184 replies to this topic

[jarl the climber]

Stannis has the best claim,if he can secure the north he will almost be invulnerable to attack, only northmen can fight a war in the North during the winter.Plus with the ships at White Harbor he is the only claimant in the east with the semblance of a fleet and he can definitly hire sellsails in Bravoos fighting at sea is there forte plus vaults of White Harbor are packed with silver which should let him to start making payments to the IB. If he can win over the Vale which is untouched by the war, he would probaly be the strongest claimant . The question is what is LF trying to do?

[Ashen Shugar]

Why would a bank gamble like that over a what has to be a smaller debt than they would incur from helping him-even if it is logistically possible for him to win the throne using sellswords.

Without assuming that there is more to the IB than we know so far the simplest answers I can see, would be:

a ) The bank simply wishes to(and can afford to) make an example of those who do not honour their debt.

b ) The banks aim is not to bring Stannis to the throne but to weaken his opponents.

c ) They are making offers to all sides and seeing who bites.

Edited by Ashen Shugar, 04 January 2012 - 11:12 PM.

[MtnLion]

Ghost714, on 03 January 2012 - 05:55 PM, said:

As to the whole Letter with the Black Seal, in the new released Theon chapter. Many people do not believe that is the letter from Jon, about the Karstark warning. They don't believe this because Of this part in the chapter

"A letter, Theon knew. Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. I know what that says, he thought, giggling."

People say how could Theon know what the letter from Jon says?......

MtnLion, on 03 January 2012 - 06:13 PM, said:

Theon knew about the treachery expected from the Karstarks from a conversation that Roose had in Winterfell (or perhaps earlier).

Ghost714, on 03 January 2012 - 08:59 PM, said:

It was Before Winterfell, it was at the Dreadfort.

"He had seen that cloak before, he knew, just as he had seen the man who wore it. At the Dreadfort. I remember. He sat and supped with Lord Ramsay and Whoresbane Umber, the night they brought Reek up from his cell."

What does that have to do with anything?
How would that mean he knows what the letter on Stannis's table says? The one I am talking about is the one I reference in my post above yours. The one Theon looks at with the Shiney black seal (from Jon)

Unless your just saying random facts... like Abel is Mance Rayder??? I really do not see your point in reference to what I posted???

I don't think it takes any special knowledge on Theon's part, other than knowing that Karstarks were set to betray Stannis.  Kartstark's maester from Bolton is being grilled, three cages, one empty, and Kartstarks being called for.  It seems pretty obvious that Jon is dropping a dime on the Karstarks, and it seems like something worth giggling about if you are in Theon's predicament.  Someone is definitely is tighter straights than Theon at the moment.

[jarl the climber]

This is what we know about the IB. If you take out a loan they expect you to it back. Cersei pissed them off big time, they are calling in loans all over Westeros.They want their damn money!On a side note is it possible that the Lannister gold mines are failing and that all the loans are just a complicated ruse created by LF and Tywin to conceal that.The main debtor of the iron throne is house lannister not IB.I never understood what Tywins relationship with Lf was.

[Jon of the Hudson]

Brucolac, on 04 January 2012 - 10:49 PM, said:

I find Littlefinger much more believable as a contender than Stannis being backed by the Iron Bank.  He probably has money equal to what the actual debt is since he was embezzling and using crown funds in personal investments etc.  He might end up with the backing of one of the few intact realms too if he can get a hold of Harry.  As for Stannis, I just don't think you can buy the throne no matter how much money you throw at it.

I'd be surprised if Littlefinger has a cellar full of gold coins somewhere that could pay off the Iron Throne's bank debt.  He rose by managing the crown's debts and making himself indispensable.  As long as he keeps leveraging himself into positions of greater power, immense personal wealth is sort of besides the point (and investments are probably a hassle to manage during civil war in a feudal society).

That said, it will be interesting to see if he has some connection to Tycho's mission in Westeros (or any other Iron Bank activity going forward).  Or if the Iron Bank is willing to back his ambitions.  On the one hand, he's a very familiar client.  On the other, he poses at least some credit risk (how well did Robert service all his loans, anyway?)

[Ghost714]

redriver, on 04 January 2012 - 07:54 PM, said:

Your forgetting that a nice,sensible bank like the Iron one will probably have asked for collateral such as Storm's End and/or Dragonstone for any loan.,

The gamble is Stannis' and he is compelled by what he sees as his duty to the realm.

But if Stannis loses, it's not like the Iron Bank can be like....hey sorry Iron Throne I know we financed the loser, but he promised us Storm's End, and Dragonstone and we are here to collect....as far as the Crown would be concerned, it wasn't Stannis's to offer for collateral. Why would the Iron Throne allow it....now Stannis might have put up Storms End as collateral if he wins the Throne. What I mean is, say Stannis wins, but defaults on his loan. Then in that case maybe the Iron Bank could keep his collateral. But if Stannis loses there is nothing saying the winner would allow the Iron Bank to keep his collateral, because as far as they winner is concerned, Stannis is a Usurper who threw away his lands and titles when he decided to make his claim for the Iron Throne

[Razha]

And what if the Iron Bank has already done own SWOT analysis  and cocnluded that Staniss is their best chance to get debts paid, Iron Throne was the one that seized payments, so why not?
I mean even if he looses they can still bet on another contender on similar terms..
Its a gamble - but they have enough resources and power to go for it.

[Brucolac]

If there are enough mercanary companies for him to hire to win the Iron throne against 100,000 enemies that show up, I am not going to think, hey nice to see stannis a contender again-all I am going to be thinking is bullshit.   It isn't a matter of if he is the best candidate, it is a matter of how could that even be possible.

[jarl the climber]

Let me bring this up and if I seem off topic bear wth me.What is the financial situation of the North and house Stark. We know Lord Manderly has large amounts of silver at White Harbor this is probaly due to the accumulation of custom duties and tarrifs over the last several years.There is evedince that there are productive silver mines in the north most Lords seem to accumulate thier wealth in silver(ifthey exist probaly in SE).I don't believe that the vaults at White Harbor constitue the entire wealth of the north.They don't generate wealth like the reach or the lannisters but they also don't waste money playing at war holding tournies or on pansy ass masquerade balls.Winter is coming and a wise ruler puts his money in the bank for the hard times ahead.And what bank does he use? perhaps an Iron Bank?It would come as no suprise if we find out that house Stark is a major depositor with longstanding ties.There an ancient house known for frugality.Since most of the Stark wealth is silver it is alot easier to put into a bank and make large transaction with paper than having to move a lot of silver around.They probaly have around 1-2 million dragons, the money doesn't just stay in the bank its used to faciliate loans to northern merchants,loan gurantrees,shipping insurance,etc.Its used for the good of all not just the Starks.Its why White Harbor is thriving and building ships while others are struggling,they havn't experienced the cut off of credit.Thats not to say house Stark has any say in the day to day affairs of the IB,it come as magor suprise to Ned that the Iron Throne is in so much debt.Also, Jon had some knowledge of the IB and its history.We have to assume that Maester leuwin taught him and Robb about economics and ehe role banks play in an economy.A smart ruler makes war with his armies and his gold.As Neds heir it would have fallen on Robb to handle the families wealth(or lack of it) and the ways it was used.Until Robbs will shows up and there is a legitimate lord or lord protector of winterfell we wont really know. But keeping this in mind the IB might have a very good reason for suppoting Stannis at this point in time as well as opposing the Bolton claim trough ramseys marriage to fake Arya(LF might have clued them in).The Lannister finances are not as strong as they seem.When Tywin was hand under Aerys he was known as a competent ruler who left the treasury full of gold.I don't see what Tywin gets by giving his grandchildren a bankrupt kingdom.Unless the lannister gold mines Are going dry.I believe he is a silent partner in many of Lfs schemes(buying grain when its cheap selling bread when its the price is high,wool,textiles,dying,Dany sees Lannisport goldsmiths all the way in Vaes Dothrak.).Tywin makes huge loans to the throne perpetuating a permanent state of indebtness the interest payments maikng up for the decline in his mines.Tywin saw that there would be war way before everyone else.Thats why his forces are so better armed and prepared at the beginning of the war.The scheme starts beaking apart when the war last to long.Right now KL is getting no income from the north the vale and dorne are holding back getting nothing from the iron islands who arev also damaging the reaches economy.Riverlands are completly devastated,the stormlands are in chaos.Why is Ser Kevan so woorried about having to pay some of the crowns debt with Lannister gold?As for LF he is an entertaining character but the Tyrells who have been in power for 300 years are considered upstarts in some circles in the world of Westeros where the ancient house measure thier age in the thousands LF is little more than a flash in the pan despite his ambition,cunning and wealth.

[jarl the climber]

As a side note I think Stannis can raise a ragtag force of bravossi sellswords and sellsails,Dotraki screamers,and Summert islanders in the neighborhood of 20,000 and that will be all he needs if he gets the Vale.He might have to fight at dragonstone, storms end KL before there is a negotiated settlement.2 or 3 battles tops,the others are coming.

[red roggo]

the iron bank are no fools. they would watch their investment closely. if that person watching the money for them is also the master of coin ,so much the better. littlefinger would be perfect for the banks needs, they could influence events in king's landing through littlefinger. littlefinger would have the resources of the bank behind him. the faceless men may be one of those resources. in this series grrm has gone into detail about characters bad, nasty, rank, foul breath. there are only 2 characters who try to have sweet smelling breath & they are littlefinger and the kindly man. the kindly man is bravosi ,could there be a connection between the two (father/son) or am i looking to hard at nothing at all?

[Ghost714]

red roggo, on 06 January 2012 - 11:33 PM, said:

the iron bank are no fools. they would watch their investment closely. if that person watching the money for them is also the master of coin ,so much the better. littlefinger would be perfect for the banks needs, they could influence events in king's landing through littlefinger. littlefinger would have the resources of the bank behind him. the faceless men may be one of those resources. in this series grrm has gone into detail about characters bad, nasty, rank, foul breath. there are only 2 characters who try to have sweet smelling breath & they are littlefinger and the kindly man. the kindly man is bravosi ,could there be a connection between the two (father/son) or am i looking to hard at nothing at all?

Wasn't Littlefinger's grand father from Braavos, not his dad?
I really don't think the kindly man is his dad. And I really don't think that Littlefinger is connected to the House of Black and White. Same goes for the Iron Bank, I believe he may bank with them, and he has most likely dealt with the Iron Bank as the Master of Coin for the Crown, but I think that's it.

Although I dont know..... I have always been curious how Littlefinger came to be a Ward of Hoster Tully at Riverrun. I mean it's not like Ned and Robert with Jon Arryn. How did such a petty lord get his kid in as a Ward for one of the 7 Great Houses?  I mean I would think only a child of a high Lord would get to become a Ward for one of the 7 Great Houses.
(The 7 great houses are Stark, Tully, Lannister, Baratheon, Martel, Tyrell, and Arryn)

Like I said just curious....

[Knight of the Teabags]

Ghost714, on 07 January 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

Although I dont know..... I have always been curious how Littlefinger came to be a Ward of Hoster Tully at Riverrun. I mean it's not like Ned and Robert with Jon Arryn. How did such a petty lord get his kid in as a Ward for one of the 7 Great Houses?  I mean I would think only a child of a high Lord would get to become a Ward for one of the 7 Great Houses.
(The 7 great houses are Stark, Tully, Lannister, Baratheon, Martel, Tyrell, and Arryn)

Like I said just curious....

Baelish's father befriended Hoster and Brynden Tully while they were all fighting together in the War of the Nine-Penny Kings, its mentioned in one of the early Catelyn chapters in AGoT. Now it doesn't actually say but the implication is that the elder Lord Baelish did Hoster some sort of favour during this period and when he later died leaving his heir, Petyr a young child Hoster felt he should repay the favour by taking Petyr in. What is also interesting is that Jon Arryn lets Hoster Tully ward Petyr Baelish, where arguably the feudal obligation was on Arryn himself as Petyr Baelish's liege and protector to raise an orphaned minor heir to one of his own bannerhouses. After all it is not uncommon for lesser houses to send their sons to be fostered by their ruling lord and serve as squires and the like, however for a son of lesser house to be made a ward of a great house outside his own realm is rather more uncommon.

Edited by Knight of the Teabags, 07 January 2012 - 07:03 AM.

[Ghost714]

Knight of the Teabags, on 07 January 2012 - 07:02 AM, said:

Baelish's father befriended Hoster and Brynden Tully while they were all fighting together in the War of the Nine-Penny Kings, its mentioned in one of the early Catelyn chapters in AGoT. Now it doesn't actually say but the implication is that the elder Lord Baelish did Hoster some sort of favour during this period and when he later died leaving his heir, Petyr a young child Hoster felt he should repay the favour by taking Petyr in. What is also interesting is that Jon Arryn lets Hoster Tully ward Petyr Baelish, where arguably the feudal obligation was on Arryn himself as Petyr Baelish's liege and protector to raise an orphaned minor heir to one of his own bannerhouses. After all it is not uncommon for lesser houses to send their sons to be fostered by their ruling lord and serve as squires and the like, however for a son of lesser house to be made a ward of a great house outside his own realm is rather more uncommon.

Thank you for clearing that up for me.

[Tini]

Knight of the Teabags, on 07 January 2012 - 07:02 AM, said:

Baelish's father befriended Hoster and Brynden Tully while they were all fighting together in the War of the Nine-Penny Kings, its mentioned in one of the early Catelyn chapters in AGoT. Now it doesn't actually say but the implication is that the elder Lord Baelish did Hoster some sort of favour during this period and when he later died leaving his heir, Petyr a young child Hoster felt he should repay the favour by taking Petyr in. What is also interesting is that Jon Arryn lets Hoster Tully ward Petyr Baelish, where arguably the feudal obligation was on Arryn himself as Petyr Baelish's liege and protector to raise an orphaned minor heir to one of his own bannerhouses. After all it is not uncommon for lesser houses to send their sons to be fostered by their ruling lord and serve as squires and the like, however for a son of lesser house to be made a ward of a great house outside his own realm is rather more uncommon.

It was not Jon Arryn's duty as liege and protector to raise an orphaned minor, not even an orphaned son of his own bannerman. An unimportant bannerman, at that. As liege and protector, it was his duty to make sure that little Petyr was taken care of. Hoster Tully offered to take the boy in, and Jon Arryn did not object. His duty was fulfilled.

I have no idea of the timeline here, but if Petyr Baelish was still a very small boy when his father died and left him orphaned, I can see why Hoster Tully would take the boy instead of Jon Arryn. Hoster Tully had a family, and children in the same age range as little Petyr. Jon Arryn was childless, and possibly single. That didn't keep Jon Arryn from looking after Robert Baratheon and Ned Stark. Of course those two were of much higher birth than Petyr Baelish but I suspect that they came to Jon Arryn when they were older, at least old enough to be squires. And Ned, at least, wasn't orphaned.

Edited by Tini, 07 January 2012 - 05:24 PM.

[jon rr stark]

Sforzando, on 02 January 2012 - 10:02 AM, said:

You're right, and the Faceless Men just don't seem like they'd have the interest. Unless everything they've said to Arya is a lie, of course. Maybe the Iron Bank is just the Iron Bank. But they seem far too powerful and... well, some of their decisions just seem odd.

They gave the Night's Watch food for the entire winter and gave three of their ships away just so they could get to Stannis. Now, I appreciate their information may not have been particularly up to date, but let's face it, Stannis is not a credible contender for the Iron Throne at the moment. He has a 50/50 chance of becoming lord of the North, and that's about it, the northern lords don't particularly like him and his god anyway and he will not sit easy if he wins Winterfell.

For Stannis to march south, even with the Iron Bank's support, would be madness. His men don't like his god to say the least, don't want to embark on another bloody crusade southward, and will follow Rickon the second he is revealed, most of his southerners are dead as is his main ally at the Wall, he has wildlings and possibly Others at his back, and worse, he will find very little support south of the Neck. The only reason anyone would support him in the south is if King's Landing is in such chaos that the lords can be persuaded that a just, fair, strong ruler is what's needed, and in that case they will turn to Aegon.

The Iron Bank would have been far, far, FAR better throwing in their lot with Aegon. With the support of Tarly, Hightower and Martell (the three houses I think are most likely to join him) he could be sitting on the Iron Throne before the end of TWOW. And then he could start paying the bankers their infernal debts back.

Yes but why would Aegon wantto  pay what are Lannister Baratheon debts. The Iron bank also have a reputation of putting who they want on the throne.Stannis has no choice but to agree to their terms. Aegon will have support regardless of the Iron bank. Also he has just been unveiled. I think the point was also made that if you cross the Iron bank you pay the price. So the Lannisters and their allies must take a hit to learn the lesson.

[Ghost714]

jon rr stark, on 07 January 2012 - 06:39 PM, said:

Yes but why would Aegon wantto  pay what are Lannister Baratheon debts. The Iron bank also have a reputation of putting who they want on the throne.Stannis has no choice but to agree to their terms. Aegon will have support regardless of the Iron bank. Also he has just been unveiled. I think the point was also made that if you cross the Iron bank you pay the price. So the Lannisters and their allies must take a hit to learn the lesson.

Tycho explainst to Jon in ADwD, that if you want to work with Iron Bank as the New king of Westeros, then you have to take over payments of the Crown debt, no matter who was King before you. And if the Iron Bank felt the same way as you do, as far as asking why would Aegon want to pay the debt of the Lannisters, and Baratheons, maybe that's why they chose Stannis, knowing he is to desperate to refuse. Also it seems like at they time, they  just might not have known about Aegon, when they decided to back Stanny.

[History of Westeros]

Brucolac, on 02 January 2012 - 11:41 PM, said:

I really didn't like the involvement of them.  Backing Stannis to the extent of being able to win a war would easily cost more than the debt already incurred.  Any savvy banker knows not to throw good money after bad.

Remember that the crown was 6 million in debt (probably 1-2 million of that to the Iron Bank) at the very beginning of aGoT.  So the Crown's debt is that plus whatever debt they incurred from the War of Five Kings... I could easily see that being significantly more than their committment to Stannis.

[Tini]

Add to that the image loss if they fail to act against Westeros defaulting on its debts. Princes and kings everywhere might decide to follow that example. As long as it doesn't bankrupt them, they'll act against Cersei.

[Beneath the Gold]

Interesting. I've never thought about this until now.  With his Braavosi roots so clearly laid out, I could see Littlefinger having something to do with the Iron Bank. If so, the question is: how much and for how long? Was his grandfather an agent living in modest recluse, making LF's eventual career choice an easy one?