468 replies to this topic

[House Mauldania]

I got this from somewhere on this board before I registered. I don't know who I stole it from but I liked it and saved it to my computer.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons sees the appearance of Aegon Targaryen, supposedly the surviving son of Rhaegar and Elia Martell. The young prince is about the right age and has Targaryen features, so his claim is generally accepted by those who hear it.

There's a reader-theory, though, that Aegon is actually a Blackfyre heir (and probably Illyrio's son) and not a Targaryen. Some evidence for this theory:
The Golden Company, a mercenary group founded by Blackfyre survivors with the express purpose of eventually seating a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne, is supporting Aegon's claim.

Although we're told that the Blackfyre's "male line" has died out, the odd specificity of this statement combined with the physical description of Illyrio's late wife seems to imply that the female line survived.

The backstory of Robert's Rebellion suggests that Varys was feeding King Aerys's paranoia by claiming that Prince Rhaegar was attempting to organize lords to help depose him. This probably played a role in ensuring a violent transition of power, eventually eliminating (almost) the Targaryen line. If Varys is a Targ loyalist, this seems like a pretty bad move; as a Blackfyre supporter, though, his actions make perfect sense.

None of that is new, but yesterday I was rereading A Feast for Crows and found a passage that seems to foreshadow Aegon's appearance in ADwD, specifically supporting the Blackfyre angle. In Brienne 7, Septon Meribald explains the history of "The Old Inn:"
"...He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon."
"Is the dragon sign still there?" asked Podrick.
"No," said Septon Meribald. "When the smith's son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sign of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign to pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon's heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust."
Targaryens use a red dragon as their sigil; a black dragon is the sigil of house Blackfyre. After their defeat, the Blackfyres were diminished in number and forced across the narrow sea ("[he] hacked the [black dragon] to pieces, and cast them into the river"). Could this passage foreshadow the reappearance of a Blackfyre heir ("one of the dragon's heads") on Westeros's Western shore, whom - given the amount of time since Blackfyres were defeated - everyone takes for a Targaryen instead ("by that time it was red with rust")?

I think this is a definitely one of those clues and I think it's about Aegon. I could be wrong and wouldn't mind if Aegon was the 'read deal'.

Edited by House Mauldania, 02 March 2012 - 07:07 PM.

[Lord of the Night]

I believe he's real. Aegon is a real Targaryen and will likely become an even better king than Rhaegar would have been.


LotN

Edited by Lord of the Night, 02 March 2012 - 07:07 PM.

[Buried Treasure]

A lot of posts in this thread seem to be positing that Aegon is either a Blackfyre or a Targaryen, and that if you cannot prove he is one he must be the other. This is entirely overlooking the posibility that he may be a boy of no significant birth.

If we go back to the Princes in the Tower parallel that clued many of us (myself included) into the possibility Aegon might be fake - neither Perkin Walbeck nor Lambert Simnel  were of significant birth.

I don't know why Varys would want a fake Aegon on the throne of Westeros, but the whole point is we do not understand Varys' motives:
- greed for money / power seems an unlikely as it does not seem that Varys is close enough to Aegon to have any more direct influence over him than he had over Aerys or Robert.
- the good of the smallfolk is a poor explanation when Varys has furthered his schemes by prolonging wars and ordering the mutilation (& subsequent early death) of hundreds of young children (the birds).
- he cannot be truly loyal to the Targaryens as he has been willing to sacrifice Aerys, Viserys and Dany at various times.
- he seems unaware of any tPwP prophecies and does not appear to be acting to further those.

- One of the few things Varys said that I do believe is that he hates magic because of the sorcerer who cut his balls off. My best speculation is that perhaps he wants a non-Targ ruler of Westeros in order to somehow eliminate magic? Westeros is a good place to start such a goal because until a couple of years ago it had less magic than Essos (where maegi seem common) and the maesters were already independently working against magic. I'm not pushing this theory hard but it's my only guess and I'm wondering how far we could spin out this thought.

I left out the possibility of Varys as a Blackfyre loyalist because I believe there are no more Blackfyres. The Blackfyres were essentially hereditary rulers of the Golden Company and I do not see how the family can continue to exist and no longer be known to the company. The GC may have been weakened after the war of the Ninepenny Kings but it was not broken entirely or it would not exist now.

Edited by Buried Treasure, 02 March 2012 - 08:16 PM.

[kg1982]

Quote

I left out the possibility of Varys as a Blackfyre loyalist because I believe there are no more Blackfyres. The Blackfyres were essentially hereditary rulers of the Golden Company and I do not see how the family can continue to exist and no longer be known to the company. The GC may have been weakened after the war of the Ninepenny Kings but it was not broken entirely or it would not exist now.

I think that Aegon's Blackfrye blood is known by the company.  That is why the Golden Company broke its contract.  The only person who doesn't know what is going on is Aegon himself (probably won't care when he is told however) and Jon Connington.. who is being used as a pawn to vouch for Aegon's supposed identity.

[Buried Treasure]

kg1982, on 02 March 2012 - 09:37 PM, said:

I think that Aegon's Blackfrye blood is known by the company.  That is why the Golden Company broke its contract.  The only person who doesn't know what is going on is Aegon himself (probably won't care when he is told however) and Jon Connington.. who is being used as a pawn to vouch for Aegon's supposed identity.

How did the Blackfyre heir get seperated?
Going by the main theory of Serra was a Blackfyre – somewhere between 20 and 40 years ago Serra or one of her parents got taken by a slaver. An important Blackyre would be ransomed back to the GC. The GC might not have cared enough to protect or pay for a bastard or a distant cousin, but if they are that far off the main branch of the family they would not be a Blackfyre anymore than the Vale cousins are Starks.

How would the secret Blackfyre become known to GC?
Serra was sold as a common bedslave so the her supposed Blackfyre identity could not have been known. Did Illyrio send a secret message to the GC saying ‘my son is the last Blackfyre heir’ & why should they have believed him?

Does what we see of the GC in AdwD suggest they are in on a secret Blackfyre plot?
We are told they had a contract in the disputed lands > Harry strickland ordered them to Volantis without explaining why > whilst waiting they receieved offers from the Yunkai and Harry explained about Aegon to prevent the officers wanting to fight Dany > they debate routes for going to support Dany > Until Aegon says they don’t need to go east, they can follow his lead to Westeros.

Secrets get out, the Aegon plot was known to only one or two senior officers before they arrived in Volantis – the officer corps as a whole knew of this only for a few short weeks. If there was also a Blackfyre plot that could have still been only known to a handful of men or it would have leaked. So either way the most of the officers of the Golden Company could not have known the reason when they broke their contract.

[LuisDantas]

There is perhaps a chance that Varys wants to put Aegon in power because he knows that he is a fake and can prove it.

Having the power to expose the Monarch's illegitimacy might make him powerful, perhaps even the true power behind the throne.  An added benefit is that challengers will hopefully target his proxy as opposed to himself.

I'm not really convinced that such an scenario is likely, but far as I can tell there is no reason why it can't be true.

[irishtemper]

LuisDantas, on 03 March 2012 - 01:52 AM, said:

There is perhaps a chance that Varys wants to put Aegon in power because he knows that he is a fake and can prove it.

Having the power to expose the Monarch's illegitimacy might make him powerful, perhaps even the true power behind the throne.  An added benefit is that challengers will hopefully target his proxy as opposed to himself.

I'm not really convinced that such an scenario is likely, but far as I can tell there is no reason why it can't be true.

But that's already the present situation with there being an illegitimate king already.

[Silmarien]

Lord of the Night, on 02 March 2012 - 07:07 PM, said:

I believe he's real. Aegon is a real Targaryen and will likely become an even better king than Rhaegar would have been.


LotN

We don't even know him that well, how can you make this assumption?  All we know is that he's bossy (demands to lead the attack on Storm's End), and that when he loses a game of cyvasse he throws a fit and yells at Tyrion to clean up his mess.  Doesn't sound like the makings of a great King to me, sorry.  We need more information about his character before that assumption can be made, IMHO.

[Valkyrist]

Here's a question: Why would the Golden Company, a militia founded by Blackfyre supporters, champion a Targaryen's claim to the throne, and fight a war to restore their enemies house to power? The Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel, and his skull was carried with them in the invasion into Westeros. Bittersteel hated the Targaryen's. Young Griff is a Blackfyre, whether Connington knows it or not. I wouldn't be surprised if Arys or Ilyrio are his father.

Edited by Valkyrist, 03 March 2012 - 03:41 AM.

[The Drunkard]

Valkyrist, on 03 March 2012 - 03:39 AM, said:

Here's a question: Why would the Golden Company, a militia founded by Blackfyre supporters, champion a Targaryen's claim to the throne, and fight a war to restore their enemies house to power? The Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel, and his skull was carried with them in the invasion into Westeros. Bittersteel hated the Targaryen's. Young Griff is a Blackfyre, whether Connington knows it or not. I wouldn't be surprised if Arys or Ilyrio are his father.

They could just be in it for the money/titles they've been promised. A lot of them probably don't give a damn what people from generations ago fought for.

[Ygrain]

irishtemper, on 03 March 2012 - 02:44 AM, said:

But that's already the present situation with there being an illegitimate king already.

Yeah but so far, it has never been confirmed with a proof; for all everyone knows, it can be just a malevolent fabrication of Stannis'.

[David Selig]

LuisDantas, on 03 March 2012 - 01:52 AM, said:

There is perhaps a chance that Varys wants to put Aegon in power because he knows that he is a fake and can prove it.

Having the power to expose the Monarch's illegitimacy might make him powerful, perhaps even the true power behind the throne.  An added benefit is that challengers will hopefully target his proxy as opposed to himself.

I'm not really convinced that such an scenario is likely, but far as I can tell there is no reason why it can't be true.

How would such a thing be proven? I don't see a realistic way which can convince enough people to turn against the King.

[Silmarien]

Ygrain, on 03 March 2012 - 04:28 AM, said:

Yeah but so far, it has never been confirmed with a proof; for all everyone knows, it can be just a malevolent fabrication of Stannis'.

Then why did Varys save Gendry, Robert's bastard?  He couldn't have saved all of them (Cersei would've become mighty suspicious).  Sounds like he was doing what Stannis was with Edric Storm - keeping a bastard of Robert around to prove that Cersei's kids aren't Robert's, and are bastards.

Hell, the Tyrells know exactly what is going on.  Olenna even remarks that in her day the husband used his FATHER'S cloak, not his mother's.  A bold remark indeed.  And she says to Sansa, "Tell me about this Joffrey, who claims to be a Baratheon but looks so very much a Lannister."  (paraphrase).  They knew.  Even the KL people knew, they call Cersei "brotherfucker!"

ETA:  Add to that, Margery catching Cersei in a fumble - when she claims Tommen's father was a great tourney champion.  "Oh, which tourneys did Robert win?"  Cersei: "Erm, uh, well, Robert liked the melee....and won the tourney at...at....the Vale!" (paraphrased that convo, don't think he won the Vale tourney either, but it goes pretty much like that in the book).

HA!  Nice one.

Edited by Silmarien, 03 March 2012 - 05:55 AM.

[Ygrain]

Silmarien, on 03 March 2012 - 05:48 AM, said:

Then why did Varys save Gendry, Robert's bastard?  He couldn't have saved all of them (Cersei would've become mighty suspicious).  Sounds like he was doing what Stannis was with Edric Storm - keeping a bastard of Robert around to prove that Cersei's kids aren't Robert's, and are bastards.

Hell, the Tyrells know exactly what is going on.  Olenna even remarks that in her day the husband used his FATHER'S cloak, not his mother's.  A bold remark indeed.  And she says to Sansa, "Tell me about this Joffrey, who claims to be a Baratheon but looks so very much a Lannister."  (paraphrase).  They knew.  Even the KL people knew, they call Cersei "brotherfucker!"

I agree that Varys definitely didn't save Gendry out of kindness, and your reasoning seems plausible.
Knowing and presenting publicly evidence are two different things. The folk of KL had little love for Cersei, and as such were prone to believe the worst of her. However, cutting down the support of nobles would require more than just some juicy gossip, and no attempt at presenting proof has been done so far.

Silmarien, on 03 March 2012 - 05:48 AM, said:

ETA:  Add to that, Margery catching Cersei in a fumble - when she claims Tommen's father was a great tourney champion.  "Oh, which tourneys did Robert win?"  Cersei: "Erm, uh, well, Robert liked the melee....and won the tourney at...at....the Vale!" (paraphrased that convo, don't think he won the Vale tourney either, but it goes pretty much like that in the book).

HA!  Nice one.

Yeah, that was a wonderful slip of tongue

[kg1982]

The Drunkard, on 03 March 2012 - 04:26 AM, said:

They could just be in it for the money/titles they've been promised. A lot of them probably don't give a damn what people from generations ago fought for.

Then why not declare for Viserys who could have provided them with the same money and titles years earlier

[Nymphetamine]

The Drunkard, on 03 March 2012 - 04:26 AM, said:

They could just be in it for the money/titles they've been promised. A lot of them probably don't give a damn what people from generations ago fought for.

If they only wanted money/titles they could have just declared for Viserys earlier.

Illyrio even spells it out for us, "some contracts are writ in blood." Why would the Blackfyre loyalist GC break a contract for the first time to go support a Targaryen, the Blackfyre's sworn enemy?

Edited by Nymphetamine, 03 March 2012 - 10:30 AM.

[Dark Rider]

260 AL Maelys Blackfyre attempts an invasion of Westeros is defeated in the War of the Nine Penny Kings.

Ten years late in 270 it becomes apparent that King Aerys is starting to have mental issues. His capture by Lord Darklyn at Duskendale is what turns him into a paranoid schizophrenic. It would appear that Aerys then takes into service Varys and according to Ser Barristan Selmy the rot in his reign began upon doing so.

Varys is connected to a sell-sword turned merchant Illyrio.  My guess is that as a sellsword Illyrio was connected to the Gold Company at some point and as the Gold Company has heavy connections to the Blackfyres is a Blackfyre himself or a supporter of theirs. In fact, I believe it is highly possible that the wife of Illyrio was a Blackfyre who gave birth to Griff.

Varys sole goal from the start of his service to King Aerys was to push the realm into chaos.

[The Unborn]

Silmarien, on 03 March 2012 - 02:48 AM, said:

We don't even know him that well, how can you make this assumption?  All we know is that he's bossy (demands to lead the attack on Storm's End), and that when he loses a game of cyvasse he throws a fit and yells at Tyrion to clean up his mess.  Doesn't sound like the makings of a great King to me, sorry.  We need more information about his character before that assumption can be made, IMHO.

He's bossy because he wants to lead the battle? He's knows you can't be a king if you don't lead your own battles and he needs to be seen. That doesn't make him bossy at all.
He's an ass because he makes Tyrion clean up his mess, but that doesn't make him a bad king.

[Buried Treasure]

The Unborn, on 03 March 2012 - 10:47 AM, said:

He's bossy because he wants to lead the battle? He's knows you can't be a king if you don't lead your own battles and he needs to be seen. That doesn't make him bossy at all.
He's an ass because he makes Tyrion clean up his mess, but that doesn't make him a bad king.

It's true that's not enough to say he would definately be a bad king, but it is sufficient to say he has not yet proven he will be the best king we have seen.

Valkyrist, on 03 March 2012 - 03:39 AM, said:

Here's a question: Why would the Golden Company, a militia founded by Blackfyre supporters, champion a Targaryen's claim to the throne, and fight a war to restore their enemies house to power? The Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel, and his skull was carried with them in the invasion into Westeros. Bittersteel hated the Targaryen's. Young Griff is a Blackfyre, whether Connington knows it or not. I wouldn't be surprised if Arys or Ilyrio are his father.

The Golden Company that we meet in ADwD don't seem to be particularly motivated by any strong feelings for the Targaryens. It seems that they were considering taking a contract from the Yunkai to fight against  Dany, then in the meeting we witness through Jon C. they are planning to fight for her.

They mostly seem keen on getting back to Westeros, and I don't blame them. After 100 years (4 or 5 generations?) they are known as the most honourable sellswords in the world, but they are hardly Westerosi Lords. In another couple of generations they won't even be Westerosi at all and no different to any other sellsword company.

Dark Rider, on 03 March 2012 - 10:35 AM, said:

260 AL Maelys Blackfyre attempts an invasion of Westeros is defeated in the War of the Nine Penny Kings.

Ten years late in 270 it becomes apparent that King Aerys is starting to have mental issues. His capture by Lord Darklyn at Duskendale is what turns him into a paranoid schizophrenic. It would appear that Aerys then takes into service Varys and according to Ser Barristan Selmy the rot in his reign began upon doing so.

Varys is connected to a sell-sword turned merchant Illyrio.  My guess is that as a sellsword Illyrio was connected to the Gold Company at some point and as the Gold Company has heavy connections to the Blackfyres is a Blackfyre himself or a supporter of theirs. In fact, I believe it is highly possible that the wife of Illyrio was a Blackfyre who gave birth to Griff.

Varys sole goal from the start of his service to King Aerys was to push the realm into chaos.

Why do you believe it is highly possible Serra was a Blackfyre with connections to the GC when she was sold as a common bed-slave?

[Nymphetamine]

Buried Treasure, on 03 March 2012 - 11:35 AM, said:

Why do you believe it is highly possible Serra was a Blackfyre with connections to the GC when she was sold as a common bed-slave?

Because becoming a slave in Essos is incredibly easy. Dany herself was threatened with being sold into slavery. It isn't hard to believe that somewhere down the line a Blackfyre descendant became a slave.