184 replies to this topic

[WiDMNDBAMMD]

Man this stuff is so complex but there's this puzzle in my mind that I'm starting to see with the Iron Bank, FM, Arya, Jaqen, Iron Islands, Iron Throne, Stannis, Jon Snow etc.

Here's some pieces.

1. Asha at the Kingsmoot(her failed Queensmoot) tried to convince the Iron Men of peace and trade instead of war and conquest.
2. Asha recalls the tale of the prince that wasn't given a chance to speak at the Kingsmoot, prince Theon was not there either.
3. FM in oldtown with keys to every lock.
4. FM hired by Euron to kill Balon.*
5. Stannis came to the aid of the Wall when the Iron Throne did nothing.
5. Jon Snow has aided Stannis with his "knowledge"
6. Iron Bank now has deal with Wall.
7. Iron Bank now has deal with Stannis to seat him on the Iron Throne.
8. Arya given first mission kill a promissory note dealer by FM.
9. Iron Bank history, oldest most powerful bank in the free cities.
10. FM ties to Old Valyara before the doom, concerning the slaves. Older than Braavos.
11. Cost to kill a princess would be too much for the Iron Throne.
12. Euron is now seeking to unite the with Dany and the Dragons.

Those are all the concrete facts I can recall from the books. Now here's some conclusions / possible things

13. Petyr hears about Cersei deciding to not pay back the Iron bank realizes that she might not last as long as he hoped.
14. The cost of FM to kill a king would be more than a princess. Therefore Euron would have to pay a massive amount, the cost must have been with-in his means since Balon is dead. He plans on being king afterwards.
15.  Iron Bank and FM are in Braavos, Euron get loan from Iron Bank to pay FM?
16.  Iron Bank/FM either hear that Euron is seeking Dragons or his ships are pirating everywhere, even near Braavos or he fails to repay the loan.
17.  C: Iron Bank/FM are seeking to put someone else in power on the Iron Islands. Asha wants of trade and peace are more towards what Iron Bank want.
18. Whenever a lord or king fails to replay the Iron Bank. A new lord/king sprouts up.
19. C: Iron Bank wanted to the promissory note guy replaced. This only works if we conclude there is a tie between the Iron Bank and FM.
20.  C: Iron Bank backs Stannis because he'll not only take the Iron Throne but get rid of the Lannisters. Also he's possibly digging himself into more debt by borrowing more money from them. Once the Iron Throne quit payment they stopped also borrowing money as well. Stannis Baretheon probably owes the money to the Iron Bank he borrowed himself even if he fails to claim the Iron Throne( I'm assuming that's why he tells the knight to go to braavos get sellswords and archers and put his daughter on the throne if he dies, because his wife daughter would have to pay his debt?).

I'll stop there for now. See what people think of this. One final thought about the Iron Bank seeking aiding Stannis.

I will point out Petyr here because he does an excellent job pointing out Robert's heir.

Now who is Tomlin's heir? Think about that because as far as I can tell. It's Stannis. Magaery has no children with Tomlin, Marcella is promised but has no children as well.

The boy is a sweet little guy but his heir is Stannis right now. I'm not saying that suddenly the Iron Throne will be his but  it's a strange thing these rules of succession.

Edited by WiDMNDBAMMD, 01 February 2013 - 09:31 PM.

[DDDUnit]

SpaceChampion, on 02 January 2012 - 10:40 AM, said:

I should have clarified, i don't believe the Iron Bank is a front for a single person or group like the faceless men.  I believe anyone with money can approach them with a scheme and as long as their money is good, they can get the Iron Bank to front it.

Uhhh yeah?  That's what banks do.  They take a scheme, give credit based on merits, and collect on their investment.  Cersei was arrogant and refused to pay the most powerful financial entity in existence.  It is stated how the Iron Bank destroys monarchs and decides wars.  He knows how honorable by reputation Stannis is and believes him to be a more reliable person to pay back the loans.  He does not pick Stannis on the likelihood that he will win.  Tychos knows that his backing will allow Stannis to win through a near limitless ability to hire sellswords and to pay for supplies.

[DDDUnit]

WiDMNDBAMMD, on 01 February 2013 - 09:22 PM, said:

Man this stuff is so complex but there's this puzzle in my mind that I'm starting to see with the Iron Bank, FM, Arya, Jaqen, Iron Islands, Iron Throne, Stannis, Jon Snow etc.

Here's some pieces.

1. Asha at the Kingsmoot(her failed Queensmoot) tried to convince the Iron Men of peace and trade instead of war and conquest.
2. Asha recalls the tale of the prince that wasn't given a chance to speak at the Kingsmoot, prince Theon was not there either.
3. FM in oldtown with keys to every lock.
4. FM hired by Euron to kill Balon.*
5. Stannis came to the aid of the Wall when the Iron Throne did nothing.
5. Jon Snow has aided Stannis with his "knowledge"
6. Iron Bank now has deal with Wall.
7. Iron Bank now has deal with Stannis to seat him on the Iron Throne.
8. Arya given first mission kill a promissory note dealer by FM.
9. Iron Bank history, oldest most powerful bank in the free cities.
10. FM ties to Old Valyara before the doom, concerning the slaves. Older than Braavos.
11. Cost to kill a princess would be too much for the Iron Throne.
12. Euron is now seeking to unite the with Dany and the Dragons.

Those are all the concrete facts I can recall from the books. Now here's some conclusions / possible things

13. Petyr hears about Cersei deciding to not pay back the Iron bank realizes that she might not last as long as he hoped.
14. The cost of FM to kill a king would be more than a princess. Therefore Euron would have to pay a massive amount, the cost must have been with-in his means since Balon is dead. He plans on being king afterwards.
15.  Iron Bank and FM are in Braavos, Euron get loan from Iron Bank to pay FM?
16.  Iron Bank/FM either hear that Euron is seeking Dragons or his ships are pirating everywhere, even near Braavos or he fails to repay the loan.
17.  C: Iron Bank/FM are seeking to put someone else in power on the Iron Islands. Asha wants of trade and peace are more towards what Iron Bank want.
18. Whenever a lord or king fails to replay the Iron Bank. A new lord/king sprouts up.
19. C: Iron Bank wanted to the promissory note guy replaced. This only works if we conclude there is a tie between the Iron Bank and FM.
20.  C: Iron Bank backs Stannis because he'll not only take the Iron Throne but get rid of the Lannisters. Also he's possibly digging himself into more debt by borrowing more money from them. Once the Iron Throne quit payment they stopped also borrowing money as well. Stannis Baretheon probably owes the money to the Iron Bank he borrowed himself even if he fails to claim the Iron Throne( I'm assuming that's why he tells the knight to go to braavos get sellswords and archers and put his daughter on the throne if he dies, because his wife daughter would have to pay his debt?).

I'll stop there for now. See what people think of this. One final thought about the Iron Bank seeking aiding Stannis.

I will point out Petyr here because he does an excellent job pointing out Robert's heir.

Now who is Tomlin's heir? Think about that because as far as I can tell. It's Stannis. Magaery has no children with Tomlin, Marcella is promised but has no children as well.

The boy is a sweet little guy but his heir is Stannis right now. I'm not saying that suddenly the Iron Throne will be his but  it's a strange thing these rules of succession.

Stannis is the heir because he is the next living male Baratheon.  You also have a lot to comment on.  Balon did not have much power as a king, so his price could have been measured based on merits rather than a self-appointed title.  Euron is also very, very wealth, as shown in his presentation at the Kings Moot.  He easily could have afforded the FM without a loan from the Iron Bank.  A sound financial institution is unlikely to back a banished, nefarious pirate in hiring a FM to become king/lord of the iron islands.  The Iron Bank has also been noted they have the ability to remove and establish kings through their backing.

LF is arguably the greatest financial mind in Westeros.  He accumulated an immense wealh in a relatively short amount of time and now receives taxes from the Vale and Trident.  Most of the realm is aware that Stannis is Tommin's heir, but LF still must feign support for Tommin as long as he can until he gets the full support of the Vale and makes his push for king.  I doubt Stannis would approve of the man who is responsible for the alliance that crippled his army and who owns numerous brothels.  LF may or may not find out about the Iron Bank backing Stannis, but he seems capable of funding his own war effort if he can pay off the guardian of Harry the Heir to agree to marry him to the supposed bastard of the man from the weakest of all landed houses.

As for Stannis, the Iron Bank backed him because he is the main opponent of the regime that is refusing to pay back their debts.  Cersei's arrogance is the antithesis of Stannas' honor.  The Iron bank knows his reputation as being the most honorable man in Westeros and want him as king because he would be a reliable investment who would pay back all that is owed.  He tells the knight to go get sellswords because the new resources he has gives him a near limitless ability to hire sellswords and to gather supplies for his rapidly dwindling army.

[bemused]

I don't think Stannis is all that honourable but he does strive to be just ...and that is what the IB will care about.

There's no honour in the way he dealt with Renly and Penrose , e.g.

According to Jon's conversation with Cregan Karstark , a daughter comes before an uncle , so unless Tommen and Myrcella are proved to be Jaime's , ( in which case Stannis should have been Robert's heir , as Ned assessed )..Myrcella would come before Stannis.

Edited by bemused, 04 February 2013 - 02:06 PM.

[Mother of Mountains]

The Iron bank is doing what banks (and bookmakers) do when an investment looks unlikely to pay off, they're laying-off, balancing they're loss against the failing Baratheon/Lannister dynasty.

Also look out for Arya big hit, she'll be hired to assasinate Cersei by the Iron Bank, she's the valonqar, the little brother.