Repercussions of Bowen Marsh's betrayel

[Mumatil]

@ Arya Targaryen

I think it is more likely that the Freys led by Ser Hosteen plunged into the frozen water of the lakes, since the weight of the armored knights and horses would be too much. Manderly was coming behind the Frey force and he saw his opportunity and took the Frey force in the rear pushing the Frey-Bolton forces into the lake. Wyman than hatched a plan with Stannis, he came back to Winterfell with Stannis's sword, saying that Stannis is dead and his forces defeated. That would be the reason for the letter. Then, in a Trojan horse fashion, Stannis forces reach Winterfell in the dead of night when the Boltons and their cohorts are asleep, drunk and offguard. Manderly's men open the gates for them and Stannis forces storm Winterfell taking bolton by surprise.

:devil:

I hope it happens something like this.

[Arya Targaryen]

@ Arya Targaryen

I think it is more likely that the Freys led by Ser Hosteen plunged into the frozen water of the lakes, since the weight of the armored knights and horses would be too much. Manderly was coming behind the Frey force and he saw his opportunity and took the Frey force in the rear pushing the Frey-Bolton forces into the lake. Wyman than hatched a plan with Stannis, he came back to Winterfell with Stannis's sword, saying that Stannis is dead and his forces defeated. That would be the reason for the letter. Then, in a Trojan horse fashion, Stannis forces reach Winterfell in the dead of night when the Boltons and their cohorts are asleep, drunk and offguard. Manderly's men open the gates for them and Stannis forces storm Winterfell taking bolton by surprise.

:agree: at least this is what I hope for. But all of this doesn't explain what happened to Mance. If I had to choose between Stannis and Mance, which one should be alive, my vote would be on Mance. Though I hope for both. And I totally see the Manderleys attacking the Freys outside Wf, and coming back to say they have beaten and killed Stannis. My only issue is that I don't see Stannis willingly giving up his "magic sword", not even as a part of a greater plan.

[Tini]

My impression is that Stannis is not really that attached to his sword, despite its magic. And he would not be giving it up... he'd just use it in an unexpected fashion.

[alienarea]

I am not sure that Stannis' trap works as designed. It is a desperate gamble because he doesn't have a lot of options: his force is to small to attack or siege Winterfell, and they are starving and freezing. Also, IIRC, he doesn't know that Manderley might turn. I have a feeling he could be at the Godswood with Theon and Asha when the Freys arrive.

So maybe the ice breaks when Manderley's forces step on it behind the Freys and the battle starts. Something goes wrong at the Godswood, Asha killing Stannis? Asha and Theon escape to the wall, the Freys drown. Manderleys attack Stannis troops and defeat them. Manderley returns with Stannis sword to plot another day.

[Azor Azai]

OK here goes...Marsh is acting under Mel's influence. She's realized that with Stannis' death, that he is not TPwwP, and has the "Eureka" moment thinking back to her wanting to see her prince in the fire but only seeing "Snow", importantly capitalized to tell us it's Jon, though through her preconceived notion she is blinded to the truth. She now realizes what The Big R is trying to tell her and arranges for Job to be assassinated, so she can raise him up as the TPwwP.

She's the only one who has the power to pull it off, Selyse has no power, and truly is merely Queen Regent at best, as Stannis has no direct male heir, making Shireen his heir. But but but north of Dorne, women don't typically inherit do they? It passes to a brother, an uncle, a male cousin, no? Nevermind that Selyse doesn't wipe her ass unless it's done in the manner prescribed by Mel, she's a puppet caught in religious fervor.

Marsh is a chump, a bean counter and ignorant (like most) of the original purpose of the Wall. His motivation for conspiring is plain, but there's no way he's the leader of the conspiracy. Maybe he's the patsy, to be given up the moment the act is complete along with his NW cronies as a sop to the Wildlings good behavior. Though he, of course, doesn't know this...perhaps he's been told they will expel the Wildlings after Jon's murder.

[Ser Pollo Loco]

Daughters inherit before uncles in the north at least, im pretty sure its same in the other kingdoms

[Melifeather]

@ Arya Targaryen

I think it is more likely that the Freys led by Ser Hosteen plunged into the frozen water of the lakes, since the weight of the armored knights and horses would be too much. Manderly was coming behind the Frey force and he saw his opportunity and took the Frey force in the rear pushing the Frey-Bolton forces into the lake. Wyman then hatched a plan with Stannis, he came back to Winterfell with Stannis's sword, saying that Stannis is dead and his forces defeated. That would be the reason for the letter. Then, in a Trojan horse fashion, Stannis forces reach Winterfell in the dead of night when the Boltons and their cohorts are asleep, drunk and offguard. Manderly's men open the gates for them and Stannis forces storm Winterfell taking bolton by surprise.

:devil:

I hope it happens something like this.

:agree: at least this is what I hope for. But all of this doesn't explain what happened to Mance. If I had to choose between Stannis and Mance, which one should be alive, my vote would be on Mance. Though I hope for both. And I totally see the Manderleys attacking the Freys outside Wf, and coming back to say they have beaten and killed Stannis. My only issue is that I don't see Stannis willingly giving up his "magic sword", not even as a part of a greater plan.

I am not sure that Stannis' trap works as designed. It is a desperate gamble because he doesn't have a lot of options: his force is to small to attack or siege Winterfell, and they are starving and freezing. Also, IIRC, he doesn't know that Manderley might turn. I have a feeling he could be at the Godswood with Theon and Asha when the Freys arrive.

So maybe the ice breaks when Manderley's forces step on it behind the Freys and the battle starts. Something goes wrong at the Godswood, Asha killing Stannis? Asha and Theon escape to the wall, the Freys drown. Manderleys attack Stannis troops and defeat them. Manderley returns with Stannis sword to plot another day.

Ice is a lot stronger than you would think and continues to "grow" if the temperatures remain or get colder. In the last 6 weeks I've been ice fishing in northern MN and the ice was 27-30 inches thick with over 10,000 ice houses, pickup trucks, cars, ATV's plus fishermen. I do have my own suspicions that the pink letter is not factual, but I also suspect that Stannis will not succeed for long. Sure, I would love it if Stannis finds a way to defeat Ramsay or Roose, but unless the temperatures are not really all that cold, then ice should be able to suppport thousands of men in armor and their horses. GRRM does suggest Stannis is up to something regarding the ground and it will be interesting to learn what he comes up with.

[Set_Gecko]

I think Nights Watch has shown itself unfit to defend the realm against the real threat. NW will get disbanded, thanks to their little numbers and wildlings uprising after Jon's death. Wildlings may not see Jon as their direct commander in their hearts yet, but killing him clearly sends a message "we'd rather you starved to death than letting you through", so I can't see any other way than wildlings taking control of castle black and the remaining castles (especially the ruined ones), present Nights Watch brothers joining them (under the pressure of their numbers and the dishonor that was dealt to NW by Bowen Marsh's actions). No, actually I see something else....

Worst Case Scenario: now let's consider the logistics of that situation and how the conspirators could have used it to their advantage. At the moment when Jon is stabbed, most of the wildlings host is down in the basement feasting and drinking themselves to death. The only direct witness is Wun Wun. Most (or all) of the NW brothers pulled out from the feast. Now, let some of them hold off Wun Wun (or deal with him together), after - barricade the exits from the dungeon and set it on fire. Run for queen selyse, who doesn't like Jon (that last chapter started with her urging Jon to let wildlings on Hardhome die, then she remarked on how she will hope for a more submissive Commander once Jon never comes back), present this to her as a big R'hllor sacrifice, she won't mind. You might ask, why would NW brothers follow the orders of conspirators, but you already know the answer. Same reason Bolton's Northmen participated in Red Wedding. Same reason Karhold's host yielded to Stannis once he seized Arnolf Karstark. Don't forget, GRRM always insists that he is trying to find out where power comes from. Those men know one thing: obey their superiors. They will obey. Splice it with their uneasiness about the wildlings, Jon sending all his loyal commanders away from him, and you will see, they will obey. Especially if Bowen Marsh or his fellas gave them some kind of pep talk about not breaking their vows etc. The only thing that remains a mystery to me is how they look to convince other watches to throw in with them, especially those with wildlings that are commanded by Jon loyalists. But they can surely avoid the immediate danger

[Yakman]

I think Nights Watch has shown itself unfit to defend the realm against the real threat. NW will get disbanded, thanks to their little numbers and wildlings uprising after Jon's death. Wildlings may not see Jon as their direct commander in their hearts yet, but killing him clearly sends a message "we'd rather you starved to death than letting you through", so I can't see any other way than wildlings taking control of castle black and the remaining castles (especially the ruined ones), present Nights Watch brothers joining them (under the pressure of their numbers and the dishonor that was dealt to NW by Bowen Marsh's actions). No, actually I see something else....

Worst Case Scenario: now let's consider the logistics of that situation and how the conspirators could have used it to their advantage. At the moment when Jon is stabbed, most of the wildlings host is down in the basement feasting and drinking themselves to death. The only direct witness is Wun Wun. Most (or all) of the NW brothers pulled out from the feast. Now, let some of them hold off Wun Wun (or deal with him together), after - barricade the exits from the dungeon and set it on fire. Run for queen selyse, who doesn't like Jon (that last chapter started with her urging Jon to let wildlings on Hardhome die, then she remarked on how she will hope for a more submissive Commander once Jon never comes back), present this to her as a big R'hllor sacrifice, she won't mind.

I dunno.

Just re-read the passage. Jon has just won the loyalty of the Wildlings - they are aroused with passion to follow him south and kill Ramsay Bolton.

The scene at the hall has a few hundred wildlings, who are 100% behind Jon, and include their best warriors (who remain in Castle Black). Bowen Marsh walks out after they've proclaimed for him, as does Melisandre, as do Queen Selyse's knights.

Jon's basically being carried around when he hears the wailing of Wun Wun. He goes to the tower, and sees the giant killing the knight.

Some of the Queens men are there - but they aren't helping Ser Patrek. They seem to have just arrived as well, or they'd be laying into the giant.

Jon hears men shouting - not unusual these days for Castle Black (Marsh's men ambushing the wildlings at the hall?, the Queen's Men shouting at Wun Wun?, Wildlings' shouting at the Queen's men?), and then the stabbing happens.

Two things caught my attention here. The first is that after Jon disarms the boy who comes at him, he has trouble getting his hands around Longclaw to draw it out. Now, he was cut on the neck, so it might just be blood, but he was able to disarm the boy, so... is he bleeding so much that he's already weak from the first cut? Some other explanation?

The other thing is: why would Bowen make his move at that exact moment?

There are about five times as many wildlings in Castle Black as NW. Selyse's men can't help him - Stannis is apparently dead.

Moreover, the bulk of the wildlings at this moment are armed and 100% behind Jon. Won't they just massacre the NW in retaliation for Bowen's betrayal? Even if they never left the hall - and I doubt that none of them followed Jon to the sound of the Giant's wail - Jon ending up getting stabbed that night is not going to bode well for the Watch. They'll be extinguished by morning.

Now, Marsh doesn't have a lot of options, of course. Jon, in his mind, is going to destroy the NW anyways - first by breaking the ancient vows and leading an army against the Boltons, and second, by committing the last good men to a doomed mission to Hardhome. Jon's already done an enormous amount of damage to the Watch in Marsh's eyes - this might just be the final straw.

But again, he's doing it in public. When the wildlings are fired up. When they are armed, and outnumber the Watch.

Marsh is dooming himself personally and the Watch by assassinating Jon at that moment - he's in public, the Wildlings are fired up, and he doesn't have the ability to defend either himself, or his men. Something is wrong here, unless Marsh has the wildlings pinned into the hall... but how many men can he realistically have in this conspiracy OR Marsh is acting out of total desperation (not out of the realm of consideration).

[Whitering]

Bottom line, Marsh is an idiot, same as every racist, and umm, other people who hate everyone that don't affect them in any way. To be fair, he has been fighting the wildlings for a long, long time, and it takes a strong man, or a super relaxed one (Delorious Ed lol), to let that go.

Marsh knows the end is coming and somehow believes that the 300 or so Nightswatch left would be able to defeat them?

He never wanted the Wildlings at the Wall, he certainly didn't want the women being given a fort, he doesn't want to try to rescue the huge number of Wildlings still out there despite the fact he KNOWS they will come at him as undead later and he doesn't want Stannis getting Nightfort and making so many decisions affecting the Watch. He doesn't want Jon to play any role in getting the North in order when that should be their most pressing concern if there job is to protect the realms of men, and mostly because he can't let go of the hate.

[Lord Of Lite]

I believe that Bowen Marsh was possessed by a skin changer. It started when the Giant was taken to help dig out the corpses in the frozen cell. One of them(maybe both) was a frozen dead skin changer(s). It definitely(IMO) possessed the Giant. When Jon arrived, it left the Giant and possessed Whit to stab Jon. It either next possessed Bowen Marsh to also stab Jon or another one was already possessing Marsh. Neither Whit nor Bowen were responsible for their actions.

We haven't seen what would happen if a skin changer dies on the other side of the Wall and becomes a white walker. Can they leave their host body and inhabit another?

[Brightstar_]

Whether or not the stabbing was "justified" is another matter. I'm quite sure though that if Jon is dead, the wildlings will rise up. It's as Mance mentioned to Jon and he himself has experienced. The wildlings know and respect Jon, and it is stated so many times that Wildlings don't follow rules, they follow strength, they follow the man, and with Mance of the table, Jon was that man ( or Tormund but he has sided with Jon). Seeing him get stabbed will result in a full uprising I think, and perhaps some black brothers who did like Jon will choose their side if they revolt against Bowen March and cronies.

[Dan Bingler]

I tried to read through everything but I might have missed it; Bowen Marsh very clearly has been receiving correspondence directly from Tywin Lannister. This fact surely must have informed Marsh's actions in some way, particularly after Slynt is decapitated. From Jon's final chapter in ASoS:

"Lord Tywin favors Slynt," said Bowen Marsh, in a fretful, anxious voice. "I can show you his letter, Othell. 'Our faithful friend and servant' he called him."

[niggatornado]

I'm starting to have this sinking feeling that Queen Selyse actually put Bowen Marsh and co up to the betrayal.

[niggatornado]

I'm starting to have this sinking feeling that Queen Selyse actually put Bowen Marsh and co up to the betrayal.

[Janice]

I was thinking the same thing! With tormund in the shield hall with the rest of the wildlings getting drunk I hope they avenge Jon that's if marsh hasn't got something up his sleeve for them? Ie. locking them in the hall and burning it down?!?!?! I wouldn't put anything pass grrm.

[Satin fetch me a cock!]

OK here goes...Marsh is acting under Mel's influence. She's realized that with Stannis' death, that he is not TPwwP, and has the "Eureka" moment thinking back to her wanting to see her prince in the fire but only seeing "Snow", importantly capitalized to tell us it's Jon, though through her preconceived notion she is blinded to the truth. She now realizes what The Big R is trying to tell her and arranges for Job to be assassinated, so she can raise him up as the TPwwP.

She's the only one who has the power to pull it off, Selyse has no power, and truly is merely Queen Regent at best, as Stannis has no direct male heir, making Shireen his heir. But but but north of Dorne, women don't typically inherit do they? It passes to a brother, an uncle, a male cousin, no? Nevermind that Selyse doesn't wipe her ass unless it's done in the manner prescribed by Mel, she's a puppet caught in religious fervor.

Marsh is a chump, a bean counter and ignorant (like most) of the original purpose of the Wall. His motivation for conspiring is plain, but there's no way he's the leader of the conspiracy. Maybe he's the patsy, to be given up the moment the act is complete along with his NW cronies as a sop to the Wildlings good behavior. Though he, of course, doesn't know this...perhaps he's been told they will expel the Wildlings after Jon's murder.

Here is my thing.. If Mel suddenly realized Jon is AA and is now trying to fulfill the prophecy by killing him, then why didn't she kill Stannis and then bring him back so be could be "reborn"? We all know she truly believed in Stannis as being AA! Jon is one of my favorite characters and I really want him to ok, but I don't think Mel did this, at least for the AA reasons.

[BalerionTheCat]

Melisandre didn't arrange for Jon to be killed. Nor could she be sure she can revive him. I don't even think she believes she can.
Marsh did it because I was disapproving Jon for allowing the Wildlings passing the Wall and cooperating with Stannis. Whether wounded or
dead, Melisandre and Selyse will help Jon (for what they can) and Marsh (who has always been an idiot) will burn or die shortly for what he did.

[Arya Targaryen]

Melisandre didn't arrange for Jon to be killed. Nor could she be sure she can revive him. I don't even think she believes she can.

Marsh did it because I was disapproving Jon for allowing the Wildlings passing the Wall and cooperating with Stannis. Whether wounded or

dead, Melisandre and Selyse will help Jon (for what they can) and Marsh (who has always been an idiot) will burn or die shortly for what he did.

He was disagreeing, but that's not why he stabbed him. If he didn't want the wildlings south of the Wall, he would have killed Jon before they crossed, not after.

There is only one explanation for Bowen's behaviour, and it is the Pink Letter. From which he has just learnt that Stannis died. I don't think he cared for the rest. I don't think he cared whether Jon broke his vows or not. Stannis' death meant that they were on the losing side. And in his mind there is only one way to make sure the Watch will survive: if they kill Jon, and do whatever the Boltons and the IT wants.

[Har!]

Ice is a lot stronger than you would think and continues to "grow" if the temperatures remain or get colder. In the last 6 weeks I've been ice fishing in northern MN and the ice was 27-30 inches thick with over 10,000 ice houses, pickup trucks, cars, ATV's plus fishermen. I do have my own suspicions that the pink letter is not factual, but I also suspect that Stannis will not succeed for long. Sure, I would love it if Stannis finds a way to defeat Ramsay or Roose, but unless the temperatures are not really all that cold, then ice should be able to suppport thousands of men in armor and their horses. GRRM does suggest Stannis is up to something regarding the ground and it will be interesting to learn what he comes up with.

In the last chapter from Asha's perspective in DwD (the Sacrifice, ch 62) Noseless Ned Woods, one of the scouts from Deepwood Motte states:

I know them lakes. You been at them likes maggots on a corpse, hundreds o' you. Cut so many holes in the ice it's a bloody wonder more haven't fallen through. Out by the island, there's places look like a cheese the rats been at.

I am willing to bet that Noseless Ned has the right of it when it comes to these lakes. There have already been men lost due to all the cutting.

Now imagine an army of men, many mounted, attempting to charge across these 'swiss-cheese' lakes, unaware of their existence due to the "wind... swirling from the west, driving still more snow across the frozen surface of the lakes."

I'd say Stannis has a pretty good welcome prepared for Ser Stupid and the Bastard.