Middle East/North Africa #11 - now with added Theoretical Collapse

[All-for-Joffrey]

I'm including a petition in this thread asking the Australian government to take action about three journalists' detainment in Egypt (the military and newly elected powers that be have also detained several Americans). I don't know any of them personally but Austin Mackwell is a friend of a friend. Like all online petitions, it's very easy to sign and, as a friend of mine says "imagine if this was happening to me or someone else you know." Please encourage others to do so as well.

ETA: My bad.

http://www.change.or...ells-matter-now

[Lord O' Bones]

If there's a petition anywhere around here, I surely can't find it.

[Young Wolf]

Dude, it's right there! How could you not see it?? Put down the bottle and focus you drunk bastard!

[Xray the Enforcer]

You fucker, Dub. I was just waiting for the OP to edit with a link to write pretty much exactly what you did, then I got distracted and *bam* ganked my thunder! :lol:

[Young Wolf]

You fucker, Dub. I was just waiting for the OP to edit with a link to write pretty much exactly what you did, then I got distracted and *bam* ganked my thunder! :lol:

Don't worry...I'll get bored of this place again in a couple more weeks and it will be all yours again. :P

[KAH]

I signed the petition without actually reading it.

I still reserve the right to be mad, if I find out I've signed my firstborn into slavery.

Just so you know.

[Crazydog7]

Sorry I only sign petition's for failed TV shows online at least those are honest. Signing online petitions in hope of tangible political action does as much good as changing your avatar to a specific food stops world hunger.

Don't worry nothing permanent will happen to any of these people. It might cause an apathetic population to take notice of world events.

[KAH]

Libya breaking up?

OK, semi-autonomy isn't secession, but with the situation as it is in Libya, this may be the first step into something more.

[KAH]

Egypt scraps gas deal with Israel.

How serious is this for Israel? 40 % of gas supplies lost sounds like a big deal, but I assume that at least some mitigation could be found given a little time...

[Sci-2]

Signed it - hope it helps. As for petitions mattering, wasn't it a petition that got the feds involved in the Martin-Zimmerman case?

[Yoadm]

Egypt scraps gas deal with Israel.

How serious is this for Israel? 40 % of gas supplies lost sounds like a big deal, but I assume that at least some mitigation could be found given a little time...

Israel has been preparing for this possibility for a while, since the gas pipeline was attacked and blown up more than 8 times since the 'spring' hit Egypt. It might create power shortages at peak hours, but within a few months our newly discovered Tamar gas reserve will come online and replace the shortcomings from the cancelled deal with Egypt.

The problem is that this might be the first of many moves that, while they hurt Egypt economically (you can't store surplus gas cheaply, like oil for example), are rather populistic moves meant to inflame public sentiment and divert it from internal matters. Cutting off relations with Israel, even revoking the peace agreement, has become an actual possibility. We are simply too good a target to ignore.

[snake]

The intervention in Lybia has been such a "success" that the powers that be are now considering the same course of action for Syria.

Story.

Doesn't it make ya proud??

[KAH]

I thought this was already the plan.

Whose plan was that, again? And when was this plan brought to your attention?

[Horza]

Well that was a big waste of everyone's time:

Today, Egypt's constitutional court delivered the coup de grace by refusing to disqualify Mubarak's former prime minister Ahmed Shafik from the race and effectively dissolving the elected parliament by declaring the individual election of one-third of its members illegal. The former decision was probably the right one, to be frank, though it was a missed opportunity for a "hail Mary" political reset. But the latter was absurd, destructive, and essentially voids Egypt's last year of politics of meaning. Weeks before the SCAF's scheduled handover of power, Egypt now finds itself with no parliament, no constitution (or even a process for drafting one), and a divisive presidential election with no hope of producing a legitimate, consensus-elected leadership. Its judiciary has become a bad joke, with any pretence of political independence from the military shattered beyond repair.

The SCAF's power grab in the final days looks more like panic than the execution of a carefully prepared master scheme. It likely reflected a combination of fear of rising Islamist power, self-preservation, and growing confidence in its ability to control street protests. The prospect of the Muslim Brotherhood controlling Parliament and the presidency likely scared them more than many people conditioned by speculation about a MB-SCAF alliance recognized -- a dynamic that Robert Springborg captured extremely well for Foreign Policy a few months ago. Of course it wanted to preserve its economic empire and political protections. But both of those were constant over the course of the transition, and don't explain its heavy-handed moves at the climax of the process.

What was new, and which likely emboldened this reckless behavior at the end of the transition, was its belief that it had effectively neutered revolutionary movements and protestors. The SCAF likely believes that a renewal of massive, sustained protest is no longer in the cards through a combination of its own repression and relentless propaganda, along with the strategic mistakes by protestors themselves. It doesn't feel threatened by a few thousand isolated protestors in Tahrir, and probably is gambling that they won't be joined by the masses that made the Jan. 25 revolution last year. They may also feel that the intense rifts of suspicion and rage dividing the Muslim Brotherhood from non-Islamist political trends are now so deep that they won't be able to cooperate effectively to respond. Or they may feel that the MB would rather cut a deal, even now, than take it to the next level. They may be right, they may be wrong. But I wouldn't bet on stability.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

Seems that the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohammed Morsi, won the Egyptian presidential election. Apparently, he's a big supporter of Jerusalem being the capital of Egypt, at least assuming the translation is correct. And he goes on:

"Our cry shall be, millions of martyrs shall march towards Jerusalem." etc., etc.

http://www.breitbart...m-Allah-Willing

And then the musical entertainment begins:

"Banish the sleep from the eyes of all Jews

Come on, you lovers of martyrdom

we all are Hamas!

It's really quite catchy.

ETA: Apparently, the speaker was initially misidentified as being Morsi himself. In fact, it was the cleric he apparently chose to introduce him at a May 1 rally. Not sure it really makes all that much difference, though, seeing as these are the folks with whom Morsi has voluntariy chosen to affiliate himself.

[Robin Of House Hill]

And no one will put these bastards down because we've all been taught to "respect the beliefs of others". Others have said I have no respect for human life. So be it. It is time for a counter-jihad.

[Usotsuki]

It's strange how rapidly politicians age once they achieve office, men go bald in minutes rather than years, President Morsi looks like a completely different person to candidate Morsi, oh wait a sec ...

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Anyone else hear about Syria shooting down a Turkish jet? Will this complicate things much?

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/24/world/meast/turkey-syria-plane/index.html?c=middleeast

[Horza]

Anyone else hear about Syria shooting down a Turkish jet? Will this complicate things much?

http://www.cnn.com/2...ml?c=middleeast

If the pilots are dead, and no one's heard from them so far, you'd think Turkey would have to respond, though probably not directly. They're already keeping the Syrian insurgency alive by letting them cross their border, so maybe further measures in that direction.

Meanwhile:

An Iraqi press freedom group has condemned authorities for ordering the closure of 44 news organisations, including a US-funded radio station.

No media outlet is reported to have been forced to close so far but critics say the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is sending a warning to the media.

The dispute calls into question the future of Iraq's fledgling democracy, nine years after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and six months after the last of the US troops who overthrew him withdrew.

Ziyad al-Aajely, the head of the Journalistic Freedoms Observatory, called the move to shut down media offices "a setback to the freedom of journalism in Iraq."

"It is a government message to the media outlets that if you are not with us, then you are against us," he said by telephone.

The list, which officials say was compiled a month ago, only became public on Sunday.

Most of the 44 newspapers, radio and television stations targeted for shutdown are Iraqi, although foreign broadcasters including the BBC and Voice of America are on the list as well as the US-funded Radio Sawa. The BBC and Voice of America have closed most permanent news operations in Iraq.

[Paladin of Ice]

It looks like the secularists are the strongest force after the election in Libya.

The National Forces Alliance, led by ex-interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril, has won 39 out of 80 seats reserved for political parties. The Muslim Brotherhood's party has gained 17.

The 200-member National Assembly will also include dozens of independent candidates. The overall orientation that the assembly will have is therefore unclear.

What remains to be seen is who, if anyone, will lead the assembly by majority, the BBC's Rana Jawad in Tripoli reports. That will depend on the allegiances of 120 independent candidates, which are largely unknown, she adds.

Meanwhile in Syria, fighting has been happening in the capital, and reports are that Syria is pulling troops from the Golan Heights in an attempt to put down revolt. Assad must be feeling desperation setting in.