496 replies to this topic

[GreenHand]

I like your analytic dissection according to what objective information is present.
I think the theory that one author began the letter an another finished it is indeed valid and plausible but there are single persons who could have pulled off a fake letter.

In all only two people have the objective knowledge contained in the letter. Mance and Melisandre. I think melisandre is as likely.

For Melisandre:
She knows that there are "daggers in the dark" all about Jon threaten his life and his command on the Wall. In her fires she keeps seeing Snow even when she is seek visions of others (like Azor Ahai), so she realizes at least that Jon is very important in some way. She has also gleaned and conveyed that Jon has much latent power in him that could be pivotal if can be trained, guided and tapped into the power of the Wall. Furthermore, it is clear that Jon harbours great distrust towards her and is disregarding her warnings of these daggers in the dark around him so she must find another way to avert his death.
In Faking the letter she gets Jon away from the Wall and thus away from the threat. Alas she is just too late.

She has gotten to know Jon somewhat.
She can more easily acquire a raven while Clydas gets his meals (Sam is away). Winterfell has probably lost all its rookery ravens leaving those brought from the Dreadfort.

for Mance:
Mance was always not just concerned with he approaching White Walkers (he seems to trust the Wall as a barrier), but also with carving a place for the Free Folk South of the Wall. So while he seems happy to help Jon get "Arya", he likely has a longer objective.
We know that at least some of the spearwives were spotted with Jeyne Poole and so raise the alarms before Abel/Mance was able to get to them. The plan had lost initiative and stealth. It is possible that Mance had time and opportunity to get a raven then but less likely.

The letter specifically plays on Jon's button of being a bastard. We know that it is a sensitive point within Jon and I think so does Mance. When Jon first meets and is questioned by Mance he delivers a prepared "lie" that covers the only motivation for defection that Jon thinks is believable but I think it's believable because it has that kernal of heartstring truth, and Mance would pick up on it.

A Storm of Swords, Jon II said:

“And you, Jon Snow?”
Jon took another swallow of mead. There is only one tale that he might believe. “You say you were at Winterfell, the night my father feasted King Robert.”
“I did say it, for I was.”
“Then you saw us all. Prince Joffrey and Prince Tommen, Princess Myrcella, my brothers Robb and Bran and Rickon, my sisters Arya and Sansa. You saw them walk the center aisle
with every eye upon them and take their seats at the table just below the dais where the king and queen were seated.”
“I remember.”
“And did you see where I was seated, Mance?” He leaned forward. “Did you see where they put the bastard?”
Mance Rayder looked at Jon’s face for a long moment. “I think we had best find you a new cloak,” the king said, holding out his hand.

By comparison, there is far less reason or precedent in the Jon-Melisandre conversations for Melisandre to hone in on Jon's issues with being a bastard.

[alienarea]

Melisandra, on 11 April 2012 - 08:25 AM, said:

@alienarea...you provide food for thought. I am among many who hope the letter is false. I also think there is a possibility that Stannis was in on the false rumors of his death and I refer to his conversation with Justin Massey as evidence. However, I agree that Stannis probably did not know that Mance was still alive, but was he aware of the Arya rescue mission? (I do not remember)

I agree with the premise that Ramsay wouldn't know or care about Val or Mance's son, and he certainly would not place Reek/Theon last. I can see a scenario where Manderley reaches and conspires with Stannis, brings back his sword as "proof" of his defeat, and spreads the false tale of defeat so that Stannis's men can enter Winterfell disguised as Manderley, and perhaps Frey, men.

Thank you.

SeanF, on 11 April 2012 - 09:37 AM, said:

At the end of ADWD, I assumed the letter was a lie, because "Arya" and Theon would have been recaptured, had Ramsay won the battle.

From Theon 1, we can see that "Arya" has probably been sent away before the battle starts, and Theon may well have been executed.

OTOH, I'm quite confident from Theon 1 that Stannis would make pretty short work of Ramsay's army.  There's no numerical difference between the two forces, the Manderlys want to switch sides, and Stannis is by far the better commander.

And, the tone of the letter just sounds wrong from someone who's won a major victory.  It's bitter and petulant, rather than triumphant and gloating.

Thank you. I hadn't cared so much for the tone but the content. But a bitter and petulant tone would fit with Mance, wouldn't it?

MikeDC, on 11 April 2012 - 03:31 PM, said:

Awesome. I especially think the speculation of the Manderly host showing up and claiming victory over Stannis fits in well here.

I went back and read the Theon chapter again, and one thing that strikes me is that while Theon and a couple spearwives are busy busting out "Arya", Mance is apparently back in the Great Hall singing a tune to the Boltons while the other four spearwives head back to get him.  Given that most everyone else was clearing out of the castle at the time to go attack Stannis, they may well have a fighting stance. And for that matter, they wouldn't immediately be the obvious suspects since Theon will be the notably unaccounted for person.

Thank you, I need to reread this.

Noimporta, on 11 April 2012 - 05:58 PM, said:

Is this the exact quote? Does anyone but wildlings refer to the men of the Night's Watch as "crows"?

It is the exact quote from the paperback. Crows would fit for Mance, wouldn't it?

Rockroi, on 12 April 2012 - 06:56 AM, said:

Here is the text of the letter as it appears in my Kindle:

Bastard was the only word written outside the scroll. No Lord Snow or Jon Snow or Lord Commander. Simply Bastard. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. “You were right to come at once,” Jon said. You were right to be afraid. He cracked the seal, flattened the parchment, and read.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

It was signed, Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

Martin, George R.R. (2011-07-12). A Dance with Dragons: A Song of Ice and Fire: Book Five (pp. 907-908). Bantam. Kindle Edition.

I just want to say one thing: if this was some sort of code from Mance to Jon Snow, Jon Snow seems utterly ignorant of it in the paragraphs that follow the letter.  Jon seems to believe its a partially true letter from Ramsey Bolton.

I will have more comments later.

And great analysis, alienarea, even if I ultimately diagree with it.

Thank you. Another point I realized when reading your reply is the line "if you want Mance Rayder back come and get him". This can be the same theme as with Theon: you have to know your name. Is this where Mance intended to give away who is the sender of the letter?

Bran Vras, on 12 April 2012 - 08:34 AM, said:

Good work alienarea. Not yet a compelling theory, though. I had once a theory that the letter is a song written by Mance. Note the repetitions in the text. I thought it could refer to a song that occurs in the book but I couldn't find any.

I think we have to be attentive to the imagery. The most curious thing is the cage in which Mance has been put. And Mance is given to the cold. That's the opposite of what happened at the Wall, when Rattleshirt disguised as Mance was given to the fire in cage (the cage at the Wall was partially made of weirwood). Even more curious is the notion that the skins of six women would protect Mance. (It reminds me of the Others who would only take Craster's son.)

I have suggested also in the Heresy thread that the heart eating threat should be connected to the prologue with Varamyr. Mance surely knows that Jon Snow is a warg.

Thank you. I am puzzled about the cage as well. Maybe it refers to all of Winterfell, i.e. he hasn't been captured at all but can't get away? And if Mance is hiding in the godswood he would be out in the cold, wouldn't he?

I'm also thinking if it has something to with Lady Dustin (see howl at the moon thread: Melisandre=red0fire, Val=white=ice, Lady Dustin=black=death).

Crackpot: Cold cage = trapped in the crypts? Mance has discovered something in the crypts and trapped himself there. The spearwives supply him with warmth (food?) but he needs Jon in person to get out?

I agree with you that the whole letter is most likely a coded message from Mance to Jon and Jon fails to understand.

What is particularly odd is that Jon reads the letter in the shield hall. If it is the same letter the wildlings in the hall would know that Mance is alive and someone else was burned - wouldn't they hurry to Winterfell immediately? Also, the queens men and the Night Watch would know that Stannis and Melisandre cheated on them - maybe this is why Bowen and co act in a hurry?

[Fragile Bird]

I think this line of reasoning outlined in the last few pages is awesome, and has lured me back to this thread.

[MikeDC]

alienarea, on 12 April 2012 - 09:43 AM, said:

What is particularly odd is that Jon reads the letter in the shield hall. If it is the same letter the wildlings in the hall would know that Mance is alive and someone else was burned - wouldn't they hurry to Winterfell immediately? Also, the queens men and the Night Watch would know that Stannis and Melisandre cheated on them - maybe this is why Bowen and co act in a hurry?

Does Stannis know it was Rattleshirt burning, and not Mance?

[Rockroi]

There is a cartoon that I like called “Archer” about a spy-agency.  In the Season 2 Finale, Archer falls in love with a woman that his mother (the owner of the agency) suspects is a double-agent.

When the mother corners Archer and the suspected double-agent/love interest the following dialog is exchanged:

Mother: You are a double agent
Katia (Female Agent): I love your son; I am not a double-agent.
Archer: The KGB faked her file!
Other Agent: A likely story!....(pondering) Although…. it would be the first thing they would do!
Another Agent: Yeah… that’s like counter Intelligence 101
Mother: But that’s exactly what a double-agent would say…

So, it’s a long way to say this: a double-agent sounds a lot like an agent trying to deny that they are, in fact, a double agent.

This is the way I approach trying to decipher the letter Jon Snow received at the end of DwD: it sounds an awful lot like Ramsey Bolton…. But it also sounds an awful lot like somebody trying to pretend their Ramsey Bolton…. And every bit of info you pick up you can say “That’s exactly what Ramsey Bolton would say” and then counter with, “And therefore it sounds EXACTLY what somebody would say if they were FAKING to be Ramsey Bolton.”

So how do we get to the bottom of this?  Do we use deductive reasoning?  Do we scrape together facts from disparate parts of the books?  Do we draw upon past plot lines to try to anticipate this one?

Maybe.  But for now lets do one other trick.  We can cheat.

Several months after ADwD was released, George RR Martin stated that the letter at the end of Dance was not 100% true.  This seems to indicate that either the author was lying or that the author was saying things they thought were true but were not. I think its work noting that the truthfulness of the letter is completely immaterial.  It only matter s if the author THINKS its true or thinks that another will think its true.

This leads me to the question did two authors write the letter?  I do not buy this reasoning at all.  The letter is slightly repetitious; its possible that the same author stopped and then revisited the letter later.  This could have occurred.  But two authors?  Highly unlikely.   First, this is Westeros, not North America circa 2012 wherein everyone writes letters on a computer.  This letter would be hand-written and the difference in hand-writing between two different men would be noticeable.  No author or man pretending to be the author would risk that.  Secondly, if Mance stumbled upon this letter of Ramsey’s and filled in the rest, why complete it?  Why not just start over?

This then leads to who actually penned the letter?  There are a few possibilities but the author MUST:

-Know that Mance is alive and was sent to Winterfell (this eliminates 99% of the population of Westeros; it would leave only Mance, Mel, Jon Snow, and the women sent with Mance.  It may also include Stannis, but …

-Be present at Winterfell (its pretty safe to assume Stannis is not).

Now its possible Jon Snow, it a fit of schizophrenia, sent himself the letter but this seems incredibly unlikely.  Thus we are left with just the women, Mance, Ramsey and Mel (with Mel faking everything).  

But lets talk about Jon Snow.  When Snow gets the letter here are some of his reactions:

First, he is gravely stunned by the letter because Tormund says ““You look like your father’s bloody head just rolled out o’ that paper.”  So, its safe to say that Jon does not like what he just read.  This is the start of what leads me to believe its NOT a code agreed upon by Mance and Jon.

Next, he gives the letter to Tormund and says “It was sent by Ramsay Snow. I’ll read you what he wrote.”  Again, this seems very odd for Jon to say if he believes that Ramey sent it.  Even if it’s a lie, Jon is like Ned and Robb: not a great liar.  

“Might be all a skin o’ lies.” Tormund scratched under his beard. “If I had me a nice goose quill and a pot o’ maester’s ink, I could write down that me member was long and thick as me arm, wouldn’t make it so.”
“He has Lightbringer. He talks of heads upon the walls of Winterfell. He knows about the spearwives and their number.” He knows about Mance Rayder. “No. There is truth in there.”

This screams to me that Jon is taking the letter at face value.  There is no indication that Jon does not believe the letter; no indication that Jon thinksi ts a code.  But it’s a bit worse than that.  As Jon thinks about the letter his thoughts trace back to Robb and Sansa… and Arya.

HOLD. THAT. THOUGHT.

Okay, let’s look at the letter.  I am not going to recapture all of the analysis done by others.  I just want to capture a few salient points:

Quote

Bastard was the only word written outside the scroll.

I have stated many times that the reason I believe Ramsey Bolton wrote that letter is because Ramsey Bolton used to be Ramsey SNOW and as a Snow Ramsey knows how horrible it is to be called a “Bastard”.  In the letter, Ramsey calls Jon a Bastard five times (including the name on the outside).  He uses it as a cudgel; a weapon, a cruel axe for chopping into Jon at every opportunity.  Its possible that Ramsey is doing this, but to what end?  Why say it 5 times and not just leave it at the seal if its some code?

Quote

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe.

This section I used to believe meant that Ramsey wanted these people as hostages.  This seems wild and a little bit crazy, but then again so is Ramsey.

Quote

And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

It’s a quandary this section because it contains the most compelling evidence that its Mance Ryder who authored the letter (eat your bastard heart) and at the same time the most compelling reason its not.

Quote

And I want my Reek.

Why, in the world, would anyone EXCEPT Ramsey Bolton put that line in there?  If its Mance Ryder why would he say that to Jon Snow? Jon Snow has no idea who Reek is or why Ramsey would want him back.  If its Mance Ryder trying to use some sort of code, how could this help?  Again, Jon does not know who Reek is.

Quote

And I want my Reek.

Except, of course, that Jon Snow knows full well who Theon Greyjoy is.  And so does Mance.  Reek/Theon met with Mance prior to stealing Jayne/Arya (hold.that.thought).  If Mance was trying to get a coded message to Jon Snow, why would he say “Reek” and not “Theon?”  Jon knows who Theon is; Jon does not know who Reek is.  This is sort of a “reverse clue.”  If that letter had said “Theon” I think it would have been safe to assume that the letter was penned by Mance.  But because it says “Reek” and because Jon does not know who Reek is (but knows full well who Theon is) I think that its more likely that the letter was penned by Ramsey Bolton who would, of course, want his “Reek” back, and not Mance Ryder who would be trying to smuggle more info to Jon.

And there is one final issue.  And it’s Arya.

By the time Theon jumps from the battlements with Jayne/Arya he knows full well its not Arya he is rescuing.   But he never tells Mance; he never tells any of the spearwives; in fact he never even tells Jayne.  Theon comes close to saying it, but makes a point of pointing out that he NEVER actually said that to Mance or the spearwives.  Hence, Mance should believe that the bride = Arya.

And yet…. And yet that letter NEVER – not once –says “Arya” or “sister” or “half-sister.”  It never minces words, but it never says anything about Jon’s family.  It only says “bride.”  Again, if Mance was sending a coded message to Jon Snow WHY WOULD MANCE NOT MENTION THAT ARYA WAS IN GOOD HEALTH OR SOMETHING ELSE LIKE THAT!?  Why keep it so vague?  Moreover, wouldn’t he have said “Arya?”

But Mance?  Fuck that!  Mance knows full well that girl is not Arya just as Roose Bolton and Theon know!  Hence, why Ramsey does not risk saying anything like that!  Just “bride.”  In other words it makes far more sense that Ramsey would call the girl "bride" than it does that Mance would NOT call the girl "Arya."

Could Mance have sent the letter to lure Jon into a trap down South? That sort of begs a different question: what sort of trap COULD Mance set for Jon given his condition?  We know that AT LEAST two of the spear-wives were slain so its not like he has numbers.  We know that the plan was being collapsed as Reek escaped.  We know that Mance has few weapons or anything of the like.  He has no allies or connections in that area.  So.  What sort of trap is Mance planting for Jon?

I really doubt he is.  There is no real plot or scam or trap that Mance is capable of setting wherein he could be reasonably sure would harm Jon.  Its simply not feasible.

But what about a code?

If this is a coded message I think its very clear that Jon does not understand it.  Jon believes Mance has been taken and that he has to march on Winterfell.  He seems dead-set on this conduct. He gets men together and begins to head South.

But then, what was Mance trying to say?  Why was he trying to sound so much like Ramsey?  Surely Jon Snow had never met Ramsey Bolton so was there a need to sound so … so much like him?  How come he mentions Reek?   Why not mention Theon?  This is what has me completely at odds with the “Code Camp;” I find that Mance’s “code” sounds an awful lot like something Ramsey would write.  

In fact, we must ask “What would a letter from Ramsey sound like?”

Well, first, it would sound like a crazy person who was at his wits end.  It would sound like a nasty man who was extremely angry; who would hurl the “bastard” label with relish; who would threaten and carry-on; it would sound like somebody who had no barriers and who did not like to be denied anything. If he was being lied to about Stannis etc it would be a man who would repeat those lies.

In other words, a letter Ramsey would write  would sound an awful like… like the one that was written.


And that's where I leave it.  I think Ramsey Bolton sent that letter; he sent it when Karstark and Manderly men returned from the "battle" with Stannis' sword (not his head, mind you).  I think Ramsey thinks he has won and is awaiting Roose et al to return.  I think he has Mance and is reveling in his soon to be glory.  I think that he is asking for Reek and his bride because ... because they are in Stannis' camp and Stannis is alive and on his way to Winterfell but Ramsey thinks they are on the way to the Wall.  I think he captured Mance.  And I think Mance knew that the only way he could live would be if Jon Snow plucked him from Winterfell.

[alienarea]

Rockroi, on 12 April 2012 - 02:27 PM, said:

There is a cartoon that I like called “Archer” about a spy-agency.  In the Season 2 Finale, Archer falls in love with a woman that his mother (the owner of the agency) suspects is a double-agent.

When the mother corners Archer and the suspected double-agent/love interest the following dialog is exchanged:

Mother: You are a double agent
Katia (Female Agent): I love your son; I am not a double-agent.
Archer: The KGB faked her file!
Other Agent: A likely story!....(pondering) Although…. it would be the first thing they would do!
Another Agent: Yeah… that’s like counter Intelligence 101
Mother: But that’s exactly what a double-agent would say…

So, it’s a long way to say this: a double-agent sounds a lot like an agent trying to deny that they are, in fact, a double agent.

This is the way I approach trying to decipher the letter Jon Snow received at the end of DwD: it sounds an awful lot like Ramsey Bolton…. But it also sounds an awful lot like somebody trying to pretend their Ramsey Bolton…. And every bit of info you pick up you can say “That’s exactly what Ramsey Bolton would say” and then counter with, “And therefore it sounds EXACTLY what somebody would say if they were FAKING to be Ramsey Bolton.”

So how do we get to the bottom of this?  Do we use deductive reasoning?  Do we scrape together facts from disparate parts of the books?  Do we draw upon past plot lines to try to anticipate this one?

Maybe.  But for now lets do one other trick.  We can cheat.

Several months after ADwD was released, George RR Martin stated that the letter at the end of Dance was not 100% true.  This seems to indicate that either the author was lying or that the author was saying things they thought were true but were not. I think its work noting that the truthfulness of the letter is completely immaterial.  It only matter s if the author THINKS its true or thinks that another will think its true.

This leads me to the question did two authors write the letter?  I do not buy this reasoning at all.  The letter is slightly repetitious; its possible that the same author stopped and then revisited the letter later.  This could have occurred.  But two authors?  Highly unlikely.   First, this is Westeros, not North America circa 2012 wherein everyone writes letters on a computer.  This letter would be hand-written and the difference in hand-writing between two different men would be noticeable.  No author or man pretending to be the author would risk that.  Secondly, if Mance stumbled upon this letter of Ramsey’s and filled in the rest, why complete it?  Why not just start over?

This then leads to who actually penned the letter?  There are a few possibilities but the author MUST:

-Know that Mance is alive and was sent to Winterfell (this eliminates 99% of the population of Westeros; it would leave only Mance, Mel, Jon Snow, and the women sent with Mance.  It may also include Stannis, but …

-Be present at Winterfell (its pretty safe to assume Stannis is not).

Now its possible Jon Snow, it a fit of schizophrenia, sent himself the letter but this seems incredibly unlikely.  Thus we are left with just the women, Mance, Ramsey and Mel (with Mel faking everything).  

But lets talk about Jon Snow.  When Snow gets the letter here are some of his reactions:

First, he is gravely stunned by the letter because Tormund says ““You look like your father’s bloody head just rolled out o’ that paper.”  So, its safe to say that Jon does not like what he just read.  This is the start of what leads me to believe its NOT a code agreed upon by Mance and Jon.

Next, he gives the letter to Tormund and says “It was sent by Ramsay Snow. I’ll read you what he wrote.”  Again, this seems very odd for Jon to say if he believes that Ramey sent it.  Even if it’s a lie, Jon is like Ned and Robb: not a great liar.  

“Might be all a skin o’ lies.” Tormund scratched under his beard. “If I had me a nice goose quill and a pot o’ maester’s ink, I could write down that me member was long and thick as me arm, wouldn’t make it so.”
“He has Lightbringer. He talks of heads upon the walls of Winterfell. He knows about the spearwives and their number.” He knows about Mance Rayder. “No. There is truth in there.”

This screams to me that Jon is taking the letter at face value.  There is no indication that Jon does not believe the letter; no indication that Jon thinksi ts a code.  But it’s a bit worse than that.  As Jon thinks about the letter his thoughts trace back to Robb and Sansa… and Arya.

HOLD. THAT. THOUGHT.

Okay, let’s look at the letter.  I am not going to recapture all of the analysis done by others.  I just want to capture a few salient points:



I have stated many times that the reason I believe Ramsey Bolton wrote that letter is because Ramsey Bolton used to be Ramsey SNOW and as a Snow Ramsey knows how horrible it is to be called a “Bastard”.  In the letter, Ramsey calls Jon a Bastard five times (including the name on the outside).  He uses it as a cudgel; a weapon, a cruel axe for chopping into Jon at every opportunity.  Its possible that Ramsey is doing this, but to what end?  Why say it 5 times and not just leave it at the seal if its some code?



This section I used to believe meant that Ramsey wanted these people as hostages.  This seems wild and a little bit crazy, but then again so is Ramsey.



It’s a quandary this section because it contains the most compelling evidence that its Mance Ryder who authored the letter (eat your bastard heart) and at the same time the most compelling reason its not.



Why, in the world, would anyone EXCEPT Ramsey Bolton put that line in there?  If its Mance Ryder why would he say that to Jon Snow? Jon Snow has no idea who Reek is or why Ramsey would want him back.  If its Mance Ryder trying to use some sort of code, how could this help?  Again, Jon does not know who Reek is.



Except, of course, that Jon Snow knows full well who Theon Greyjoy is.  And so does Mance.  Reek/Theon met with Mance prior to stealing Jayne/Arya (hold.that.thought).  If Mance was trying to get a coded message to Jon Snow, why would he say “Reek” and not “Theon?”  Jon knows who Theon is; Jon does not know who Reek is.  This is sort of a “reverse clue.”  If that letter had said “Theon” I think it would have been safe to assume that the letter was penned by Mance.  But because it says “Reek” and because Jon does not know who Reek is (but knows full well who Theon is) I think that its more likely that the letter was penned by Ramsey Bolton who would, of course, want his “Reek” back, and not Mance Ryder who would be trying to smuggle more info to Jon.

And there is one final issue.  And it’s Arya.

By the time Theon jumps from the battlements with Jayne/Arya he knows full well its not Arya he is rescuing.   But he never tells Mance; he never tells any of the spearwives; in fact he never even tells Jayne.  Theon comes close to saying it, but makes a point of pointing out that he NEVER actually said that to Mance or the spearwives.  Hence, Mance should believe that the bride = Arya.

And yet…. And yet that letter NEVER – not once –says “Arya” or “sister” or “half-sister.”  It never minces words, but it never says anything about Jon’s family.  It only says “bride.”  Again, if Mance was sending a coded message to Jon Snow WHY WOULD MANCE NOT MENTION THAT ARYA WAS IN GOOD HEALTH OR SOMETHING ELSE LIKE THAT!?  Why keep it so vague?  Moreover, wouldn’t he have said “Arya?”

But Mance?  Fuck that!  Mance knows full well that girl is not Arya just as Roose Bolton and Theon know!  Hence, why Ramsey does not risk saying anything like that!  Just “bride.”  In other words it makes far more sense that Ramsey would call the girl "bride" than it does that Mance would NOT call the girl "Arya."

Could Mance have sent the letter to lure Jon into a trap down South? That sort of begs a different question: what sort of trap COULD Mance set for Jon given his condition?  We know that AT LEAST two of the spear-wives were slain so its not like he has numbers.  We know that the plan was being collapsed as Reek escaped.  We know that Mance has few weapons or anything of the like.  He has no allies or connections in that area.  So.  What sort of trap is Mance planting for Jon?

I really doubt he is.  There is no real plot or scam or trap that Mance is capable of setting wherein he could be reasonably sure would harm Jon.  Its simply not feasible.

But what about a code?

If this is a coded message I think its very clear that Jon does not understand it.  Jon believes Mance has been taken and that he has to march on Winterfell.  He seems dead-set on this conduct. He gets men together and begins to head South.

But then, what was Mance trying to say?  Why was he trying to sound so much like Ramsey?  Surely Jon Snow had never met Ramsey Bolton so was there a need to sound so … so much like him?  How come he mentions Reek?   Why not mention Theon?  This is what has me completely at odds with the “Code Camp;” I find that Mance’s “code” sounds an awful lot like something Ramsey would write.  

In fact, we must ask “What would a letter from Ramsey sound like?”

Well, first, it would sound like a crazy person who was at his wits end.  It would sound like a nasty man who was extremely angry; who would hurl the “bastard” label with relish; who would threaten and carry-on; it would sound like somebody who had no barriers and who did not like to be denied anything. If he was being lied to about Stannis etc it would be a man who would repeat those lies.

In other words, a letter Ramsey would write  would sound an awful like… like the one that was written.


And that's where I leave it.  I think Ramsey Bolton sent that letter; he sent it when Karstark and Manderly men returned from the "battle" with Stannis' sword (not his head, mind you).  I think Ramsey thinks he has won and is awaiting Roose et al to return.  I think he has Mance and is reveling in his soon to be glory.  I think that he is asking for Reek and his bride because ... because they are in Stannis' camp and Stannis is alive and on his way to Winterfell but Ramsey thinks they are on the way to the Wall.  I think he captured Mance.  And I think Mance knew that the only way he could live would be if Jon Snow plucked him from Winterfell.

A very deep analysis, but I am not convinced.

- Why would Ramsay want Val and Mance's son? Or even know about them? Even when torturing Mance Ramsay would most likely ask for different things.
- Why would Ramsay call the Night Watch crows?
- Why would Ramsay threaten to eat Jon Snow's heart? I don't think Ramsay knows (that much) about warging.

I just discovered another hint for Mance being the author when rereading the Melisandre chapter in ADwD. In the second to last parapgraph when Melisandre is with Mance and Jon she says "Our false king has a prickly manner" about Mance. The letter starts with "Your false king is dead" which I strongly assume is Mance getting back at Jon telling about Stannis.

Also, there is a possible hint why Jon is odd in his final chapter when Melisandre unglamors Mance:
quote
Melisandre touched the ruby at her neck and spoke a word.
The sound echoed queerly from the corners of the room and twisted like a worm inside their ears. The wildling heard one word, the crow another. Neither was the world that left her lips. The ruby on the wildling's wrist darkened, and the wisps of light and shadow around him writhed and faded.

[fassreiter]

I really like the coded letter theory. We discussed it a while ago in one of the letter-threads (don't remember which one) and to me, most of the wording could make perfect sense as a code. The problem is, I can't really see what a coded message would accomplish. Why use a code in the first place when the code in itself gives away everything that Jon as well as Mance don't want to be known? If they were afraid that Ramsay would get his hands on the letter - why, the letter would tell him exactly who stole his bride and who sent them. If they were afraid of the NW - why, the letter tells them Jon was in on a plan to let Mance live. Same goes for Stannis or any northern lord. So what would be the point?

[Lord Damian]

How about another view point, Mance captures Ramsay and is holding him with a knife to his throat or balls. Mance, might have him in the crypts were no one can find him. Mance had the spear wives ask questions about the crypts which have a historical value for hiding out on two seperate occasions. Bael the Bard and unknown to Mance - Rickon, Bran and party. Mance might be dictating the letter to Ramsay who is at his mercy due to the said positioning of a dagger. Mance has no desire to help Stannis if he can at least secure his baby and sister and secure hostages against Stannis. I also believe Roose might be dead by Mance before taking Ramsay.

Edited by Lord Damian, 14 April 2012 - 06:54 PM.

[Rockroi]

Quote

Mance captures Ramsay and is holding him with a knife to his throat or balls ... I also believe Roose might be dead by Mance before taking Ramsay.

While this could be true, its not very likely.  When we last see the spearwives they are being cut-down by Bolton men.  With their deaths and the obvious escape of "Arya" and Reek, Ramsey would be on a rampage.  Men would be on high alert and heads would be, as they say, rolling.  Further, the ONLY advantage MAnce had up to Reek's escape was that he was incognito.  Now, exposed, it seems far-fetched to believe that - ina  castle filled with Boltons and Freys - that Mance and 4 women could take Ramsey hostage and not the other way-round.

Its more likley that Mance is in hiding; and its even more likley than that that Ramsey has Mance as his captive.

[redriver]

Great analysis folks.

On the subject of coding and warging,we have noted the part about eating Jon's heart may be a reference to warging.

The same may be true about about giving Mance the skins of the spearwives to keep warm-six skins a reference to Varamyr which Mance,Mel and Jon would know.

Edited by redriver, 15 April 2012 - 12:54 PM.

[mad-ness]

Michael Jon Snow, on 19 January 2012 - 11:32 AM, said:

Fighting against Bolton =/= fighting for Stannis. Manderly doesn't need Davos to return with Rickon  to fight against the Freys or Boltons. (tho I will concede that word that Davos has returned might have been what caused the change in Manderly's behavior at the end of Dance, I would argue that he might have had some other indicator that it was time to turn on Bolton.)

I would agree that Rickon's safe return and Stannis recognizing Rickon as the Lord of Winterfel would be a requirement for an alliance between Manderly and Stannis.

Manderlay was going to turn on Bolton when he felt that he had the opportunity to do so.

If this opportunity requires that Manderlay ally with Stannis then I think that Manderlay will ally with Stannis regardless of what happens with Davos and Rickon.  Keep in mind that Davos will not likely  know that Manderlay has already allied with Stannis until he has gotten Rickon back anyways.

Manderlay likely knew that one scenario was that he would betray Bolton while Bolton was fighting Stannis and thus that Manderlay would be in a position where he would be forced to deal with Stannis.  If he helps Stannis defeat Bolton, tells Stannis that the Stark boys are alive and tells Stannis that Davos was spared then perhaps he thinks that he can square things with Stannis.  Whether or not he is correct is a different question.

[MtnLion]

redriver, on 15 April 2012 - 12:54 PM, said:

Great analysis folks. On the subject of coding and warging,we have noted the part about eating Jon's heart may be a reference to warging. The same may be true about about giving Mance the skins of the spearwives to keep warm-six skins a reference to Varamyr which Mance,Mel and Jon would know.

Emphasis mine, beautiful find.  There must be more that we are overlooking, this is pointing towards a coded message from Mance, very strongly.  I have always felt that Mance was the author, simply because the note was not in blood, or contain a piece of skin from any of the captives.  

Most seem to think that all of the spearwives were killed.  We really only know about two.  I cannot find a reason for the one to leave Theon's company to assist Mance, as they had all been saying that Abel (Mance) could take care of himself.  But, only the two that went with Theon were near death when we last saw them.  I somehow doubt that Squirrel could be taken easily, if at all.

Edited by MtnLion, 16 April 2012 - 06:23 PM.

[redriver]

fassreiter, on 12 April 2012 - 03:24 PM, said:

I really like the coded letter theory. We discussed it a while ago in one of the letter-threads (don't remember which one) and to me, most of the wording could make perfect sense as a code. The problem is, I can't really see what a coded message would accomplish. Why use a code in the first place when the code in itself gives away everything that Jon as well as Mance don't want to be known? If they were afraid that Ramsay would get his hands on the letter - why, the letter would tell him exactly who stole his bride and who sent them. If they were afraid of the NW - why, the letter tells them Jon was in on a plan to let Mance live. Same goes for Stannis or any northern lord. So what would be the point?

The point of any code is to transmit information that would only be understood by the receiver,as opposed to an interceptor.It may help to separate what is actual truth in the letter from what may be fabricated.

"Your false king is dead.."Possibly fabricated,though it is worth noting that Mel describes Mance as a false king to Jon.

"He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle"Again possibly untrue.We know Stannis has some sort of trap prepared,that the Manderleys are on Stannis' side and hate the Freys and that Stannis has thwarted the Karstark betrayal,thanks to Jon's letter.It seems unlikely that the forces Roose sent out could have smashed Stannis.Even if the Manderleys and Freys cancelled each other out,it's doubtful Ramsay could have done the job with his forces.

"I have his red sword.Tell his red whore"Here I have trouble.Word of the red sword and the red priestess are possibly common knowledge in Westeros,but I can't provide any real proof.Help anyone?

"Your false kings friends are dead"-means nothing really if it's about Stannis,he doesn't have any,Mel aside and her head is not on a spike.If it refers to Mance then it could be the washerwomen.

"Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell.Come see them bastard"Again this could be false and even if it were true,not enough to draw Jon south.

"Your false king lied and so did you.You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-The-Wall.Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me."A strange mixture of fact and the not true.Stannis did not know about the Mance-Rattleshirt swap but Jon,Mel and Mance did.Ramsay could potentially have extracted this information from Mance by torture.Perhaps we can eliminate Stannis as the sender now?

"I will have my bride back"Ramsay refers to fake Arya as his "bride" instead of "wife" constantly,but perhaps Mance picked up on this in his many hours as Abel.

"If you want Mance Rayder back,come and get him".The only name mentioned in the letter.A code in itself maybe.But it could have mentioned Selyse,Shireen,Stannis,Arya, Theon, amongst other Stannis friends.Ramsay could have forced Mance to reveal his name,if he found him,maybe,Otherwise it's Jon,Mance and Mel know this info.

"I have him in a cage for all the north to see,proof of your lies."Mance was supposed to have died in a cage,burned alive.But would Ramsay or Roose put him in a cage outside?Not many are likely to go on a day trip to Winterfell and anyone in an outside cage would die quickly given the weather.False

",,but I have made him a cloak from the cloak of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell".Human skin is not a great insulator.But the number of "washerwomen" is correct and we know at least two of them have been caught or killed,the survivors may have given Abel up.As noted up thread,a possible allusion to Varamyr Sixskins,probably not known to the Boltons,but known to Jon,Mel,Mance and Stannis.

"I want my bride back.I want the false king's queen.I want his daughter and his red witch."Again descriptions,no names.Also the sender want's them whole and alive,not heads.Makes the demand more logistically difficult.Was Jon aware of the marriage?Down to Mance,Ramsay,Roose and Mel.

"I want his wildling princess.I want his little prince,the wildling babe"No names again but the wildling babe doesn't have one yet.A surprisingly tender description-"Mance's bastard child" would sound more like Ramsay.No reason to think the Boltons know about Val,Dalla or her babe and why would they ask?Knowledge known by Mance,Jon,Mel and only the Boltons if they are very thorough.

"And I want my Reek"-known to Ramsay and Mance,possibly Mel.

"Send them to me,bastard,and I will not trouble you or your black crows".A reference to bastards yes,of which Ramsay is one.Though we have no reference for ?Ramsay having an interest in the NW or referring to them as black crows,we know that Mance does.And when Jon meets Mance on the Fist of the First Men,after the wight attack,Mance says "Reach for that bastard sword and I'll have your bastard head off before it clears it's scabbard".Mance only stuff.

"Keep them from me,and I will cut out your bastard's heart,and eat it."
Applies ,if know the rules of wargery,Mance might from Sixskins,but I doubt Jon does as a warg virgin.In real terms,it's a serious threat.

So unless Mel has been particularly clear in her fire reading or Ramsay having captured Mance,been very thorough in his questioning,it really leaves Mance as the sender of the letter.

Motive?I'm too tired :cool4:Maybe tomorrow.

Edited by redriver, 16 April 2012 - 09:30 PM.

[MikeDC]

redriver, on 16 April 2012 - 09:16 PM, said:

The point of any code is to transmit information that would only be understood by the receiver,as opposed to an interceptor.It may help to separate what is actual truth in the letter from what may be fabricated.

"Your false king is dead.."Possibly fabricated,though it is worth noting that Mel describes Mance as a false king to Jon.

Actually, this makes sense if you take the perspective of the letter being a code from Mance to Mel. Mance refers to himself as the "false king" as that's how he'd been referred to. It's a good code because it'll sound like he's referring to Stannis. But when he talks about the false king, he's talking about either

1) Himself. Metaphorically, Mance is dead and there's only "Abel" left, tied to Mel's will.
2) Back to himself, Mance, because Abel (the false version) has been uncovered.

Either way, he's announcing the code.

Quote

"He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle"

Either
1) a reference back to the Wildling Invasion of the North in which Mance's host was defeated after several days of assaults ended with Stannis' arrival or
2) Abel and his spearwives have fought off the Boltons for seven days, but are at the end of the line?

I'm inclined to believe the 1)s, simply because it seems less speculative, and makes sense in the context of Mance establishing his code.

Quote

"I have his red sword.Tell his red whore"Here I have trouble.Word of the red sword and the red priestess are possibly common knowledge in Westeros,but I can't provide any real proof.Help anyone?

Speculatively, this could be the secretly coded info. It could be that Mance is saying he's found the true red sword, Lightbringer, which is maybe a/the secret artifact held deep in the crypts of Winterfell.

Huge leap, I know, but it would explain a lot of why 1) everyone is interested in the crypts, 2) Mel sends Mance to Winterfell even though she sees "Arya" coming north on her own 3) this passage.

Quote

"Your false kings friends are dead"-means nothing really if it's about Stannis,he doesn't have any,Mel aside and her head is not on a spike.If it refers to Mance then it could be the washerwomen.

"Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell.Come see them bastard"Again this could be false and even if it were true,not enough to draw Jon south.

OK, I'm falling down here. Could be the washerwomen?

Quote

"Your false king lied and so did you.You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-The-Wall.Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me."

Maybe Mance was lying in the previous sentence. "I, your false king, am lying". His friends the spearwives aren't dead. Crackpot time:
The bride stealing reference is to do with Mel sending Mance to Winterfell. Ie, away from his bride.

Did Mance's bride Dalla really die? This happens off camera and isn't talked about all that much. Then, there's Val, who seems to look a lot like her...

Alternatively, Mance could be said to have betrayed the Night's Watch by taking the "bride" of his freedom/his women/his relationships with the wildlings. He's submitted that freedom to Melisandre, and is asking for it back in exchange for him providing her with the "red sword".

Which come to think of it, could be Lightbringer, or it could metaphorically just mean that somehow he's brought down the Boltons from within, and left Winterfell open to occupation.

Quote

"I will have my bride back"Ramsay refers to fake Arya as his "bride" instead of "wife" constantly,but perhaps Mance picked up on this in his many hours as Abel.

Or it refers to his freedom, his people, or at least his women (I don't have time to look it up, but he's said he's got a weakness for the fair sex).

In short, Mance is saying I've fulfilled my part of the bargain, I've accomplished the (secret) task you set for me, now it's safe to bring me my people. Unstated, it might be that Mance wants everyone he cares about in Winterfell, where they'll be safe from the Others.

Quote

"If you want Mance Rayder back,come and get him".The only name mentioned in the letter.A code in itself maybe.But it could have mentioned Selyse,Shireen,Stannis,Arya, Theon, amongst other Stannis friends.Ramsay could have forced Mance to reveal his name,if he found him,maybe,Otherwise it's Jon,Mance and Mel know this info.

He's continuing the code. Mance Rayder the False King is dead, but you can have him back, with all of his knowledge of surviving winter, kicking Bolton ass, finding the secrets stuff you wanted him to find, and bending the wildlings to a good purpose. Just come to Winterfell, it's safe now, and the wall, which will soon be overrun and ill-defended by the Night's Watch can't stop it.

Quote

"I have him in a cage for all the north to see,proof of your lies."

Mance is playing, noting the lie will be exposed, but it's necessary for Mel to suck it up, because he's saving their bacon. Might also simply be further providing evidence it's Mance.

Quote

",,but I have made him a cloak from the cloak of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell".Human skin is not a great insulator.But the number of "washerwomen" is correct and we know at least two of them have been caught or killed,the survivors may have given Abel up.As noted up thread,a possible allusion to Varamyr Sixskins,probably not known to the Boltons,but known to Jon,Mel,Mance and Stannis.

The survivors are keeping Mance safe? Cloaking his true self And evidence for Mel and John that it's him.

Quote

"I want my bride back.I want the false king's queen.I want his daughter and his red witch."Again descriptions,no names.Also the sender want's them whole and alive,not heads.Makes the demand more logistically difficult.Was Jon aware of the marriage?Down to Mance,Ramsay,Roose and Mel.

"I want his wildling princess.I want his little prince,the wildling babe"No names again but the wildling babe doesn't have one yet.A surprisingly tender description-"Mance's bastard child" would sound more like Ramsay.No reason to think the Boltons know about Val,Dalla or her babe and why would they ask?Knowledge known by Mance,Jon,Mel and only the Boltons if they are very thorough.

I think it has nothing to do with the marriage... I think he's saying he wants his host, Mel, and the Queen's party all to come to Winterfell. Again, because it's safe there, and no longer gonna be safe at the Wall.

Quote

"And I want my Reek"-known to Ramsay and Mance,possibly Mel.

Hmm... OK, I've got nothing here. He's just trying to write like Ramsay to code the message? If Mel knows anything, perhaps it means disguise. Just like Ramsay disguised himself as Reek to gain access to Winterfell, Mance needs his Rattleshirt disguise back when they come?

Quote

"Send them to me,bastard,and I will not trouble you or your black crows" "Keep them from me,and I will cut out your bastard's heart,and eat it."

Beyond the Warg stuff, he could be telling Jon to stay out of everyone's business, and let/force everyone to go south from Castle Black.

That is, he's telling Jon to free the Wildlings (at the time, he acting like a king was sending them out all over the place), or else....

OK, reading it this way, as consistently Mance, isn't perfect, but almost everything sort of fits together, and in a way that Mel + Jon should be able to piece together if they read the letter together. Which, to Mance, it might make sense if they did.

[CrypticWeirwood]

MikeDC, on 17 April 2012 - 08:57 AM, said:

OK, reading it this way, as consistently Mance, isn't perfect, but almost everything sort of fits together, and in a way that Mel + Jon should be able to piece together if they read the letter together. Which, to Mance, it might make sense if they did.

Reason enough for Jon to have spent two hours with Tormund trying to decipher the real meaning of a message that mixes truths and lies.

[fassreiter]

I still don't understand why someone would use a code that is obviously spilling a lot of secrets in the process. If Mance wanted to tell Jon or Melisandre to get their asses to Winterfell, or to get his people to safety, or whatever, why doesn't he simply say so? And if he was afraid the letter would get intercepted, why not use some totally different kind of code, like, maybe a song, some northern history, or some old story? Use the Bael the Bard reference, for Gods' sake. Use any kind of metaphor, he is a singer after all, and there are many ways to code a message. The only code you wouldn't want to use is the one that tells everyone who might intercept the letter that 1. Jon sent a wildling to Winterfell to steal his sister, 2. said wildling was executed but isn't dead, 3.he is still at Winterfell and you might want to go looking for him, if you are Ramsay...

I mean, if you try to hide a certain meaning by spilling everything else to everyone who might no know already, that is pretty stupid. Especially considering the possibility that whoever got the letter might easily contact Ramsay, so he would realize that someone is writing under his name and start investigating. Why mention Ramsay at all? Why not write a short note under the pretense of a maester telling about the weather or what happens in the Riverlands or something, using some code words in between? No one who intercepted that kind of letter would ask twice about a hidden meaning. A letter from Ramsay that is obviously fabricated and/or is giving away secrets like the pink letter would raise suspicions against Jon in Ramsay's camp as well as in Stannis', the NW's or the northern Lords'. As a code, it is pathetic.

[MikeDC]

fassreiter, on 17 April 2012 - 01:19 PM, said:

I still don't understand why someone would use a code that is obviously spilling a lot of secrets in the process. If Mance wanted to tell Jon or Melisandre to get their asses to Winterfell, or to get his people to safety, or whatever, why doesn't he simply say so? And if he was afraid the letter would get intercepted, why not use some totally different kind of code, like, maybe a song, some northern history, or some old story? Use the Bael the Bard reference, for Gods' sake. Use any kind of metaphor, he is a singer after all, and there are many ways to code a message. The only code you wouldn't want to use is the one that tells everyone who might intercept the letter that 1. Jon sent a wildling to Winterfell to steal his sister, 2. said wildling was executed but isn't dead, 3.he is still at Winterfell and you might want to go looking for him, if you are Ramsay...

I mean, if you try to hide a certain meaning by spilling everything else to everyone who might no know already, that is pretty stupid. Especially considering the possibility that whoever got the letter might easily contact Ramsay, so he would realize that someone is writing under his name and start investigating. Why mention Ramsay at all? Why not write a short note under the pretense of a maester telling about the weather or what happens in the Riverlands or something, using some code words in between? No one who intercepted that kind of letter would ask twice about a hidden meaning. A letter from Ramsay that is obviously fabricated and/or is giving away secrets like the pink letter would raise suspicions against Jon in Ramsay's camp as well as in Stannis', the NW's or the northern Lords'. As a code, it is pathetic.

It has to be a code that says different things to different audiences.

Mance could care less about Jon or Stannis. Mance cares about the Wildlings. Currently, they think he's dead, and thus, they're heeding Stannis or Jon, and scattering to the wind. The obvious message to the Wildlings is "Hey, look, I, Mance Rayder, am alive and in Winterfell. Ignore Jon Snow and Stannis, and everyone come to me".

But, Mance can't come out and say that, because that letter would never be read to everyone.

[Rockroi]

I think much of the logic involved herein is reaching and is violating a major rule of mine: does the alternate explanation raise more question than it answers?

The letter, on its face, is written by Ramsey Bolton.  And the alternative explanation is "Its written by Mance."  Which may be.  But why would Mance use a code that nobody understood?  Seriously- Jon does not recognize it as a code at any point.  He says to himself that "He has Mance."  That's not somebody interpreting code.  It could be but it actually seems more likely that Ramsey wrote it.

That's the issue with a "code;"  a code requires a message that's coded and somebody someplace capable of decoding the message.  We have no evidence that somebody is out there who thinks this is a code.  As stated above, its certainly not Jon.  Otherwise, why READ THE LETTER to the entire NW?  The code is so buried that only somebody who knows the WHOLE CODE and all its permeations could decipher it.

Quote

It has to be a code that says different things to different audiences.

That's not a code; that's convenient interpretation.  A code usually means the exact same thing to everyone who has a cypher.  That's why its called a code.

Quote

Your false king is dead.."Possibly fabricated,though it is worth noting that Mel describes Mance as a false king to Jon.

Except that in this context MaAnce Ryder- in your interpretation is not, in fact, dead.  Moreover, here is a list of men who 1) have been King and 2) are dead:

Aerys Targaryen
Viserys Targaryen
Robert Baratheon
Renly Baratheon
Joffery Baratheon
Robb Stark
Balon Greyjoy

Add to that Stannis Baratheon and/or Mance Ryder and you can see how difficult this clue can be. Unless Mance was talking about Robb Stark.

Quote

1) Himself. Metaphorically, Mance is dead and there's only "Abel" left, tied to Mel's will.
2) Back to himself, Mance, because Abel (the false version) has been uncovered.

But why go through all this if, just a few lines later, you say that you have Mance in custody?  ITs a pretty remarkably convoluted "code."

Quote

Speculatively, this could be the secretly coded info. It could be that Mance is saying he's found the true red sword, Lightbringer, which is maybe a/the secret artifact held deep in the crypts of Winterfell.


Huge leap, I know, but it would explain a lot of why 1) everyone is interested in the crypts, 2) Mel sends Mance to Winterfell even though she sees "Arya" coming north on her own 3) this passage.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.  I find this claim laughable.  I mean do we really think Mance knew that Mel would SOMEHOW know that this would mean he found the true Lightbringer?  I mean, if this is the case... why the FUCK is Mance telling Mel, the one person who probably thinks Lightbringer is Lightbringer?  I don't think she would be so cool about that?  If that's the case ... how the HELL would Mance know to develop a code to make that statement even translateable?

I think it has nothing to do with the marriage... I think he's saying he wants his host, Mel, and the Queen's party all to come to Winterfell. Again, because it's safe there, and no longer gonna be safe at the Wall.

It seems far more likely that the writer is Ramsey, that he is saying Stannis is dead and he is saying he has Lightbringer.

Quote

"Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell.Come see them bastard"Again this could be false and even if it were true,not enough to draw Jon south.

OK, I'm falling down here. Could be the washerwomen?

Could be Ramsey being nuts?

Quote

"Your false king lied and so did you.You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-The-Wall.Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me."

Maybe Mance was lying in the previous sentence. "I, your false king, am lying". His friends the spearwives aren't dead. Crackpot time:

The bride stealing reference is to do with Mel sending Mance to Winterfell. Ie, away from his bride.

Did Mance's bride Dalla really die? This happens off camera and isn't talked about all that much. Then, there's Val, who seems to look a lot like her...

Alternatively, Mance could be said to have betrayed the Night's Watch by taking the "bride" of his freedom/his women/his relationships with the wildlings. He's submitted that freedom to Melisandre, and is asking for it back in exchange for him providing her with the "red sword".

Which come to think of it, could be Lightbringer, or it could metaphorically just mean that somehow he's brought down the Boltons from within, and left Winterfell open to occupation.

Or... Theon with the assistance of women sent to WF by Jon Snow stole Ramsey's bride.  I know this is crazy, but why would such a code NOT ONLY be so crazy to interpret (actually impossible) but it would describe other events that actually happened?  That's a really terrible code.

Quote

Or it refers to his freedom, his people, or at least his women (I don't have time to look it up, but he's said he's got a weakness for the fair sex).

In short, Mance is saying I've fulfilled my part of the bargain, I've accomplished the (secret) task you set for me, now it's safe to bring me my people. Unstated, it might be that Mance wants everyone he cares about in Winterfell, where they'll be safe from the Others.

But that presupposes that that was part of the bargain and, again, we have no knowledge of this.  Again, it would HAVE to be part of the bargain if MAnce wrote it and meant for it to be understood.  If he meant for it to be understood it means he floated that idea to somebody.  At least Mel.  Which sounds nuts.

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",,but I have made him a cloak from the cloak of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell".Human skin is not a great insulator.But the number of "washerwomen" is correct and we know at least two of them have been caught or killed,the survivors may have given Abel up.As noted up thread,a possible allusion to Varamyr Sixskins,probably not known to the Boltons,but known to Jon,Mel,Mance and Stannis.

But that presumes its a reference to Varamyr Sixskins to begin with.  Its seems far more likely that its a reference to the six women who were killed.

Again, think about the code-maker.  If this code is not understood or interpreted properly, than it SOUNDS an awful lot like Mance is basically dead and so are his women.

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I think it has nothing to do with the marriage... I think he's saying he wants his host, Mel, and the Queen's party all to come to Winterfell. Again, because it's safe there, and no longer gonna be safe at the Wall.

But the line you refer to is "I want the False KIng's Queen"... but didn't you just say a moment ago that MAnce was talking about himself when he said "False King?"  So, which is it?  Again, bad code if the meanings keep changing.

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(in response to the line "I want my Reek") Hmm... OK, I've got nothing here. He's just trying to write like Ramsay to code the message? If Mel knows anything, perhaps it means disguise. Just like Ramsay disguised himself as Reek to gain access to Winterfell, Mance needs his Rattleshirt disguise back when they come?

Except nobody know who Reek is or was.  And if you want to sound like Ramsey than maybe ... he's actually Ramsey.

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Reason enough for Jon to have spent two hours with Tormund trying to decipher the real meaning of a message that mixes truths and lies.

Why would Jon share it with Tormund if Tormund does not know the code or what was going on?  Why not share it with Mel at that point?

Seriously, we are bending over backward to make this a code when it may, very well, be a message from Ramsey Bolton to Jon Snow.

Edited by Rockroi, 17 April 2012 - 07:03 PM.

[SeanF]

I think the letter was written by Ramsay.  It just sounds like him.  But it sounds as if it's been written by a man who's angry and desperate, not a man who's just won a great battle.  IMHO:-

1.  It's true (obviously) that Reek and "Arya" have escaped.  Judging by Theon 1, "Arya" has been sent North prior to the battle.  Theon may have been executed, or otherwise escaped.  It's natural that Ramsay should assume that Mance, Jon, Stannis, and Theon were all working hand in glove, even if we know they weren't.

2.  Roose Bolton must be dead, or otherwise out of action.  Roose would never have let his son write such a letter, in his place.  A letter from Roose would be cool and mocking.

3.  I think it's likely that Mance is a captive.  I think it's unlikely that Ramsay could know about the glamour that was placed on him without having got the information out of him.  It's possible, though, that he got the information from a captured  spearwife.

4.  I believe that Stannis defeated his army.  Stannis is by far the better commander, has had the Karstark plot revealed to him, is numerically matched with Ramsay, and the Manderlys are planning to switch sides.

5.  As I say, I think Ramsay is desperate.  Had he won, why not march up to the Wall and make a clean sweep of his enemies?  Why offer to allow Jon Snow, an enemy, to remain in his post, and remain as a threat to him?  Isn't it more likely that he's just hoping he can acquire some hostages, in order to have something to bargain with Stannis?

[Feather Crystal]

The most obvious thing that I can point out regarding the letter is that it happened at the end of A Dance With Dragons, but the new Theon POV is from the new The Winds of Winter, where we plainly see that Stannis is not dead. Are we to assume that the beginning of the sixth book is starting prior to the fifth? Or does this mean that the letter is a confirmed fake? Stannis tells Massey that there may be rumors that he is dead, and I am inclined to believe that the letter is the work of Stannis.

Edited by Melisandra, 18 April 2012 - 09:20 AM.