159 replies to this topic

[The Sunset King]

The Battle of Mereen is at some point going to end.  If Massey is willing to wait long enough, some of these companies fighting for the Yunkai will become desperate for a new employer that does not consist mainly of those unable to pay because of the outcome of the battle and corpses.  They will have heavy casualities, of course, however, if the timining is right, Massey may be still able to get some of the sellsword companies presently fighting on the Yunkish side.

Edited by The Sunset King, 17 February 2012 - 10:05 AM.

[GreenHand]

Bran Vras, on 17 February 2012 - 09:53 AM, said:

For what it's worth, one sellsord company has not been located so far: the one founded by Oberyn after having left the Second Sons. And Oberyn was in Braavos at some point, since he signed the pact with Darry and the Sealord.

I was just thinking about that company. Oberyn's very warlike daughters may still have some contact with that company. If they remember Oberyn well and fondly perhaps that is Obara Sands (the most warrior-like of them) ultimate fate, to join and rally that company as the image of her father. Yes, perhaps Oberyn signed or put in place other pacts. Recall that Oberyn tried to rally forces in Dorne at one point to overthrow the new dynasty on the Iron Throne and avenge Elia. So he had a future war in mind. The time just wasn't right as his more circumspect brother Prince Doran tried to tell him.

[Bran Vras]

GreenHand, on 17 February 2012 - 10:07 AM, said:

I was just thinking about that company. Oberyn's very warlike daughters may still have some contact with that company. If they remember Oberyn well and fondly perhaps that is Obara Sands (the most warrior-like of them) ultimate fate, to join and rally that company as the image of her father. Yes, perhaps Oberyn signed or put in place other pacts. Recall that Oberyn tried to rally forces in Dorne at one point to overthrow the new dynasty on the Iron Throne and avenge Elia. So he had a future war in mind. The time just wasn't right as his more circumspect brother Prince Doran tried to tell him.

I take note of the interesting suggestion that Oberyn founded the company to fight in Westeros eventually. Surely there was a motive. It's not clear when was the company founded? And where?

[MSUMC25]

My thoughts are it will go well.  I mean there are only two books left.  It's about time Martin starts wrapping up the loose plots.

[Brucolac]

MSUMC25, on 17 February 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:

My thoughts are it will go well.  I mean there are only two books left.  It's about time Martin starts wrapping up the loose plots.

With two books left, I think it time to not start them.  That chapter where we found out Stannis is doing this won't be published for five years, and I hope that part of it is gone when it is.   It seems like a logistically imossible task to succeed, and I don't find it believable that Stannis would be given unlimited backing by the Iron Bank over a million dollar debt owed by the Crown to start with.

[Michael Jon Snow]

In Arya's storyline she has hidden Needle and ever since I have wondered what will happen to make her take up her Needle and return to Westeros. My guess would be that Massey and "Arya" arriving in Braavos will bring about her reclaiming her Stark identity.

[Lady Octarina]

The Sunset King, on 17 February 2012 - 10:05 AM, said:

The Battle of Mereen is at some point going to end.  If Massey is willing to wait long enough, some of these companies fighting for the Yunkai will become desperate for a new employer that does not consist mainly of those unable to pay because of the outcome of the battle and corpses.  They will have heavy casualities, of course, however, if the timining is right, Massey may be still able to get some of the sellsword companies presently fighting on the Yunkish side.

This seems the more likely, but I do like the idea presented on page 1 Massey would return with Aurane Waters and his pirates (and maybe Salador Saan?). But wouldn't Stannis cut their fingers for their treason or something? Why would they fight for someone who would punish them at the same time as they were rewarded?

The only way to try to imagine who Massey will hire is: from whose POV would we learn about that? Because it would be too deus ex machina if he just arrived with a company of sellswords in the middle of a battle, and us having no idea where he was in-between. So this makes it more likely that he would:
1) cross paths with Arya at some point and return to Westeros with her
2) meet someone who is now around Meereen and return with them. Tyrion is the most likely, though he has no love for Stannis, and vice versa. But... what if they heard Stannis was dead and something about Jon Snow's heritage? Tyrion likes him, he could wish to help. But I simply don't see him abandoning Daenerys (or rather, her dragons) if he ever gets to them. Barristan will probably die along the way, and Daenerys and Victarion don't seem to be the kind of people that would welcome Massey, so...

So that's it: Massey will have to meet Arya or Tyrion at some point, because nothing else makes sense. His comlete failure wouldn't, at least. And since chances are there won't be new POVs...

[jarl the climber]

Seed, on 16 February 2012 - 05:53 PM, said:

This is Stannis grasping at his final straw.  There's no possible way that Massey is going to be able to make it over there, get 20,000 dudes, and make it back before Stannis makes a critical error of some sort.  BUT if he does, I agree that Massey might be Arya's ticket back to Westeros.  I don't think he'll turn his cloak, but he will fail in this attempt.  Didn't dude from the Iron Bank go with him?

We also have to keep in mind that not all sellsword companies are standing forces, I beleive that Bronn raised about 1,000 sellswords in Kings Landing for the Blackwater battle, they were dismissed after the fight. So its possible that Massey will have to help raise new companies to try and meet his quota, there is also a smaller Khalasar out there on the run from Khal Pono, maybe he can try to hire them. I don't know if he can raise 20,000 but he will raise some kind of force, he needs to if he is to get Asha. It could be this force he raises is a disaster, but he also could play the R'hollor card and make it out to be a holy crusade against the Others and their Thralls(Lannisters and anyone not for Stannis), it cxould be that this force of foreigners is the true disaster.

[GreenHand]

jarl the climber, on 18 February 2012 - 12:05 AM, said:

... but he also could play the R'hollor card and make it out to be a holy crusade against the Others and their Thralls(Lannisters and anyone not for Stannis), it cxould be that this force of foreigners is the true disaster.

The Strength of the R'hollor faith/cult in the East is a definite plot twist. But the top red priests (in Volantis for example) have already gone out on a limb in declaring Daenerys to be Azor Ahai returned. As Tyrion points out they are unlikely to suffer (anti-support) the presence/leadership of TWO messiahs. Their better bet might have been Stannis who is officially for the faith (even though its only for the sake of winning the war), while Daenerys is not (though she is for fire and dragons). Let's not forget that Victorian (heading for a convergence with the other players in Meereen/Essos) is slowly warming up to the Red faith and its pay offs (no pun intended).

[GreenHand]

Everyone has tried to broker an alliance with the Iron born, but none have succeeded. The Iron born are already effectively at war with the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. And Balon at least did seem interested in allying with someone, unsuccessfully approaching Tywin. Stannis also has the two Greyjoy "heirs" in his custody. That may be leverage whether by offering/theatening to release them or execute them. Victorian takes kinslaying seriously enduring much to avoid it. Euron seems to be rather enamoured of kinslaying as a vehicle.

[GreenHand]

Brucolac, on 17 February 2012 - 03:53 PM, said:

With two books left, I think it time to not start them.  That chapter where we found out Stannis is doing this won't be published for five years, and I hope that part of it is gone when it is.   It seems like a logistically imossible task to succeed, and I don't find it believable that Stannis would be given unlimited backing by the Iron Bank over a million dollar debt owed by the Crown to start with.

Actually in the long run its more important for Iron Bank that people fear not paying them, by seeing the downfall of those who don't pay their debts to the Iron Bank. They already have this reputation and so must maintain it. It is imperitive for them that Cersei/Tommen find disaster.
And I'm sure they've investigated Stanis's reputation for being a stickler for the letter of the law and agreements and propriety. An unbendable Iron man (Stannis) for an new Iron contract.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

GreenHand, on 18 February 2012 - 03:26 AM, said:

Everyone has tried to broker an alliance with the Iron born, but none have succeeded. The Iron born are already effectively at war with the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. And Balon at least did seem interested in allying with someone, unsuccessfully approaching Tywin. Stannis also has the two Greyjoy "heirs" in his custody. That may be leverage whether by offering/theatening to release them or execute them. Victorian takes kinslaying seriously enduring much to avoid it. Euron seems to be rather enamoured of kinslaying as a vehicle.

The failure in alliances falls on the late Balon Greyjoy.  Robb sent Theon to him with a great idea to capture Casterly Rock and end Lannister power forever.  Instead he wrongly and blindly blamed Ned Stark for the death of his sons.  The end result of his treachery was loss of territory he could never have held, loss of his son and heir and ultimately the loss of his life.

Euron could care less about alliances as he is rolling the dice on getting Dany and her dragons for complete conquest.  Asha is by far the most astute leader as she realizes the old ways are dead and seeks to bring the iron men into modern times.  She wanted the alliance with Robb Stark.

[ManyFacedOne]

Stallion That Mounts Texas, on 18 February 2012 - 04:38 AM, said:

She wanted the alliance with Robb Stark.

Robb Stark was dead by the time any truce was talked about.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

ManyFacedOne, on 18 February 2012 - 09:33 PM, said:

Robb Stark was dead by the time any truce was talked about.

In AFFC Asha laments on her father's bad rule and thinks that he should have taken the deal that Robb sent with Theon.  That was the alliance I was referring to.

[Bran Vras]

There is an obvious pool of recruitment that deserves being mentioned, even if it never appears in Stannis's recommendations to Massey. I am thinking that Stannis fights under the banner of the Red God. We know that the R'hllor has large temples and many followers in the Free Cities. Massey could talk to the High Priest in Volantis and elsewhere, claim that Stannis fight for their cause and ask them to raise an army of followers of the Red God for Stannis. He might not even need the support of the Iron Bank.

Stannis could have pursued such a strategy all along. Apparently Melisandre has not encouraged him to. Why? Does the religion of R'hllor stay out of conflicts?

[Pliskin]

Bran Vras, on 19 February 2012 - 03:14 AM, said:

Stannis could have pursued such a strategy all along. Apparently Melisandre has not encouraged him to. Why? Does the religion of R'hllor stay out of conflicts?

The Red Temples don't have any armies nor soldiers...
The great majority of their followers are slaves.
That's why they wanna support Daenerys.

[Bran Vras]

Pliskin, on 19 February 2012 - 06:50 AM, said:

The Red Temples don't have any armies nor soldiers...
The great majority of their followers are slaves.
That's why they wanna support Daenerys.

It's true that they haven't any standing army and no tradition of military conquest. But, isn't it said that most officers of the Volantene army are followers of the Red God? In any case, the religion of R'hllor is a huge force. Consider the size of their temples, even in Braavos (where there are no slaves), and that they are present in all the Free Cities, even in Dorne. The priests could have sent help to Stannis all along. It seems that Melisandre didn't want to appeal to them.

[Pliskin]

Bran Vras, on 19 February 2012 - 07:07 AM, said:

It's true that they haven't any standing army and no tradition of military conquest. But, isn't it said that most officers of the Volantene army are followers of the Red God? In any case, the religion of R'hllor is a huge force. Consider the size of their temples, even in Braavos (where there are no slaves), and that they are present in all the Free Cities, even in Dorne. The priests could have sent help to Stannis all along. It seems that Melisandre didn't want to appeal to them.

Well, being an officer doesn't mean you can do whatever you want with your army. I'm not even sure that they are free officers.
The armies are bound to their respective cities. And the slaves are bound to their masters.
That's why they'd rather support Dany than Stannis. Dany could free them. Stannis doesn't care about Essos. Why would they help him ?

But I do agree with you that it's weird that Mel never thought about seeking the help of the Red Temples (she doesn't know that they support Dany).

[The Raven's Teeth]

I think that ultimately Ser Justin is going to be Arya's way back to Westeros; I think that when he (along with Jeyne) arrive in Braavos Arya will encounter them.

And either; the shock/annoyance at seeing a fake Arya Stark will shake Arya out of her FM training or an encounter with Jeyne will remind Arya of the importance of 'knowing her name'.

Alternatively they carry news to Braavos of what happened to Jon & that leads Arya to heading back to Westeros with them for a bit of revenge.

I'm pretty sure that Ser Justin if/once he finds out would be keen to return her to the North & Stannis.

Edited by The Raven's Teeth, 19 February 2012 - 09:57 AM.

[Ice Turtle]

The Raven, on 19 February 2012 - 07:30 AM, said:

I think that ultimately Ser Justin is going to be Arya's way back to Westeros; I think that when he (along with Jeyne) arrive in Bravos Arya will encounter them.

And either; the shock/annoyance at seeing a fake Arya Stark will shake Arya out of her FM training or an encounter with Jeyne will remind Arya of the importance of 'knowing her name'.

Alternatively they carry news to Bravos of what happened to Jon & that leads Arya to heading back to Westeros with them for a bit of revenge.

I'm pretty sure that Ser Justin if/once he finds out would be keen to return her to the North & Stannis.

I really doubt she will voluntary tell him who she is.