Sorry about my slow response!
Melisandra, on 07 March 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:
We haven't been given all the details yet as to what kind of story the Karstark's are offering to explain Tybald's presence. The North is a mess after Robb releases the Riverland lords, and he loses control after he beheads Rickard. Perhaps they are counting on all of this confusion as a way to disguise having Tybald in their presence.
GRRM uses the word concealed when describing what Tybald wore. "The door opened with a gust of cold black wind and a swirl of snow. The knight of the moths had returned with the maester the king had sent for, his grey robes concealed beneath a heavy bearskin pelt." Because GRRM chose the word "concealed" rather than simply saying something like, "covered" implies to me that Tybald at least attempted to conceal his identity.
I understand what you're saying, but if you were trying to hide the fact that you were a maester, wouldn't the very first thing you do be to
stop wearing your maester's robes, as opposed to just partially "concealing" them with a pelt? In any case, that there was a maester with Karstark was apparently obvious. From one of Asha's POVs:
"Lord Arnolf had found them eight days past. The northman had brought a son, three grandsons, four hundred spears, two score archers, a dozen mounted lances,
a maester, and a cage of ravens ... but only enough provisions to sustain his own." (emphasis mine)
So Tybald clearly did not conceal the fact that he was a maester traveling with the Karstarks and there is no indication here he was being treated as a captive. The most we can imagine Tybald might have been concealing is where he was from. So, suppose that he concealed where he came from and none of the northmen knew him by sight. In that case, how on earth would
Stannis have figured it out? Remember, Stannis just up and says "You are the maester at the Dreadfort"; how could he know this if neither Tybald nor the Karstarks were telling and no one knows Tybald by sight? On the other hand, if there is an error and Tybald was actually supposed to be from Karhold, Stannis would just have assumed as much.
Melisandra, on 07 March 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:
And the Karstark's apparently either do not know Tybald's true identity or they don't know Stannis has suspicions because Arnolf requests to have breakfast with Stannis. I don't think many of Arnolf's men even knew who Tybald was, because I remember reading that the men took and followed the orders of their liege lord without question.
I think it's safe to say that the Karstarks don't know Stannis suspects them. Otherwise Karstark wouldn't have walked himself, his son and his grandsons into Stannis's tower without guards and mostly "dressed for breakfast, not for battle." (Incidentally, I think you've got it backwards: Stannis requested the breakfast with Karstark and his son, and what we saw in the chapter was Karstark sending back word that he would be pleased to join him.)
Melisandra, on 07 March 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:
Stannis already knew the Karstarks were playing him false before the Theon gift chapter, but Arnolf didn't know that Stannis knew. Furthermore, we learn that Stannis has received Jon's letter warning that the Karstarks have joined forces with the Boltons, but Arnolf still doesn't know that Stannis knows! Arnolf may have been Rickard's uncle and his castellan, but I don't think the guy was real smart!
Are you saying that you think Stannis knew the Karstarks were traitors before he got Jon's letter? If so, why do you think so?
Melisandra, on 07 March 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:
In aDwD, Reek chapter, after Reek/Theon is brought up out of the dungeon of the Dreadfort, he is taking note of all the people seated at the banquet table with Ramsay. He notices a lord: "The second lord was thin as well, but twisted where the first was straight. One of his shoulders was much higher than the other, and he stooped over his trencher like a vulture over carrion. His eyes were grey and greedy, his teeth yellow, his forked beard a tangle of snow and silver. Only a few wisps of white hair still clung to his spotted skull, but the cloak he wore was soft and fine, grey wool trimmed with black sable and fastened at the shoulder with a starburst wrought in beaten silver." The starburst is the sigil for house Karstark, and I believe this is a description of Arnolf.
It is. In the gift chapter Theon actually thinks to himself about where he's seen Arnolf before: "At the Dreadfort. I remember. He sat and supped with Lord Ramsay and Whoresbane Umber, the night they brought Reek up from his cell." I'm not following what difference this makes, though.
Melisandra, on 07 March 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:
That the ravens are trained to fly to Winterhaven instead of the Dreadfort is the evidence that Arnolf not only knew who Tybald was, but that he knew of the plan to send a raven with a map of Stannis's location.
I don't follow the logic of this, and it seems pretty convoluted in any case. My version of the interrogation, where Tybald is from Karhold is a lot simpler and clearer: Stannis wants to confirm that the Karstarks are traitors, so he calls in their maester. If their ravens fly to Karhold, this does not implicate them, but if they fly to Winterfell it does. When Stannis asks, Maester Tybald's bladder confesses for him. Tybald later makes a point of saying he was only serving, thus implicating the Karstarks specifically, and now Stannis has a second piece of evidence (independent of Alys's claims from Jon's letter) that the Karstarks are traitors. He then goes on to try and find out just what information has leaked. Clear as can be!
I do think it's possible that I'm wrong about all this and the maester really is from the Dreadfort, but if so, at the very least, GRRM has some editing to do to make this all make a little more sense.