240 replies to this topic

[brashcandy]

Just wanted to add in some more quotes which support my earlier contention that if Quentyn had read the book in the tower, we should have seen him referencing that info to Dany, and during her conversation with him in the pits, he's actually given a big opening to say what he knows of dragons. But first an indication that Dany does long for more knowledge on the dragons and would have appreciated this book:

Quote

The dragons craned their necks around, gazing at them with burning eyes. Viserion had shattered one chain and melted the others. He clung to the roof of the pit like some huge white bat, his claws dug deep into the burnt and crumbling bricks. Rhaegal still chained, was gnawing on the carcass of a bull. The bones on the floor of the pit were deeper than the last time she had been down here, and the walls and floors were black and grey, more ash than brick. They would not hold much longer ... but behind them was earth and stone. Can dragons tunnel through rock, like the firewyrms of old Valyria? She hoped not.

Septon Barth's book is called Dragons, Wyrms and Wyverns, Their Unnatural History...

Anyways here is the conversation that I consider would have been the perfect opening for Quent to flaunt his knowledge and impress Dany (and he also could have done it earlier, by warning her that dragons could tunnel through rock if he had this info which is almost certainly contained in Barth's book).

Quote

... Rhaegal roared in answer, and fire filled the pit, a spear of red and yellow. Viserion replied, his own flames, gold and orange. When he flapped his wings, a cloud of grey ash filled the air. Broken chains clanked and clattered about his legs. Quentyn Martell jumped back a foot.

A crueler woman might have laughed at him, but Dany squeezed hand and said, "They frighten me as well. There is no shame in that. My children have grown wild and angry in the dark."

"You... you mean to ride them?"

"One of them. All I know of dragons is what my brother told me when I was a girl, and some I read in books, but it is said that even Aegon the Conqueror never dared mount Vhagar or Meraxes, nor did his sisters ride the Balerion the Black Dread. Dragons live longer than men, some for hundreds of year, so Balerion had other riders after Aegon died ... but no rider ever flew two dragons."

Viserion hissed again. Smoke rose between his teeth, and deep down in his throat they could see gold fire churning.

"They are... they are fearsome creatures."

Now, wouldn't this have been the ideal time for Quentyn to disclose whatever dragon knowledge he had, if indeed he was making a study of them in preparation for the trip or if Doran had provided him with substantive books over the years? Dany has made clear that she doesn't know much about dragons, and is the one to tell him of how no rider can possess two dragons at once, but all Quentyn can find to say in reply to all this is that they're "fearsome creatures". A banal and unimaginative response that does not impress Dany in the least:

Quote

They are dragons Quentyn." Dany stood on her toes and kissed him lightly, once on each cheek. "And so am I."

After this Quentyn only manages to cite his obscure Targ ancestry, and talk about the first Daenerys and the water gardens. He is well schooled in Dornish history, but not in anything relevant relating to dragons. And just to sum up my points on how much Dany was anxious for knowledge - both of Dorne and the dragons, and would have welcomed hearing what Quent knew, this is how their time in the pits ends:

Quote

"Ser Barristan will have summoned a pair of sedan chairs to carry us back up to the banquet, but the climb can still be wearisome." Behind them, the great iron doors shut with a resounding clang. "Tell me of this other Daenerys. I know less than I should of the history of my father's kingdom. I never had a maester growing up." Only a brother.

"It would be my pleasure, Your Grace," said Quentyn.  

Edited by brashcandy, 18 February 2012 - 02:02 PM.

[Independent George]

How different would things have turned out if he'd sent Oberyn east to meet Dany, and one of the Sand Snakes west to take up a spot on the small council? Bringing Danaerys back seems to be the single most important part of his plans; his agent in Kings Landing is there primarily to gather intelligence, and maybe delay/obfuscate any actions by the Lannisters. The problem for Doran has always been that Oberyn is the only person he can trust, and is the single most competent person of all his retainers; he can't be everywhere at once. It just makes more sense to me to send him east to secure the most critical part of the mission, and leave the more passive mission to someone both loyal and expendible. As with Ellaria Sand, sending a lowborn woman is itself an inherent insult to the Lannisters & Tyrells, possibly either inciting them into rashness (we know how Tywin feels about lowborn women) or into overconfidence.

Meanwhile, Barristan obviously knew Llewin Martell quite well, and will have known Oberyn by reputation at the very least. Oberyn is a hardened veteran of both combat and politics (in Essos, no less), and even without an army is an incredibly valuable resource for Danaerys. The fact that he personally had a hand in her escape and exile gives him lot of influence over her.  Obviously Doran would know nothing of the events in Meereen when he dispatches him, but my feeling is that once he arrives, Oberyn is crafty enough to crush the Harpies and establish his own spy network in slaver's bay. Heck, he once fought for the Second Sons; he's already got extensive contacts with many of the players there. The point is, I think only Oberyn could succeed in the East, where any number of people could serve in King's Landing. Unfortunately, as with his fight with Gregor Clegane, he lets his desire for vengenace win out over good sense. Unfortunate for me, too, because he's one of my favorite characters.

[seeyouintee]

Denied paternity. Hey, I would have.

[Reyne]

Before I read this thread, I was half-convinced that Doran's reputation was all hype, but you have mostly convinced me.

What I'm curious now is to what sort of game he's playing. It's unlikely that he doesn't have any allies; Dorne alone can't possibly hope to take on any sizeable alliance. What springs to mind immediately is the Varys-Illyrio alliance, if we assume that they want to put Aegon aka Young Griff rather than Dany on the Iron throne for whatever reason (whether suitability, because he's a Blackfyre or Illyrio's son or whatever.) They're the main group of plotters active in Westeros both aware of Dany and working against her under false pretenses to some extent (since it appears they've always supported YG for king, over her)

The practical effects of Quentyn's death will also work in their favor. For the second (or third, counting Lewyn) time, Dorne will send out one of its 'finest' princes, only to have him return as a bag of bones. The outcry will be immense... and would likely unite the Dornish people in an alliance (possibly marital) with YG, and enrage them against Dany when she returns.

Now, the question is how much of this is coincidence and how much of this is planned to some extent.

There is an obvious flaw in this idea: If Dany had indeed went west to Volantis (as everyone expected), then both YG and Quentyn would have met her there... with poor results for the erstwhile triumvirate, so my theory is probably beyond rescuring.

Still, I find it curious that the main practical effect of sending Quentyn east is to sour Dorne against Danaerys... which will probably drive it to join 'Aegon'.

[brashcandy]

My brief thoughts on it are that Doran Martell wanted to be seen as doing something. He wanted to placate his daughter and the Sandsnakes, but it was all for appearances. I think he sabotaged Quentyn's quest, which means there was never any plan to ally with Dany, at best he was probably hoping for a dragon. Now the question is why Doran would do this, and what is is his real plan. Does he not care about Quentyn? What kind of heartless parent would send their son on a dangerous mission knowing full well that he was unprepared, underfunded and generally just inadequate for the task? Was Doran actively trying to create enmity between Dorne and Dany? Questions, questions...

Your move, Bran Vras

Edited by brashcandy, 20 February 2012 - 12:00 AM.

[Reyne]

Another thought:

A savvy negotiator should have been able to come to some agreement with the Volantenes (and others) at the start. The whole point of the Dornish mission (at face value) was to get Danaerys to come west... which fits in perfectly well with the anti-Dany coalition's design (who just don't want her in Slavers Bay emancipating slaves anymore), as Xaro tells her himself.

But of course, the group didn't have any political experts, and they didn't consider that an above-the-road approach were even possible.

[Bran Vras]

Reyne, on 19 February 2012 - 11:02 PM, said:

Before I read this thread, I was half-convinced that Doran's reputation was all hype, but you have mostly convinced me.

What I'm curious now is to what sort of game he's playing. It's unlikely that he doesn't have any allies; Dorne alone can't possibly hope to take on any sizeable alliance. What springs to mind immediately is the Varys-Illyrio alliance, if we assume that they want to put Aegon aka Young Griff rather than Dany on the Iron throne for whatever reason (whether suitability, because he's a Blackfyre or Illyrio's son or whatever.) They're the main group of plotters active in Westeros both aware of Dany and working against her under false pretenses to some extent (since it appears they've always supported YG for king, over her)

The practical effects of Quentyn's death will also work in their favor. For the second (or third, counting Lewyn) time, Dorne will send out one of its 'finest' princes, only to have him return as a bag of bones. The outcry will be immense... and would likely unite the Dornish people in an alliance (possibly marital) with YG, and enrage them against Dany when she returns.

Now, the question is how much of this is coincidence and how much of this is planned to some extent.

There is an obvious flaw in this idea: If Dany had indeed went west to Volantis (as everyone expected), then both YG and Quentyn would have met her there... with poor results for the erstwhile triumvirate, so my theory is probably beyond rescuring.

Still, I find it curious that the main practical effect of sending Quentyn east is to sour Dorne against Danaerys... which will probably drive it to join 'Aegon'.

Reyne, on 20 February 2012 - 09:05 AM, said:

Another thought:

A savvy negotiator should have been able to come to some agreement with the Volantenes (and others) at the start. The whole point of the Dornish mission (at face value) was to get Danaerys to come west... which fits in perfectly well with the anti-Dany coalition's design (who just don't want her in Slavers Bay emancipating slaves anymore), as Xaro tells her himself.

But of course, the group didn't have any political experts, and they didn't consider that an above-the-road approach were even possible.

About Doran's allies. There seems to be none in Westeros, but many in the Free Cities (Doran is married to a Norvoshi, has conspired with the Sealord of Braavos for the pact, is good friend with the Archon of Tyrosh etc. There is an extensive list upthread). It's clear that something has to be explained about Doran Martell's policy in Essos.

I can't know for sure, but it seems that Doran and Varys are not on the same side, otherwise they would have cooperated when Viserys and Dany were abandoned in Essos. I think Varys could have done something for Elia Martell.

I don't think Doran is working for a Targaryen restoration, despite the mission, despite the Braavos pact. When Viserys was reduced to begging in Essos, Doran didn't send any help (and the reach of his arm extended far in Essos). I suspect the opposite is true. The book about dragons in the tower at Sunspear kept from Dany is testimony that there is something fishy about the supposed Targaryen loyalty of House Martell.

The fact that Quentyn was clueless in Volantis is disturbing since Doran has visited Volantis in his youth, and Nymeria's mother is a highborn Volantene. The only knowledge Quentyn comes equipped with about Volantis comes from maester Kedry (generalities about the political system, the history, but nothing on which people he could contact there, no letter of recommendation from his father).

It's very hard at this point to determine what is Doran's real policy. No other land than Dorne in the Seven Kingdoms has resisted successfully the Targaryens. I don't know what made Dorne finally join the Seven Kingdoms. But I suspect the anti-dragon tradition has its roots in the destruction of the Rhoynar civilization by the Valyrians is still alive. But that's speculative.

Finally an answer to a looming question. Quentyn in Volantis:

Quote

“The demon road is dangerous, and too slow,” Quentyn said. “Tywin Lannister will send his own men after the queen once word of her reaches King’s Landing.” His father had been certain of that. “His will come with knives. If they reach her first—”

So we know Quentyn left early, when Tywin was still alive. Doran knew about Dany's presence in Meereen before everybody else, and is convinced to be the first to be informed (not even mention of the Spider). The news of dragons in Essos reached Cersei much later and, even then, there were no news of Dany.

How was Doran informed? My guess is that he has a contact in Meereen (other options are through the glass candle of Marwyn and by Jorah Mormont, but I am not sure it is reasonable). I repeat my remark about the seneschal Reznak mo Reznak being familiar with Dorne.

Edited by Bran Vras, 20 February 2012 - 11:47 AM.

[brashcandy]

Bran, what more do we know of Reznak. Do you think his advice to her could have been geared at causing her defeat in Meereen?

[Morte]

brashcandy, on 18 February 2012 - 02:00 PM, said:

Just wanted to add in some more quotes which support my earlier contention that if Quentyn had read the book in the tower, we should have seen him referencing that info to Dany, and during her conversation with him in the pits, he's actually given a big opening to say what he knows of dragons. But first an indication that Dany does long for more knowledge on the dragons and would have appreciated this book:

This is something I also wondered about: Wouldn't the book make a very impressive present for Dany (one she would truely like!), while still being small and handy enough to be transported by Quentyn and his friends?

[ARYa_Nym]

Independent George, on 19 February 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

How different would things have turned out if he'd sent Oberyn east to meet Dany, and one of the Sand Snakes west to take up a spot on the small council? Bringing Danaerys back seems to be the single most important part of his plans; his agent in Kings Landing is there primarily to gather intelligence, and maybe delay/obfuscate any actions by the Lannisters. The problem for Doran has always been that Oberyn is the only person he can trust, and is the single most competent person of all his retainers; he can't be everywhere at once. It just makes more sense to me to send him east to secure the most critical part of the mission, and leave the more passive mission to someone both loyal and expendible. As with Ellaria Sand, sending a lowborn woman is itself an inherent insult to the Lannisters & Tyrells, possibly either inciting them into rashness (we know how Tywin feels about lowborn women) or into overconfidence.

Meanwhile, Barristan obviously knew Llewin Martell quite well, and will have known Oberyn by reputation at the very least. Oberyn is a hardened veteran of both combat and politics (in Essos, no less), and even without an army is an incredibly valuable resource for Danaerys. The fact that he personally had a hand in her escape and exile gives him lot of influence over her.  Obviously Doran would know nothing of the events in Meereen when he dispatches him, but my feeling is that once he arrives, Oberyn is crafty enough to crush the Harpies and establish his own spy network in slaver's bay. Heck, he once fought for the Second Sons; he's already got extensive contacts with many of the players there. The point is, I think only Oberyn could succeed in the East, where any number of people could serve in King's Landing. Unfortunately, as with his fight with Gregor Clegane, he lets his desire for vengenace win out over good sense. Unfortunate for me, too, because he's one of my favorite characters.

I said last year that Oberyn would have been way better. If Doran had Gregor assassinated a long time ago then Oberyn wouldn't have gotten himself killed and he would have been free to go to Dany.

Now I don't think he should have been sent on a marriage mission but he at least could have been the one to get the alliance going.

Edited by ARYa_Nym, 21 February 2012 - 04:01 AM.

[Bran Vras]

brashcandy, on 20 February 2012 - 04:33 PM, said:

Bran, what more do we know of Reznak. Do you think his advice to her could have been geared at causing her defeat in Meereen?

Difficult to say. In fact Reznak might hold much of the real power in Meereen, since he is the one who selects the petitioners. (He could have decided that the Windblown wouldn't been admitted to see the Queen.) It's curious that he suddenly spoke against Dorne in the Common Language. (Imagine a Meereenese visiting King's Landing. Who could speak Ghiscari/High Valyrian at the court and say something about Slaver's Bay? Perhaps not even Varys.)

Morte, on 21 February 2012 - 03:16 AM, said:

This is something I also wondered about: Wouldn't the book make a very impressive present for Dany (one she would truely like!), while still being small and handy enough to be transported by Quentyn and his friends?

Yes, the gift suggestion has been proposed several times in the thread, even it is a large book. It would have made sense if Doran had been sincere. But I think the book is a state secret for Dorne.

Edited by Bran Vras, 21 February 2012 - 08:14 AM.

[Bran Vras]

Tyrion's chapters repetetively underline the shortcomings of Doran's preparation of Quentyn's mission. Let's recapitulate:

There is the analysis of Dany's situation which convinced Aegon that he would be refused.
There are the gifts and fine clothes that Illyrio has prepared for Aegon to meet Dany, and that Quentyn lacked.
There are the crossbows to be avoided with dragons, that caused Quentyn's demise.
Most importantly, there are the books about dragons that Illyrio has provided Aegon and co.

I found at least two more instances. The first one is minor. It's when Illyrio smuggles Tyrion out of Pentos:

Quote

“No man must see you leave the city, as no man saw you enter.”

(Compare with Quentyn seen as he left Planky Town.)

The second instance is blatant. Tyrion and Illyrio discuss the promise of Viserys to make Illyrio master of coins, and they wonder whether Dany will honour it. In hindsight, it tells us something about Dany's acceptance of the pact of marriage of Viserys and Arianne.

Quote

“Are we back to that again? You are a persistent little man.” Illyrio gave a laugh and slapped his belly. “As you will. The Beggar King swore that I should be his master of coin, and a lordly lord as well. Once he wore his golden crown, I should have my choice of castles ... even Casterly Rock, if I desired.”
Tyrion snorted wine back up the scarred stump that had been his nose. “My father would have loved to hear that.”
“Your lord father had no cause for concern. Why would I want a rock? My manse is large enough for any man, and more comfortable than your drafty Westerosi castles. Master of coin, though ...” The fat man peeled another egg. “I am fond of coins. Is there any sound as sweet as the clink of gold on gold?”
A sister’s screams. “Are you quite certain that Daenerys will make good her brother’s promises?”
“She will, or she will not.”

Note how questionable it seems that the promise will be honoured. A careful thinker like Doran has surely thought about that as well when he gave the pact to Quentyn.

Edited by Bran Vras, 21 February 2012 - 08:42 AM.

[Buried Treasure]

Bran Vras, on 21 February 2012 - 06:06 AM, said:

Tyrion's chapters repetetively underline the shortcomings of Doran's preparation of Quentyn's mission. Let's recapitulate:

There is the analysis of Dany's situation which convinced Aegon that he would be refused.
There are the gifts and fine clothes that Illyrio has prepared for Aegon to meet Dany, and that Quentyn lacked.
There are the crossbows to be avoided with dragons, that caused Quentyn's demise.
Most importantly, there are the books about dragons that Illyrio has provided Aegon and co.

I found at least two more instances. The first one is minor. It's when Illyrio smuggles Tyrion out of Pentos:

Quote

“No man must see you leave the city, as no man saw you enter.”

(Compare with Quentyn seen as he left Planky Town.)

Except, as Tyrion points out, all the people on the ship & in the manse. Ilyrio counters that his servants are loyal to him - but it would not be impossible for somebody spying on Illyrio (like a rival merchant prince for instance) to learn of Tyrions presence.

Doran minimised the risk of Quentyn being seen by sending him by Planky Town. He was spotted, but only by one of the Orphans - who reported to another member of the Martell family! The Lannisters are the enemies that Doran was really trying to conceal this information from. They got their intel through Varys and we don't know if Varys learnt of Quentyn leaving - although he is less likely to have had informers in Planky Town than in other major ports.

[Doran II]

And Doran didn't intended for Quentyn to tame dragons in the first place, he was sent to marry Dany, not steal her Dragons, he is not a Targaryen like Aegon (Blackfyres are Targaryens in both sides of the family, except they were born from the king and a member of a lesser branch of the family).

Edited by Doran II, 21 February 2012 - 09:54 AM.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

The reasons that Quentyn failed were unpredictable. Doran couldn't have predicted that his son would die. Quentyn  first failure was because Danny wanted to stay in Mereen and marry someone else to effectively rule the city (in her eyes). Even with that some sort of alliance was open so no full certain failure even if it is rather significant that she won't marry him.

After that he failed because the situation became way too unpredictable, chaotirc, and out of control. Danny lost power and was presumed dead, her husband who wanted to kill the Dragons was in charge (and that Husband King did not have a positive view of Quentyn) and Quentyn decided to steal a dragon in those circumstances. If he didn't decide to do that (it was outside his mission parameters) he considered the situation lost precisely due to the unpredictable events that happened to no fault of Quentyn. So Danny being lost and presumed dead was the problem and for that Quentyn was not responsible. That this would happen was not something that Doran could have foreseen. Nor could he had foreseen Quentyn trying to steal a dragon.

Doran also doesn't seem to me to be so heartless that he would want his own son dead, that goes against what we know about that character and his personality.

Quentyn was sort of prepared for his journey but at the end it was a more difficult to achieve his goal than it was predicted, mostly due to how difficult the situation became rather than his own faults. His mission was not to steal a dragon that was what he alone decided to do in a very difficult circumstance.

So I think the theory that Doran planned his son's death or set him up for failure on purpose is far fetched and I can't believe it.

Edited by Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren, 21 February 2012 - 10:18 AM.

[Tini]

Buried Treasure, on 21 February 2012 - 07:35 AM, said:

.Doran minimised the risk of Quentyn being seen by sending him by Planky Town. He was spotted, but only by one of the Orphans - who reported to another member of the Martell family! The Lannisters are the enemies that Doran was really trying to conceal this information from. They got their intel through Varys and we don't know if Varys learnt of Quentyn leaving - although he is less likely to have had informers in Planky Town than in other major ports.

Actually we don't know if more people spotted Quentyn. All we know is that he was spotted by one of the Orphans. Other people may have spotted him leaving as well. I'm not sure that Varys would have reported this to the Lannisters: if he was aware of Quentyn's voyage, he was no doubt aware that Quentyn travelled with an inisgnificant group of people, and did not carry any valuables like fine clothing, valuable presents, or rare ancient texts.

I don't see why Doran would have expected that books on dragons would help Quentyn accomplish his mission. Dany had successfully hatched dragons. For all Doran knew, she knew everything in his books, and more, about dragons. Quentyn didn't need to know about dragons. He sent his son to woo the Dragon Queen, not to steal her dragons. I don't see that Doran set his son up for failure but he knew that the chnaces of success were close to zero - and I think this knowledge colored his actions.

Despite the fact that Doran is considered a slow and careful planner, he's an utter failure in planning the details.

He planned a marriage between Viserys and Arianne, then failed to act for more than a decade until the plan was obsoleted by Viserys' death.
He failed to take revenge for Elia in a timely fashion, and this failure cost him his brother. Doran sent his brother to King's Landing to further his own plans without realizing that Oberyn would seize the opportunity to get justice for Elia, finally ... and he should have known his brother well enough to know that this was going to happen. Instead he complains to Arianne and the Sand Snakes that Oberyn became Tyrion's champion, even though that had not been part of Doran's plans.
It's the same with Quentyn's quest. With Oberyn dead and Dorne in uproar, he remembers the marriage pact for a dead Prince. Quentyn's chances were slim at best, but does Doran think up ways to improve his chances? No.
Instead he focuses on keeping the mission secret. That works so well that Arianne and the Sand Sankes turn against him. Which naturally leads to more complaints from Doran.

No doubt Doran will complain, too, when he hears of Quentyn's quest. And feel that he is unjustly blamed for his death.

I don't see evidence that any of Doran's grand plans ever worked, Quentyn's death is just more proof of that.

[Doran II]

Tini, on 21 February 2012 - 10:03 AM, said:

....
Despite the fact that Doran is considered a slow and careful planner, he's an utter failure in planning the details.

He planned a marriage between Viserys and Arianne, then failed to act for more than a decade until the plan was obsoleted by Viserys' death.
He failed to take revenge for Elia in a timely fashion, and this failure cost him his brother. Doran sent his brother to King's Landing to further his own plans without realizing that Oberyn would seize the opportunity to get justice for Elia, finally ... and he should have known his brother well enough to know that this was going to happen. Instead he complains to Arianne and the Sand Snakes that Oberyn became Tyrion's champion, even though that had not been part of Doran's plans.
It's the same with Quentyn's quest. With Oberyn dead and Dorne in uproar, he remembers the marriage pact for a dead Prince. Quentyn's chances were slim at best, but does Doran think up ways to improve his chances? No.
Instead he focuses on keeping the mission secret. That works so well that Arianne and the Sand Sankes turn against him. Which naturally leads to more complaints from Doran.

No doubt Doran will complain, too, when he hears of Quentyn's quest. And feel that he is unjustly blamed for his death.

I don't see evidence that any of Doran's grand plans ever worked, Quentyn's death is just more proof of that.

He didn't failed to act for more than a decade, Viserys did. It wasn't Doran's job to bring the army to westeros it was Visery's, thats how he ended up with the Dothraki negociation, Doran was to join his troops with Viserys once Viserys reached Westeros.
Oberyn's death has nothing to do with Doran, by the way, had he not lost his mind when he finally pinned Gregor to the froun he might have actually won that duel. Doran's time to take revenge on Gregor would be by the time of Viserys invasion, wich never happened, because molten golden crown.
Do you really think he could have stopped Oberyn? It's surprising enough the Oberyn himself could wait the long before doing something stupid.
Keeping the mission secret is the way to improve his chances.
And by the end of the book he has all of the Sand Snakes sworing an oath to help him.
Yeah he is so uneffective this guy.
It's amazing how you guys keep blaming Doran for other character's mistakes.

This is the player in the game of thrones with the least resources and still he is definetly not the one with the worse results.

Edited by Doran II, 21 February 2012 - 10:26 AM.

[brashcandy]

Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren, on 21 February 2012 - 09:50 AM, said:

The reasons that Quentyn failed were unpredictable. Doran couldn't have predicted that his son would die. Quentyn  first failure was because Danny wanted to stay in Mereen and marry someone else to effectively rule the city (in her eyes). Even with that some sort of alliance was open so no full certain failure even if it is rather significant that she won't marry him.

No, the reasons were not unpredictable. As Bran Vras has stated in the OP, there were many things, simple preparatory arrangements for the most part, that could have ensured that Quentyn was in a better position. And how is it that Tyrion is basically able to predict all the things that will happen to Quentyn when he advises Aegon?

Quote

After that he failed because the situation became way too unpredictable, chaotirc, and out of control. Danny lost power and was presumed dead, her husband who wanted to kill the Dragons was in charge (and that Husband King did not have a positive view of Quentyn) and Quentyn decided to steal a dragon in those circumstances. If he didn't decide to do that (it was outside his mission parameters) he considered the situation lost precisely due to the unpredictable events that happened to no fault of Quentyn. So Danny being lost and presumed dead was the problem and for that Quentyn was not responsible. That this would happen was not something that Doran could have foreseen. Nor could he had foreseen Quentyn trying to steal a dragon.

Actually Quentyn had already failed by the time the situation became chaotic. Dany had told him to return home because she didn't think he was fit to be a dragon rider. He was too gentle and had grown up in a sheltered, peaceful environment. When Dany went missing, it allowed the real purpose of the mission to become paramount: the dragons. And I would argue that Doran knew his son might become desperate to prove himself.

Quote

Doran also doesn't seem to me to be so heartless that he would want his own son dead, that goes against what we know about that character and his personality.

Yes well bear in mind that Doran has appeared to be heartless for many many years to the Dornish people and his own family. This is what drove Arianne to take desperate measures with Myrcella.

Quote

Quentyn was sort of prepared for his journey but at the end it was a more difficult to achieve his goal than it was predicted, mostly due to how difficult the situation became rather than his own faults. His mission was not to steal a dragon that was what he alone decided to do in a very difficult circumstance.

How exactly was he "sort of prepared"? He had 4 friends with him and a Maester, 3 of whom end up dead before the journey has even gotten under way properly, and he carries a defunct marriage pact made for his sister and Dany's brother. He's all but lost in Volantis and has to hitch a ride with a sellsword army. He doesn't know anything valuable about the dragons, and can only inform Dany about Dornish history.

Quote

So I think the theory that Doran planned his son's death or set him up for failure on purpose is far fetched and I can't believe it.

I can understand that it's a hard idea to fathom, but the evidence overwhelming points to Doran not preparing his son properly. You can either decide Doran was simply a terrible plotter and strategist, or that there is something more going on.

Edited by brashcandy, 21 February 2012 - 11:14 AM.

[brashcandy]

Tini, on 21 February 2012 - 10:03 AM, said:

I don't see why Doran would have expected that books on dragons would help Quentyn accomplish his mission. Dany had successfully hatched dragons. For all Doran knew, she knew everything in his books, and more, about dragons. Quentyn didn't need to know about dragons. He sent his son to woo the Dragon Queen, not to steal her dragons. I don't see that Doran set his son up for failure but he knew that the chnaces of success were close to zero - and I think this knowledge colored his actions.

Yes, he did need to know about the dragons. That was the real purpose of the mission anyways, and even if Doran didn't think Quentyn would need to ride one, sending your son to propose marriage to a woman that has brought dragons into existence after so many years without knowing of these creatures, strikes me as bizarre. Dany isn't simply a Queen with dragons, she's a Targaryen Dragon Queen, and Quentyn is well aware of what his father is asking for: fire and blood. So knowing about the dragons wouldn't have simply been helpful, it was downright essential. Doran shouldn't have surmised Dany knew everything about dragons, afterall others do not, and Doran would have known the conditions she suffered under growing up, as Tyrion is able to tell Aegon. As I posted upthread, Quentyn's knowledge of dragons, even their basic habits and abilities, would have been been useful in helping Dany when she revealed her relative ignorance about them in the pits.

Quote

Despite the fact that Doran is considered a slow and careful planner, he's an utter failure in planning the details.

Yes, but doesn't that seem strangely paradoxical? After all, the very purpose of being a slow and careful planner is so you can plan details, not neglect them.

Quote

He planned a marriage between Viserys and Arianne, then failed to act for more than a decade until the plan was obsoleted by Viserys' death.

But does this make sense? I'm of the belief that Doran has no interest in seeing a Targ restoration to the Iron Throne, but besides this, it's very likely that he learnt of Viserys's predilection to madness and decided against it.

Quote

Quentyn's chances were slim at best, but does Doran think up ways to improve his chances? No.
Instead he focuses on keeping the mission secret. That works so well that Arianne and the Sand Sankes turn against him. Which naturally leads to more complaints from Doran.

No doubt Doran will complain, too, when he hears of Quentyn's quest. And feel that he is unjustly blamed for his death.

I don't see evidence that any of Doran's grand plans ever worked, Quentyn's death is just more proof of that.

And just why doesn't Doran think up of ways to improve his chances... unless of course he doesn't want to. I was resistant to the idea that this man was capable of sacrificing his son, or sabotaging his journey, but more and more I'm leaning to that theory. There can only be so many plot holes before you realise that Doran might have only sent Quent as a cover for another plan. I'm not necessarily saying he sent Quent to die, but he probably knew he would be coming back empty handed.

Edited by brashcandy, 21 February 2012 - 11:40 AM.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

brashcandy, on 21 February 2012 - 11:12 AM, said:

No, the reasons were not unpredictable. As Bran Vras has stated in the OP, there were many things, simple preparatory arrangements for the most part, that could have ensured that Quentyn was in a better position. And how is it that Tyrion is basically able to predict all the things that will happen to Quentyn when he advises Aegon?



Actually Quentyn had already failed by the time the situation became chaotic. Dany had told him to return home because she didn't think he was fit to be a dragon rider. He was too gentle and had grown up in a sheltered, peaceful environment. When Dany went missing, it allowed the real purpose of the mission to become paramount: the dragons. And I would argue that Doran knew his son might become desperate to prove himself.



Yes well bear in mind that Doran has appeared to be heartless for many many years to the Dornish people and his own family. This is what drove Arianne to take desperate measures with Myrcella.



How exactly was he "sort of prepared"? He had 4 friends with him and a Maester, 3 of whom end up dead before the journey has even gotten under way properly, and he carries a defunct marriage pact made for his sister and Dany's brother. He's all but lost in Volantis and has to hitch a ride with a sellsword army. He doesn't know anything valuable about the dragons, and can only inform Dany about Dornish history.



I can understand that it's a hard idea to fathom, but the evidence overwhelming points to Doran not preparing his son properly. You can either decide Doran was simply a terrible plotter and strategist, or that there is something more going on.

1. It was possible that Quentyn could be rejected. The reasons he was rejected were unpredictable and different than Tyrion's and had to do with Danny's different priorities. Despite the possibility for failure it was a risk worth pursuing for Dorne and Doran who lack resources. He was not rejected due to the reasons Tyrion's gave or due to lack of effort from Doran.

2. I don't remember that part but I am going to accept what you say that she did tell him to go home. Nevertheless an alliance with her was still possible and Quentyn could still stick.

3. We learn that he has been plotting for vengeance all these years and did  so  secretly.  I don't think there is much that points him at being heartless. Instead we know that he cares to plan for vengeance but  also wants to do it secretly and probably cares to not endanger Dorne. He also says this: "Its an easy thing for the Prince to call the spears, but in the end the children pay the price. For their sake, the wise prince will wage no war without good cause nor any war that he cannot hope to win"

4. Keep in mind that keeping his trip secret is not easy. Having a maester with him that dies at a pirate attack is not, being completely unprepared. I don't see how Doran is responsible for that or how people dying at a pirate attack is his fault.  He came being the prince of Dorne, the paper he brought, proving plans of Dorne to ally itself with the exiled Targaryen heirs, and promising Danny a foothold and thousand of spears. He was ultimately rejected due to the political situation in Mereen but he brought enough to prove that Dorne can be a friend to Danny who wants to go to westeros and it would be politically wise for her to marry him if she wanted to do so.

5. I don't think he was either heartless or have terrible plans. In this series plans don't work all the time, even if behind them there are the best intentions. Doran's resources are limited, and ways he can pursue secretly vengeance and restoration of Dorne to its place limited too. I actually don't think he is an incredible planner but I also don't think he is a very inept one. Due to how he goes with his plans, his plans are going to have some limitations. Not only because his resources are limited and he is secretive, I think he is less likely to take highly risky plans, putting himself with only very few available options due to Dorne's lack of power. He has to put his eggs on the Targaryan basket. Of course now with Aegon and with the Tyrell-Lannister problems he will have an opportunity to more openly play a bigger role.

Anyway I am not sure if I can persuade you but try to focus on a) limitations of Dorne's resources Doran plans having to be secretive c) plots are hard to work in ASOIAF and it is hard to predict what will go wrong c) Doran kind of has little options and attempting to ally with Targaryan heirs in secret and hope to support them when they come with an army is probably his best bet. I don't think his previous plan to marry Arriane with Visery's was false nor I see his Quentyn plan being false and having an ulterior motive. If his plan had succeeded it would really help at Dorne succeeding its goals for blood and vengeance. . Basically everything points to Doran really planning to marry his kids to Targaryan heirs and use them for blood vengeance and for the restorance of Dorne to a high place. Assuming a pretty different motivation and plans from his behalf seems far fetched.

Now as you mostly see two alternatives, one being that Doran is a bad planner, maybe the few options, secrecy etc can help you focus on how it might not  be that his planning is particularly bad but other things, like the particulars of Danny's situation played a role and how a plan not being certain to work is not only up to the planner's responsibility. Note that I don't think that he is a particularly great and infallible planner just that I believe there are many mitigating factors relating to Quentyn's quest that both explain how Doran can support a quest that it is possible to fail (limited options) and other issues.

Edited by Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren, 21 February 2012 - 03:44 PM.