46 replies to this topic

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Note that he also advices him to close the gates to Tywin IIRC unlike Pycelle.

He is a bit of a mystery to me, I guess a popular theory is that he is supporting the House Blackfyre but I am not sure why he advised Aerys to have the gates closed to Tywin. It is a correct advice but considering he was fueling Aerys paranoia which wasn't to Aerys benefit IMO his motives are unclear to me.

Edited by Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren, 09 February 2012 - 01:30 AM.

[Apple Martini]

Him sowing Aerys' paranoia and narcing on Rhaegar suggest that he was working to undermine the Targs, yeah. But I agree that him telling Aerys to keep the city gates closed is more of a mystery — you'd think he'd want the city to fall and the Targaryens to be displaced, unless he thought that a possible Lannister ruler would be worse. Or it could be something as simple as him knowing what Tywin had in store and worrying about his own ass.

[Ser Wun Wun]

There is also the possibility that he already had plans in place to eventually make "Aegon" king that depended on Aery's (or the Targ's in general) holding the throne. A new king, with all the new players he brings, would have changed everything. He was probably just trying to save Aery's in order to avoid having to alter all his plans. He tried to save Ned for a similar reason. In AGOT he said to Illyrio in the dungeon that 'war now would disrupt all our plans' so he then set up the Ned to the NW deal in order to divert it until things were ready for Aegon.

This is off-topic but while I'm thinking about it, is it said in the books that LF was the one who prompted Joffrey to call for Ned's head? I remember what he said about getting Joffrey to hire the dwarves for the wedding, 'leading a horse to water' and all that, but I can't remember if it is explicity said that he did the same for the execution. I'm sure I'm not the only one who is under the impression that he had a hand in it at least, I just wanted to know if the books actually confirmed it.

[Apple Martini]

^ I don't think it's ever explicitly said that Littlefinger's the one who was whispering in Joffrey's ear. It's one of those things that you can sort of figure out but that will probably never be 100% confirmed. Varys, Pycelle and Cersei all clearly expected Ned to be spared and sent to the Wall. Joffrey's not clever enough to break away from them on his own, so it makes sense that Baelish — who had it in for Ned anyway, for marrying Catelyn — whispered in his ear that, "Hey you're the king, not them, do you really want to be seen as weak and merciful," etc.

[Catastrophe]

I think Varys originally planned on House Targaryen winning the war, but at a high cost. Then he'd be able to put his own King on the Throne, while House Targaryen was still weak and out of favor with the people of Westeros. I don't think he wanted the Targaryens to lose altogether. He probably thought that having a Baratheon or Lannister on the Throne would be too unpredictable, which is why it took him almost two decades to finish putting his plans in motion.

Of course, it could just be that Varys was trying to save his own sorry hide, like Apple Martini suggested.

Regarding Littlefinger, it's never outright stated that he orchestrated Ned's execution, but we do know that Janos Slynt seemed to be expecting it. Since Slynt was Littlefinger's man at the time, it makes sense that Petyr was the one behind it. He certainly had no lack of motives; even if he didn't have personal reasons for wanting Ned dead, having the Lord of Winterfell alive with knowledge of Joffrey's too parentage was too great a risk for him. It could've easily screwed up his plans, whatever they may be.

[Paladinmesser]

This is a strange one, if Varys really was for the realm you'd think that he'd want Rhaegar on the throne instead of Aerys. Maybe he was simply doing his job and feared Rhaegar would remove him.

As to advising Aerys not to admit Tywin he probably had an idea of what Tywin was going to do. Tywin pretty much pulled a Walder Frey and waited around to see which side had the upper-hand before committing. I'd imagine Tywin was kinda pissed at Aerys for all the crap he put him through recently and in the past like, Aerys wanting Tywin's wife,refused to marry Cersei to Rhaegar, and letting Jamie join the Kingsgaurd with out his permission. Tywin did after all resign as Hand to return to Casterly Rock. Varys had to have felt there was a chance Tywin was there to sack the city, kill Aerys now that Rhaegar was dead and Tywin was in a position of power with an army outside the city. He probably also figured Tywin or Robert would kill him when the city fell as well.

[HyacinthGirl]

I agree with what Apple Martini said, and it is strange that he told Tywin to keep the gates closed, but could that be for no other reason than fearing for his personal safety? He probably thought if the city was sacked he wouldn't be spared. So he tried to prevent Tywin from taking KL not to protect the Targs, but to protect himelf.

[Apple Martini]

HyacinthGirl, on 09 February 2012 - 03:47 AM, said:

I agree with what Apple Martini said, and it is strange that he told Tywin to keep the gates closed, but could that be for no other reason than fearing for his personal safety? He probably thought if the city was sacked he wouldn't be spared. So he tried to prevent Tywin from taking KL not to protect the Targs, but to protect himelf.

I always wondered why Tywin let Varys live anyway. Pycelle I can see because he's the one who got Aerys to open the gate. Littlefinger came in later and was really Arryn's man, at least at the beginning. So how did Varys get away scot-free?

[Free Northman]

Varys's story about working for the realm is bogus.

He has his own nefarious plans.

He is a villain, not a humanist hero in disguise.

Edited by Free Northman, 09 February 2012 - 05:20 AM.

[FanTasy]

Regarding the original post: if there is an enemy marching towards you, I would think Varys' idea of not opening the gates was pretty loyal to the king he served at that moment. I always wondered about the advice Pycelle gave to open them - and of his loyalty.

[Tini]

HyacinthGirl, on 09 February 2012 - 03:47 AM, said:

I agree with what Apple Martini said, and it is strange that he told Tywin to keep the gates closed, but could that be for no other reason than fearing for his personal safety? He probably thought if the city was sacked he wouldn't be spared. So he tried to prevent Tywin from taking KL not to protect the Targs, but to protect himelf.

At the time, Aerys was getting more paranoid by the minute. Maybe he had started distrusting Varys, too. If Varys was aware of that, he may have advised Aerys to keep the gates closed knowing that the king would do the exact opposite.

Apple Martini, on 09 February 2012 - 02:08 AM, said:

Joffrey's not clever enough to break away from them on his own, so it makes sense that Baelish — who had it in for Ned anyway, for marrying Catelyn — whispered in his ear that, "Hey you're the king, not them, do you really want to be seen as weak and merciful," etc.

I don't agree. No, Joffrey was not clever - but then executing Ned was rather stupid. I think it was his own idea. Ned was a traitor, after all, and traitors get executed.

We have seen how Joffrey dispensed justice in other instances - he proved absolutely immune to advice from his mother / regency council, they didn't even try to interfere anymore. They didn't interfere because it made Joffrey mad, and because Joffrey's "justice" usually only involved unimportant people.

Joffrey was too stupid to distinguish between big fish and small fry. So he had Eddard Stark executed when it would have been advisable to send him to the Wall. And he gravely insulted his grandfather Tywin, not even realizing that it was within Tywin Lannisters's power to cut Joffrey's rampage short. Which Tywin would have done if Joffrey had survived his wedding day.

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

I think executing Ned was LF's idea, it's mentioned that Ilyn Payne seemed ready for the order which I think hints that it wasn't a spur of the moment thing.

I thought Varys didn't want the gates to be opened as he wanted a long drawn out siege. Perhaps so he could negotiate the death of Aerys and placing of Aegon on the throne under a regency of nobles. He could then baby swap Aegon with Young Griff before the gates were open and a Blackfyre would be raised as King, with Varys having some influence over the men who taught him.

Edited by RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon, 09 February 2012 - 06:11 AM.

[FanTasy]

Tini, on 09 February 2012 - 05:51 AM, said:

Joffrey was too stupid to distinguish between big fish and small fry. So he had Eddard Stark executed when it would have been advisable to send him to the Wall. And he gravely insulted his grandfather Tywin, not even realizing that it was within Tywin Lannisters's power to cut Joffrey's rampage short. Which Tywin would have done if Joffrey had survived his wedding day.

It was the deal that Ned would take the black. We know this from what Varys offers Ned, what Yoren tells Arya about the 'done deal' and from one of the Tyrion chapters. I always thought Joff wanted Ned's head to hurt Sansa. I read Joff as a parallel character to Ramsay. Both bastard born, both abusing and experimenting on the weak. Joffrey started harassing his little brother, in killing Tommen's pregnant cat as well as Tommen's pet fawn. When he got Sansa in his claws he had another object to hurt.

About Tywin not being able to give Joff the 'sharp lesson' he promised ... I would not be surprised if it was Tywin who was in league with the Tyrells to get Joffrey out of the way. Joffrey could have been the price Tywin was willing to pay to keep the Tyrells. After that scene where Olenna and Margaery questioned Sansa about Joff's character a consummated marriage between Joffrey and Margaery was out of the queston, as I took it.

ETA Sorry, this post is off topic

Edited by FanTasy, 09 February 2012 - 07:16 AM.

[Eejit]

Free Northman, on 09 February 2012 - 05:19 AM, said:

Varys's story about working for the realm is bogus.

And he lied to someone fatally wounded because...?

[Free Northman]

Eejit, on 09 February 2012 - 07:12 AM, said:

And he lied to someone fatally wounded because...?

He didn't lie. The children he was referring to just weren't the children of the realm in general, but certain specific children close to Varys's heart.

And he is willing to let all Seven Kingdoms go up in flames - like we have seen in the War of the Five Kings - just to favour those few favourites of his.

[LifeRuiner]

He didn't want the city sacked? It's practical, not sentimental. That's never a great outcome for anyone except those who sack.

It is possible that he had been hatching a completely different plan back then. And Lord Tywin would have been potentially harder to overthrow than Aerys or, as we now know, Robert.

[HyacinthGirl]

Apple Martini, on 09 February 2012 - 04:41 AM, said:

I always wondered why Tywin let Varys live anyway. Pycelle I can see because he's the one who got Aerys to open the gate. Littlefinger came in later and was really Arryn's man, at least at the beginning. So how did Varys get away scot-free?

I know, Varys is hardly the kind of man Tywin would have liked to have around...still, I think he appreciated that nobody knew things like Varys, that he was a great source of information and a great spy. And yeah, Varys drove Aerys well over the brink of batshit crazy, but Tywin probably didn't worry about Robert/Ned/Jon Arryn letting Varys' whispers get to them too much.
Still, it's wierd. Varys is rather good at staying alive.

Tini, on 09 February 2012 - 05:51 AM, said:

At the time, Aerys was getting more paranoid by the minute. Maybe he had started distrusting Varys, too. If Varys was aware of that, he may have advised Aerys to keep the gates closed knowing that the king would do the exact opposite.

Yeah, I think it's mentioned that Aerys was mistrusting Varys too, in the end. Still, Varys is hardly a brave man, and seems pretty reluctant about putting himself in any kind of danger, ever. I think he knew that he would be in immense danger if the city was sacked by Tywin and I don't think he wanted to risk the Lannisters deciding his fate, and genuinely tried to prevent the sack (for selfish reasons).
But, you could be right, Varys is an enigma and perhaps he was tricking Aerys into opening the gates. But I kind of feel Varys' tricking-people-into-doing-stuff powers are overrated: such as the 'Did Varys set Tyrion up to kill Tywin' theories. It's all a bit too risky and complicated and there isn't enough evidence.

Edited by HyacinthGirl, 09 February 2012 - 08:31 AM.

[Lykos]

I agree with LifeRuiner.

Varys aim was to destabilize the Kingdom at least till his ultimate plans could be executed.

There is nothing better than an unstable king, that you know how to manipulate.

[David C. Simmons]

FanTasy, on 09 February 2012 - 06:11 AM, said:

It was the deal that Ned would take the black. We know this from what Varys offers Ned, what Yoren tells Arya about the 'done deal' and from one of the Tyrion chapters. I always thought Joff wanted Ned's head to hurt Sansa. I read Joff as a parallel character to Ramsay. Both bastard born, both abusing and experimenting on the weak. Joffrey started harassing his little brother, in killing Tommen's pregnant cat as well as Tommen's pet fawn. When he got Sansa in his claws he had another object to hurt.

About Tywin not being able to give Joff the 'sharp lesson' he promised ... I would not be surprised if it was Tywin who was in league with the Tyrells to get Joffrey out of the way. Joffrey could have been the price Tywin was willing to pay to keep the Tyrells. After that scene where Olenna and Margaery questioned Sansa about Joff's character a consummated marriage between Joffrey and Margaery was out of the queston, as I took it.

ETA Sorry, this post is off topic

Nah because Tywin gave him a Valyrian Steel Sword and if he tried to have Joffrey killed that would make him a kinslayer, but when has Tywin ever let 'honor' get in his way

[LifeRuiner]

HyacinthGirl, on 09 February 2012 - 08:22 AM, said:

Still, Varys is hardly a brave man, and seems pretty reluctant about putting himself in any kind of danger, ever. I think he knew that he would be in immense danger if the city was sacked by Tywin and I don't think he wanted to risk the Lannisters deciding his fate, and genuinely tried to prevent the sack (for selfish reasons).

Bravery comes in different flavors. Varys might not have the military, obvious kind of bravery but what he has been doing for his cause (whatever it is) in Westeros, for years, is hardly not brave.

Besides, with his knowledge of hidden passages and of safe places under the Keep, he was the safest person in King's Landing at that moment.