hombay, on 12 March 2012 - 06:11 AM, said:
I believe we will never be explicitly told whether or not Aegon is real.
I'm not so certain. I certainly believe we have not been given enough information at this point in the story
to categorically state whether or not he is real. I believe that is a narrative choice by GRRM - just as in a serialised murder mystery the author usually chooses not to reveal the murderer mid-way, but normally does so by the end.
There were hints of 'did Aegon survive?' in the first books, but this is this is the first book where it was explicitly brought up. In-story a couple of characters idly wondered whether the Aegon we met is real, but it wasn't really important as these characters had reasons to be supporting him anyway (Tyrion had nothing else, the GC want to end their exile & are being paid anyway) The question of whether he is real is likely to key to the decisions some (of the more honourable) characters make in the next book so it makes sense that George would want the reader to be asking the question at the same time.
Aegon being fake is not the same as Aegon being a Blackfyre.
However, strictly through an analytical point of view, everything in the novels point towards him being fake, ranging from the mummer's dragon to Tyrion on the boat. If a writer has so many clues regarding a characters true identity I believe it would be outrageous if he were not a Blackfyre. Martin is too good of a writer to muck that up.
I agree about the hints that point to Aegon being fake, but in your post you do not present any evidence for him being a Blackfyre. As a non-believer in Aegon = Blackfyre what I hate in arguing against it is that it is not a
theory it is many different theories with a common element - and I never know which one any given Blackfyre proponent favours.
What is the scenario you believe that took the Blackfyres from the Stepstones to impersonating a dead boy? Do you believe it was through Illyrio's wife? Do you think it was coincedence that Varys was in Westeros when his bff married a Blackfye, or do you think Varys was already a Blackfyre supporter when he was hired by Aerys? Do you believe Aegon is legitimate or that he merely has Blackfyre blood? What in the books makes you think all these things?...
For the record, this is roughly what I think happened:
1)Gregor killed Aegon.
2)Varys realised that due to the manor of Aegon's death an imposter could not be absolutely disproved. A possible Aegon could prove a useful pawn at a later stage, at the very least it gives more options for new plans to be developed in the future.
3) Illyrio searched Essos for a boy of the correct age and colouring. He would not require a perfect match as there are (obviously) no photographs of Rhaegar or Elia and memory is fallible. He had about 4 years to conduct the search (time from Aegon dying to Jon C meeting fake). Illyrio took the boy in for fostering (hence his fondness) and his wife may have become the new Aegon's foster mother* (doubly explains Illyio's sadness).
4) Varys tries to manufacture proof that the new Aegon is real. He decides to recruit Jon C to raise Aegon in the belief he is really Rhaegar's son. Jon C joins Illyrio's household for a time;
- I think the clothes Tyrion wore must have been for a boy older than 5.
- Illyrio spoke as if he knew Griff.
5)Jon C & Aegon leave Illyrio's household, not sure exactly when or why. It may have been a longstanding part of the plan to raise Aegon on a poleboat for the full 'storytale prince' effect or he may have been sent away to avoid the grey plague. If they lived with Illyrio a long time then they may have not left until shortly before Illyrio took in Dany & Viserys.
*I don't believe Illyrio and Serra were married & had a son they used to fake Aegon. It would be a coincidence if he were the correct age and doesn't work with the opportunistic motive I believe Varys had. I do not know when Illyio purchased Serra but I think it may
be possible that he purchased Serra & Aegon as a package deal. He may have wanted to examine the mother to help him select the right look in the child, and then fallen in love with her later.