The "Dragon Rider" [aDwD Spoilers]

[Ladywhiskers]

I think I want to add one more point

5) GRRM can't resurrect everybody he presents as dead towards the end of ADWD. I think in terms of likelihood to come back I'll go with Jon, then Stannis, Quentyn and then Kevan and Pycelle (the last being basically <1%). I think it would be overdramatic if 3 of those came back or were revealed as fake-outs, so this makes it more likely Q is dead for good.

Also, is anybody else seeing the possibility that Dany is out of the Meereenese knot already by the end of ADWD? She seemingly flies off a long way with Drogon (her riders didn't find her yet, the stream is much smaller than the one next to or through Meereen), and she chances into a Khalasaar (one of the Drogo bloodriders??). It was prophesied that her son would unite the khalasaars into one and mount the world, including westeros. She thought that the son would be Raego, but it might well be Drogon. Could she finally let go of the Slavers bay, embrace the chance at hand and remember the original plan of leading the dothraaki across the narrow sea? I know it's not strong as a theory yet, just wanted to know if people have been thinking about this...

I know I have been thinking this a lot.

I also think it's interesting that GRRM has laid out a storyline where Myrcella is injured, but alive, and Quentyn is dead, and now there's a theory that it's exactly the reverse. I do think Cersei would notice if Myrcella were replaced by an imposter. Until someone says Myrcella's dead, or we see a body, I'm going to follow the general rule we all follow with this series, and assume she's probably still alive.

[Fearsome Fred]

I do think Cersei would notice if Myrcella were replaced by an imposter.

Sure. This is exactly why Doran is plainning to do everything in his power to delay or prevent Myrcella from reaching King's Landing. First the Darkstar mission, then the attack of the Halfman's bandits.

Ser Balon might see through the impostiture as well, which is why Doran is doing everything in his power to delay Ser Balon from meeting Myrcella. War is inevitable and he is stalling for time.

[Ladywhiskers]

It seems pretty obvious to me that if failure to protect Myrcella from an attack opens Dorn up to a declaration of war from Cersei, (and I suspect it will,) then failure to protect Quentyn from her dragons would open Dany up to the same sort of attack from Dorn. That she's unaware of Quentyn's demise is irrelevant and can't be proved anyway. It's sort of like those hostage situations all through the series. Had Theon Greyjoy fallen off a horse or been thrown from a tower, Balon would have attacked without hesitation, and no one would have found fault with him doing so.

Of course Cersei would notice if Myrcella were replaced with an imposter. Are they really sending her home? That doesn't seem like a very wise thing to do on either side.

[kephv]

No.

That does not explain why they would blame Dany.

It does. Dany spurned him, married someone else, and then Quentyn got fried trying to steal one of her dragons and gain her favor. It doesn't matter if Dany didn't kill him herself; she's going to be held accountable for it, however.

We don't know very far.

There is EVERY reason for him to lie to her. Myrcella's death means war, Arianne wants war, and all Arianne has to do is spill the beans.

Arianne isn't going be starting any wars while locked in a tower. This was after Doran decided to tell her his plans and there'd be no reason to lie to her about that.

This theory makes things simpler. We no longer have to wait for the fulfillment of the golden crown/golden shroud prophesy, because it has already occurred.

Well that part, yes, but it doesn't make sense why Doran would deceive his own daughter and set up this elaborate ruse, all of which will fall apart with one word from the girl or Swann noticing she's not the real deal.

He has no intention of ever letting her reach King's Landing.

First, he will try to delay it by convincing Ser Balon to first go on a mission to punish Darkstar.

Then, as Ser Balon journeys north with Myrcella, they will be attacked by bantits yelling "Halfman, Halfman!" Myrcella will killed, kidnapped or "disappear".

But it is all just delaying tactics. War is inevitable, and he is desperately scrambling for allies from abroad.

Cersei set up the whole Halfman sceme and will definitely know something's up when they kill her daughter instead. Besides, Doran wants the sand snakes on the inside at KL, and that will be difficult to do after getting on Cersei's bad side (it would mean war for sure).

[Nev yn]

Ser Balon might see through the impostiture as well, which is why Doran is doing everything in his power to delay Ser Balon from meeting Myrcella.

This is just painful. Doran explicitly states in Hotah's chapter (the Watcher) that the next day, they are going with Swann to meet Myrcella at the Water Gardens, where she will be the one to tell him about the evil Darkstar and entreat Swann to hunt him down. Without Myrcella to put Ser Balon to his duty, he would have no reason to believe Doran's story. While he's on his hunt, Myrcella will be returning to King's Landing with Nymeria.

[iamthedave]

I was explaining that story efficiency favors my theory, and that I cannot see that yours offers similar benefits. In this context, I mentioned that your theory does not (for instance) get Dany to Westeros faster.

Could you explain the story that you are even referring to?

'Story efficiency' is a fairly self-explanatory term. The telling of a story as efficiently as possible. You seem to have it stuck in your head that the only purpose of the story is getting Dany to Westeros as quickly as possible. Is there anything - even the slightest hint - in a book called A Dance with Dragons that Martin is in a hurry to accomplish this?

If your theory appeals to 'story efficiency' it's that of a story nobody has written. It's got nothing to do with ASOIF, in which the only hints we have concerning Dany's next movements are her final chapter, where it seems she will go to Westeros when she can, hints from Quaithe, which indicate she will go east before going west, and the chapter with the Vogarro's Whore which would appear to suggest Dany will go on further slave-freeing escapades unless Martin's intent is to let the slave-freeing plotline drop off into nowhere.

This at best creates a contradictory and uncertain picture of Dany's path in AWOW, and eliminates any possible argument of 'story efficiency' you can make, because Martin is very clearly not writing the story you're asking him to, one in which Dany gets to Westeros as quickly as possible with all of her dragons bearing riders.

A further issue: you think that having one of the world's only three dragons tamed off-screen (as it were) is a good technique? The dragon ex machina? The de facto most powerful magical creatures in the entire world which may well result in its salvation? And you think they should be tamed off-the-page?

I don't see the logic or the sense behind this from the perspective of telling a story anybody wants to actually read.

Here's something that would be story efficient: Rocks fell, The Others died.

[Fearsome Fred]

It does. Dany spurned him, married someone else, and then Quentyn got fried trying to steal one of her dragons and gain her favor. It doesn't matter if Dany didn't kill him herself; she's going to be held accountable for it, however.

Why? As a war cry, "You bitch, you refused to instantly marry my son when he showed up unannounced on the eve of your wedding while your city was under siege," lacks the punch and power of "You murdered my daughter while she was under your protection and care."

Arianne isn't going be starting any wars while locked in a tower.

Doran is about to release her. Before that, he told her nothing at all. He was too busy making plans and schemes and sending all the witnesses to the event into remote exile.

This was after Doran decided to tell her his plans and there'd be no reason to lie to her about that.

He releases her after telling her (some) of his plans.

Well that part, yes, but it doesn't make sense why Doran would deceive his own daughter and set up this elaborate ruse, [...]

It makes perfect sense. Top secret information is released on a need-to-know basis. And he has a history of treating her this way, for reasons which he explains to her at length.

[...] all of which will fall apart with one word from the girl or Swann noticing she's not the real deal.

Which is why he delays the meeting as long as possible.

Cersei set up the whole Halfman sceme [...]

No. Why would she? Doran is the one with advance knowledge of the attack, because he is the one who plans for it to happen. But yes, he does plan to ultimately hurl accusations at Cersei.

... and will definitely know something's up when they kill her daughter instead.

If her daughter dies, accusations will fly. Doran is already planning his accusations against Cersei. In the meantime, he is trying to put off the inevitable war for as long as possible.

Besides, Doran wants the sand snakes on the inside at KL [...]

Either that, or he wants his sand-snakes on the inside when the Halfman bandits attack.

[Fearsome Fred]

This is just painful. Doran explicitly states in Hotah's chapter (the Watcher) that the next day, they are going with Swann to meet Myrcella at the Water Gardens, where she will be the one to tell him about the evil Darkstar and entreat Swann to hunt him down.

The plan is for "Myrcella" to tell Swann a pack of lies. That the real Myrcella was attacked by Darkstar is the only true part of it.

Without Myrcella to put Ser Balon to his duty, he would have no reason to believe Doran's story.

Right. And meanwhile, it is of critical importance that Ser Balon not consider the possibility that the lowborn can resemble the highborn:

"I told the story to Ser Balon, but not all of it. As the children splashed in the pools, Daenerys watched from amongst the orange trees, and a realization came to her. She could not tell the highborn from the low. Naked, they were only children...."

[Fearsome Fred]

Of course Cersei would notice if Myrcella were replaced with an imposter. Are they really sending her home?

No. Doran has no intention of sending her home, but is trying not to make this too obvious.

That doesn't seem like a very wise thing to do on either side.

It's wise on Cersei's part. But too late. Myrcella is already dead.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

It's wise on Cersei's part. But too late. Myrcella is already dead.

I feel like an idiot for giving this the time of day, but ... based on what? What proof do you have of this?

Balon Swann — who was with the royal family for much of Clash of Kings and went to see Myrcella off when she left — sees her and speaks with her in Dance. You don't think that he would know immediately that it was an impostor, with or without a facial injury? She lost an ear and has a scar, but that wouldn't be enough to disfigure her beyond recognition, and certainly not with someone who has been around her and knows her.

The story of the Water Gardens is that when you strip highborn and lowborn people of their trappings or lack thereof, they're all the same. The rich and poor are, when you get down to it, equal. That's the "morale" of the Water Gardens and it baffles me that people keep trying to use them to justify some switcheroo or another when that clearly wasn't the gist of their meaning.

[Fearsome Fred]

but ... based on what? What proof do you have of this?

No proof. It's a theory. Based on the (1) prophesy of the crown & shroud; (2) the fact that we don't see Myrcella since her injury; (3) Doran's procrastination, (4) Doran's belief that War is inevitable (5) Doran's hint to obara that I mentioned.

Balon Swann — who was with the royal family for much of Clash of Kings and went to see Myrcella off when she left — sees her and speaks with her in Dance.

No. Not yet.

You don't think that he would know immediately that it was an impostor, with or without a facial injury?

We'll find out when he sees her.

She lost an ear and has a scar, but that wouldn't be enough to disfigure her beyond recognition, and certainly not with someone who has been around her and knows her.

We don't know the extent of her disfigurement.

The story of the Water Gardens is that when you strip highborn and lowborn people of their trappings or lack thereof, they're all the same. The rich and poor are, when you get down to it, equal. That's the "morale" of the Water Gardens and it baffles me that people keep trying to use them to justify some switcheroo or another when that clearly wasn't the gist of their meaning.

That's the general moral of the tale. It does not explain why Doran mentions it to Obara as a hint of his veiled plans, and why he makes a point of saying he did NOT mention this part to Balon.

He tells her he cannot speak openly, and then proceeds to give her a hint. That's the context of the discussion.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

No. Not yet.

Uh, yeah? In the epilogue, Kevan notes that Balon wrote the court saying that Myrcella personally asked him to go hunt down Gerold Dayne, and that's what he's currently doing. He says nothing about suspecting a fraud and there's nothing to suggest that he saw anyone but the real Myrcella, who's under Arianne's direction but not an impostor. Like I said before, given Balon's proximity to her before and familiarity with her, he's not one who would be easily fooled with a fake.

We'll find out when he sees her.

He has seen her. Reread the epilogue.

We don't know the extent of her disfigurement.

Yes we do. She lost an ear and has a facial scar. This is said multiple times.

[Fearsome Fred]

Uh, yeah? In the epilogue, Kevan notes that Balon wrote the court saying that Myrcella personally asked him to go hunt down Gerold Dayne, and that's what he's currently doing.

Fine. I stand corrected. I guess he bought it then.

Yes we do. She lost an ear and has a facial scar. This is said multiple times.

We don't know the extent of her disfigurement. There are scars and there are scars. There may be bandages too.

[kephv]

He releases her after telling her (some) of his plans.

He just told her his most secret plan. Why would he leave out some minor detail about a fake Myrcella?

No. Why would she? Doran is the one with advance knowledge of the attack, because he is the one who plans for it to happen. But yes, he does plan to ultimately hurl accusations at Cersei.

Because she's Cersei. And no, he didn't plan it. As Doran mentions, it was Cersei's plan to have Trystane killed, and there's evidence of this in Feast when Cersei thinks about sending Swann to Dorne to collect Myrcella and do something else.

Either that, or he wants his sand-snakes on the inside when the Halfman bandits attack.

There will be no inside for them if they were involved in a plot to kill her daughter.

[Fearsome Fred]

He just told her his most secret plan. Why would he leave out some minor detail about a fake Myrcella?

I already answered you. And your "all or nothing" logic is just not logical. Top secret information is not handled that way.

Because she's Cersei.

That's hardly a reason. Cersei is an evil woman, but she is not a demon who murders kids for kicks. Even she needs a motive for such a crime.

And no, he didn't plan it. As Doran mentions, it was Cersei's plan to have Trystane killed, [...]

So he says. While ears are listening. And while he cannot speak openly. As he keeps emphasizing.

and there's evidence of this in Feast when Cersei thinks about sending Swann to Dorne to collect Myrcella and do something else.

Like what? Deliver Gregor's head? Quote please!

[kephv]

I already answered you. And your "all or nothing" logic is just not logical. Top secret information is not handled that way.

What he told was top secret--his deepest secrets. Why would he then leave out that small bit of info?

That's hardly a reason. Cersei is an evil woman, but she is not a demon who murders kids for kicks. Even she needs a motive for such a crime.

Right. The motive was the one Doran said: it pins the blame on Tyrion and frees Myrcella, and hence the Lannisters, from the Dornish.

Like what? Deliver Gregor's head? Quote please!

I don't have the exact quote, but it's after she explains to the council that she's sending Swann to Dorne and she thinks "he will have another task as well but that's best left unsaid," which is obviously a hint towards what Doran said.

[tze]

Like what? Deliver Gregor's head? Quote please!

Cersei, in AFFC:

“His long wait is almost done. I am sending Balon Swann to Sunspear, to deliver him the head of Gregor Clegane.” Ser Balon would have another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid.

[Fearsome Fred]

Cersei, in AFFC:

“His long wait is almost done. I am sending Balon Swann to Sunspear, to deliver him the head of Gregor Clegane.” Ser Balon would have another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid.

Thanks for the quote. The other task is presumably the retrieval of Myrcella.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Thanks for the quote. The other task is presumably the retrieval of Myrcella.

If that's the case, why is that a big secret that Cersei can't reveal or doesn't want to reveal? It makes more sense, as much as I don't like the idea of Balon going along with it, that the "other task" involves assassinating Trystane and pinning it on Tyrion. She mentions this "other task" without specifying, and then Doran says he has information that they're planning to murder his son en route to the capital. Doesn't take much to put the two together.

[Fearsome Fred]

If that's the case, why is that a big secret that Cersei can't reveal or doesn't want to reveal?

Because travel is dangerous, royal people are big targets, and ambush / kidnapping / assassination are real possibilities.

It makes more sense, as much as I don't like the idea of Balon going along with it, that the "other task" involves assassinating Trystane and pinning it on Tyrion. She mentions this "other task" without specifying, and then Doran says he has information that they're planning to murder his son en route to the capital. Doesn't take much to put the two together.

Except that she doesn't mention a third task. Only two tasks. So it does not fit.