184 replies to this topic

[The Dragon has three heads]

The biggest issue I have is how then this relates back to him of many faces.  Which the kindly man, smashes into arya.  Is it a form of indoctrination to make them not question? or has a genuine interest in helping people?
I wouldnt be surprised if LF has his money off shore.  In his position, I would have at least some funds off shore.  He's out of the capital but his whore houses and other investments would still be paying off, he needs to be able to access it, and quickly, how is this made possible with the IB?
I think he would be known at the IB for what he was and his personal investments but I doubt is more than that.  The FM and IB conspiracy, if there is one, would far outdate LF.  Was his father someone of consequence in bravos? Probably, but there is no way to prove it, yet, and that in and of itself bares watching.

[Knight errant]

I think there is no correlation. It's Correlation, not causation. Just because a man happens to be of Bravosi desent and happens to be good will money hardly means they are involved somehow. I mean it says it all in his fathers/Grandfathers job : Sell sword who isn't even a knight. He randomly made up a coat of arms, hardly someone who is likely to be involved with the Ironbank and if he was the purpose of being in westeros makes no sense. There is no real evidence for such a theory except they are both good with money. Petyr is too young to be that influential in the Bank anyways...

[aryagonnakill]

Knight errant, on 21 November 2012 - 10:59 AM, said:

I think there is no correlation. It's Correlation, not causation. Just because a man happens to be of Bravosi desent and happens to be good will money hardly means they are involved somehow. I mean it says it all in his fathers/Grandfathers job : Sell sword who isn't even a knight. He randomly made up a coat of arms, hardly someone who is likely to be involved with the Ironbank and if he was the purpose of being in westeros makes no sense. There is no real evidence for such a theory except they are both good with money. Petyr is too young to be that influential in the Bank anyways...

... We have no info on his father, too my knowledge its left as a mystery, but I'm not perfect. Also if there is no correlation it cannot then be correlation, you have to choose.

[The Giver]

Brucolac, on 29 January 2012 - 02:01 AM, said:

A bunch of posts in this topic go with GRRM wouldn't do this if it couldn't happen.  Well, yeah, of course, he can do and invent whatever he wants-it is fiction after all.  That doesn't mean that it will be consistent with the world he has invented and revealed to this point or have what appears to be realistic humun motivation.  One of his big selling points when he started this series was realism in a fantasy world, but he has fallen short of that goal several times throughtout the series.   If this one happens, it will be his biggest slip to date.

I don't agree at all. I think that he is using the IB makes it more realistic than not. Just because it's not the way you wanted it to go, doesn't mean that he has failed.

[Brucolac]

Just repeating myself at this point, but what exactly do you find realistic about one knight being able to go around the world and contract and arrange for the transport of 50+ different mercenary companies in a timeframe that make them useful for Stannis?   What in these books makes it believable that in the end the throne is really just for sell and that throwing enough money at it is all it takes to win?  If that amount of money does exist, is the million dollar debt owed to the Iron Bank even a fraction of it and enough to justify further expenses several times the debt to recoup losses?  What makes you think a financial instution would give the amount of money it would need to do this if that were possible to a man who is so obviously on his last legs, surrounded by his enemies and starvation as the Iron Banks' Emissary finds Stannis in the snow?  My opinion is there is no credible reason why they would do it or that it could be done.

[mrlukeduke]

Brucolac, on 28 November 2012 - 01:59 AM, said:

What makes you think a financial instution would give the amount of money it would need to do this if that were possible to a man who is so obviously on his last legs, surrounded by his enemies and starvation as the Iron Banks' Emissary finds Stannis in the snow?  My opinion is there is no credible reason why they would do it or that it could be done.

Stannis seems to be in a pretty good situation to me. He's totally fooled Ramsey; he has the ravens. He's setting a trap. He blew the Karstark's cover. He has Theon and the loyalty of the northmen if he can prevail just a while longer. He has Asha too. Manderley is ready to go over. He may be able to find Rickon. Jon (if not dead) is an ally. The south is in chaos. Winterfell and the North is almost his. And he still has that red witch.

The banksters may even be funding more than one party but I don't think it's a set-up on their part. They just want repayments on loans and accumulated interest. Stannis pays what's due. He has the iron reputation required by the Iron Bank. He signed in blood!

Edited by mrlukeduke, 28 November 2012 - 08:00 AM.

[Blackfish Tully]

Brucolac, on 28 November 2012 - 01:59 AM, said:

Just repeating myself at this point, but what exactly do you find realistic about one knight being able to go around the world and contract and arrange for the transport of 50+ different mercenary companies in a timeframe that make them useful for Stannis?   What in these books makes it believable that in the end the throne is really just for sell and that throwing enough money at it is all it takes to win?  If that amount of money does exist, is the million dollar debt owed to the Iron Bank even a fraction of it and enough to justify further expenses several times the debt to recoup losses?  What makes you think a financial instution would give the amount of money it would need to do this if that were possible to a man who is so obviously on his last legs, surrounded by his enemies and starvation as the Iron Banks' Emissary finds Stannis in the snow?  My opinion is there is no credible reason why they would do it or that it could be done.

There is no way that the mercenary companies have time to help Stannis win the North and Stannis knows this but if he does win in the North than he will need the mercenary companies for when he moves to the South and there is enough time to hire mercenary companies and get them in place to help him when he invades the South.

As far as the Iron Bank is concerned sometimes your reputation is  more important then the potential losses that can occur with the investment . The one thing that the Iron Bank has over every other bank in the world is the fact that everybody knows that if you screw with the Iron Bank than they will destroy you and they will do anything to keep that reputation . If they let the Lannisters dictate terms to them then they become just like any other bank in the world.

[Knight errant]

aryagonnakill, on 22 November 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

... We have no info on his father, too my knowledge its left as a mystery, but I'm not perfect. Also if there is no correlation it cannot then be correlation, you have to choose.

No...you're very wrong. We have loads of information he's a mercenary/ or the lowest level of landed Lord in westeros. Hardly something a man with IB connections would have.

Also there is time for him to higher mercs to help, marching south will take some time and it's not like he needs them in a week. He has got the North pretty much in the bag, he'll need men who don't need to worry about farming or protecting their homes during the winter to push south with.

[kingofashes]

its not just a question of money for the bank its reputation and fear. Most sensible lords rulers would fear a missed payment to the IB. The banks reputation is one of massive power (they can replace one ruler the dislike with one they like)

All said I bet the IB have little problem getting paid on time and thats because of the reputation (dont fck with us) and fear they have.

Cersie made a fool of the in front of the entire KL court by treating the banks representative like dirt so the IB has to retaliate before other lords and ladys in the 7K's look at what cersei has done and think it's ok to do it themselves.

A potential lose of god knows how much

[jarl the climber]

What we know is that the Iron Bank is the wealthiest financial instution in the world. Jon beleives it controls more wealth than all the rest combined. By calling in its commercial loans and refusing to make new ones. This would cause the money supply to contract. In other words people will have less money to buy goods and services. We also see noble families in the Vale agreeing to marry into the wealthy merchant families for large doweries, Cobarays  marriage and Lady Waynewoods agreement to marry Harry to LFs bastard. The Waynewoods were heavily in debt and the Corbarys were refered to as ancient but impoverished by Cat in AGOT.

Clearly LF is taking advantage of the banks current  policy to buy influence in the Vale whether he working with them or is just taking advantage of the situation is unclear. In the long run the loans that the bank agreed to make to Stannis might be more important if it was used as an economic weapon rather than as a fund to hire foreign sellswords. Stannis's initial reaction was to hire sellswords but he might end up using the money to counter LF in the Vale.

The Yunkish are currently hiring sellswords, they have been trying to hire them since Dany sacked Astapor. In a  period of about a year and half they have recruited  about 8,000 or  9,000 sellwords. IF they had hired the Golden Company that would have got them close to 20,000. With the Golden Company now working for Illryio the SW of Essos is probaly tapped out of its sellsword companies. The Yunkish experience also highlights the problems you face when trying to employ a large mercenary force. Granted Stannis is not the Yunkish, he is an experienced military commander who might inspire a little more confidence.

Using the yunkish experience as a guide it would be reasonable to assume that Stannis's guy Massey might be able to hire about 10,000 or so and get them to Westeros within about a year or so. Jorah mentioned that the Bravossi did employ sellswords but we do not know how prevalent they are in the NW of Essos.

[BearandMaidenFair]

Judging from this map I found, it seems like more than a coincidence Baelish Keep is so close to Braavos. He might not be involved with the Faceless Men, but an opportunist like Baelish would have to have a relationship with the Bank. He would be a fool not to

[aryagonnakill]

Knight errant, on 06 December 2012 - 06:46 PM, said:

No...you're very wrong. We have loads of information he's a mercenary/ or the lowest level of landed Lord in westeros. Hardly something a man with IB connections would have.

Also there is time for him to higher mercs to help, marching south will take some time and it's not like he needs them in a week. He has got the North pretty much in the bag, he'll need men who don't need to worry about farming or protecting their homes during the winter to push south with.

No... I'm not.  Being unclear on his fathers profession, and having no other info on him is not "loads of information" It's actually no information as I said.  Also I have no idea what you are talking about in your second paragraph.  No one can worry about farming during the winter, it's winter.  And who has the North in the bag? if your talking about baelish your out of your mind

[WakeTheDragon]

Cersei will feel the wrath of the bank soon.

[WakeTheDragon]

Baelish was master of coin I wouldn't be suprised if he was involved with the Iron Bank at some level.

[ACVG]

I'm pretty sure the Iron Bank dealt with the "dragons" when the Targaryans were on the throne.

The Bravoosi hated the Valyrians b/c they practiced slavery, the Targaryans were always very clear that slavery was not their "thing" which fits very nicely with "the breaker of chains" herself Danaerys Stormborn.

[mrlukeduke]

I'm not so sure, I think that's too general a statement. History is more complex than that. In many threads people have argued that Braavosi have fought on the side of the Targaryens, or rather vice versa, even indirectly or simply through shared enemies. There are even some theories out there that Targs were rebels who tried to free the slaves from Valyrian subjugation (and is part of the reason for their exile, among other issues).

[hrafna]

i like the idea of the faceless men and the iron bank being linked. they don't need to provide stannis an army, they just need to eliminate certain individuals. plus i like the idea of arya killing littlefinger and reuniting/rescuing sansa!

[RamonaQ]

My latest crackpot theory is that some of the crown's debt to the Iron Bank were incurred bec. Littlefinger hired Jaquen to kill someone...maybe Varys? One guy it would probably be hard to kill without the faceless men's skills. And rather than having been caught, Jaquen is in the dungeons for that purpose? I don't know why he ends up in the citadel though.

I'm probably wrong in most of the particulars but it seems as if there must be some connection. Littlefinger is utterly untrustworthy, has some ties to Bravos, knows how expensive it is to hire a faceless man, is master of coin & can make money appear out of thin air, killed off the Hand of the King who was giving Robert sound financial advice, etc. As for the connection between the Iron Bank and faceless men--put together the question of where the faceless men's money goes, where the Iron Bank's money comes from, their prominence in Braavos, the mysterious fates that befall the bank's debtors, and the fact that an iron coin gains admission to the House of Black and White and they kill people with poisoned gold coin and it seems that there must be something there.

[MtnLion]

I don't think Littlefinger wants to kill Varys.  But, I could see a faceless man being hired to kill Robert at the proper time . . . by Varys.

[mrlukeduke]

MtnLion, on 11 January 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

I don't think Littlefinger wants to kill Varys.  But, I could see a faceless man being hired to kill Robert at the proper time . . . by Varys.

Could well be. But recall Vary's little chat with Ned in the dungeons of the Red Keep! Varys says that part of his mummery is to have various highborn or powerful lords -- and he specifically includes Baelish! -- believe he is their pawn. Whereas of course in reality, conversely, it is all part of his slippery dance. He keeps on swimming.