142 replies to this topic

[Bluefyre]

Did Illyrio say where he expected Dany to die with the Dothraki? He may originally have meant for all of them to die in Westeros. By hands of Aegon, the rightful heir to the throne. And so he tells the truth, but not all of it, to Tyrion.

Now she's got the dragons the game has changed, however.

Edited by Bluefyre, 06 February 2012 - 06:35 PM.

[The Sunset King]

Could it have been that Illyrio said that he expected Daenerys to die with the Dothraki because he thought the whole idea to be a long shot, yet worthwhile, plan with few drawbacks?  If Dany and perhaps Viserys die then they are simply out of Aegon's way and the khalasar idea goes nowhere.  However, if Drogo is successfully convinced to invade Westeros on behalf of Viserys, Daenerys, or even eventually a son (Rhaego) then Varys/Illyrio/Aegon could arrange for transportation to ship the Dothraki horde to Westeros.  At that point, they would wait until both the khalasar and the Iron Throne's forces were intensely diminished from attrition and then send in Aegon with the Golden Company and perhaps some other mecernaries to take King's Landing.  This would be easier if the remaining Dothraki warriors were stationed somewhere far west of the capital at the moment of Aegon's landing.  Aegon would then presumably mop up whatever resistance exsists, be it Westerosi or Dothraki.

Perhaps Illyrio was not as confident as Robert about the chances that the Dothraki could force Westeros to accept Viserys as a king, especially given how inept he would be as a leader.  The khalasar could, however, seriously damage the court's defenses and give Aegon an opening to take over.  Not sure if this scenario would match the timeframe that Varys and Illyrio had for Aegon, but the general gist appears to make sense from their perspectives.

Edited by The Sunset King, 06 February 2012 - 06:49 PM.

[Lady Octarina]

Bluefyre, on 06 February 2012 - 06:13 PM, said:

Maybe that is what "the good of the realm" is all about. Putting a Blackfyre on the throne with the populace thinking he is a (good) Targaryen.

Blackfyres always thought that they were more fit to be and also had more right to be on the throne, than other Targs (they see themselves as the strongest Targ line, I suspect).

So the thing might be to put a Blackfyre on the throne first, and later making it known he's not a Targ but a Blackfyre, but only after the powerbase has been secured. That's one of the more important things that Aemon Blackfyre didn't do right in the first BF rebellion. The more effective move usually is: usurp first and demonstrate the rightfulness of your claim later.

Blackfyres always had many fans in Westeros, almost as many as the Targs themselves. That was why the Targs considered them to be so dangerous and were so vehement in exterminating them. Therefore a BF on a throne is not necessarily a ticking time bomb. It's just that the populace and the lords need to be convinced he is a strong and good king.

They did kneel to Aegon when he was the dominant factor, and they followed Robert when he became the alpha male on the ape-rock.

And for something completely different: JC must indeed be the most tragic figure of them all, perhaps with the exception of Doran Martel.
But I'm not sure what you mean by the parentage of Jon Snow. Rhaegar, or JonCon himself (who is supposed to be gay...) ?Please elaborate.

Hmm... YG believes he is Aegon, Rhaegar's son, a Targaryen, right? He was probably taught his whole life to feel proud of his Targ blood, to take Targaryen side in History lessons against the Blackfyre one, etc. So I'm really interested in how he will react once he finds out he's not a Targ. He's not the great Rhaegar's son, just the child of some fat guy from Pentos, or something like that. Would they really take the risk of putting him up on the Throne as a Targ and only after telling everyone he was actually a Blackfyre? Would they tell the truth at all by their will, or will it be just one more thing that comes out unexpectedly to interfere with their plans?

[Bluefyre]

Lady Octarina, on 06 February 2012 - 07:29 PM, said:

Hmm... YG believes he is Aegon, Rhaegar's son, a Targaryen, right? He was probably taught his whole life to feel proud of his Targ blood, to take Targaryen side in History lessons against the Blackfyre one, etc. So I'm really interested in how he will react once he finds out he's not a Targ. He's not the great Rhaegar's son, just the child of some fat guy from Pentos, or something like that. Would they really take the risk of putting him up on the Throne as a Targ and only after telling everyone he was actually a Blackfyre? Would they tell the truth at all by their will, or will it be just one more thing that comes out unexpectedly to interfere with their plans?

Are we sure that YG believes that he is a Targaryen? He may also have been told that he is a Blackfyre.
Anyway, In both cases he would have been proud. Both lines have strong claims and a strong family tradition. In what I've read of the Blackfyres so far, they don't see themselves as usurpers, but as the rightful descendants of Aegon I (because of the sword and the stronger military tendencies in their line), with the more rightful claim to the throne.

It would have demanded a lot of acting on his part though, towards his tutors on the boat and especially towards Griff. So probably he has not known this for a long time and perhaps even he still is not aware of it at the time of ADWD.

So far they haven't told "everyone". IMHO the only important figures who are (and need to be) aware of the BF part of the scheme at this point are Varys, Illyrio and Harry Strickland and perhaps some of his  Golden Company officers.

[The Hill That Rides]

Bluefyre, on 06 February 2012 - 06:13 PM, said:

Maybe that is what "the good of the realm" is all about. Putting a Blackfyre on the throne with the populace thinking he is a (good) Targaryen.

Blackfyres always thought that they were more fit to be and also had more right to be on the throne, than other Targs (they see themselves as the strongest Targ line, I suspect).

So the thing might be to put a Blackfyre on the throne first, and later making it known he's not a Targ but a Blackfyre, but only after the powerbase has been secured. That's one of the more important things that Aemon Blackfyre didn't do right in the first BF rebellion. The more effective move usually is: usurp first and demonstrate the rightfulness of your claim later.

Blackfyres always had many fans in Westeros, almost as many as the Targs themselves. That was why the Targs considered them to be so dangerous and were so vehement in exterminating them. Therefore a BF on a throne is not necessarily a ticking time bomb. It's just that the populace and the lords need to be convinced he is a strong and good king.

They did kneel to Aegon when he was the dominant factor, and they followed Robert when he became the alpha male on the ape-rock.

And for something completely different: JC must indeed be the most tragic figure of them all, perhaps with the exception of Doran Martel.
But I'm not sure what you mean by the parentage of Jon Snow. Rhaegar, or JonCon himself (who is supposed to be gay...) ?Please elaborate.

I don't disagree with your statements or securing the power base, I think it would be stellar if Aegon pulled out The Sword once he sat the throne as the proof of his heritage.  Being a Blackfyre would need to come out at some point, or what is the point.

To answer your question.. If R+L=J then I am in the camp that JS is named after JC, as another way to prove heredity.  There has been a Duncan Targaryen, out of honor, why not a Jon.  Then the proof doesn’t solely rest on the Reeds or Bran to prove Jon's parentage. Then again if I am some lord i would not believe JC, he was exiled, and now he comes as a conqueror with the Mummers Dragon(Which doesn’t mean Aegon is false, in the book it’s more of a possessive statement, though i believe he is false especially after this thread), to jump on JS bandwagon,not that there is one) he would have to change allegiance once again, not to mention being taken with grey scale.  Talk about a Cassandra Complex,  I feel bad for JC.

[Aegon VI Blackfyre]

The Sunset King, on 06 February 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:

Could it have been that Illyrio said that he expected Daenerys to die with the Dothraki because he thought the whole idea to be a long shot, yet worthwhile, plan with few drawbacks?  If Dany and perhaps Viserys die then they are simply out of Aegon's way and the khalasar idea goes nowhere.  However, if Drogo is successfully convinced to invade Westeros on behalf of Viserys, Daenerys, or even eventually a son (Rhaego) then Varys/Illyrio/Aegon could arrange for transportation to ship the Dothraki horde to Westeros.  At that point, they would wait until both the khalasar and the Iron Throne's forces were intensely diminished from attrition and then send in Aegon with the Golden Company and perhaps some other mecernaries to take King's Landing.  This would be easier if the remaining Dothraki warriors were stationed somewhere far west of the capital at the moment of Aegon's landing.  Aegon would then presumably mop up whatever resistance exsists, be it Westerosi or Dothraki.

I think this is exactly what Illyrio and Varys were planning when they sent Viserys and Daenerys to the Dothraki. One interesting incident is the wineseller assassination attempt. We know a few things about it:

-If Dany drinks the wine she is as good as dead.
-Jorah somehow sniffs out the attempt.
-When Khal Drogo finds out his wife and unborn child were almost killed he is finally convinced that he needs to invade Westeros.

The fact that Jorah knows about (or figures out) the attempt implies that it comes from Varys and Illyrio. If they were Targ loyalists then it would be extremely risky to set up an assassination attempt and then arrange for Jorah to intervene. Too much could go wrong. Therefore, it is likely that they wanted the attempt to succeed. That would have meant that Dany was out of the way, but I also believe that it would have spurred Khal Drogo into action. The poison was so aggressive that he would have assumed it was poison and acted accordingly, likely invading Westeros, but without a Targaryen to put on the throne. He could not have claimed and kept kingship for himself, even if he wanted too.

This would off course require that Varys and Illyrio knew a lot about how much Khal Drogo had come to appreciate Dany, but we know that they had a spy in perfect position to tell them. Jorah would have been able to provide that information, but unfortunately it also meant that he knew too much about their plans, which became a problem when he fell in love with Dany.

Interestingly, he fell from grace when Varys and Illyrio sent another Westerosi knight to Dany who knew about Jorahs role as spy.

I'm not saying that the assassination scheme was their master plan from the start, but I definitely think it makes sense that they adapted their plans to include it.

[Bluefyre]

Aegon VI Blackfyre, on 07 February 2012 - 10:00 AM, said:

I think this is exactly what Illyrio and Varys were planning when they sent Viserys and Daenerys to the Dothraki. One interesting incident is the wineseller assassination attempt. We know a few things about it:

-If Dany drinks the wine she is as good as dead.
-Jorah somehow sniffs out the attempt.
-When Khal Drogo finds out his wife and unborn child were almost killed he is finally convinced that he needs to invade Westeros.

The fact that Jorah knows about (or figures out) the attempt implies that it comes from Varys and Illyrio. If they were Targ loyalists then it would be extremely risky to set up an assassination attempt and then arrange for Jorah to intervene. Too much could go wrong. Therefore, it is likely that they wanted the attempt to succeed. That would have meant that Dany was out of the way, but I also believe that it would have spurred Khal Drogo into action. The poison was so aggressive that he would have assumed it was poison and acted accordingly, likely invading Westeros, but without a Targaryen to put on the throne. He could not have claimed and kept kingship for himself, even if he wanted too.

This would off course require that Varys and Illyrio knew a lot about how much Khal Drogo had come to appreciate Dany, but we know that they had a spy in perfect position to tell them. Jorah would have been able to provide that information, but unfortunately it also meant that he knew too much about their plans, which became a problem when he fell in love with Dany.

Interestingly, he fell from grace when Varys and Illyrio sent another Westerosi knight to Dany who knew about Jorahs role as spy.

I'm not saying that the assassination scheme was their master plan from the start, but I definitely think it makes sense that they adapted their plans to include it.

You may be on to something here.

The storyline so far has provided many more examples of them being able to adapt their plans according to things happening - or not happening. In contrast to other schemers who never have been seen to come up with a plan B (C, D and so on) or adaptations to their original plans.

The plan for procuring a Dothraki Khalasar may have always been considered to be somewhat of a long shot, but I still believe it was a plan that they had very early on, as per the conversation Arya overheard (down in the room with the dragon skulls) rather early on in AGOT.
And I'm still not quite convinced either that they intendend for Dany to die at that point; as I mentioned before they would have had much more leverage on the Dothraki with at least one Targaryen still around.

On the other hand, there is definitely a strong suggestion it was them who attempted the assassination plots. And you may have a point that they may not have taken the risk that preventing the assassination attempt (by Jorah for instance) was thwarted and therefore that the assassination would succeed - against their intentions.

But then again I keep wondering: Why an assassination at that point in time? Why not much earlier on, if they wanted to have them killed?
As for an explanation for who was responsible for the attempts, if not Varys and Illyrio themselves - Robert Barattheon? Robert's assassins would obviously have been hired by Varys. If Varys did not want Dany dead, he probably would have hired some incompetent would-be assassins (not Faceless Men, naturally). Or  stooges who didn't know that they were supposed to kill Dany, and could be trusted to make a mess of it. If I recall correctly from my memory, one of the assassins (the one with the manticore-box) was scared and surprised himself too. And obviously, Varys would have given a heads-up to Jorah beforehand as well. Jorah seemed to be on the know at least one and maybe even both times.

I keep thinking that all their plans with Dany and Viserys may have been long shots (the Dothraki, the dragon's eggs) anyway, but that they didn't have any real reason to kill them off themselves. Perhaps quite the opposite: they were sending both of them out merely to test them and to try and find some extra instruments of military power (for their main man, Aegon). They may have wanted to find out which one of the 2 remaining Targaryens would prove to be a worthy companion for Aegon. And since they would have known that Viserys would not amount to much in any scheme, they probably put their money on Dany early on. If she would be able to come out of it alive, and if she would even do so in some position of power, an alliance between Dany and Aegon would have been their next step.

This fits with both the timing of their conversation on the Dothraki invasion, their rather equivocal approach to Viserys' claim all the way through, and the subsequent adapations of their plans (in so far as we cook them up here on the board, it still all remains to be proven) when Dany showed herself to be a more apt player than they had calculated.

To me this looks like the background behind Illyrio's statement to Tyrion (that they expected Dany to die with the Dothraki). They had some expectations for her to die at some point, because the dangers were great and her resilience toward those dangers initially seemed very doubtful. But I still don't buy that they were planning for her to die. Too many unexplained cons for that, in my opinion.

[Aegon VI Blackfyre]

Bluefyre, on 07 February 2012 - 12:23 PM, said:

But then again I keep wondering: Why an assassination at that point in time? Why not much earlier on, if they wanted to have them killed?

Because this was the earliest point where Khal Drogo would have bestirred himself over her death. Until she won his affection and became pregnant she was just a trophy wife. During aGoT she clearly becomes precious to him to the point where he would go to war for her (and for his unborn son).

Regarding the assassination attempts, I think it is very important to differentiate between the wineseller and the sorrowful man. The wineseller is prevented by Jorah because he knows of it or at least guesses it. This tells us that it likely came from Varys and Illyrio. The sorrowful man is prevented by Barristan, and Jorah doesn't seem to know anything about it. I think it's highly unlikely that Varys and Illyrio would have tipped off Barristan in any way, so I think he prevents the attempt solely because of his skills and background as a knight of the kingsguard. Thus we have no indication of who sent this assassin. It could have been Varys and Illyrio but it could just as easily have been Xaro Xhoan Daxos or the surviving warlocks, especially since the sorrowful men hail from Qarth.

[Apple Martini]

Aegon VI Blackfyre, on 07 February 2012 - 10:00 AM, said:

<snip>

Good points about the assassination attempt. It's likely that Varys knew or thought that Jorah would be able to tell something was wrong, but that wasn't a guarantee by any means. If Jorah hadn't been accompanying her that day or had been five minutes late, she would've been killed. Perhaps Varys thought that either way, the Dothraki could be persuaded to invade: Either to avenge the assassination attempt, or to avenge the assassination.

[HyacinthGirl]

WHAT a find. Hats off to you, ser.

[stasis]

This also ties in to the House of the Undying prophecy about the "cloth dragon."

Quote

"A cloth dragon swayed on poles amid a cheering crowd."

As noted in one of the articles on this site (I can't find the exact book source):

Quote

As Dany later states, this is a mummer's dragon, a cloth dragon used by mummers in their performances.

http://www.westeros....cies/Entry/1813

Further, this prophecy is one of the "slayer of lies" prophecies (the other two being prophecies representing Stannis and the "stone beaast breathing shadow fire").

So, we have a phophecy of a cloth dragon mounted on poles (plural) used in a mummer's show amist a cheering crowd being a "lie" that Dany must "slay."  Since there is more than one pole, it's logical to assume that each pole is supporting a piece of the cloth mummer's dragon.

I picture something like this: http://i.imgur.com/aBcJF.jpg

Compare this language to this new find in the OP:

Quote

"...He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon."

A wooden post is another way of describing a wooden pole.  The imagery here is very similar also. We have a dragon that is split up into a dozen pieces joined with rope and wire.  Moreover, from the language, it's clear that its losely connected because it "clank[s] and clatter[s]."  So picture in your mind what that would look like.  To me, that sounds very puppet like and very much like the cloth mummer's dragon described above.  It's a dragon mounted on a wooden pole/post that is made up of several different pieces.

So from the House of the Undying, we learn that one of the lies Dany will slay relates to a cloth mummer's dragon mounted on wooden poles.  This story lets us know that the "lie" relates to a Blackfyre (for the reasons described earlier in this thread) and hints that it will relate to a person from Essos.  Sounds to me like we can expect a confrontation between Aegon and Dany with her exposing him somehow.

This idea of Varys using a fake really fits in with his character too.  He's an actor, and the "cloth dragon" is something associated with mummers and actors.  He's a master of disguise.  Also, this is probably a stretch, but even the name Griff sounds to me a lot like "grift" which means "to acquire money or property illicitly."

[stasis]

Using two prophecies being tied together by a common symbol (in this case a puppet-like dragon made up of several parts) is something Martin has done in a couple of other cases as well.

For example, in the R+L=J prophecies/stories, the common symbol has been a blue rose.  Lyanna is associted with a blue rose in Book I, and later on, a blue rose with the "Bael the Bard" story (http://awoiaf.wester.../index.php/Bael) is used to associate a blue rose with a guy taking a woman and getting her pregnant.  By using the common symbol to connect the stories, we can deduce that the story describes what happened to Lyanna.

In the case of the blue rose/Lyanna, the blue rose symbolizes feminity, love, and the North (because the rose is a blue winter rose).
In the case of Aegon, the puppet dragon symbolizes Targs/Blackfyres and deception- because a "man behind the scenes" is pulling the strings/rope or holding the poles.

Edited by stasis, 07 February 2012 - 08:50 PM.

[Archmaester Marwin]

Hmmm...

Illyrio surely knew that Viserys was prone to explosive fits of rage, and was jealous and posessive of his sister.

Yet, he gives Viserys a sword and lets him go to Vaes Dothrak, where swords are not allowed? Also, he knows that Dothraki care little and less about birth and care only about strength. I am starting to think Viserys was not meant to return, one way or another.

Also.. With respect to the theory bout Ser Barristan being able to identify Aegon Blackfyre as not being Aegon Targaryen and being sent away from him for this, I seem to remember someone describing the smashed baby corpse Aegon as having blonde hair, but I can't remember who. Ser Barristan was not there, he was wounded. It is possible no one was there who actually knew Aegon Targaryen while he was alive, and that he had black hair. We know from The Hedge Knight that Baelor Breakspear had black hair, favouring his Dornish mother. I thought this was fuel for the R+L=J thing, but it would work just as well if Aegon Targaryen had black hair. He actually did have a Dornish mother, and this would make more sense than simply being worried Ser Barristan might recognize differences in facial features between a baby and a grown teen.

This theory is awesome.

[Fire Eater]

Archmaester Marwin, on 11 March 2012 - 10:01 PM, said:

Hmmm...

Illyrio surely knew that Viserys was prone to explosive fits of rage, and was jealous and posessive of his sister.

Yet, he gives Viserys a sword and lets him go to Vaes Dothrak, where swords are not allowed? Also, he knows that Dothraki care little and less about birth and care only about strength. I am starting to think Viserys was not meant to return, one way or another.

Also.. With respect to the theory bout Ser Barristan being able to identify Aegon Blackfyre as not being Aegon Targaryen and being sent away from him for this, I seem to remember someone describing the smashed baby corpse Aegon as having blonde hair, but I can't remember who. Ser Barristan was not there, he was wounded. It is possible no one was there who actually knew Aegon Targaryen while he was alive, and that he had black hair. We know from The Hedge Knight that Baelor Breakspear had black hair, favouring his Dornish mother. I thought this was fuel for the R+L=J thing, but it would work just as well if Aegon Targaryen had black hair. He actually did have a Dornish mother, and this would make more sense than simply being worried Ser Barristan might recognize differences in facial features between a baby and a grown teen.

This theory is awesome.

Aegon had the Targ look according to GRRM

Edited by Fire Eater, 12 March 2012 - 05:08 PM.

[unBloodraven]

Just saw this thread that's a great catch @Cannot Remember. I wonder if GRRM will factor this into TWoW or if it's one of his hidden easter eggs.

[lmanion]

So if Aegon is Aegon Blackfyre as these clues would seem to suggest, is there a possibility that Varys and Illyrio have been angling at getting either Aegon or Daenerys onto the Iron throne and then having the other mary them to bring the 2 Targ lines back together, seeing as Daemon Blackfyre was a bastard with 2 targ parents if I remember right from the D&E stories. This might explain Varys saying that he 'serves the realm, someone must' - although in this case the realm is the Targaryen empire. Just a random possibly crackpot thought.

[The Dark Viper]

What a find! either thats completely random or martins a genius.....

martins a genius.

[OberynBlackfyre]

First off, LONG LIVE HOUSE BLACKFYRE!!!


Ok, I think that Aegon and Dany are both of the same importance to the plans that Varys and Illryio had put in motion. After seeing that Viserys was a madman, they knew he could never sit the throne. Especially since they had a dragon that they had been grooming since birth to be a good ruler. Dany, being the actual Targ was sent to divert any suspicion of Blackfyre or Targ heirs that may have been in training while she amassed an army of Dothraki. When the Dragons were hatched, things completely changed because she decided to make decisions on her own. This turned out to be good for Aegon as they were able to finish grooming him, and take care of plans covertly. The fact that the Golden Company would even agree to this proves that he is a Blackfyre in my opinion, however it's genius because now that they are there fighting the war, Dany will no longer EVER have to worry about a Blackfyre uprising as she views Aegon not only as a Targ but as an ally. Varys serves the realm by ensuring no Blackfyre rebellions and eliminates all opposition that could be put against them. Dany comes in with the dragons, unsullied, Iron Men possibly, and Dothraki, boom sweeps away the realm AND the Golden Company if they try to take the throne only for Blackfyre. Though I think it's only fitting that a Blackfyre be one of the heads of the dragon

[Aerys Blackfyre]

interesting!

[Lightstar]

Awesome find, whoever got this.