408 replies to this topic

[Angalin]

panther, on 04 January 2012 - 11:36 AM, said:

Nice gift from GRRM. Two thoughts:

• Perhaps Manderly will meet Stannis at the weirwood. This would be a good way to get them together.
  
• What is the letter on the table that Stannis is reading sealed with black wax that Theon knows the contents of?

ManyFacedOne, on 04 January 2012 - 11:44 AM, said:

1. Manderly on ice is a sure way to make it fall through. So no.
2. The one that Jon sent him to warn him of the Karstarks' treachery.

[kissdbyfire]

Would it be possible for Bran (or BR) to skinchange into a raven in flight and change its course?

[Eyron I]

I was thinking about the impact on raven mail too, Bran could steer the ravens to wherever he wanted right?

I think someone wrote in the last thread (or the first, I've lost track) about the implications on mail delivery in Westeros

All sorts of secrets could end up in the wrong places...

[kissdbyfire]

Eira, on 04 January 2012 - 01:35 PM, said:

I was thinking about the impact on raven mail too, Bran could steer the ravens to wherever he wanted right?
I think someone wrote in the last thread (or the first, I've lost track) about the implications on mail delivery in Westeros

Just so. I think the whole mail delivery bit is one of the most important info in the chapter.

Eira, on 04 January 2012 - 01:35 PM, said:

All sorts of secrets could end up in the wrong places...

Or the 'right' (better?) places?

[Ice Turtle]

Eira, on 04 January 2012 - 01:35 PM, said:

I think someone wrote in the last thread (or the first, I've lost track) about the implications on mail delivery in Westeros

All sorts of secrets could end up in the wrong places...

The secrets are already being usurped, it is known, or maybe I just don't trust maesters.

[Eyron I]

Kissdbyfire, on 04 January 2012 - 01:48 PM, said:

Just so. I think the whole mail delivery bit is one of the most important info in the chapter.

Or the 'right' (better?) places?

Exactly! It feels like the north is powering up.

I loved to see the ravens talk, and that bit of info we got on them was like a huge relief to me (I'm really concerned about the small matters )

I do wonder what types of info the ravens are carrying (generally), the big secrets would not be trusted to them, but now that makes no matter... The birds have ears so the secrets will reach Bran and BR anyway, if they can get close enough to listen.

lazy turtle, on 04 January 2012 - 01:48 PM, said:

The secrets are already being usurped, it is known, or maybe I just don't trust maesters.

In some houses the maesters even writes the letters for their lord and lady (and reads them before handing them over) so they definitely know stuff, and probably pass it along sometimes.

[Michael Jon Snow]

I can't quote from the previous thread on this device, but to address the "why" Stannis needs the north when they can only provide 10k swords. My thoughts:
1. the castles at the wall are not well defendable from the south. He can't afford to have hostiles at his back when the battle starts.
2. he needs the support of the north to provision and feed the army he is assembling. Those provisions will come from/thru the north.
3. 10k men defending their land and families are worth a lot more than 20k sell swords.
4. As others have said, once the battle with the others is done, they become important for his claim to the iron throne.

[Ghost714]

At the end of the Theon Forum part 2, people were talking about the semantics of Jon "deserting" or not.

TINI posted this,

"It is not desertion if your commander orders you to go south on Watch business (like Dareon, Sam, and Aemon), nor is it desertion if you go visit your family (like Benjen Stark), nor is it desertion If you fulfill your orders To infiltrate the enemy (Jon ). What is important is that you have permission of your commander, and that the Watch is not abandoned by all brothers at the same time. If Jon gives permission to go to Winterfell, it's not desertion as he the Lord Commander. But as Lord Commander it is his duty to make sure enough Brothers remain at the Wall so that their Watch will not be abandoned."

Jon decided that not enough brothers are left to be sent to Winterfell. Thats why going to Winterfell would be desertion not because the would be wreaking vengeance on some clown.

I had to re-write that post because it wouldn't let me quote it, nor could I copy and past it. (so sorry if there are any mistakes)

My reply to that is.
I completely agree!

Jon going to Winterfell with Wildlings would not be desertion. But it would have been for his brothers, had he asked his brothers to go, because he would need to take, like all of them, and that would leave the Wall unmaned. Again it's not desertion because Jon has permission to leave the Wall (from himself as Lord Commander) and it isn't "desertion" if you leave the Wall with the pretense of returning to it.
Jon planned to come back, he had permission, and he was still leaving the Wall with men to man it.

As to the argument about him breaking his oath, because he took part in matters of the realm.

Thats not in the oath, it's just tradition. So Jon is not an Oathbreaker!!!!!

Edited by Ghost714, 04 January 2012 - 05:07 PM.

[Feather Crystal]

Three things in the Theon chapter support my theory that the letter to Jon at the Wall is a fake:

1) I think its very telling that Stannis tells Ser Justin, ""In Braavos you may hear that I am dead.  It may even be true.  You shall find my sellswords nonetheless." I think this is proof that Stannis plans to fake his death.

2) Furthermore, it was queer of Stannis to ask the Maester, ""A maester's raven flies to one place, and one place only.  Is that correct?"

3) And, finally, Theon's interaction with Stannis, ""The north remembers.  The Red Wedding, Lady Hornwood's fingers, the sack of Winterfell, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square, they remember all of it."  Bran and Rickon.  They were only miller's boys.  "Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths.  They will come for you, but separately.  Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them.  He wants his bride back.  He wants his Reek."  Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper.  "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

I haven't a theory as to how this all works together, but I look forward to reading it!

[bemused]

Going back to the previous thread , someone posed the question / made the assertion that Jon must have believed he was breaking his oath, because of his thoughts and what he said in the sheildhall. I disagree . What he thought was ," If this is oath breaking. the crime is mine and mine alone. " ... What he said was " I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows "..I think that "if" should be stressed every which way.. IF...it implies that he doesn't think oathbreaking is involved, but realizes that the less thoughtful ,more hidebound members of the watch , such as Marsh , will.

He doesn't have time to try to chivy them around to his way of thinking ( which he has every good reason to believe would be impossible ). He's offered Marsh many compelling arguments in regard to the wildlings and met a closed mind every time.So as LC he excuses them from taking part ( and in any case, he wouldn't want to leave the wall undefended ) But as LC it's within his authority to decide to lead a ranging , or to answer any direct threat to the NW or his person.

On the matter of how large an army Stannis will need, I don't think we can settle on a fixed count. It's implied that the North may have more men available than is apparent , which may well gravitate to him depending on what happens at Winterfell, and we don't know what will happen to his southern opposition in the meantime. How far are they going to deplete their resources fighting each other before they ever get to engaging Stannis ?

ETA..Ghost..I see you were posting while I was still typing..obviously , I agree.

Edited by bemused, 04 January 2012 - 04:47 PM.

[Ice Turtle]

One small question why Stannis tells Massey this:  "The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

Somehow this seem to me as the sellswords are meant to protect the Wall, more than win the Iron Throne. Still, I'm not sure how much good the sellswords will be. One meeting with the Others and half of them will desert and run as South as the South goes.

One the other note, I'm not sure that Jon's loan was such a good plan. He will have gold in winter when the food will be the most expensive, and have to pay at spring, where it will again gain much more value. One the brighter side, I don't even  want to imagine how expensive will wood become in Braavos in Winter.  So maybe the North and NW will cope somehow.

[Ghost714]

bemused, on 04 January 2012 - 04:36 PM, said:

Going back to the previous thread , someone posed the question / made the assertion that Jon must have believed he was breaking his oath, because of his thoughts and what he said in the sheildhall. I disagree . What he thought was ," If this is oath breaking. the crime is mine and mine alone. " ... What he said was " I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows "..I think that "if" should be stressed every which way.. IF...it implies that he doesn't think oathbreaking is involved, but realizes that the less thoughtful ,more hidebound members of the watch , such as Marsh , will.

He doesn't have time to try to chivy them around to his way of thinking ( which he has every good reason to believe would be impossible ). He's offered Marsh many compelling arguments in regard to the wildlings and met a closed mind every time.So as LC he excuses them from taking part ( and in any case, he wouldn't want to leave the wall undefended ) But as LC it's within his authority to decide to lead a ranging , or to answer any direct threat to the NW or his person.

On the matter of how large an army Stannis will need, I don't think we can settle on a fixed count. It's implied that the North may have more men available than is apparent , which may well gravitate to him depending on what happens at Winterfell, and we don't know what will happen to his southern opposition in the meantime. How far are they going to deplete their resources fighting each other before they ever get to engaging Stannis ?

ETA..Ghost..I see you were posting while I was still typing..obviously , I agree.

I appreciate everything you(bemused) and TINI have posted about this argument. I have been arguing this same thing for weeks now on other forums. It is so awesome that when this topic came up, I wasn't the only one advocating Jon's innocence in regards to being a "deserter" or an "oathbreaker". So thank you for your guises brilliant insight to the topic!!!

[Prestayn of Prestayn]

Melisandra, on 04 January 2012 - 04:36 PM, said:

Three things in the Theon chapter support my theory that the letter to Jon at the Wall is a fake:

1) I think its very telling that Stannis tells Ser Justin, ""In Braavos you may hear that I am dead.  It may even be true.  You shall find my sellswords nonetheless." I think this is proof that Stannis plans to fake his death.

2) Furthermore, it was queer of Stannis to ask the Maester, ""A maester's raven flies to one place, and one place only.  Is that correct?"

3) And, finally, Theon's interaction with Stannis, ""The north remembers.  The Red Wedding, Lady Hornwood's fingers, the sack of Winterfell, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square, they remember all of it."  Bran and Rickon.  They were only miller's boys.  "Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths.  They will come for you, but separately.  Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them.  He wants his bride back.  He wants his Reek."  Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper.  "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

Maybe Stannis will order Mance to write the infamous letter. Mance is for sure more capable of writing in this sorta poetic style than Ramsay or Stannis are. This might also explain the many references to wildlings - the wildling babe, the wildling princess - which are not really of special interest to Stannis or Ramsay.
Perhaps Mance got inspired by the speech Melisandre gave at "his burning":

Quote

“FREE FOLK!
Your false gods cannot help you.
Your false horn did not save you.
Your false king brought you only death, despair,
defeat … but here stands the true king. BEHOLD HIS GLORY!”

Sounds pretty similar to "Your false king is dead. ... . Your false king’s friends are dead...." in the letter.

Ramsays letters, however, seem to be very noticeable in another way:

Quote

Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, it read, in a huge, spiky hand. The brown ink came away in flakes when Jon brushed it with his thumb.

The brown ink is obviously blood, and it fits Ramsay to write his messages in the blood of one of his victims. About the appearance of the False-King-is-Dead-Letter,unfortunately we are nothing told, however, as discovered in this thread there is a little hint that it is written with ordinary maester's ink:

Quote

“Might be all a skin o’ lies.” Tormund scratched under his beard. “If I had me a nice goose quill
and a pot o’ maester’s ink, I could write down that me member was long and thick as me arm, wouldn’t
make it so.”

Ramsay might have called often enough for "his Reek" in Winterfell, enough for Mance or anyone nearby to add such a line to the letter giving it a more Ramsay-like appearance. Stannis might want to bring with such a letter chaos and disarray into the night watch, with the eventual goal to take control of the night watchs men. However, he still has many troops and his Queen and Daughter at the wall, which contradicts this idea a bit. Also planning such a machiavellian plot seems to be a bit out of character for Stannis, but perhaps he has developed new skills in recent times, in contrary to Jon and Dany.

Another possibility of course is that Mance writes the letter on Melisandres command.
Or all of this about Stannis winning is wishful thinking and it is Ramsay who tortures Mance to get a fine letter to Jon composed.

Edited by Prestayn of Prestayn, 04 January 2012 - 06:46 PM.

[Ghost714]

lazy turtle, on 04 January 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

One the other note, I'm not sure that Jon's loan was such a good plan. He will have gold in winter when the food will be the most expensive, and have to pay at spring, where it will again gain much more value. One the brighter side, I don't even  want to imagine how expensive will wood become in Braavos in Winter.  So maybe the North and NW will cope somehow.

Jon making a loan with the IBoB(Iron Bank of Braavos), wouldn't be a good idea under normal sercumstances. But the sercumstances were by no means NORMAL. Jon even basically says that the Watch was being raped in the agreement of the loan. But the Watch must have food, same goes for the Wildlings. If they want to have any hope of fighting the Others, they must first have food to survive. As far as paying back the loan, Jon figures he can figure out that part after winter(if there is even a world left).

Jon had a good plan to start making payments on the loan, when he starts gathering the Wildling "tresures" as they go through the Wall.

For all we know Jon figured that if they could save the Realm from the Others, then maybe the people of the Realm would donate gold and silver and stuff to the NW, as a thanks for saving there arses. That way the NW can pay back the loan. If Jon planned to send out ravens to the major places in the realm, explaining about the loan, then I could see that happening.

Again maybe Jon was thinking or would have thought about something like that..... Some people might say, the realm never helped when they asked before(when Mormont was the LC). If Stannis wins the Crown, than he can verify what the Watch did for the Realm (because Stannis would be appart of the NW saving the Realm)
Or for those who believe Dany will be involved in the battle against the Others (it could be her and Stannis), if all these people are involved in the Battle against The Others, then the Realm can't deny it happened. It wouldn't be like before when mainstream Westeros didn't believe the NW, when they pleaded for help.

Or who knows it could be your idea that the NW and the North trades wood, for Payment of the loan, and for food and supply's. That would put more merit on the situation when Sam couldn't get wood in Braavos, because he didn't think firewood, would be so expensive there.

Either way Jon's decision to make the loan was a good plan. Again given all the sercumstances he was faced with.

[Feather Crystal]

Quote

The brown ink is obviously blood, as mentioned before in this thread there are no hints for blood or Ramsays special script in the infamous letter. Ramsay might have called often enough for "his Reek" in Winterfell, enough for Mance or anyone nearby to add such a line to the letter giving it a more Ramsay-like appearance. Stannis might want to bring with such a letter chaos and disarray into the night watch, with the eventual goal to take control of the night watchs men. However, he still has many troops and his Queen and Daughter at the wall, which contradicts this idea a bit.

I think the brown ink is blood considering this:
"Your Grace," a second voice said softly.  "Pardon, but your ink has frozen."  The Braavosi, Theon knew.  What was his name?  Tycho... Tycho something... "Perhaps a bit of heat... ?"
"I know a quicker way."  Stannis drew his dagger.  For an instant Theon thought that he meant to stab the banker.  You will never get a drop of blood from that one, my lord, he might have told him.  The king laid the blade of the knife against the ball of his left thumb, and slashed.  "There.  I will sign in mine own blood.  That ought to make your masters happy."

[Ghost714]

Prestayn of Prestayn, on 04 January 2012 - 05:59 PM, said:

Maybe Stannis will order Mance to write the infamous letter. Mance is for sure more capable of writing in this sorta poetic style than Ramsay or Stannis are. This might also explain the many references to wildlings - the wildling babe, the wildling princess - which are not really of special interest to Stannis or Ramsay. Ramsays letters seem to be very noticeable anyway:



The brown ink is obviously blood, as mentioned before in this thread there are no hints for blood or Ramsays special script in the infamous letter. Ramsay might have called often enough for "his Reek" in Winterfell, enough for Mance or anyone nearby to add such a line to the letter giving it a more Ramsay-like appearance. Stannis might want to bring with such a letter chaos and disarray into the night watch, with the eventual goal to take control of the night watchs men. However, he still has many troops and his Queen and Daughter at the wall, which contradicts this idea a bit.

Stannis likes and respects Jon, why in the seven hells would he want to "bring chaos and disarray" to the Watch??? Especially after Jon Gave him almost everything he asked for?? Jon gave him a way to gain 3 thousand men to his cause, I really can't see Stannis repaying him by doing this to the Nights Watch?
Here is a quote from the new Theon chapter,


   "Oh, and take the Stark girl with you.  Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch."  Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him.  "A true king pays his debts."

In the quote above, Stannis is referring to the letter in this quote,

"  The king plucked a parchment off the table and squinted over it.  A letter, Theon knew.  Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. "

Obviously the letter is from Jon warning Stannis about Karstark (brought to Stannis by Tycho). Stannis is wanting to send "Arya" to Jon, as a thanks for Jon Warning Stannis.  This action does not seem like it would be from a man who is wanting to "bring chaos and disarray" to the Nights Watch. Stannis knows Jon can mean the support of the North why would he want to piss of Jon???

I really can't understand why you would think Stannis would do that.

Stannis would not sacrifice getting the North behind him, just for the few men of the Nights Watch.

Not to mention Stannis knows the Nights Watch is needed to fight the Others, not to fight for him.

Edited by Ghost714, 05 January 2012 - 01:04 AM.

[Pliskin]

We agree that the sender of the letter being anyone else than Ramsay doesn't make sense.
Ramsay wrote the letter after being misled by Stannis, one way or another, or Ramsay is bluffing.
But according to the hints in Theon's chapter, the first one is more likely.

[Ashen Shugar]

The gods sure are taking a dump on Jeyne. I don't know if she will bump into Arya but people have been saying Arya would not kill her because she wouldn't hate her that much despite the bullying she got from Jeyne. I agree, but she could kill her for other reasons.

Jeyne has had her family wiped out, sent to a brothel, trained to be someone else, then sent to marry Ramsay( which would make everything else she has suffered so far seem like a holiday.), then in her escape she gets used to break theons fall(lol), and looks like she might loose her nose or part of it. If Arya learns all this she might decided Jeyne is worthy of the "gift".

[bemused]

Or , leaving Arya out of it, if Jeyne should make her way to the HoB&W as Arya Stark ,seeking the gift, and should her wish be granted, what will that mean for Arya ?

Edited by bemused, 04 January 2012 - 10:59 PM.

[ManyFacedOne]

Nothing. Unless for some reason Arya takes her face and assumes Jeyne's identity there by becoming Arya Stark again as Jeyne.