468 replies to this topic

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Fire and Blood!, on 18 March 2012 - 03:54 PM, said:

I think a more appropriate question is "Why so many people want Aegon to be fake?", because after all there is no real proof so everyone belives what he personally wants to.Personally I am surprised there is so much scepticism about him.

This is a really pointless comment. You're posting on page 21 of a thread in which people have gone over and debated the arguments for him being fake or real, and of people debating whether, if he is fake, he is a Blackfyre or not. You're not making any comment on the evidence put forth and the arguments made, and instead you are ignoring it and just saying everyone who believes he is fake does so just because they want to. If you want to see the evidence and talk about it, go back and read.

It's fine if you don't believe the evidence, but it's really absurd to say that people only believe he is fake because they want to believe he is fake. There are several things to suggest he is fake, maybe they're all red herrings, I can't say for sure but I highly doubt it. Either way, it's absurd to suggest there is no reason to believe Aegon is fake. We've been discussing the reasons for 21 pages!  I can't speak to what people 'want' to believe, but that has no affect on the many pieces of evidence that can be brought up and talked over.

Edited by OnionAhaiReborn, 18 March 2012 - 04:11 PM.

[protar]

Fire and Blood!, on 18 March 2012 - 03:54 PM, said:

I think a more appropriate question is "Why so many people want Aegon to be fake?", because after all there is no real proof so everyone belives what he personally wants to.Personally I am surprised there is so much scepticism about him.

Sarcasm? Geuninely curious?

[A Free Shadow]

Fire and Blood!, on 18 March 2012 - 03:54 PM, said:

I think a more appropriate question is "Why so many people want Aegon to be fake?", because after all there is no real proof so everyone belives what he personally wants to.Personally I am surprised there is so much scepticism about him.

The only thing that speaks for Aegon being real is that Varys says so. If you trust Varys, I guess you deserve what you get   
Answers to bigger mysteries are never spelled out in these books, you must piece clues together and another group of readers "deserved" their answer that way. Were are tones of evidence of Aegon being a fake, all against Varys word.

There was a great thread sometime back about "Hidden truths vs lies spoken straight out" or something like that.

[Teal'c]

gramblor, on 28 February 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:

Septa Lemore is Elia of Dorne

You heard it hear first.

Teal, on 16 March 2012 - 10:17 AM, said:

I have a possible answer but this is part of my crackpot theory. The Ashara suicide is staged to explain why she is missing. She is either Septa Lemore, or she died in Elia Martell's place and Elia is Septa Lemore. I suspect that Princess Rhaenys was also switched out as well. It doesn't make sense to me to have Rhaegar being so focused about the importanance of three heads for the dragon and then not protect all three of his children, unless he was thinking of himself and his two sons as the three heads of the dragon.

I doubt either one of us thought of it first, but I agree the Septa Lemore MIGHT be Elia. It would be one explanation of the animosity between her and Conington, that he is jealous because she got Rhaegar. This would be the only way anyone could prove that YG is really Aegon, if Lemore is his mother. I don't happen to think that YG is the real Aegon. Although an admirable young man, the presentation of his character is too direct, and I think George always makes us work harder than this to figure things out.

[Fire and Blood!]

OnionAhaiReborn, on 18 March 2012 - 04:09 PM, said:

This is a really pointless comment. You're posting on page 21 of a thread in which people have gone over and debated the arguments for him being fake or real, and of people debating whether, if he is fake, he is a Blackfyre or not. You're not making any comment on the evidence put forth and the arguments made, and instead you are ignoring it and just saying everyone who believes he is fake does so just because they want to. If you want to see the evidence and talk about it, go back and read.

It's fine if you don't believe the evidence, but it's really absurd to say that people only believe he is fake because they want to believe he is fake. There are several things to suggest he is fake, maybe they're all red herrings, I can't say for sure but I highly doubt it. Either way, it's absurd to suggest there is no reason to believe Aegon is fake. We've been discussing the reasons for 21 pages!  I can't speak to what people 'want' to believe, but that has no affect on the many pieces of evidence that can be brought up and talked over.

Actually I have posted on this thread before and expressed my opinion on the so called "evidance" if you want "go back and reed" it.Also I am not saying there is no reason to suspect him being fake but that there is no reason to belive it as firmly as many people do.

[Malgarroth]

I must have heard this argument a hundred times, and each time I feel i can dismiss each point.

Mummer's Dragon = Varys' Dragon, his piece on the board.

"Iliryo has a strong emotional attachment to Aegon." - Wouldn't you if you'd raised a child for most of his life? *Cough*Ned*Cough*

"Baby switch only works in hindsight" - You really think people would have said "Hey! He looks nothing like that dead baby we saw almost two decades ago!" if Aegon's face hadn't been messed up?
I wasn't aware that the people who saw the corpses had eidetic memories.

I've paid special attention to the Aegon/Young Griff chapters during my last read through, combing for anything that could convince me he's not the real deal. I failed in my search.

"Varys is a Blackfyre and has been undermining the Targs since the beginning."..."Varys contributed to Aerys' madness"

That Varys contributed to Dany's Dad going nuts, was an opinion. Powerful people's enemies in ASoIAF are often demonized in order to make their own cause seem more just. This happened a lot between the major players in CoK. I thought it had been established that his imprisonment had sent him over the edge.

And if he wanted to undermine the Targaryens, he would have won that fight at the Sack of Kings Landing when Robert took the throne. If he really was a Blackfyre trying to undermine the Targs he wouldn't be sending the "Blackfyre Pretender" off to marry the Targaryen. If he believed in bringing down the Targs, he would have had the dragons killed at a very early stage in the game (he's quite influential) and leave Dany to suck it.

Does it matter anyway? Even if he is a head of the dragon, and gets his hands on Rhaegal (because I really want Jon to have Viserion, a white wolf and a white dragon for Lord Snow.), Dany will still kill him.

She won't want to marry him, she likes her men darker and rougher than a Targaryen. (Jon? Though he's most probably Aegon's brother, he don't look like no Targaryen.) And in that case he'll become a rival for the Iron Throne. She'll take him out.

And I think her relationship with Viserys would probably sour how she saw Aegon. (Viserys looks like a skinnier younger Rhaegar according to HoTU, Aegon will probably resemble Rhaegar, therefore Aegon may look like his uncle)

Come to think of it, maybe that's where we find out if he's real or not; when Aegon and Daenerys meet.

She saw Rhaegar and baby Aegon recently, in the HoTU. She'll know.

And if he is fake then in Dany's capacity as Slayer of Lies, I imagine it'll go something like:

"Drogon, burn!"

Drogon blasts Aegon with fire, he turns to ash.

"Fire cannot kill a dragon."

Edited by Malgarroth, 11 May 2012 - 06:41 PM.

[Apple Martini]

Malgarroth, on 11 May 2012 - 06:30 PM, said:

And if he is fake then in Dany's capacity as Slayer of Lies, I imagine it'll go something like:

"Drogon, burn!"

Drogon blasts Aegon with fire, he turns to ash.

"Fire cannot kill a dragon."

I assume you're referring to the (incorrect) idea that dragonfire won't hurt a "real" Targaryen. Except that if Aegon is a Blackfyre, he's just as much of a Valyrian as Dany, if not more more of one, depending on how the Blackfyres married while in exile. So if dragonfire wouldn't hurt a Targaryen (which it can), it wouldn't hurt a Blackfyre. In other words, Aegon getting roasted does not in and of itself prove anything one way or the other.

[Malgarroth]

Apple Martini, on 11 May 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

I assume you're referring to the (incorrect) idea that dragonfire won't hurt a "real" Targaryen. Except that if Aegon is a Blackfyre, he's just as much of a Valyrian as Dany, if not more more of one, depending on how the Blackfyres married while in exile. So if dragonfire wouldn't hurt a Targaryen (which it can), it wouldn't hurt a Blackfyre. In other words, Aegon getting roasted does not in and of itself prove anything one way or the other.

Yes, I was referring to the incorrect assumption that Targs are immune to fire. It was a joke...

Hence the little "" at the end.

Damn.

[Buried Treasure]

It's interesting to see this topic revived, there just seems such a clash between those whose default setting is that Aegon is real and evidence needs to be provided to prove he is fake and those of us who are skeptical and are asking for evidence that he is real.

Myself, I always think that in real life people who turn up out of nowhere claiming a large inheritance are asked to prove who they say they are. If I found a wallet stuffed with cash on the street and a passerby saw me pick it up they might tell me it their's. They could be telling the truth - it is certainly not mine - but I would probably flick it open and check the photo ID before handing it back. To my mind, anybody accepting Aegon as the real thing at this point hasn't even given the photo a cursory glance.

[Apple Martini]

Buried Treasure, on 11 May 2012 - 07:29 PM, said:

It's interesting to see this topic revived, there just seems such a clash between those whose default setting is that Aegon is real and evidence needs to be provided to prove he is fake and those of us who are skeptical and are asking for evidence that he is real.

Myself, I always think that in real life people who turn up out of nowhere claiming a large inheritance are asked to prove who they say they are. If I found a wallet stuffed with cash on the street and a passerby saw me pick it up they might tell me it their's. They could be telling the truth - it is certainly not mine - but I would probably flick it open and check the photo ID before handing it back. To my mind, anybody accepting Aegon as the real thing at this point hasn't even given the photo a cursory glance.

The inheritance thing is a good analogy. Right now, a lot of people are willing to fork over a stacked bank account because, "Well he looks like he's supposed to and this one guy says it's him, so good enough!"

[Malgarroth]

Buried Treasure, on 11 May 2012 - 07:29 PM, said:

It's interesting to see this topic revived, there just seems such a clash between those whose default setting is that Aegon is real and evidence needs to be provided to prove he is fake and those of us who are skeptical and are asking for evidence that he is real.

Myself, I always think that in real life people who turn up out of nowhere claiming a large inheritance are asked to prove who they say they are. If I found a wallet stuffed with cash on the street and a passerby saw me pick it up they might tell me it their's. They could be telling the truth - it is certainly not mine - but I would probably flick it open and check the photo ID before handing it back. To my mind, anybody accepting Aegon as the real thing at this point hasn't even given the photo a cursory glance.

I think it stems from the way people see the series ending.

I see it like this (Opinion alert!)

Some fans see the dark cynicism of the series thus far continuing right to the finish where prophecy gets fulfilled, but nobody gets what they really want and most of them die.

Some see a light at the end of a very dark tunnel and think there will be a triumph sort of in a Tolkien vein.

There are infinite various intermittent views on how the series ends but there are the extremes that I see between the fans of the series.

I'm leaning towards the latter. The magical element has been building and building singe the birth of the dragons and now we're at (to quote Gandalf) the deep breath before the plunge, the world is right on the edge of changing massively, the Hand of The King is dead (what's new?), Jon snow is about to have his destiny uncovered (whether it be death or AA) we're having a new man in charge of the wall either way, Daenerys is riding Drogon andthe war with the Others is coming soon, the people of Westeros will be fighting monsters of legend, some truly legendary people are going to need to arise to defeat them. I expect a big finish that (I hope) has me putting down A Dream of Spring with a smile on my face.

And that's what's so exciting to me, about reading this series as it unfolds with YEARS between their releases, that we have time to stop and argue the toss about our vision of the end. Imagine if the internet existed at the time LoTR was being released and we had to wait a good few years between each of the six parts (Anyone whose not read it, each book is further split into two more books, making six parts minus appendices) We'd be at the end of the first half of RoTK saying shit like "We can't expect Frodo to just drop the ring into the volcano, Tolkien does things differently, he's a revolutionary" The exact same thing is happening now, these books are going to be talked about for generations, but we get to read them as they are released, giving us time to build these theories and explore them, and exchange them, and change them if other people convince us otherwise.

Waaay off on a tangent there, but it's worth bearing in mind, within the next tiny slice of the history, in which these books exist (6 to 10 years I guess until the end) these conversations will never happen again. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Edited by Malgarroth, 11 May 2012 - 08:05 PM.

[Somnus]

I do believe Aegon is the real deal.

The vision in THotU don't have to correspond to the way the actual events take place, but the meaning and message are true. Nor have they to be overly cryptic.

The prophecy about the Red Wedding was right in our face. The vision itself didn't show how the events actually came down, but the message was clear and true. "A Stark king will die during a banquet". And it happened.

The vision with Rhaegar IMO, was also not accurately real with what really happened when Aegon was born. Unlike the Mad King's vision, the Rhaegar of Dany's vision watches her, just like the dead Wolf King watched Daenerys. This is not a "replay", Rhaegar is adressing Daenerys herself. He says how Aegon is one of the three heads, and Daenerys could comprehend it (if she knew Aegon was alive) and mentions there's still one left. To Danerys this makes sense, she's the 1st head, now Rhaegar is informing her that his son is the second and that there is a third that she has not met yet. (That IMO must be Jon Snow).

About the Golden Company, Illyrio and Varys:

If the Golden Company was that bent on putting Aegon in the Iron Throne because he was a Blackfyre, then why are they and Aegon wishing to join forces with Daenerys ? They just went on ahead without her to look a little better when she actually arrives.

Also we don't know what Varys truly wants, but I do think it is very weird for him to confess to Kevan Lannister that the true Aegon is coming.What is the point of that if Aegon was a Blackfyre ? Why lie to a dying man ?

About Illyrio, from that one I get the feeling that he just wants to be "close friend" of the Targaryen that actually sits on the iron throne. Why didn't he help Viserys accordingly, nor told him about Aegon ? My guess is that he could see that betting on Viserys was going to be a bad choice, so he just dumped him to the Dothraki and let the pieces fall where they may. Viserys was killed and Daenarys showed that she had what it took to be queen and even hatched her dragons, so he sent Belwas to collect his "ticket to power" again. I think he is just trying to become more powerful and so he puts his faith on the Targaryens that look like they could pay off and ditch those that have no potential whatsoever.

Also by calling Aegon the Mummer's Dragon, it doesn't mean he's a fake, it just means he's the pawn of a mummer.

[theguyfromtheVale]

Well, Dany lends Aegon a lot of legitimacy if she marries him. Simply put, Aegon might be fake, but Dany sure is not, so if she says Aegon's the real deal, he's in the Targ family. Also, Dany has dragons, and she wats to invade Westeros. So if you have a similar plan, but she has those weapons of mass destruction, do you join her, or do you go ahead and risk fighting her later on, when she has all those dragons under control?

Varys doesn't say Aegon is Aegon Targaryen, he only says he's 'Aegon'. That doesn't mean anything though.

Plus, "mummer's" always means fake in the novels - mummer's tears, for example. Even the mummer's dragon Dany sees is a fake dragon.

[kg1982]

Malgarroth, on 11 May 2012 - 08:01 PM, said:

I think it stems from the way people see the series ending.

I see it like this (Opinion alert!)

Some fans see the dark cynicism of the series thus far continuing right to the finish where prophecy gets fulfilled, but nobody gets what they really want and most of them die.

Some see a light at the end of a very dark tunnel and think there will be a triumph sort of in a Tolkien vein.

There are infinite various intermittent views on how the series ends but there are the extremes that I see between the fans of the series.

I'm leaning towards the latter. The magical element has been building and building singe the birth of the dragons and now we're at (to quote Gandalf) the deep breath before the plunge, the world is right on the edge of changing massively, the Hand of The King is dead (what's new?), Jon snow is about to have his destiny uncovered (whether it be death or AA) we're having a new man in charge of the wall either way, Daenerys is riding Drogon andthe war with the Others is coming soon, the people of Westeros will be fighting monsters of legend, some truly legendary people are going to need to arise to defeat them. I expect a big finish that (I hope) has me putting down A Dream of Spring with a smile on my face.

And that's what's so exciting to me, about reading this series as it unfolds with YEARS between their releases, that we have time to stop and argue the toss about our vision of the end. Imagine if the internet existed at the time LoTR was being released and we had to wait a good few years between each of the six parts (Anyone whose not read it, each book is further split into two more books, making six parts minus appendices) We'd be at the end of the first half of RoTK saying shit like "We can't expect Frodo to just drop the ring into the volcano, Tolkien does things differently, he's a revolutionary" The exact same thing is happening now, these books are going to be talked about for generations, but we get to read them as they are released, giving us time to build these theories and explore them, and exchange them, and change them if other people convince us otherwise.

Waaay off on a tangent there, but it's worth bearing in mind, within the next tiny slice of the history, in which these books exist (6 to 10 years I guess until the end) these conversations will never happen again. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Tolkien's ending was very bittersweet, considering that Frodo was so haunted by his experiences and ended up basically dying at the end.  I expect something like that will happen at the end of Dreams for Spring (Bran in a tree as a green seer likely outliving his family and never seeing them again and everyone else incredibly screwed up and scarred by their experiences).  However, I do expect the main protagonists to save the world.  

My theory about Aegon and the different reactions is that most of the posters who tend to believe that Aegon is real generally don't like either Dany or Jon.  People who do like Dany and Jon and want them to succeed rightly see Aegon as being Rhaegar's son as devaluing Dany and Jon's story arcs.  I happen to like both Dany and Jon, have rooted for them (and cringed at their many mistakes in ADWD), and want them to be the ones who save their world.  I don't want Aegon rallying the armies of Westros - I want Jon to get that moment.

[KingRichard]

I think he is the real Aegon. People look too hard for crazy twists because there have been so many in the previous books. That does not mean that everything that Martin writes is some form of misdirection. If it turns out that Aegon is real, that in itself is a big twist because he was supposed to be dead all this time.

[Stannis' sense of humour]

I think people want Aegon to be real because he's a much more exciting, entertaining character than dull, Danyeras.

[jlk7e]

Quote

"Baby switch only works in hindsight" - You really think people would have said "Hey! He looks nothing like that dead baby we saw almost two decades ago!" if Aegon's face hadn't been messed up?

Umm...you're missing the point.  If Clegane hadn't smashed the baby's face in, and it was a fake, people would have said "Hey! That dead baby is not actually Rhaegar's son Aegon - it's a different baby!"

At any rate, as others have said, the only evidence that Aegon is Rhaegar's son is that Varys and Illyrio say he is.  That's why Connington thinks he's Rhaegar's son, and that's why Aegon thinks he is.  Tyrion realizes not that he is Aegon, but that this is what Connington and Aegon (and presumably the rest of their entourage) believe.

I would add that the strongest reason for doubting he is Rhaegar's son is the structure of the narrative.  Why have we been spending so much time with Dany and Jon if the real Targaryen heir is some kid who we thought was dead for the entire first half of the series?  The reason to think he is fake, in fact, is that Martin isn't usually about huge twists like this, which make for dissatisfying storytelling.

Beyond that, the fact that Aegon is the "Mummer's Dragon" is pretty suggestive.  Yes, Varys is the mummer, and it could just mean "the Targaryen being pushed by Varys", but I think the connotation is very strongly that a mummer's dragon is a fake dragon.

[danm_999]

Why on earth if the baby switch was legit would Varys and his conspirators hide it for so long? It only hurts his legitimacy. It can't be for the child's safety, since there are already dispossessed Targaryens roaming the Free Cities (Daenerys and Viserys).

In ADWD Wyman Manderly demands that Davos retrieve Rickon and Shaggydog, because the wolf is going to prove his identity. Manderly is worried 4 year old Rickon is going to look enough like 5 year old Rickon!

Why would Varys and co think it was a good idea to make Aegon Targaryen reappear after 16, especially since he was only ever seen as a baby in Westeros?

Edited by danm_999, 12 May 2012 - 10:27 AM.

[the Scorpion Knight]

kg1982, on 12 May 2012 - 09:59 AM, said:

Tolkien's ending was very bittersweet, considering that Frodo was so haunted by his experiences and ended up basically dying at the end.  I expect something like that will happen at the end of Dreams for Spring (Bran in a tree as a green seer likely outliving his family and never seeing them again and everyone else incredibly screwed up and scarred by their experiences).  However, I do expect the main protagonists to save the world.  

My theory about Aegon and the different reactions is that most of the posters who tend to believe that Aegon is real generally don't like either Dany or Jon.  People who do like Dany and Jon and want them to succeed rightly see Aegon as being Rhaegar's son as devaluing Dany and Jon's story arcs.  I happen to like both Dany and Jon, have rooted for them (and cringed at their many mistakes in ADWD), and want them to be the ones who save their world.  I don't want Aegon rallying the armies of Westros - I want Jon to get that moment.

I have that feeling that Jon and aegon will get allong fine I think they'll have a http://tvtropes.org/...n/RedOniBlueOni dynamic
dany might be problematic IMHO might be forced to play the third fiddle

Edited by the Scorpion Knight, 12 May 2012 - 10:34 AM.

[houseHB]

He can be the real deal, but keep in mind Quaithe's prophecy.