408 replies to this topic

[Feather Crystal]

Ghost714, on 16 January 2012 - 02:36 PM, said:

In the new "gift" chapter, through Theon's POV we are inside his head, and we the readers get to read what he is thinking. So as to your question, of when Theon first knew Arnolf Karstark was with Bolton, it was the very first Reek chapter in ADwD. I'm also referring to this quote from the new "gift" chapter.

"Bent and twisted, the castellan of Karhold leaned heavily on his cane as he made his way to the table.  Lord Arnolf's cloak was fine grey wool, bordered in black sable and clasped with a silver starburst.  A rich garment, Theon thought, on a poor excuse for a man.  He had seen that cloak before, he knew, just as he had seen the man who wore it.  At the Dreadfort.  I remember.  He sat and supped with Lord Ramsay and Whoresbane Umber, the night they brought Reek up from his cell."

Thank you for finding this passage for me! It's the one I was thinking of and it was driving me crazy! So it was Lord Arnolf and not the Maester who had the fine grey wood cloak. Too bad. I was thinking this was the cloak that was concealed on the  Maester. Well, so much for that!

Do you also know the book and page number where Reek would have seen Arnolf supping with Ramsay and Umber? I'd like to re-read that passage as well.

Back to the Theon gift chapter, Arnolf is waiting, yes, but he asks if he can "break fast" with Stannis. This question suggests to me that Arnolf's ruse isn't totally in the open yet. For Stannis, seeing and speaking with the Maester is the confirmation (of the impending deceit) he needs and I would expect the Karstark men would be seized and taken into custody shortly after.

Edited by Melisandra, 16 January 2012 - 02:47 PM.

[Glyn Tarvoke]

Tini, on 16 January 2012 - 05:59 AM, said:

The Wall has a problem bigger than lack of men, and that is lack of trustworthy men. Sending Maester Tybald to the Wall would increase this problem.

If the Citadel even allows Maester Tybald to be sent to the Wall for following orders given to him by legitimate sources, they would insist that Tybald is a maester, and post him to the Wall as replacement for Maester Aemon.

While the Watch needs a maester, they need a maester they can trust. Tybald could be trusted less than Aliser Thorne, and he would be given a position where he'll be privy to all correspondence sent by raven. He would also be advisor to the Lord Commander due to his position. Great idea.

Sending criminals to the Wall is not advisable at the moment. Any Lannister/Bolton supporter sent to the Wall makes it more likely that Stannis will lose the support of the Night's Watch. If he hasn't already.

It wld be a risk reward type of deal.  True the NW needs devoted, honest,competent men.  Since those are lacking--even at the Wall--one needs make do with what's available.  Getting the men to the Wall is also a logistical issue.  There's a few characters who were on their way to the wall but haven't made it yet (the Tully knights who Jaime Lannister allowed to take the black)

Seems to me in the new Theon Stannis is sending folk to the wall already and he knows Jon needs men badly.  My guess is Stannis sends a few to the Wall with instructions for them to take the black.  

I'm not so sure the Bolton master should be viewed as so scummy.   After all, he works for Bolton--not a man to be crossed--and was sworn to serve the Dreadfort.  So he has a reasonable  excuse for his actions.

[Ghost714]

Melisandra, on 16 January 2012 - 02:44 PM, said:

Thank you for finding this passage for me! It's the one I was thinking of and it was driving me crazy! So it was Lord Arnolf and not the Maester who had the fine grey wood cloak. Too bad. I was thinking this was the cloak that was concealed on the  Maester. Well, so much for that!

Do you also know the book and page number where Reek would have seen Arnolf supping with Ramsay and Umber? I'd like to re-read that passage as well.

Back to the Theon gift chapter, Arnolf is waiting, yes, but he asks if he can "break fast" with Stannis. This question suggests to me that Arnolf's ruse isn't totally in the open yet. For Stannis, seeing and speaking with the Maester is the confirmation (of the impending deceit) he needs and I would expect the Karstark men would be seized and taken into custody shortly after.

Yeah, Arnolf had the cloak you were thinking of,  
Here is a quote from Stannis, from the new gift chapter,
"Confine this grey wretch to one of the huts until I decide what is to be done with him."
That quote leads me to believe that Maester Tybald, was only wearing a normal maester's robe.

The page number for when "Reek" see's Ramsey supping with Arnolf Karstark, and Umber is, page # 166 in the hardback edition of ADwD, and again it's the very first "Reek" chapter.

As to the last part of your post,

Arnolf asks to "break fast" with Stannis, because Arnolf at this time doesn't know, that Stannis knows about him. So Arnolf is trying to "play it cool" and act like everything is completely normal, at this time when he requests to "break fast" with Stannis.

And I don't really think talking to Tybald is what confirmed Karstark's deceit for Stannis. What I mean is, I believe Stannis was sure of the deceit, before talking to Tybald. Yes, Stannis talking to Tybald probably double confirmed his belief of Karstark's deceit, but I believe he was sure of it, from speaking to Tycho, and reading Jon's letter. The main reason why Stannis talked to Tybald was to question him about the letter sent to Winterfell . Stannis suspected Tybald sent a raven to Winterfell, Stannis just did not know what was in the letter, that the raven took to Winterfell. I'm referring to these quotes from the new Theon chapter,
 "Answer me.  If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?"  The king leaned forward.  "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"

"What I want to know is what was in the letter that you sent to Winterfell.  Did you perchance tell Lord Bolton where to find us?"

The first quote to me, means that Stannis suspected the ravens went to Winterfell, he was just watching the maester's reactions, to make sure his suspicion was correct.

And the second quote to me, shows that Stannis obviously suspected Tybald of telling Roose where Stannis and his men are at, he was just making sure. Because Tybald admits to sending Roose a map

This is a bit off topic but,
Now Roose has a map telling him were to find Stannis. Stannis can use that to his complete advantage. Because Roose does not know, that Stannis knows, that Roose knows where Stannis is. Roose will have his men follow the map, and Stannis can make them think that he is where their map says he is, and then BAM, AMBUSH BABY. Also I am a firm believer that Stannis will some how trick his enemies, into coming onto the frozen lake. I bet it's solid enough to ride a horse on. But Stannis could ambush the Boltons, by forcing them to ride on to the lake that is possibly covered in snow or something, and they could literally be walking on rotten ice. Meaning Stannis tampers with the ice, by cutting the outlines of holes, so when the enemy steps into one of those outlines, the ice then goes down from there waight causing them to fall in. (or something like that)
I'm not sure how exactly, but Stannis has a golden opportunity to use that lake to his advantage. And I believe this quote means he will,
"We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage.
     "The ground?" said Theon.  "What ground?  Here?  This misbegotten tower?  This wretched little village?  You have no high ground here, no walls to hide beyond, no natural defenses."
     "Yet."  
     "Yet," both ravens screamed in unison.

Sorry this post got pretty long.

[bemused]

While Stannis' forces have been stuck there starving , the northern troops , at least , have been ice fishing....So much fishing has been done , that Asha and Alysane note that the lakes have been fished out. That's a lot of fishing holes. and snow has continued to fall. Probably a few people could venture out afoot , carefully. But many men on horseback ? I wouldn't want to be one of them.

Stannis will be aware of this,  since he's spent so much time brooding atop his watchtower.

Edited by bemused, 17 January 2012 - 04:17 AM.

[3CityApache]

Ghost714, on 16 January 2012 - 05:42 PM, said:

Now Roose has a map telling him were to find Stannis. Stannis can use that to his complete advantage. Because Roose does not know, that Stannis knows, that Roose knows where Stannis is. Roose will have his men follow the map, and Stannis can make them think that he is where their map says he is, and then BAM, AMBUSH BABY. Also I am a firm believer that Stannis will some how trick his enemies, into coming onto the frozen lake.

Yes, I think that's exactly what is going to happen.
And I completely agree, that maester's questioning was all about confirming sending a letter with their position to Winterfell, not about confirming Karstark's treason, Stannis was already sure of it as hell.

[Ghost714]

bemused, on 17 January 2012 - 04:09 AM, said:

While Stannis' forces have been stuck there starving , the northern troops , at least , have been ice fishing....So much fishing has been done , that Asha and Alysane note that the lakes have been fished out. That's a lot of fishing holes. and snow has continued to fall. Probably a few people could venture out afoot , carefully. But many men on horseback ? I wouldn't want to be one of them.

Stannis will be aware of this,  since he's spent so much time brooding atop his watchtower.

I live in the midwest, Kansas to be specific, and my whole life my family has had horses. For the most part our horses drink water out of a pond. And every winter, I have to "chop ice" so the horses can get water when it freezes. Basically I have to chop holes in the ice, with an axe, and during the worst part of winter this has to be done every day, because the holes re-freeze over night.

My point is, I am sure winter in The North of Westeros, is worse then winter in Kansas. So I Do believe Stannis will get his "ice Lake trap" idea, from seeing the holes that were made from his army fishing out the lake. But I don't think he will be able to use those same holes, because those holes would have re-frozen by now. Because the lake was "fished out" days ago. At the very least, Stannis will need have the "ice fishing holes" re-cut, no longer than 12 hours before the Bolton army goes out on the lake. Otherwise I believe the ice would be to solid to break, when the Bolton army goes on the lake(because it is so bloody cold in the North).

So I guess what I am trying to say is, this plan could take some very good timing to work right.

[Feather Crystal]

It does appear that Maester Tybald is a new character introduced in the gift chapter: http://awoiaf.wester...ndex.php/Tybald

[Feather Crystal]

Ghost714, on 17 January 2012 - 06:06 AM, said:

I live in the midwest, Kansas to be specific, and my whole life my family has had horses. For the most part our horses drink water out of a pond. And every winter, I have to "chop ice" so the horses can get water when it freezes. Basically I have to chop holes in the ice, with an axe, and during the worst part of winter this has to be done every day, because the holes re-freeze over night.

My point is, I am sure winter in The North of Westeros, is worse then winter in Kansas. So I Do believe Stannis will get his "ice Lake trap" idea, from seeing the holes that were made from his army fishing out the lake. But I don't think he will be able to use those same holes, because those holes would have re-frozen by now. Because the lake was "fished out" days ago. At the very least, Stannis will need have the "ice fishing holes" re-cut, no longer than 12 hours before the Bolton army goes out on the lake. Otherwise I believe the ice would be to solid to break, when the Bolton army goes on the lake(because it is so bloody cold in the North).

So I guess what I am trying to say is, this plan could take some very good timing to work right.

...and I live in Minnesota, so I too am familiar with ice! I work in the transportation industry and therefore talk to many people from other states and I have been asked about ice fishing from people who live in southern states. They seem to be under the impression that the ice is only a few inches thick. They are often surprised that it's typically 14+ inches thick with many fishing holes drilled in it. I do hope that since GRRM has spent much of his time in CA and NM that he's spent some research into "ice" before writing any "rotted" ice passage! (I'm sure he has...he must have!)

[bemused]

I'm sure GRRM has done his research too .
Happily for me, I'm not that familiar with ice ( Canadian west coast .. now , mud I can relate to) But would all the ice re-freeze to the same thickness ? ...  Stannis helping out is fine with me , too. and what about the slippy - slidiness ? I guess a lot would depend on how much snow cover there was , but it seems like a horse's leg would sink in farther than a person's.

And surely the northmen with " bear paws " can be put to some good use ?

Edited by bemused, 17 January 2012 - 05:21 PM.