184 replies to this topic

[Ghost714]

MtnLion, on 03 January 2012 - 06:13 PM, said:

Theon knew about the treachery expected from the Karstarks from a conversation that Roose had in Winterfell (or perhaps earlier).

It was Before Winterfell, it was at the Dreadfort.

"He had seen that cloak before, he knew, just as he had seen the man who wore it.  At the Dreadfort.  I remember.  He sat and supped with Lord Ramsay and Whoresbane Umber, the night they brought Reek up from his cell."

  What does that have to do with anything?
How would that mean he knows what the letter on Stannis's table says? The one I am talking about is the one I reference in my post above yours. The one Theon looks at with the Shiney black seal (from Jon)

Unless your just saying random facts... like Abel is Mance Rayder??? I really do not see your point in reference to what I posted???

Edited by Ghost714, 03 January 2012 - 09:11 PM.

[bemused]

Since Tycho likely knows about the contents of jon's letter to stannis, and he runs into a Stannis ally outside of Winterfell , it seems reasonable that he would have passed the information on. In front of Theon ? Why not ? Theon is given into his custody on his way to Stannis. Theon is most unlikely to run back into Winterfell and spill the beans.

Edited by bemused, 03 January 2012 - 11:09 PM.

[Ghost714]

bemused, on 03 January 2012 - 11:07 PM, said:

Since Tycho likely knows about the contents of jon's letter to stannis, and he runs into a Stannis ally outside of Winterfell , it seems reasonable that he would have passed the information on. In front of Theon ? Why not ? Theon is given into his custody on his way to Stannis. Theon is most unlikely to run back into Winterfell and spill the beans.

Lol this is what I have been saying. I agree 100%

[jarl the climber]

The Iron Bank is very interesting and I hope they continue to remain somewhat of a mystery.t is interesting that they are supporting Stannis over the other claimants. I know that they seem to have disliked the valryians(the bravossi).But there is no evidence that they had a problem with the targaryens,they let Dany and viserys live there and I havn't read anything that indicated any wars between Bravoss and the Targ dynasty.If and when dany comes to the 7 will there fear of dragons cause themto oppose her or will they propose a marriage alliance between Dany and Stannis.Danys claim and dragons will ensure his victory plus with all the gold and treasure she gets from Mereen,Volantis,Pentos,etc. can be used to pay the crowns debt.Also I think Dany has fond memories of Bravoss that plus its anti-slavery stance make conflict with her unlikely.Of course Queen Selyse would have to die but its fits into the whole Stannis as Azor Azai.

[Brucolac]

The guy just saw Stannis sitting around in ten feet of snow starving with too few troops to even fight a fraction of his opponents.   There is no reason to think he would ever be able to make good on his debts or the previous regimes because there is no way he can win his war.  Even with infinite financial backing, how is he supposed to win a war?  Are we supposed to believe there are enough mercenary armies that could be bought and transported safely in winter seas for him to defeat 50,000-100,000 men?   It was is a ridiculous thread to pursue, I wish he had stayed away from it and let Stannis do what he can with what he had-maybe defeat Bolton, gaining support from the wildlings, and helping out with the others.

Edited by Brucolac, 04 January 2012 - 12:43 AM.

[bemused]

  How can anyone presume to declare it's a ridiculous thread to pursue , when no one knows where it's leading ?

I think the Iron Bank is quite well informed about the situation(s) in the 7 kingdoms ,especially if they're connected to the FM, who are not just assassins, but intelligence gatherers. The Bank may well have a better idea of the overall picture in Westeros than any of the individual factions.The south is just beginning to see the beginnings of winter ,and they're mired in their own political wrangling and wars. Kevan was about to try to mend bridges with the Bank.. with him dead, that may not happen.Cersei was the one who completely defaulted on the loan. Would Aegon want to take on the Usurpers' debts ? Dany is bogged down in Meereen , and she now has dragons which has to give Braavos pause.

And if the Iron Bank is more than just a financial institution ( say maybe part of a triumverate of Sealord , Bank , House of B&W), they may not care about the eventual repayment of the debt , as much as that the indebtedness will be a deterrent to any actions against Braavos. We may see them forge agreements with all sides , knowing that whoever comes out on top will be indebted to Braavos. Whoever does come out on top will probably need help the way Westeros has been ravaged.Stannis at least grudgungly agrees to assume the debt , so if he wins, it will be a bonus.

We don't know enough about Braavos yet to know whether it feels any natural political affinity with any of the factions , but that could play a part as well. ( I hope we'll know eventually )

But it's certainly a bit premature to say it's ridiculous of GRRM to write that part of the story.

Edited by bemused, 04 January 2012 - 03:39 AM.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I agree completely that the iron bank will back numerous claimants to the throne.  Its just good business and the iron bank knows how to conduct good business (the iron bank will have its due).  It has been noted that they have removed negligent rulers in the past that have failed to repay their debts.

I expect similar visits to Aegon VI and Dany promising support in exchange for outrageous terms.  The Lannisters are absolute fools for not opening up a couple of their gold mines to pay of the iron bank.

[R'hllor-Is-The-Truth]

I think the Iron Bank is very interesting and i have no idea what they want other than money. I really can't wait to see what happens when Justin Massey goes to the Iron Bank, because i believe the Lannisters will regret not paying back the Iron Bank of Braavos.

I also believe that the Iron Bank has its fingers in the slave trade and would totally appose Daenerys if she ever came West.

[Lord Varys]

Tycho Nestoris was never in King's Landing. The representative there was one Noho Dimittis. He was the guy Gyles Rosby treated with in AFfC, who ended up being slighted by Cersei. After that happened, or even before when the Iron Throne started to keep the money back, the Iron Bank dispatched Tycho to the Wall to seek out Stannis.

I guess Noho realized early enough what Cersei was up to, and wrote to Braavos that they would need a different king to get their money back.

As for the profitability of this whole enterprise, it all depends how much money the Iron Bank has left to invest. And I guess they have huge amounts of money to spare/invest. Braavos is apparently the greatest naval power among the Free Cities, and they should own more than a decent share in world trade. And it's already confirmed that the Iron Bank is the greatest bank in all the Free Cities, and the only bank which is known to bring princes down.

My guess is that Stannis had to accept a obscenely high interest rate on his new loan, and considering his honor, the Iron Bank can be sure that he will pay them back to the last penny. And this in turn makes me quite convinced that Braavos itself might support Stannis in his coming war for the Iron Throne, since he now is a very good client of its bank. Even if the Faceless Men were not the power behind the Iron Bank, the Iron Bank in itself is beyond any doubt a very powerful institution in Braavos.

But it's quite odd that the Iron Bank building/facade is never once mentioned in any chapter set in Braavos. Surely Arya would have to know by now where it is. That is, if it is not the House of Black and White.

[Brucolac]

I think it is ridiculous because I am not going to be able to believe that the 50,000+ mercenaries that he would need to even have a shot actually exist, could be moved or used as a unified army.

[Tini]

Which is probably the reason that Stannis is not trying to round up the mercenaries himself but sends a trusted knight instead. He keeps rallying the North which is something nobody else can do. If mercenaries can be found to  come to his aid, so much the better. And he doesn't need 50000 mercenaries unless he is a really incompetent leader. In which case the mercenaries will not help him one bit.

I don't think the Bank backs more than one claimant at the moment. They are backing the one who might pay them back their investment later on. Stannis is heir of King Robert who ran up most of this debt, and he agreed to their terms, the Lannisters refused to pay. And Aegon and Dany come as conquerors. Conquerors usually don't feel responsible for their predecessor's debts.

[redriver]

Banks can and do back both or all sides in war.The major pay off is that the bank can control both the winners and losers with indebtedness.And that's without the necessary collateral that would have to be provided.I would imagine Stannis has secured the loan against Storm's End or Dragonstone or both.

As far as major backers of the Iron Bank are concerned,I think Magjister Illyrio is a likely candidate.Pentos based but, vastly wealthy.We know he has major interests in the affairs of Westeros and through him the Iron Bank could have secured investment in the Aegon side of things,and Dany for that matter.

Edited by redriver, 04 January 2012 - 02:04 PM.

[Knight of the Teabags]

I think if she ever takes  an active interest in seating herself on the Iron Throne (because she certainly hasn't so far), Daenerys is arguably one candidate its in the Iron Bank's best interest to do everything in their power to prevent becoming the ruler of Westeros. My reasoning on this is fairly simple; Daenerys has the means in her three dragons to make a credible attempt to refuse to pay interest on any pre-existing loans, furthermore from what we've seen of her thus far suggests it wouldn't be at all out of Dany's character for her to attempt to defy the Iron Bank and with the dragons she may even have a chance of succeeding,

Wondering on what the Iron Bank may already know about Dany - I wonder if it is considered prudent banking to entrust an important loan to someone whose financial history includes an incident where they acquired an army off some slavers on agreement of payment, however turned said army on those they acquired it from to avoid paying proceeding to rob and murder the slavers?

I may be wrong but if the Iron Bank never wants to see its loans to Westeros again I believe the quickest way to go about it would be put Daenerys Targaryen on the iron Throne!

Edited by Knight of the Teabags, 04 January 2012 - 03:06 PM.

[Brucolac]

As far as the Iron Bank could know, Dorne and Highgarden are both with the Lanisters.  That is 100,000+ men against Stannis and his 5000 men with no stores and really no support from anyone in the realm.  If they want a realistic chance of him winning the throne, they are going to have to hire and move enough men to allow him to compete and move food to him all winter as well.  It is an outrageous amount of money even if the men are out there just to put him on equal footing.

[Nev yn]

Quote

As far as the Iron Bank could know, Dorne and Highgarden are both with the Lanisters.

So they give the Gift to Myrcella, utilizing a FM that looks Dornish.  Or any of a hundred other ways to cause discord.  You're forgetting that the Iron Bank has a reputation for removing leaders, not just supporting rivals.  And they obviously have links to the FM, although how closely coupled the organizations are is very much a mystery.

[redriver]

Brucolac, on 04 January 2012 - 03:57 PM, said:

As far as the Iron Bank could know, Dorne and Highgarden are both with the Lanisters.  That is 100,000+ men against Stannis and his 5000 men with no stores and really no support from anyone in the realm.  If they want a realistic chance of him winning the throne, they are going to have to hire and move enough men to allow him to compete and move food to him all winter as well.  It is an outrageous amount of money even if the men are out there just to put him on equal footing.

Your forgetting that a nice,sensible bank like the Iron one will probably have asked for collateral such as Storm's End and/or Dragonstone for any loan.,

The gamble is Stannis' and he is compelled by what he sees as his duty to the realm.

Edited by redriver, 04 January 2012 - 07:55 PM.

[Brucolac]

Stannis doesn't have claim to those seats right now.  There is no collateral unless he wins.  Why would a bank gamble like that over a what has to be a smaller debt than they would incur from helping him-even if it is logistically possible for him to win the throne using sellswords.

[bemused]

The answer is , of course ,that the Iron Bank is more than just a bank. We don't know exactly how it functions and to what ends, but the hints that have been given, as early as in AGoT, about how it was foolish to mess with the Bank, how it will have it's due, give us reason to think of it as something more.Even that early statement seems mildly ominous. Since then, it's been observed that leaders who don't live up to their agreement with the Bank may pay with their lives.

In the meantime, we know that the FM act, in part, as intelligence agents..Why are all the bits of information Arya brings back to the House " good to know " ?..Before she begins her assassin specific training , she's being trained how to spy. If the HoB&W is strictly a religious institution , what purpose would that spying serve ?
We've seen an example of the kind of price exacted for FM services .. 2/3 of the person's wealth ,e.g... If, as has been hinted, the IB has been using FM on a regular basis to deal with royal defaulters ( often enough for it to become popular suspicion ) , how can it still be so rich ? Unless of course , it doesn't have to pay...unless it would just be the right hand passing money to the left..

And if the IB uses FM as enforcers , why wouldn't they make use of the FM's other area of expertise..intelligence..to get a very accurate picture of what's going on in each of the 7 kingdoms ?

No, the Iron Bank is obviously a political player, we just don't know their endgame yet.

ETA; It does make me think of the duality in the House of Black and White's name and as seen on it's door,white on one side black on the other with one face in the centre.

Edited by bemused, 04 January 2012 - 10:45 PM.

[jarl the climber]

1. The bravossi have no presence what so ever in Slavers Bay. They refuse to trade with them. We know that they fought a war with Pentos in which as one of the terms of peace they made Pentos outlaw slavery all though it does seem as though Pentos tries to get around it. They do impound the slave lysene ship carrying slaves from Hardhomme, even though slave are in high demand.I believe Bravoss"s main rival is Volantis if Dany destroys their fleet and sacks there city that would probaly be good for them.Some Bravosi may have interest in the slave trade but not on a large scale                                                                            2.Someone mention somewhere in one ofhe books that after the fall of Valyria,Volantis tries to conquer Essos or at least the western part and Bravoos the Storm king and the Targs of Dragonstone ally against them. There has been no mention what relationship the targs and Bravoos when the targs

ruled the 7 before. Admittedly they have a healthy respect for dragons
3.Dany seems to have very fond memories of Bravoos,Its the place that she lived with Ser darry before Viserys went insane And she had a house with a red door and a lemon tree.Dany rule makes descision based on sentiment so thats likely to have some influence on her.If she can actually ever get to pentos or wherever shes going, Pentos seems the best guess she is going.She is going to want get over to Westeros with as little bloodshed as possible if the Iron Bank can faciliate that for some gold she'll give them their gold.
4. Stannis can easisly raise 20,000-30,000 men in Bravoss maybe even hire a small Khalasar.
5.It could be that LF will declare for Stannis offer to marry Robert to Shireen,Robert will die soon after Shireen arrives in the Vale, Robert is to sickly to survive a sea voyage in winter, The FM assasinate Stannis, LF marries Shireen ,LF is the regent/King

[Brucolac]

I find Littlefinger much more believable as a contender than Stannis being backed by the Iron Bank.  He probably has money equal to what the actual debt is since he was embezzling and using crown funds in personal investments etc.  He might end up with the backing of one of the few intact realms too if he can get a hold of Harry.  As for Stannis, I just don't think you can buy the throne no matter how much money you throw at it.