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NBA 2011-2012 Season

Now with more Linsanity

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#221 Sir Thursday

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:46 AM

Can someone explain to me how that works, draft picks? Do clubs earn a right to pick the best rookies or something?


At the end of the year, the teams are arranged in reverse order of their records. All the teams that didn't make the playoffs (ie. the bottom 7 in each conference) are put into a lottery, which is weighted in favour of the teams with the worst records. They determine which teams get the top three picks using the lottery, and then the rest of the teams are sorted in reverse record order. Once the lottery teams have been ordered, they then put in the playoff teams in reverse order after that.

It is possible to trade your pick in the draft to another team (if there's a player you want to get rid of, for example). In the scenario I'm interested in, New York has traded their first round pick to Houston. Now, if New York make the playoffs, then they cannot pick any higher than 15th. However, because of the imbalance between the conferences, they actually have the 9th worst record in the league, so if they were to miss out on the playoffs then they would be picking 9th (assuming they do not move up as a result of the lottery).

Because there are many fewer basketball players on the court at any time than in pretty much any other team sport, the value of a 'star player' is much higher than in other sports. It is possible for a single player to carry a team to a much greater extent than any other sport I've followed. A consequence of this is that it is VERY valuable to have a high pick in the draft - if you can find the potential star, he will significantly improve your team's performance. For example, this year there is one player (Anthony Davis) that scouts are saying will be a superstar some day - if you can draft him onto your team, then you're set for years to come (at least in theory...projections of superstardom don't always come true).

Unfortunately, that leads to some teams pursuing a 'tanking' strategy - they will trade their good, older players for as many draft picks as they can with the aim of doing very badly, get high picks in the draft for a couple of years and in theory end up with a nucleus of very talented youngsters who as they mature will lead the team to glory. The idea behind the lottery system is to prevent this from happening - you are not guaranteed the top pick if you do badly. But unfortunately it doesn't do enough to stop teams from bottoming out - there are at least two teams this year (New Orleans and Charlotte) who are transparently employing this strategy. They will still be getting a very high draft pick, even if it's not necessarily the #1 pick.

ST

#222 Maithanet

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:41 AM

Unfortunately, that leads to some teams pursuing a 'tanking' strategy - they will trade their good, older players for as many draft picks as they can with the aim of doing very badly, get high picks in the draft for a couple of years and in theory end up with a nucleus of very talented youngsters who as they mature will lead the team to glory. The idea behind the lottery system is to prevent this from happening - you are not guaranteed the top pick if you do badly. But unfortunately it doesn't do enough to stop teams from bottoming out - there are at least two teams this year (New Orleans and Charlotte) who are transparently employing this strategy. They will still be getting a very high draft pick, even if it's not necessarily the #1 pick.


New Orleans and Charlotte are obviously looking to rebuild with a younger roster and some of those players are not yet in the NBA. But I personally don't think that is a problem, in and of itself. No system is perfect. If you don't give the worst teams the best draft picks, then teams with fewer resources will remain cellar dwellers forever. In the NBA it is already hard enough to compete if you are a small market team, and I mostly think that the NBA lottery system is a pretty good one for maintaining the balance between discouraging tanking and helping poor teams rebuild. It sucks that the Bobcats and Hornets suck so badly, but no matter what some team is going to be the worst, and since the NBA is less chancy/luck based than say, baseball, then it isn't surprising that bad teams lose the vast majority of the time.

#223 Slurktan

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 09:50 AM

I wonder what the backlash will be when New Orleans "wins" the draft lottery, Will Stern finally get ousted?

#224 Caliban2

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:26 AM

I wonder what the backlash will be when New Orleans "wins" the draft lottery, Will Stern finally get ousted?


No. New Orleans will be near the post possition anyway.

Sir Thursday,

The eastern conference is now significantly stronger than the west. You dont evaluate the conferences based on the bottom tier.

#225 Maithanet

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:37 AM

The eastern conference is now significantly stronger than the west. You dont evaluate the conferences based on the bottom tier.


Well, it all depends on how you define "stronger". If it is difficulty in making the playoffs, the West is stronger. If it is difficulty making it out of the first round, it is debatable. If it is difficulty in making it to the Conference Finals or winning the conference, then the East is stronger.

But I don't think you can make a blanket statement that the East's two best teams > the West's two best teams = East is stronger

#226 Slurktan

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 11:16 AM

No. New Orleans will be near the post possition anyway.


So? New Orleans is the team owned by the NBA and run by Stern. If it wins a luck based draw then there would and should be an uproar over it.

#227 Exa Inova

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 10:57 AM

Just saw on hoops hype:
Milwaukee traded forward Stephen Jackson and center Andrew Bogut to Golden State for guard Monta Ellis and forwards Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown.

First thoughts: good trade for GS. With Steph they have enough outside shooting power (better shooter than Jenkins) and Bogut and Lee will be a good tandem (gasol Bynum light)
For the Bucks............I dont know......Monta and Skiles will butt heads like montain goats I fear.

Edited by Exa Inova, 14 March 2012 - 11:09 AM.


#228 Relic

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 11:06 AM

does anyone think this is a good trade for the warriors?

#229 Trebla

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 01:33 PM

Radio reports that Mike D'Antoni has resigned. NFL reporter Adam Scheftler just tweeted it. http://twitter.com/#!/adamschefter


ETA:
http://espn.go.com/n...dantoni-resigns

Edited by Trebla, 14 March 2012 - 01:43 PM.


#230 Greywolf2375

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 01:48 PM

Radio reports that Mike D'Antoni has resigned. NFL reporter Adam Scheftler just tweeted it. http://twitter.com/#!/adamschefter


ETA:
http://espn.go.com/n...dantoni-resigns

yeah, was just coming in with this:
http://www.cbssports...as-knicks-coach

#231 Relic

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 04:37 PM

thank fucking god.

#232 Sir Thursday

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 08:16 PM

does anyone think this is a good trade for the warriors?


I think so - Bogut when healthy is going to be a huge improvement to their front court. And I think he's just unlucky rather than injury prone. Both of the long term injuries he has suffered have been freak accidents. Monta + Curry wasn't the greatest fit, so I reckon the addition by subtraction may just help. Klay Thompson's style of play would seem to be better next to Curry, and this opens up more minutes for him. Giving up Udoh hurts a little I suppose, but every time I see Bogut play he seems like a monster defensively and I think he was worth giving up.

Taking back Jackson does kind of impact their long term cap flexibility adversely...but at the same time he might be motivated to play well for them. And if he isn't, well I guess they stand a chance of keeping their pick this year (top 7 protected, or it goes to the Jazz).

ST

#233 Greywolf2375

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Posted 15 March 2012 - 01:29 PM

NFL FA is the hot topic, but the NBA just saw a key piece come off the board. Howard agrees to stay in Orlando for the remainder of the year and for next year.

http://www.cbssports...stay-in-orlando

#234 Morpheus

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Posted 15 March 2012 - 01:37 PM

The Knicks- Unfortunately D'Antoni leaving probably won't change much. As long as Dolan runs the show they remain a terrible orgsanization.

Dwight Howard's decision all but kills the Nets as they move to Brooklyn. Is there any chance Deron Williams stays now? I kinda wish D'antoni's rumored desire to trade Carmelo for Williams happened but it looks like the Mavs for him.

#235 Sir Thursday

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Posted 15 March 2012 - 05:31 PM

So, winners of the trade deadline?

- Washington made a pretty good deal - adding Nene is going to help them a ton, and getting rid of McGee and Young is the first step on the road to getting rid of the toxic me-first culture they've got going on over there.
- Clippers were able to take Nick Young for basically nothing. I think they've got an environment going that's much better suited to Young, so I'd expect him to do pretty well there - he definitely fills a need.
- You could make a case for the Lakers as well, I suppose - Sessions addresses a key need, and they added Jordan Hill who could be a decent young player for them without losing too much at all.


ST

#236 Calibandar

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Posted 15 March 2012 - 05:44 PM

At the end of the year, the teams are arranged in reverse order of their records. All the teams that didn't make the playoffs (ie. the bottom 7 in each conference) are put into a lottery, which is weighted in favour of the teams with the worst records. They determine which teams get the top three picks using the lottery, and then the rest of the teams are sorted in reverse record order. Once the lottery teams have been ordered, they then put in the playoff teams in reverse order after that.


Ok, so is that why highly rated youngsters like John Wall and Kyrie Irving are now playing for lesser sides like the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers.

#237 childe roland

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Posted 15 March 2012 - 10:59 PM

Lakers gave up very little to improve a great deal in my opinion. Unless you were gettin Howard you could not justify gasol or bynum being on the block. Also how screwed is brooklyn next year

#238 Sir Thursday

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 08:13 AM

Ok, so is that why highly rated youngsters like John Wall and Kyrie Irving are now playing for lesser sides like the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers.


Yep, that's right. Washington and Cleveland were the two teams that won the lottery the last two years. Both of them were bad enough to stand a decent chance of winning the lottery. (FYI, the team with the worst record has a 25% chance of winning, and the probabilities go down from there to the 14th pick, who has a 0.1% chance). Ironically, Cleveland won the lottery with a pick that they had traded for from the Clippers earlier that season (despite the fact that they had the 2nd worst record in the league that year, and so were much more likely to win with their own pick).

It is a bit of a shame that the brightest sparks of the draft class will almost all go to situations where they're not going to get much exposure and are playing on bad teams, but if they're good enough, then you expect them to be able to help drag their team out of the mire. Irving is doing a reasonable job of that with the Cavaliers this year. They'll get another influx of young players this year (They've just acquired the Lakers' draft pick in a trade) and as those players mature you'd expect them to start getting better.

The famous example of when this doesn't happen is what happened with the Spurs about 15 years ago. They had a very good team, but their best player (David Robinson) was out for the season and they ended up in the lottery. They won the lottery and selected Tim Duncan, immediately becoming a very strong team. They went on to win 4 championships over the course of the next decade.

ST

#239 Greywolf2375

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 09:44 AM

The famous example of when this doesn't happen is what happened with the Spurs about 15 years ago. They had a very good team, but their best player (David Robinson) was out for the season and they ended up in the lottery. They won the lottery and selected Tim Duncan, immediately becoming a very strong team. They went on to win 4 championships over the course of the next decade.

ST

Man Timmy would have looked nice in Celtic green. worst draft ever.

#240 Triskan Peersman

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 10:44 AM

Portland is so cursed.

They were looking so loaded a few years back. Now Roy has retired, they've finally severed ties with Oden who may never play again, and they've let McMillan go at the top. They still have Aldridge to build around, and Nic Batum is a nice asset, but it does seem like they're in complete rebuilding mode now.