468 replies to this topic

[Ygrain]

Gala, on 29 February 2012 - 02:59 PM, said:

I would probably sound strange, but it is related to the topic…sort of:

Why on Earth we were reading 4 books and only in the 5th the true heir appeared? It just seem strange to me! It is not an evidence that Aegon is a fake, I just wonder why? All that we were reading before would make no sense, because we haven't even know this guy to like him (I always thought that one of the main character should be a king rather than some stranger).

Don't get me wrong, I do not know whether he is fake or not (although, I prone to think he is a false dragon) and I think his appearance makes a wonderful twist, but it seems a little bit (I don't know even how to call this…well let it be) strange to heir and a PtwP to be discovered almost at the end of a series. it is not logical. Unless GRRM wants to impress us, but frankly I would be disappointed, if is a real heir and will sit on the Iron Throne. I hope that Varys and Illirio fail their purpose, I don't like what they do.

I do think that he is a Blackfyre, but neither he nor his companions know that he is not a Targ. The boy was raised to thinking that he is.

The same with me. A brand new heir to the throne in book 5, and that from the author who has carefully littered the series with hints of things past, present and future, yet we never get one of this "Aegon"? And, as if this was not enough, we get information from two, albeit not 100% reliable, sources that at some point, there will turn up a false Targ - not only Quaithe's "mummer's dragon" but also Moqorro's "dragons true and false" that he sees in the flames. I don't believe the boy is the real Aegon - and I'm not American.

[Buried Treasure]

Nymphetamine, on 29 February 2012 - 02:17 PM, said:

Dany was threatened with being sold into slavery and she is a Targaryen. You really don't think its possible that a descendant of a long dead house could possibly have ended up as a slave? She most likely didn't even use or have the Blackfyre name. I mean its been what, a hundred years since Maelys (sp?) was slain?

I find it really unlikely that a Blackfyre heir would be sold as a bedwarmer when a slaver would get a hundred times the price by ransoming her to the Golden Company.

You did not address my point about Dany having had no retainers and the Blackfyres having the support of an entire army. The GC were loyal to the Blackfyres and that only ended because the Blackfyres are all dead.

[Ygrain]

Just one thing to point out about the supposed baby swap: with a one-year-old, it is not only a matter of people recognizing him, but also of the child recognizing THEM. A one-year-old knows pretty well who his people are, and would not start behaving Aegon-ish just because it's expected of him. Unless the swap happened within the last couple of minutes and the child was drugged to sleep, there is no way Elia and whoever was taking care of him can't have known.

[Lummel]

Buried Treasure, on 29 February 2012 - 03:18 PM, said:

I find it really unlikely that a Blackfyre heir would be sold as a bedwarmer when a slaver would get a hundred times the price by ransoming her to the Golden Company.

We don't know what condition the golden company was in at the end of the war of the ninepenny kings or where the womenfolk were while the men were being beaten on the stepstones.  Judging from ADWD it is not too difficult to become a slave.

[Apple Martini]

Ygrain, on 29 February 2012 - 03:20 PM, said:

Just one thing to point out about the supposed baby swap: with a one-year-old, it is not only a matter of people recognizing him, but also of the child recognizing THEM. A one-year-old knows pretty well who his people are, and would not start behaving Aegon-ish just because it's expected of him. Unless the swap happened within the last couple of minutes and the child was drugged to sleep, there is no way Elia and whoever was taking care of him can't have known.

The idea of a switch is, for me, the hardest pill to swallow in all of this. About three dozen different things had to have gone right in order to pull it off convincingly, and some of those things couldn't have possibly been foreseen, only known after they'd actually happened. Gregor had to destroy Aegon's face. They had to get to and from Flea Bottom with different babies without anyone knowing. They had to find a child with Targaryen features in freaking Flea Bottom. Elia had to have been in on it, but not to the point where she would have demanded herself and/or Rhaenys also be saved. Either that or we're expected to believe that she wouldn't know her own goddamn baby. Varys had to have known a sack was coming and had enough forewarning to make the switch. Someone else had to have acted as a "drop box" for when they got the baby out; who would this have been? All it takes is one mouthy servant hoping to save his own ass or curry favor with the new regime to say he saw something for the whole thing to blow open. And I'm sorry but Connington is not reliable here — I don't take a guy who didn't see this child at all until he was like 5 years old (who raised him before then?) and who was in love with Rhaegar to be that great of a character witness. More like a stooge.

I actually do hope that Bloodraven was warging Balerion the cat that night. I'd be curious to know what he saw or didn't see.

Also, and I'm not trying to be sexist here, but it seems like a lot of the people on here who are willing to buy the baby switch are men and a lot of the people who are very skeptical about it are women. Am I incorrect? I don't want to venture a guess as to why this might be for fear of offending people, but I have some ideas.

[Sasha Steelsong]

Apple for me the switch, or more the logistics in pulling it off not the general principle, is the hardest part for me to buy and what makes me think that it is highly improbably that Aegon is Rhaegar and Elia's baby boy.  It is not just that there are a lot of details that have to fall into place, it is that there are a lot of details OUT OF VARYS' CONTROL that have to fall into place for it to even be possible. Principally that the baby's head is smashed beyond all recognition by someone that Varys had no control of or over and Gregor admits to smashing the kid's head in (so it is not like Varys did it afterwards to make it impossible to tell that a switch had occured before Gregor got there). That combined with the fact that they would have needed a child who looked Targaryen (and while a heck of a lot more common in Esos, a very rare thing in Westeros).  Too much would have had to be left to chance for the switch to have been pulled off and Varys doesn't strike me as the kind of person to leave a plan this important to chance.

ETA:  For the man/woman switch/no-switch inquiry - woman and obviously skeptical about the switch.

Edited by atpthornton, 29 February 2012 - 04:05 PM.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

FTR, I am male and do not buy the baby-switch.

[Fire and Blood!]

Apple Martini, on 29 February 2012 - 03:34 PM, said:

Also, and I'm not trying to be sexist here, but it seems like a lot of the people on here who are willing to buy the baby switch are men and a lot of the people who are very skeptical about it are women. Am I incorrect? I don't want to venture a guess as to why this might be for fear of offending people, but I have some ideas.

Interesting.I think you are correct(I myself am a man) although I did not notice it before you pointed it out.Please do share your ideas with me, I'm not offended by sexist stuff.

[dtones520]

Lord Damian, on 29 February 2012 - 01:52 PM, said:

Varys and Illyrio almost have to be for the Blackfyre faction . Aegon/Young Griff has been groomed to rule, I do not doubt this. They always wanted to get rid of Viserys but not look like they were gettting rid of him, hence the Dothraki. They hoped they would die and never be seen again until dany hatched the eggs, then she was the person that Aegon needed to marry in order to secure their line on the throne. Note: they must have access to many dragon eggs for them to just give 3 as a wedding present and that they are extermemly valuable. Dany hatching the eggs was a accident but one they (varys and Illyrio) were/are trying to exploit. Tyrion threw their plans in the river when he convinces Aegon to attack Westeros and claim the throne without Dany, insisting she will come when she learns of Aegon's existance. Jon Connington has two things of necessity he insists upon to their advisors, Prince Doran and Dorne must be
on their side (they need the spears and the region) and Aegon must be free to marry his aunt and gain a Targ bride and the dragons.  Doran, I will not doubt will support him but as for marrying Dany, it will not happen, he will need more than Dorne as an ally and Dany is of no use to him now.

That doesnt prove they are Blackfyre supporters. It could, but it to me proved they knew Viserys was crazy and would probably try to kill Aegon if he ever found out about him. Regardless of Aegon being real or not. If Danerys died, no biggie, Aegon is still around.

Now, why he gave Dany the eggs, i dont understand, if he wanted her dead. Those are some pretty valuable things to be throwing away like that. Unless he was just fond of Dany or planned on marrying Aegon to her all along regardless of the Dragons being born. Probably was really using her to get a dothraki Army, get Viserys killed in the process, add the Dothraki to the Golden Company and Dorne and you win.

[the Remarkable Other]

Personally I think that the Blackfyre theory fits best, even if we dismiss the prophecies. However I would like to point out that the argument that a baby switch is only possible in hindsight, due to Clegane smashing his head, is not really axiomatic. We know that Elia and her children were basically Aerys's hostages and were not allowed to leave the red Keep. It was next to impossible to get either Elia or her daughter out, since they were probably being watched. If Varys somehow managed to convince Elia that he was her son's only chance the baby switch could have been made with the intention of fooling not just Tywin's men, but Aerys as well. Also after the sack I don't think there would have been many people left alive who could positively identify the child, even if he were not disfigured. Jaime perhaps. And what was Varys risking if the substitution was discovered? He could have simply remained hidden in the secret passages of RK or fled to Essos.
OK, done with advocating for the devil. Highly unlikely to find a child of the right age, with Valyrian features, in Flea Botttom. Varys's behaviour doesn't strike me at all as altruistic and definitely not as aTargaryen loyalist. And why would Elia trust him?
I'm also male and I do not believe in the switch.

[Nymphetamine]

Buried Treasure, on 29 February 2012 - 03:18 PM, said:

I find it really unlikely that a Blackfyre heir would be sold as a bedwarmer when a slaver would get a hundred times the price by ransoming her to the Golden Company.

You did not address my point about Dany having had no retainers and the Blackfyres having the support of an entire army. The GC were loyal to the Blackfyres and that only ended because the Blackfyres are all dead.

Dany had plenty of support when she was threatened with slavery.

We have no idea how the GC was at the time of Maelys defeat or how they felt/if they even knew about the female line. We don't even know if the commander of the GC after Maelys would have even cared about the female line. I don't see why its so hard to believe that a Blackfyre descendant could have somewhere down the line become a slave in such an unforgiving place as Essos.

Blackheart is important. Why would he switch the Blackfyre loyalist GC to support the Targaryens, their sworn enemy? This should raise red flags. He would be the one who decided to support the female line and Aegon..

[Apple Martini]

OnionAhaiReborn, on 29 February 2012 - 03:51 PM, said:

FTR, I am male and do not buy the baby-switch.

Thanks for the info. I might end up being wrong, I just noticed what seemed like a pattern.

Fire and Blood!, on 29 February 2012 - 03:57 PM, said:

Interesting.I think you are correct(I myself am a man) although I did not notice it before you pointed it out.Please do share your ideas with me, I'm not offended by sexist stuff.

This is probably going to piss off at least one person, but here it goes.

Women either are mothers or have the capacity to be mothers or had the capacity to be mothers. As such, the idea that Elia Martell would either hand off her baby to someone like Varys — blindly trusting him that her baby would be saved — or somehow not know her own baby if he was switched or would save one child but not another is just ... unfathomable. I cannot imagine not knowing my own baby, placing a higher value on the survival of one child over another or giving up my baby to someone of dubious trustworthiness. Men, while they might have some fatherly instinct, I think might assume that babies are more ... interchangeable ... than they really are. "All babies look the same right, who would know?" They might be more willing to believe that a mother could be fooled or that a mother could part with her child more easily or be able to choose between her children or even that a fake Aegon could fool people. I'm not even sure if this theory holds water — see above, OAR is a guy who's skeptical — but it was something that occurred to me.

[the Scorpion Knight]

atpthornton, on 29 February 2012 - 03:44 PM, said:

Apple for me the switch, or more the logistics in pulling it off not the general principle, is the hardest part for me to buy and what makes me think that it is highly improbably that Aegon is Rhaegar and Elia's baby boy.  It is not just that there are a lot of details that have to fall into place, it is that there are a lot of details OUT OF VARYS' CONTROL that have to fall into place for it to even be possible. Principally that the baby's head is smashed beyond all recognition by someone that Varys had no control of or over and Gregor admits to smashing the kid's head in (so it is not like Varys did it afterwards to make it impossible to tell that a switch had occured before Gregor got there). That combined with the fact that they would have needed a child who looked Targaryen (and while a heck of a lot more common in Esos, a very rare thing in Westeros).  Too much would have had to be left to chance for the switch to have been pulled off and Varys doesn't strike me as the kind of person to leave a plan this important to chance.

when you consider tywin instead of the mountain (he said to tyrion himself he wanted the kids DEAD, he even refused to give the mountain do dorne) and  the chaos during a sack it makes much more plausible

[FanTasy]

Post # 125 Apple Martini
The idea of a switch is, for me, the hardest pill to swallow in all of this. About three dozen different things had to have gone right in order to pull it off convincingly, and some of those things couldn't have possibly been foreseen, only known after they'd actually happened.
Gregor had to destroy Aegon's face.
How recognisable would a smothered child be? Considering the other child is described as having half a hundred stab wounds, I wonder how easy it was to recognise her.

They had to get to and from Flea Bottom with different babies without anyone knowing.
They had to find a child with Targaryen features in freaking Flea Bottom. Elia had to have been in on it, but not to the point where she would have demanded herself and/or Rhaenys also be saved. Either that or we're expected to believe that she wouldn't know her own goddamn baby.
After Rhaegar was killed Aegon was a valuable pawn to Dorne. Elia may have listened to what her brother wanted, if this would secure her son's life.

Varys had to have known a sack was coming and had enough forewarning to make the switch.
Seems not impossible.

Someone else had to have acted as a "drop box" for when they got the baby out; who would this have been?
Ashara Dayne?

All it takes is one mouthy servant hoping to save his own ass or curry favor with the new regime to say he saw something for the whole thing to blow open.
True. But this is not proof that it could not have happened. I guess this is the same risk Ned Stark faced when he took care of a child and cloaked the truth.

Mind you, I'm not sure that there was a baby switch in Kings Landing. Unless GRRM tells us more about what happened I'm inclined to keep an open mind that there could be one.

Edited by FanTasy, 29 February 2012 - 04:16 PM.

[Apple Martini]

FanTasy, on 29 February 2012 - 04:14 PM, said:

After Rhaegar was killed Aegon was a valuable pawn to Dorne. Elia may have listened to what her brother wanted, if this would secure her son's life.

You can smother a child and even stab them without destroying their face.

Quote

Seems not impossible.

"Not impossible" isn't really good enough for me, I'm afraid.  

Quote

Ashara Dayne?

Perhaps. Perhaps not. We don't know who Septa Lemore is or how long she'd been with fake!Aegon. And Ashara was at Starfall for at least some period of time after the sack.

Quote

True. But this is not proof that it could not have happened. I guess this is the same risk Ned Stark faced when he took care of a child and cloaked the truth.

You can't prove a negative. I just said, if a servant saw anything, it'd be in his interest to say so. And Ned's situation isn't the same here. He would have hatched his plan with, I believe, one servant whose loyalty had already been proved (Wylla), in a far more isolated setting, one not in very immediate danger. Not quite the same thing as trying to keep the truth from probably a few dozen people running around in chaos while a city was in immediate danger of falling to besiegers.

Quote

Unless GRRM tells us more about what happened I'm inclined to keep an open mind that there could be one.

It's quite possible that we never learn the truth about Aegon. In fact I'm kind of leaning that way, that Martin will leave it to prophecy and clues and easter eggs for people to put it together.

[FanTasy]

Apple Martini, on 29 February 2012 - 04:07 PM, said:

Women either are mothers or have the capacity to be mothers or had the capacity to be mothers. As such, the idea that Elia Martell would either hand off her baby to someone like Varys — blindly trusting him that her baby would be saved — or somehow not know her own baby if he was switched or would save one child but not another is just ... unfathomable.

Maybe she did not give her baby to Varys, I have a hard time believing this. That Elia could have trusted her best friend Ashara with her son, that I can believe. Maybe Varys stole the child, or influenced Ashara after Elia was killed that giving him the child was the best thing for the child.

[Nagisa Furukawa]

Buried Treasure, on 28 February 2012 - 06:22 PM, said:

I don't accept the arguement that the GC would only back a Blackfyre not a Targaryen - they discuss the possibility of going East to support Dany.

In A Dance with Dragons, there's a paragraph from Dany's POV that says: "Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him. Dany had only been a little girl, but she remembered." If they were truly willing to help a Targaryen get the throne they would've done so for him.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Ok here's another angle to it. Assuming Varys could somehow know the sack was coming, that the baby would be unrecognizable, and could somehow convince Elia to give him her child or trick her with a fake baby, why bother switching babies? Isn't the whole point just to smuggle the heir out? Indeed, if the heir gets away and people know it you don't have as much a problem of trying to prove later that the kid is really the heir.

What is gained by the baby-switch? Aegon gets to go off to Pentos in secret...so what? Varys has managed to secretly whisk away Jon Connington, Barristan Selmy, and Tyrion Lannister without having to set up fake stand ins to have their heads smashed in. It seems like if the idea is just to get Aegon away and keep him secret, no fake baby needs to have his head smashed in for this to happen. It looks like it would actually even be better for people to know that Aegon was never found and killed!

Edited by OnionAhaiReborn, 29 February 2012 - 04:27 PM.

[FanTasy]

Apple Martini, on 29 February 2012 - 04:21 PM, said:

[/i]
You can smother a child and even stab them without destroying their face.

True. I wonder though who - in the chaos and destruction of the sack, would investigate closely. Who was left to harbor suspicions?
The children were presented to Robert covered in a Lannister mantle / cloak, if I recall correctly? No one is described to walk towards it, uncover the bodies and check.

[Sasha Steelsong]

the Scorpion Knight, on 29 February 2012 - 04:07 PM, said:

when you consider tywin instead of the mountain (he said to tyrion himself he wanted the kids DEAD, he even refused to give the mountain do dorne) and  the chaos during a sack it makes much more plausible

No not really.  First off finding a child that looked like a Targ on the fly is basically impossible, so unless the switch was planned for a while (extremely unlikely) there would be no baby ready to replace Aegon just hanging around.  Second, the fact that Tywin wanted the kids dead doesn't change anything for two reasons.

1) Varys was as shocked as anyone and entirely unprepared for Tywin to take the city, they all thought Tywin was going to help defend KL not sack it.
2) It is the way that the child died...the fact that his skull was caved in so the only thing people could see was the hair...not just the fact that he died..that matters.  And even knowing that Tywin might not be fighting for Aerys (which Varys didn't know) there is no way to predict that Tywin would want the kid's head smashed in.  In fact if Tywin was planning it, he likely would have wanted the boy's face whole PRECISELY so someone couldn't pop up a decade and a half later and say...I'm Aegon.