496 replies to this topic

[Feather Crystal]

Stargareyen, on 19 April 2012 - 10:31 AM, said:

However dire the conditions, Stannis would not stoop to levels as low as this letter to trigger Jon to do something against his principles. Mance, on the other hand, being a wildling and not really a fan of Jon, can be thought of as a author. This is the best way he could have communicated back to Melisandre since Jon would read all the letters brought back by ravens. Mel will nurse back Jon to health and in return expect him to follow her cues. The rebellion of the Night's Watch could be suppressed by more of her magic tricks, probably she will give birth to few more shadows

Doesn't Melisandre need a man to create the shadow baby from? She drew two of them from Stannis, but she worried that a third would weaken him too much. She offered herself to Davos and he feared of her creating a shadow baby from him. Do you think Jon would allow Mel to seduce him into creating a shadow baby? I think shadow baby-making needs an active and engaged partner!

I don't think Stannis is "stooping" here. He was defeated once at the Battle of the Blackwater, which was won with some trickery (luring the ships into a wildfire trap), and I'm thinking Stannis would feel his actions are necessary. How long were his troops out there in the snow, running out of food? Desperate times call for desperate measures.

[MikeDC]

fassreiter, on 19 April 2012 - 09:39 AM, said:

Interesting thoughts about Asha.

About the pink letter:

1. It is not described in what kindof hand it is written. It could be the same hand that wrote the letter to Jon and Asha before, but we don't know. GRRM does not elaborate at all on the letter's outward appearance.
2. This is why we don't even know if the letter was written in blood or ink. Tormund's remark about having a pot of ink and being able to write about anything he wished hints at the fact that it was written in ink.
3. Therefore, no mention is made of any 'pink' blood. The name 'pink letter' is not used in the books, it is a term that was created by the internet community. It refers to the pink sealing wax the Boltons use and which is smeared on the letter.

Good points. Dunno how I got that the pink letter was written in pink. In any case, it seems telling to me that GRRM chooses to lay out the variety facts authenticating the first letter's author as Ramsay, and then withdrawing those facts from the second letter.

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Many of the Lords started to ride to meet Stannis so they are not present.

Unclear either way. In Dance, they hadn't yet left when Theon and Arya escaped. It's quite possible the departure could be held up for at least a bit in the confusion. In  Theon I, Theon elaborates on what we've heard from others, that Bolton is a cautious man, who isn't just going to leave the safety of Winterfell, while Ramsay can be expected to act rashly and gallop off into the snow to find his bride.  

Among other things, the timeline for when Ramsay would write this letter seems a weak point.

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Wiat, are you saying that after bragging about killing Stannois and six woemn and insulting JOn and describing improisoning Mance etc...and in skinning 6 women... that Ramsey's letter isn't vile enough?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Words are wind. What makes Ramsay especially vile is writing in human blood and sending along pieces of people he's tortured.

Edited by MikeDC, 19 April 2012 - 12:00 PM.

[MikeDC]

Melisandra, on 19 April 2012 - 11:43 AM, said:

Doesn't Melisandre need a man to create the shadow baby from? She drew two of them from Stannis, but she worried that a third would weaken him too much. She offered herself to Davos and he feared of her creating a shadow baby from him. Do you think Jon would allow Mel to seduce him into creating a shadow baby? I think shadow baby-making needs an active and engaged partner!

I don't think Stannis is "stooping" here. He was defeated once at the Battle of the Blackwater, which was won with some trickery (luring the ships into a wildfire trap), and I'm thinking Stannis would feel his actions are necessary. How long were his troops out there in the snow, running out of food? Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Boning Melisandre while he's married to Selyse in order to create a demon to go kill his brother seems.... a little less than fully honorable.

[Feather Crystal]

MikeDC, on 19 April 2012 - 12:04 PM, said:

Boning Melisandre while he's married to Selyse in order to create a demon to go kill his brother seems.... a little less than fully honorable.

How did you think those shadow babies were made?

[MikeDC]

Melisandra, on 19 April 2012 - 12:08 PM, said:

How did you think those shadow babies were made?

Stork?

But yeah, I was just sarcastically agreeing with you that Stannis doesn't seem above doing some seriously messed up stuff

[fassreiter]

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What could that letter have said that would make you suspect it WAS writen by Ramsey? In other words, is there ANYTHING that that letter could have contained that would make you think, "That could be Ramsey"? Because right now, the man's signature, his hysterical hatred, his desire to recapture Reek, his need to lash out, etc.none of it is enough. To me, I think that letter could have said, "This is Ramsey Bolton, formerly Ramsey Snow; this is NOT Mance Ryder! This letter is NOT writen in an elaborate code! This letter is 100% true!... etc" And you would say, "That sounds just like something Mance would say....

This made me laugh, I can almost see that!! And you are most likely right and Ramsay did write the letter, but still it is fun to look for other options. By the way, one more point that supports your opinion: Ramsay can read and write. It's in ACOK, Theon is worried that 'Reek' (= Ramsay) might have hidden a written account about how they killed the miller's boys, so he doesn't dare kill him. Theon even wonders how it's possible that someone like Reek is literate.

Edited by fassreiter, 19 April 2012 - 12:46 PM.

[CrypticWeirwood]

MikeDC, on 19 April 2012 - 12:04 PM, said:

Boning Melisandre while he's married to Selyse in order to create a demon to go kill his brother seems.... a little less than fully honorable.

I got the distict impression that Stannis wasn’t fully informed about what would come of their coupling. Remember how he was sleeping (and IIRC having bad dreams) at the time of Renly’s eldritch assassinations. Didn’t he also afterwards deny having been the hand that slew his brother? Stannis seems enough of a traditionalist to shun becoming a kinslayer by his own hand.

Edited by CrypticWeirwood, 19 April 2012 - 02:51 PM.

[darrylzero]

CrypticWeirwood, on 19 April 2012 - 02:51 PM, said:

I got the distict impression that Stannis wasn’t fully informed about what would come of their coupling. Remember how he was sleeping (and IIRC having bad dreams) at the time of Renly’s eldritch assassinations. Didn’t he also afterwards deny having been the hand that slew his brother? Stannis seems enough of a traditionalist to shun becoming a kinslayer by his own hand.

He sure seems to know what's going on vis-a-vis Courtnay Penrose.  Interesting that Mel might have kept his role in Renly's demise a secret from him.  Not sure I buy it, though.

[MikeDC]

darrylzero, on 19 April 2012 - 03:44 PM, said:

He sure seems to know what's going on vis-a-vis Courtnay Penrose.  Interesting that Mel might have kept his role in Renly's demise a secret from him.  Not sure I buy it, though.

I think it's conceivable he didn't know until after the fact, but as you point out, it's pretty clear he didn't exactly disavow Mel, or even put a stop to the shadow baby making. She's his shadowbabymomma.

I guess it depends on the technicalities of kinslaying. Is it ok if you don't do it yourself, but high-five the person who did?

Edited by MikeDC, 19 April 2012 - 06:09 PM.

[Rockroi]

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And you are most likely right and Ramsay did write the letter, but still it is fun to look for other options.

Absolutely.  But if we are going to disccuss and debate these other options then we have to do so in the realm of evidence and there is a lot of theories that are untethered to evidence or tethered to a pantomime of evidence.

Its fun to say a whole lot of thing sbut if we are going to debate it has to be with a more rational bend.

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

After reading the Theon chapter some months back, I've been increasingly thinking that Stannis is being set up for yet another shocking character death.   This makes me very sad.   I hope I'm wrong...   but I've got a gut feeling about this one...

[MtnLion]

Sword Of Mid Afternoon, on 19 April 2012 - 09:11 PM, said:

After reading the Theon chapter some months back, I've been increasingly thinking that Stannis is being set up for yet another shocking character death. This makes me very sad. I hope I'm wrong... but I've got a gut feeling about this one...

I think that he is being setup as an antagonist, along with Melisandre.  Anyway that is my theory on how we go forward.  It will be some time before we see the finality, because we still need to have Daenerys prove Stannis false (Blue eyed king that casts no shadow.)

[Sansouci]

Ghost714, on 18 January 2012 - 05:50 PM, said:

This battle is going to be amazing!!!

If you remember correctly, Tywin Lannister was more worried about Stannis Baratheon, then he was Robb Stark, and Renely Baratheon. Despite Robb and Renely both having larger armies than Stannis.
And I believe we are going to finally get to see a prime example, of why Tywin was most worried about Stannis!!! Woo!! It's going to be so bad ass!!!

Stannis, in this new Theon chapter, was amazing. And I believe we only saw the tip of the ice burg, in regards to how awesome Stannis is going to be. (and just for the record, I am not a huge Stannis fan, but I believe In giving credit when it's deserved)

Stannis has a big upper hand here. Roose Bolton does not know, that Stannis knows, that Roose knows where Stannis is. (ha ha say that ten times fast)
Anyway take that fact, and throw in the ice lake, and the fact that Bolton is expecting Manderly and Karstark to fight for Bolton (Manderly will turn his cloak, and Karstark's men will fight for Stannis).......Take all this into consideration, and Stannis has a recipe, for a pure Bolton ass-whooping!!!!

I completely agree. I read the gift and thought "Holy s***! Stannis is hard. I really thought that after he rattled off his military accomplishments in comparison to the Bastard's. Moreover, Stannis has the lesser North lords with him who I assume are experts warriors in snowy conditions. I suspect Stannis may be setting the Bastard up for a little icy guerrilla warfare. Stannis has proven himself to be a man to act less than honorably. Yes this will be a hell of an outcome.

[eivers]

Couldn't sleep last night and was thinking about how could Stannis gain more troops, Then I remembered how Stannis mentioned the Golden Company. Now he doesn't know they are in the Stormlands supporting Aegon. If something was to happen to Aegon the Golden Company would need a backer if they ever hope to get anything out of the invasion. Without the legitimacy of a royal backer the Golden Company is pretty much screwed.

[theemir87]

I think if Stannis manages to take the north will have a baratheon vs tagaryen round 2, neither side can let the other survive

[Lady of Long Lake]

MikeDC, on 19 April 2012 - 12:04 PM, said:

Boning Melisandre while he's married to Selyse in order to create a demon to go kill his brother seems.... a little less than fully honorable.

I don't think he could do it undrugged. Mel has lotsa powders or potions she uses for her magic. She mentions she's running low on them at the Wall. I think one of her potions might be like a date rape drug or an amnesia drug. No way Stannis would act like Robert willingly.

[Dornish Bannerman]

After reading the Theon exerpt after finally finishing all the books in under two months (not bad, eh?) I am sort of confused.

When does this chapter take place? And does it confirm that the letter from Ramsay concering the death of Stannis is fake? Is this before the battle that Ramsay tells about and therefore it takes place before the end of ADwD?

[CindySnow]

darrylzero, on 19 April 2012 - 03:44 PM, said:

He sure seems to know what's going on vis-a-vis Courtnay Penrose.  Interesting that Mel might have kept his role in Renly's demise a secret from him.  Not sure I buy it, though.

He also was right there when Mel killed Maester Cressen. Yes, Cressen and Penrose may have been like family to him but they were not his family by blood. Stannis would kill Renly in battle but I do not think he would consent to kill him the way Mel did. Therefore, I feel Mel kept the whole truth regarding Renly's death from Stannis.

As for Stannis obtaining an army, he sent Massey over to the Free Cities to obtain sellswords. Yes, he does not know The Golden Company is in Westeros, but he will find out when Aegon takes Storms End back with them. Massey will come back with an army for Stannis, maybe The Second Sons? Maybe some Faceless Men? Who knows, there is still so much more to come!

[MikeDC]

CindySnow, on 01 May 2012 - 07:15 AM, said:

He also was right there when Mel killed Maester Cressen. Yes, Cressen and Penrose may have been like family to him but they were not his family by blood. Stannis would kill Renly in battle but I do not think he would consent to kill him the way Mel did. Therefore, I feel Mel kept the whole truth regarding Renly's death from Stannis.

As for Stannis obtaining an army, he sent Massey over to the Free Cities to obtain sellswords. Yes, he does not know The Golden Company is in Westeros, but he will find out when Aegon takes Storms End back with them. Massey will come back with an army for Stannis, maybe The Second Sons? Maybe some Faceless Men? Who knows, there is still so much more to come!

Completely speculative, but here's when I read this from the Theon sample chapter:

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"Your place is where I say it is.  I have five hundred swords as good as you, or better, but you have a pleasing manner and a glib tongue, and those will be of more use to me at Braavos then here.  The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me.  You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords.  A company of good repute, if you can find one.  The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract.  Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be.  But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch.  Archers as well, we need more bows."
Ser Justin's hair had fallen down across one eye.  He pushed it back and said, "The captains of the free companies will join a lord more readily than a mere knight, Your Grace.  I hold neither lands nor title, why should they sell their swords to me?"
     "Go to them with both fists full of golden dragons," the king said, in an acid tone.  "That should prove persuasive.  Twenty thousand men should suffice.  Do not return with fewer.

I take note that Massey and Stannis make a good comedy team. Stannis is the straight man, and he never gets what he wants. Massey is scheming with every sentence, but doesn't seem to be an inherently dishonorable guy. He has fought and endured plenty of hardships with Stannis. He will do the honorable thing and not just run off with the gold. Stannis being a hard ass and saying not to come back with less makes it almost a given that Massey will come back with less. Faceless Men are expensive... maybe instead of "some", he comes back with one: Arya Stark.

Of course Stannis will still bitch and moan, and certainly not give Massey his lordship because he didn't fulfill the exact terms of the deal, but he could and certainly would make good use of a FM. In short, comedy will ensue.

And, maybe I'm missing something, but so far I don't see any other plot device in motion to get her back to Westeros.

[Feather Crystal]

Dornish Bannerman, on 01 May 2012 - 06:50 AM, said:

After reading the Theon exerpt after finally finishing all the books in under two months (not bad, eh?) I am sort of confused.

When does this chapter take place? And does it confirm that the letter from Ramsay concering the death of Stannis is fake? Is this before the battle that Ramsay tells about and therefore it takes place before the end of ADwD?

We don't know where this new sample PoV (chapter) will fit in the next book, or whether or not it overlaps aDwD. This whole thread has already discussed if the letter is fake or not with many opinions shared. Have you read the entire thread? I know there's a lot here, but you can read everyone's opinions within the threads.

I'm one of many who believe the letter is a fake. I believe Stannis faked his losses for two reasons: 1) to gain access inside Winterfell disgised as Manderley/Frey troops, and more importantly, 2) to enflame Jon enough to leave the Wall and his vows behind to rally the North. Stannis believes that he needs Jon in order to bring the North to his side. Jon declined Stannis's offer to be Lord of Winterfell when Stannis was yet at the Wall, so I believe Stannis felt extreme measures were necessary, especially with the dire straights that he is currently under in the blizzard outside Winterfell.