. The nights watch brothers who werent savvy to the plot may turn on them or maybe even the wildlings will turn on the traitor watchmen. I mean...A majority of the wildlings respect Jon, hence why everyone agreed to march with Jon when he was going to march South.

So basically I figured Bowen Marsh didnt think of the repercussions of this betrayel. He and his fellow conspirators will be imprisoned, executed or killed in a wildling uprising.

What does Bowen Marsh think Tormund will do when he sees this? Will the Giant calm down any more now? Who the hell fears Bowen Marsh?

Again, the wildlings outnumber the crows 5-1 and seem to be loyal to Jon to an extent and many have pledged themselves to 'HIM' not the nights watch(though many have done this too).

I personally think either of these may happen.

1.) Queen Selsye will imprison Bowen Marsh and gang and try to R'hillor up the Nights Watch

2.) The Wildlings with Tormund at the helm will start an uprising at the wall and will overthrow the Nights Watch.

These are just ideas, but I do not see Dolorus Edd, Val, Tormund or Melisandre just standing by and letting this happen.

What does Bowen Marsh expect to do? "I have killed the bastard lord commander. I am the new commander and you will all do as I say. Ok, everyone who is a wildling please jump off the wall in an orderly fashion."

What do yall think? How do yall see the immediate repercussions of Bowen Marsh's betrayel?

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I personally just think Bowen Marsh and co are just idiots. But they probably were thinking that they could use the confusion of everybody watching Wun Wun, and thought they could off the LC before people noticed what was happening. And that this was a the best, last second, idea they had - before Jon left the Wall and they lost access to him.

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Much as I like Jon Snow, he has displayed repeated disloyalty to the Watch and their common cause, atleast from a spectator's point of view. I'm not saying I like that he got stabbed, but Bowen Marsh and the others only did what they thought best for the Wall.

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in short, think that the english expression for what is going to happen is that shit is going to hit the fan.

most certainly! how strong is Selyse's host at the Wall? My notion is that the wildling host is far stronger and greater, and that they will avenge Jon. Melissandre will join their cause, and survive,

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It depends somewhat on why Marsh ended killing Jon then and there. That many men approving his suggestion to avenge Stannis and march on Winterfell, should have been a sign that Selyse and Shireen will continue to have friends at the Wall. Some among the NW, many among the wildlings. Tormund and his friends won't stand idly by and let Marsh & Co. consolidate, or even grasp the power they may now try to seize.

If Stannis is truly dead, then Melisandre, Selyse and Shireen will be eventually be handed over to the Boltons. Since they have no intention to die, I don't see any reason for them to be friendly with the new regime of the NW.

Surely, Marsh's assassination was not triggered by Jon's ultimate betrayal. They mainly wanted to prevent him from going along with his stupid ranging to Hardhome and his plan to invite all the wildlings to the Realm (including scum like the Weeper and his ilk). But stabbing him to death where everyone could see it happening can't be what he planned. Possibly he wanted him removed before he could go along with his ultimate betrayal, but I don't see a chance for the conspirators to consolidate power after they succeeded.

And I don't buy the theory that Selyse or even Melisandre might have been involved in this. Not after Jon called everybody to arms to avenge Stannis after he learned about his death.

The Prologue of TWoW might very well be written from Bowen's POV, depicting his slow, painful burning at the hands of Melisandre.

As for the general repercussions, both Jon and Bowen destroyed the Night's Watch with their actions. Jon all but disbanded it by twisting its purpose (although he might have actually only tried to restore its original purpose), and Marsh's assassination bereft the Night's Watch of any aspiration that it was fit to defend mankind against its ultimate foe.

You can't defend Westeros or mankind as a whole against the evil ice-demons with thieves, murderers, and rapers.

Thus my verdict is: The Night's Watch died with Jon Snow. It will not rise with him, when he is resurrected. Let it stay dead. We don't need it anymore. The Realm has the wildlings now, Stannis and his Northmen (if they are not dead), Melisandre, and a broken tree boy with crow teacher. That should suffice, until Daenerys comes.

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I think Bowen Marsh (and his fellow Nights Watchmen who stabbed Jon) are helping Jon fake his death. This frees up Jon to leave in search of his sister. Mel is in on the fake death as she wants control of the wall and will be able to control the next Lord Commander. Jon has every intention of returning to his post once Arya is safe. Jon even eventually secures Winterfell with his wildling army and is there when he hears that Mel foolishly attempted to take on the Others on her own (and what forces she has) and allows the creatures through the wall. Also, Arya eventually makes her way to Winterfell and re-unites with Jon as their nights are filled with horror fighting the Others.

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Yeah, well, he apparently tried to do that. I realized years ago what 'realms of men' might have meant originally. But it's still an interpretation - remember, back when the Night's Watch was founded, there were many realms of men in Westeros, so technically the oath might only refer to the realms of men south of the Wall, marking and declaring all the men who continued to live north of the Wall as enemies and potential servants/allies of the Others.

The Wall did not went up in a day, and the wildlings of old most likely had years to decide to fit into the 'southron' society. They chose not to, and they and their descendants paid the price.

And Jon failed to take his people with him, he failed to explain his interpretation of the oath to anyone. So they ended up killing him. And I say Marsh killed the Watch with Jon. The assassination in itself shows that the Night's Watch is neither fit nor willing to wage the war against the Others. That much is now evident.

And I don't see much potential for Marsh's gang to protect themselves (or the Watch) against repercussions from the wildlings or Stannis's men. Nor do I think that any influential man among the wildlings or in Stannis's camp (including Stannis himself) will deem Marsh's Night's Watch useful anymore. Both Stannis and the wildlings went along with all of that because they honored and respected Jon. Both Stannis and Tormund are Jon's friends. They won't deal with his murderers.

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There is a mysterious one hour conversation between Jon and Tormund. Jon's decision to go to Hardhome made some sense with the Watch's vow. Going south to Winterfell made no sense especially in light of the countless times Jon declined to go to Winterfell. He may have done it as part of a ruse. Without any knowledge of what he spoke to Tormund about in the subsequent hour after his lieutenants left him, we can only speculate about things like glamours, whether he's actually dead, whether it was all a plot to make him appear dead. Tormund knows more than anyone else.

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Heres something thats been bothering me ever since I finished ADWD.

Jon Snow gets betrayed by his Black Brothers, in particular Bowen Marsh.

How is this going to play out? What is Bowen Marsh planning on accomplishing after this?

Look, Jon Snow hadn't even begun to march South yet, but when he gives his speech and ask if anyone wants to come with him, all the Wildlings are behind him with a roar. It reminded me of how the mountain described their reasons for marching of winterfell with Stannis.

The Wildlings are obeying the Nights watch and their rules mainly because they have nowhere to go, no food, etc, but if they truly wanted to they could easily overtake Castle Black and the rest of the castles. At the very least they outnumber the black brothers 5-1. I understand they Crows are better trained, but the wildlings would still overtake them pretty easily especially now that Tormund is there.

What I dont get is the way Bowen Marsh did this. They didnt do this secretly or in the dark. They did it in front of a lot of black brothers, queens men and wildlings. You cant just kill a lord commander and expect everyone to fall in line. technically speaking queen selsye can have then imprisoned. The nights watch brothers who werent savvy to the plot may turn on them or maybe even the wildlings will turn on the traitor watchmen. I mean...A majority of the wildlings respect Jon, hence why everyone agreed to march with Jon when he was going to march South.

So basically I figured Bowen Marsh didnt think of the repercussions of this betrayel. He and his fellow conspirators will be imprisoned, executed or killed in a wildling uprising.

What does Bowen Marsh think Tormund will do when he sees this? Will the Giant calm down any more now? Who the hell fears Bowen Marsh?

Again, the wildlings outnumber the crows 5-1 and seem to be loyal to Jon to an extent and many have pledged themselves to 'HIM' not the nights watch(though many have done this too).

I personally think either of these may happen.

1.) Queen Selsye will imprison Bowen Marsh and gang and try to R'hillor up the Nights Watch

2.) The Wildlings with Tormund at the helm will start an uprising at the wall and will overthrow the Nights Watch.

These are just ideas, but I do not see Dolorus Edd, Val, Tormund or Melisandre just standing by and letting this happen.

What does Bowen Marsh expect to do? "I have killed the bastard lord commander. I am the new commander and you will all do as I say. Ok, everyone who is a wildling please jump off the wall in an orderly fashion."

What do yall think? How do yall see the immediate repercussions of Bowen Marsh's betrayel?

I know I keep saying that I will do this in my blog, but I have to chime in again on this one. Jon was doing the right thing, but the main problem was that he was all alone.....did you ever see anyone but Tormund in public, or even in the meetings with Bowen Marsh support him? He needed the older Rangers and Marsh to get it...

But, and it is not an uncommon theme : the men of the NW, like Marsh could not stomach turning an enemy into an ally. It would be most difficult for the most experienced men, as in any world, Jon needed the young, the smart and loyal members who were of his rank so to speak, the younger generation that did not exist, to support him. There was no one like that....even worse Jon was well liked by many wildlings even though he had betrayed them, they know what he is, and even though The Halfhand did tell him what to do, and I believe he chose Jon for that mission for just that reason, many were was doubtful. Jon also said Marsh was different since being wounded from the attacks from the Wights and the Others.

If you watched Battlestar Galactica, there was a coup, and people of all ages could not stomach partnering with the Cylons because they destroyed everything. One soldier even says to Adama when the coup ends he respects him, but could not stomach an alliance after everything. So, as I said it is not an on common theme: change is hard especially when personal losses are so heavy and traumatic.

Jon was prepared to break his vows, leave his command and go after Bolton. Someone said that some were afraid Bolton would come take the Wall, but Roose Bolton, would never allow that. We also know that deep down Jon still wanted to avenge his father, brothers, and kill the Lannisters. I think he said that to Sam in the yard before he was sent away.

But Marsh and whomever was part of that moment either were killed immediately by Wun Wun or Ghost was let out by Melissandre or himself and did some damage. Either way I think the NW is finished, and will no longer be what it was. Tormund, Val etc..will kill the murderers and take control as Jon kept the peace. But they will stay as they know The Others are coming and they had to be stopped. Melissandre was the only one left with any kind of power, due to her sorcery, to maybe affect an outcome ....oh and bring Jon back after he has been encased in ice and been Ghost. He needed to learn how powerful he is, so maybe when he dreamt he was encased in ice, maybe he will be, to preserve his body. I don't know, but the NW is done, killing Jon will do the opposite of what Bowen wanted.

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Jon was basically going to desert and break his oath.

Strictly speaking, Bowen Marsh was in plain right to kill a deserter.

But still, Queen Selyse and the Wildlings will not like it...

He wasn't really going to desert the Wall, deserting is when you leave with no intention of returning. Jon was planning on coming back, he never said lets go kick some Ramsey ass, and then set up shop in Winterfell.

So I guess if anything you could say Bowen had Jon killed because he was going to take part in matters of the realm. But I wouldn't say he was planning on becoming a deserter, because he was coming back. I mean your allowed to leave the Wall as long as you plan on coming back (some examples are Benjen, Yoren, Sam etc). Well who gave all those people permission to leave? The Lord Commander so why can't Jon leave with his own permission.

If anything I think Jon could have justified marching against Ramsey. I believe he could have done this by saying he had no choice, because Ramsey would have marched against the Wall, because Jon didn't give him what he wanted (Arya, Reek, etc). Jon didn't have what Ramsey wanted, even if Jon chose to give it to him. So if Jon said he marched on Ramsey to save the Nights Watch, and the NW is the only thing to save the realm. So therefore what Jon was going to do was justified because the NW puts the realm first, and to save the realm he must first save the NW.

So had Bowen Marsh not done what he did I think Jon could have convinced the Watch and anyone else for that matter, that he was not breaking his oath, in fact he was actually KEEPING it by marching against Ramsey Bolton at Winterfell.

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Jon had it all coming from his very first chapter. Melisandre practically told him how he would die. Jon had also his friends, and those he all sent away. He sent of Samwell, he sent off Aemon, he sent off even Pyp and Grenn, which made no sense at all to me. Not from the POV of a man who had to build himself a power base to counter any attempts of his enemies to plot against him, or assassinate him.

Instead he surrounded himself with men he looked down upon at heart, men whose opinions and idea he grew to resent, but whom he still deemed too craven to move against him. He could have seen the daggers coming, and he shares at least part of the blame. Bowen Marsh was never his friend, that he could have known from the beginning. Although the man was no Lannister loyalist from the beginning, he plotted with Thorne to make Slynt the next Lord Commander to please Lord Tywin. And there is no sign whatsoever his view on the politics of the Realm did change during ADwD.

And sending away the few competent guys in his camp - Dywen, Dolorous Edd etc. - to man the other castles was not that good for his cause, either. The old guard around Marsh and Yarwyck had every opportunity to plot, since their circles no longer included any Snow-friendly, or at least Snow-neutral people. They were cravens, had they feared their conspiracy could be brought to light, they would have done nothing. But so...

As for a ruse and stuff: It is plainly in the text that the talk with Tormund laid out the course of the meeting and the speech to inflame the hearts of the men to avenge Stannis. And I don't see any way to re-interpret Jon's death scene, either. The man gets stabbed multiple times before he drops to the ground, and I don't thing the assassins stopped after the fourth dagger...

Jon is dead, he might be resurrected, or 'healed' if that's what can be done to a body who most likely is not going to rot in the near future, but he is obviously dead, in my opinion. If not, if he somehow was only most severely wounded, he will become another Bran, and I don't want to see him going down that road. Make him some kind R'hllor zombie, but not another cripple.

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I'm glad Bowen Marsh betrayed Jon. The kid was about to break his oath and take an army down to Winterfell to fight! I'm sure Jon will somehow survive this (Melisandre will take care of that) and then he'll be thankful he didn't have the chance to march south. Bowen Marsh may get away with the stabbing at first, because there's the chance nobody saw him do it in middle of the chaos.

Queen Selyse will do nothing, this will be dealt with between the brothers. And she's not so fond of Jon anyways.

The thing I'm most excited about is the fact that without Jon, the alliance between the Watch and the Free People is done.

Will a new war broke out now south of the Wall?

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Remember, to all persons at the wall who acknowledged Stannis as king, Shireen is now the queen because word has arrived that Stannis is dead. Jon eludes to his death as believable when he says to himself that he should have spoken to the queen first before everyone at the assembly hall.

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I think there are four things that could of happened here and I really am not sure which one happened

1. Marsh and his men had really no plan and just killed them selfs for the watch. This dosent add up to me because they had to know there actons would destory the watch and plunge it in to all out warfare between the brothers, wildling and queens men. I dont think this is what happened

2. A really powful skinchanger took over them and made them do it. I am leaning torwards this one. Makes cents with the tears of marsh and the actions of the other ones

3. It was faked some how. Either it was a plan by Jon or Mel and we reallly dont know whats going on. I cant see jon putting wun wun in danger so It had to be with out jons ok. I think you can mix this with 2 and there are many posablitys

4. We are just seeing a plan one of a many stages of a attack. This would mean jon has almost no suport by most of the NW members. Most of the wildlings are still in the shild hall and the door could have been locked after jon left. Then lit on fire killing most of the best fighters of the wildlings.This is kind of like the Red Wedding 2. This would be the one I would least like to see happen, but it seems to be GRRMs style. This would leave most of the Night watch intacted. I see Mel somehow saving Jons Wolf with him inside. Not sure if his body surives thought.

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Marsh and Co. didn't exactly display Olympic levels of forethought. Really, if they'd actually wanted to get rid of Jon and the Wildlings, the smartest course of action would have been to let him go. Let Jon wander off into the snowy wilderness toward Winterfell (and the Boltons), preferably with a large wildling complement. While they're gone, kill or imprison or throw out any remaining wildlings. Hope that Jon and his men die in the effort and if they come back, then kill them. Trying to pull a Caesar is just so bush league, you know? That's actually what makes me think there was "more to it" than just Bowen Marsh and a few guys going rogue or acting off the cuff.

Myself, I think, depending on the actual circumstances, Bowen and his conspirators (if in truth it was a conspiracy) aren't long for this world. They're surrounded by wildlings (including, uh, Wun Wun), queen's men and other Night's Watch men who are still loyal to Jon or, at least, don't like the idea of two successive Lord Commanders going down by assassination.

ETA: Really, that entire chapter is just bizarre. The letter and its writer, who may or may not be Ramsay. The missing block of time when Jon and Tormund spoke. Jon's behavior in general. His decision to "rescue his sister" from Winterfell when the letter plainly said that she WASN'T at Winterfell (this is the one that gets me and yet I so rarely see it discussed — why rescue "Arya" from Ramsay when Ramsay no longer has her?). Jon's rough treatment of Ghost. I have an idea of how it'll all turn out, but that's all it is, an idea. But there's something rotten in Denmark about all of it.

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I don't think Bowen's actions need so much thinking. He and his people were not pleased with Jon's decisions, and I saw this coming since Melisandre told Jon about the knives in the dark. But they're not the smartest people in the Watch, so I don't think there was a conspiracy.

I think he was crying because he felt he was doing wrong, but he wasn't doing it out of ambition or hate. He was doing it because he thought Jon was not good for the Watch and he needed to be killed. And I don't think they gave so much thinking to that, they just decided to kill Jon when he announced he wanted to march on Winterfell.

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I don't think Bowen's actions need so much thinking. He and his people were not pleased with Jon's decisions, and I saw this coming since Melisandre told Jon about the knives in the dark. But they're not the smartest people in the Watch, so I don't think there was a conspiracy.

I think he was crying because he felt he was doing wrong, but he wasn't doing it out of ambition or hate. He was doing it because he thought Jon was not good for the Watch and he needed to be killed. And I don't think they gave so much thinking to that, they just decided to kill Jon when he announced he wanted to march on Winterfell.

I think a lot of people, maybe even most people, figured something would happen when Melisandre started talking about "daggers in the dark."

Your interpretation of events is how they appear to be at face value, yes. But I don't think it's a simple "face value" situation.

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