The "Dragon Rider" [aDwD Spoilers]

[Young Wolf's Vanguard]

This isn't necessarily directed at the OP, but I'm kind of baffled that people think Quentyn's storyline was pointless when it's seems pretty obvious to me that his death will have serious repercussions in Dorne and may cause Doran to throw in with Aegon over Dany or even work to undermine Dany when she arrives. I think that's why there are so many bizarre/convoluted Quentyn theories; people are only looking at his plot insofar as it relates to ADWD and they aren't looking ahead to see how it might play out.

exactly

it also gives us few new and interesting characters

[Ladywhiskers]

This is really well argued and definitely a possibility. I agree with most of the points you've made.

While reading I was SURE he got through to Viserion. Though that doesn't speak for Rhaegal, who might have actually killed him.

And it makes sense that Quentyn should ride Viserion. The contract that bound Viserys to Arriane became the contract that bound Q to Dany. So in a way, he has taken over the role of Viserys. And Rhaegal will go to Rhaegar's son (whether it be Jon or Aegon)

but as much as I wish it were true I just don't think we can hope for both Jon AND Q to survive.

We'll see though. And I hope you're right. I just can't help feeling that GRRM would give us that satisfaction.

I was pretty sure he at least piqued Viserion's interest. Viserion isn't the one who killed him. Rheagal did it. He may have thought he was protecting Viserion, or maybe he didn't want Viserion flying away with some stupid human and leaving him alone. I got the distinct impression that if Rheagal hadn't been there, things might have worked out for Quentyn.

[Fearsome Fred]

This isn't necessarily directed at the OP, but I'm kind of baffled that people think Quentyn's storyline was pointless when it's seems pretty obvious to me that his death will have serious repercussions in Dorne and may cause Doran to throw in with Aegon over Dany or even work to undermine Dany when she arrives.

I don't know if we are still talking in terms of story efficiency, but if we are, I do not see the benefits. My theory gets Dany to Westeros faster. Your theory does not, and, when she finally DOES get there, it further complicates any trajectory towards any encounter with the Starks, the Lannisters, and/or the Iron Throne.

Saying the purpose of Quentyn's story line is to create conflicts between Dany and Dorne only begs the question of why GRRM wants to create conflicts between Dany and Dorne.

Saying the purpose is to cause Doran to throw in with Young Griff only begs the question of why we are spending time with either of these people. Doran and Young Griff are not main characters.

[Rose of Winterfell]

I'm not sure what you mean by "same miraculous escape". Dany succeeded in riding a dragon; and, under my theory, Quentyn did as well.

Foreshadowing seems to promise us 3 dragonriders. If two riders getting started in a single 1000-page book is "a bit too much", then I wonder, how many total volumes do you expect in the series?

I mean from the perspective of a writer. It isn't likely that you'd write 2 scenes where basically the same thing happens, especially in one book- in this case a face off with a dragon, lots and lots of fire and the risk of death by burning, for both of them just to fly away. It would be far too repetitve (hence why Tyrion's 'I demand trial by battle' ploy couldn't work twice on the page-it was unrealistic that he'd survive both times, and makes for quite poor storylining).

To answer your question- we have two more books, and two more dragons. Seems to add up from where I'm sitting. Besides, the dragons don't have to be tamed in the same way, in a confrontation. As has been pointed out, they could be warged, or controlled by horns... a bit of variety :)

[Fearsome Fred]

I mean from the perspective of a writer. It isn't likely that you'd write 2 scenes where basically the same thing happens, especially in one book- in this case a face off with a dragon, lots and lots of fire and the risk of death by burning, for both of them just to fly away.

Becoming a dragon rider, by necessity, involves facing a dragon, facing a risk of death by fire in the process, and then flying on the dragon.

To answer your question- we have two more books, and two more dragons.

More than that, in both cases, I am guessing.

Seems to add up from where I'm sitting. Besides, the dragons don't have to be tamed in the same way, in a confrontation. As has been pointed out, they could be warged, or controlled by horns... a bit of variety :)

Okay. So we get a second dragonrider in Book 6, and a third in book 7. When will Dany finally head for Westeros? Book 8?

Once she and the dragons get to Westeros (in book 6, hopefully), there is plenty of room for other dragon-controlling and dragon-stealing tricks in books 7, 8 or 9.

But to get the dragons to Westeros, they need to be brought under some kind of control. Seems to me that finding a unique and fascinatingly different story for each dragon, before this can occur, ought not be a priority.

[Jory]

What if Daenerys never comes to Westeros? :D

[Fearsome Fred]

What if Daenerys never comes to Westeros? :D

It could happen. The next volume could take 10 years, and only succeed in resolving the climax in Meereen; and GRRM could announce his retirement from writing seven years later, at the age of 80, having only written 200 pages of the next volume.

[tze]

I don't know if we are still talking in terms of story efficiency, but if we are, I do not see the benefits. My theory gets Dany to Westeros faster. Your theory does not, and, when she finally DOES get there, it further complicates any trajectory towards any encounter with the Starks, the Lannisters, and/or the Iron Throne.

Which might easily be GRRM's plan.

Saying the purpose of Quentyn's story line is to create conflicts between Dany and Dorne only begs the question of why GRRM wants to create conflicts between Dany and Dorne.

Because a conflict between Dany and Dorne will be a huge issue if/when Dany finally lands? Much has been made of the fact that Dorne is practically unconquerable, even with dragons. And if Dany wants to regain the Iron Throne, she'll have to get control of Dorne somehow, which is incredibly difficult to do militarily. And now, with Quentyn's death, a diplomatic solution to getting Dornish support for Queen Dany seems to be off the table. Quentyn's death has been set up to play havoc with Dany's conquest if/when she finally comes to Westeros.

Saying the purpose is to cause Doran to throw in with Young Griff only begs the question of why we are spending time with either of these people. Doran and Young Griff are not main characters.

I'm not sure what you mean by "main" characters, especially in this series. Clearly Dorne has an important future role to play, given the time we've spent with Doran, Arianne, and the Sand Snakes. Young Griff is launching a war of conquest on Westeros, and GRRM has stated that we will have a second Dance of the Dragons. To me, it sounds like Young Griff and Dany will end up fighting each other, not allying with each other, and Quentyn's death means Dorne will ally with Aegon, not Dany. Given that every other Great House either rebelled against the Targaryens or is currently de facto in charge of the kingdom, the loss of Dornish support via the Dornishmen blaming Dany and her dragons for Quentyn's death seems to have huge plot-related consequences for Dany.

What if Daenerys never comes to Westeros? :D

I can't see this happening.

[Faint]

I've never found the dragons logistically problematic; after all, they can fly. For all we know, one of the remaining dragons is meant to be Tyrion's and the other . . . well, it might be flying to Castle Black right now.

8. QUENTYN'S SURREAL BURNING . . .

Incidentally, this where the theory falls apart. There isn't anything surreal about the burning. The only reason he didn't die in his own POV is because GRRM refuses to let his characters die so (i.e., Ned Stark, Arys Oakheart, Catelyn Tully, Brienne of Tarth, Arya Stark, and so on and so forth).

[Fearsome Fred]

Incidentally, this where the theory falls apart. There isn't anything surreal about the burning. The only reason he didn't die in his own POV is because GRRM refuses to let his characters die so (i.e., Ned Stark, Arys Oakheart, Catelyn Tully, Brienne of Tarth, Arya Stark, and so on and so forth).

I did not complain about Quentyn not dying in his own POV. I gave OTHER reasons why I thought his burning was surreal, and I see no counterargument here.

[Fearsome Fred]

Which might easily be GRRM's plan.

Right. He may stall indefinitely, branch out indefinitely, and never finish what he once marketed as a "trilogy". But I was trying to be optimistic.

I'm not sure what you mean by "main" characters, especially in this series.

The 6 survivors of the original Core 8: Dany, Tyrion, Bran, Sansa, Arya, Jon.

[Jory]

I think I'd like a Darth Daenerys riding across the sea on an undead Drogon, marrying Walder Frey, and giving Viserion and Rhaegal to Black Walder and Hosteen. Then Daenerys decrees that everyone else shall be married to her as well because the Targaryens were polygamists but she wants to one-up them by marrying all of her subjects, in a grand wedding, and it's actually a "Reddish Brown" Wedding and they all become slaves to the evil dragon mind magic except for Jon who doesn't go because he's angsting about his Night's Watch vows and then it's up to him to travel into the volcano on Dragonstone on Shaggydog's back and fight the Mecha-Renly that was being built by the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy and hijack it because it's the only thing that can stop undead Drogon from burning the Wall down and letting the Others come through. Then we have a battle on the Trident with Drogon and Mecha-Renly fighting and Mecha-Renly throwing Incendiary Peaches at undead Drogon.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't know if we are still talking in terms of story efficiency, but if we are, I do not see the benefits. My theory gets Dany to Westeros faster. Your theory does not, and, when she finally DOES get there, it further complicates any trajectory towards any encounter with the Starks, the Lannisters, and/or the Iron Throne.

Saying the purpose of Quentyn's story line is to create conflicts between Dany and Dorne only begs the question of why GRRM wants to create conflicts between Dany and Dorne.

Saying the purpose is to cause Doran to throw in with Young Griff only begs the question of why we are spending time with either of these people. Doran and Young Griff are not main characters.

I'm sorry, did I theorize about how Dany would get to Westeros?

I'm not talking about Dany getting to Westeros, per se. I'm saying that people only seem to be looking at Quentyn's storyline as it relates just to ADWD, and aren't looking ahead to see how it could impact the plot when Dany gets to Westeros and needs Dorne on her side, whenever or however that may be. At this point, I think she's getting there somehow and can't really be arsed to think too much about the specifics of it — she'll get there when she gets there and that's as much as I'm willing to bet on at this point. My (missed?) point is that people were expecting some payoff with Quentyn and they didn't get it and weren't meant to get it. That's why there seem to be so many bizarre Quentyn theories (he was fake! he's alive!) — people can't get their heads around the fact that his character's ultimate "payoff" has yet to fully happen. His ultimate purpose is to create tension between Dany and Dorne as a dead guy. He was meant to die.

[jarl the climber]

I have to agree that Quentyn is toast. I also believe that it will have ramifications in the story going forward. If Aegon is fake, how will this effect Dornes perception of him, He is posing himself or letting himself get posed as Dorans nephew maybe, will Doran back him if he knows him to be false? Is it posibble that Connington will take Dornish support for granted like Renly? Could Dorne end up backing Stannis? It seems unlikely, the most obvious thing that Dorne would do is support Aegon over Dany and Dorne always does what people think it will do.

[Fearsome Fred]

I'm sorry, did I theorize about how Dany would get to Westeros?

Did I say you had?

My (missed?) point is that people were expecting some payoff with Quentyn and they didn't get it and weren't meant to get it. That's why there seem to be so many bizarre Quentyn theories (he was fake! he's alive!) — people can't get their heads around the fact that his character's ultimate "payoff" has yet to fully happen.

We are all perfectly well aware that we have yet to see a payoff for Quentyn. That is why we are theorizing as to what that payoff will be.

His ultimate purpose is to create tension between Dany and Dorne as a dead guy. He was meant to die.

Well, that's YOUR theory. And I certainly don't see much in its favor - certainly not story efficiency. Will she spend 3 volumes embroiled in the "Dornese Knott" after she finally escapes Meereen?

Nor can I see why Quentyn's death WOULD create tension with Dorne.

The situation as I understand it is this: Darkstar injured and perhaps killed Myrcella, a fact with Doran is desperately trying to keep a secret, since its revelation will result in a war that Dorne will lose. Doran is desperately stalling for time, while scrambling for allies from abroad.

When Dany comes, Dorne will welcome her with open arms. They have no choice.

[littleRickon]

I think I want to add one more point

5) GRRM can't resurrect everybody he presents as dead towards the end of ADWD. I think in terms of likelihood to come back I'll go with Jon, then Stannis, Quentyn and then Kevan and Pycelle (the last being basically <1%). I think it would be overdramatic if 3 of those came back or were revealed as fake-outs, so this makes it more likely Q is dead for good.

Also, is anybody else seeing the possibility that Dany is out of the Meereenese knot already by the end of ADWD? She seemingly flies off a long way with Drogon (her riders didn't find her yet, the stream is much smaller than the one next to or through Meereen), and she chances into a Khalasaar (one of the Drogo bloodriders??). It was prophesied that her son would unite the khalasaars into one and mount the world, including westeros. She thought that the son would be Raego, but it might well be Drogon. Could she finally let go of the Slavers bay, embrace the chance at hand and remember the original plan of leading the dothraaki across the narrow sea? I know it's not strong as a theory yet, just wanted to know if people have been thinking about this...

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Did I say you had?

Um ... yeah?

This:

My theory gets Dany to Westeros faster. Your theory does not, and, when she finally DOES get there, it further complicates any trajectory towards any encounter with the Starks, the Lannisters, and/or the Iron Throne.

What else were you talking about?

Well, that's YOUR theory. And I certainly don't see much in its favor - certainly not story efficiency. Will she spend 3 volumes embroiled in the "Dornese Knott" after she finally escapes Meereen?

1. It's Dornish.

2. I didn't say anything about a Dornish knot. All I think it means is that Dany will be expecting Dorne to support her and it won't. Simple as that. You're the one assuming that it would take "three volumes," certainly not me.

Nor can I see why Quentyn's death WOULD create tension with Dorne.

You don't think that Dany's dragons roasting Doran Martell's son after she laughed at him and rejected his marriage proposal would cause some tension?

The situation as I understand it is this: Darkstar injured and perhaps killed Myrcella, a fact with Doran is desperately trying to keep a secret, since its revelation will result in a war that Dorne will lose. Doran is desperately stalling for time, while scrambling for allies from abroad.

... What? He injured her but she's not dead, only disfigured.

When Dany comes, Dorne will welcome her with open arms. They have no choice.

Actually they do. They can side with "Aegon" and I fully expect that to be their choice.

Keep theorizing if you'd like. I'm taking bets on the over/under until this thread ends up locked like the last one for want of evidence. :)

[Fearsome Fred]

Apple Martini wrote:

What else were you talking about?

I was explaining that story efficiency favors my theory, and that I cannot see that yours offers similar benefits. In this context, I mentioned that your theory does not (for instance) get Dany to Westeros faster.

I never claimed this was the purpose of your theory, obviously.

2. I didn't say anything about a Dornish knot. All I think it means is that Dany will be expecting Dorne to support her and it won't.

'Cause Dany's not as smart as you?

Simple as that.

So your theory is ... it's all leading up to .... NOTHING! If all Dorne is going to do is NOT support Dany, then why not just leave Dorne out of the story?

You're the one assuming that it would take "three volumes," certainly not me.

All I am saying is that I cannot see that your theory helps the story progress towards an ultimate conclusion. You are merely anticipating a possible consequence of Quentyn's death.

You don't think that Dany's dragons roasting Doran Martell's son after she laughed at him and rejected his marriage proposal would cause some tension?

Depends on how melodramatic and silly you want to be. I don't buy this nonsense, and I doubt Doran will either.

... What? He injured her but she's not dead, only disfigured.

More likely, she's dead. Arianne gave her a golden crown; and Darkstar gave her a golden shroud.

Doran says she survived, but that's exactly what he WOULD say to anyone he does not trust absolutely.

Meanwhile, we know he is hiding something, because he says so.

Also when he tells Ser Balon the story of Daenerys and the Water Gardens, he leaves out part of the story. Probably, he does not want to remind Ser Balon of the possibility that a lowborn girl can resemble a princess. We know he is hinting at secrets when he tells Obara this, because he practically comes out and says so.

He's got a lowborn girl, with a maimed face, impersonating Myrcella at the Water Gardens. He is desperately hoping Ser Balon will have trouble seeing past the maimed face, and will take her for the real Myrcella. Meanwhile, he is delaying their meeting as long as possible. Once they meet, he intends to delay/prevent any journey to Kings Landing as long as possible. Such a journey, when it does occur, will be attacked by bandits yelling "Half-man".

Actually they do. They can side with "Aegon" and I fully expect that to be their choice.

They don't have much choice about that either. They are desperate for allies, and "Aegon" came first.

[kephv]

in its favor - certainly not story efficiency. Will she spend 3 volumes embroiled in the "Dornese Knott" after she finally escapes Meereen?

Nor can I see why Quentyn's death WOULD create tension with Dorne.

Isn't it obvious why that would create tension with Dorne? They sent her a prince and she's sending them back a corpse.

I was explaining that story efficiency favors my theory, and that I cannot see that yours offers similar benefits. In this context, I mentioned that your theory does not (for instance) get Dany to Westeros faster.

Nor does yours, necessarily.

More likely, she's dead. Arianne gave her a golden crown; and Darkstar gave her a golden shroud.

Doran says she survived, but that's exactly what he WOULD say to anyone he does not trust absolutely.

Meanwhile, we know he is hiding something, because he says so.

Also when he tells Ser Balon the story of Daenerys and the Water Gardens, he leaves out part of the story. Probably, he does not want to remind Ser Balon of the possibility that a lowborn girl can resemble a princess. We know he is hinting at secrets when he tells Obara this, because he practically comes out and says so.

He's got a lowborn girl, with a maimed face, impersonating Myrcella at the Water Gardens.

As far as we know, she's still alive. Doran tells Arianne as much in Feast and there's no reason for him to lie to her. I see no reason to make things more complicated than they actually are.

Not that it makes any sense anyway: you don't think Cersei wouldn't notice that she's not her daughter when she gets back to KL?

[Fearsome Fred]

Isn't it obvious why that would create tension with Dorne?

No.

They sent her a prince and she's sending them back a corpse.

That does not explain why they would blame Dany.

As far as we know, she's still alive.

We don't know very far.

Doran tells Arianne as much in Feast and there's no reason for him to lie to her.

There is EVERY reason for him to lie to her. Myrcella's death means war, Arianne wants war, and all Arianne has to do is spill the beans.

I see no reason to make things more complicated than they actually are.

This theory makes things simpler. We no longer have to wait for the fulfillment of the golden crown/golden shroud prophesy, because it has already occurred.

Not that it makes any sense anyway: you don't think Cersei wouldn't notice that she's not her daughter when she gets back to KL?

He has no intention of ever letting her reach King's Landing.

First, he will try to delay it by convincing Ser Balon to first go on a mission to punish Darkstar.

Then, as Ser Balon journeys north with Myrcella, they will be attacked by bantits yelling "Halfman, Halfman!" Myrcella will killed, kidnapped or "disappear".

But it is all just delaying tactics. War is inevitable, and he is desperately scrambling for allies from abroad.