I must have heard this argument a hundred times, and each time I feel i can dismiss each point.
Mummer's Dragon = Varys' Dragon, his piece on the board.
"Iliryo has a strong emotional attachment to Aegon." - Wouldn't you if you'd raised a child for most of his life? *Cough*Ned*Cough*
"Baby switch only works in hindsight" - You really think people would have said "Hey! He looks nothing like that dead baby we saw almost two decades ago!" if Aegon's face hadn't been messed up?
I wasn't aware that the people who saw the corpses had eidetic memories.
I've paid special attention to the Aegon/Young Griff chapters during my last read through, combing for anything that could convince me he's not the real deal. I failed in my search.
"Varys is a Blackfyre and has been undermining the Targs since the beginning."..."Varys contributed to Aerys' madness"
That Varys contributed to Dany's Dad going nuts, was an opinion. Powerful people's enemies in ASoIAF are often demonized in order to make their own cause seem more just. This happened a lot between the major players in CoK. I thought it had been established that his imprisonment had sent him over the edge.
And if he wanted to undermine the Targaryens, he would have won that fight at the Sack of Kings Landing when Robert took the throne. If he really was a Blackfyre trying to undermine the Targs he wouldn't be sending the "Blackfyre Pretender" off to marry the Targaryen. If he believed in bringing down the Targs, he would have had the dragons killed at a very early stage in the game (he's quite influential) and leave Dany to suck it.
Does it matter anyway? Even if he is a head of the dragon, and gets his hands on Rhaegal (because I really want Jon to have Viserion, a white wolf and a white dragon for Lord Snow.), Dany will still kill him.
She won't want to marry him, she likes her men darker and rougher than a Targaryen. (Jon? Though he's most probably Aegon's brother, he don't look like no Targaryen.) And in that case he'll become a rival for the Iron Throne. She'll take him out.
And I think her relationship with Viserys would probably sour how she saw Aegon. (Viserys looks like a skinnier younger Rhaegar according to HoTU, Aegon will probably resemble Rhaegar, therefore Aegon may look like his uncle)
Come to think of it, maybe that's where we find out if he's real or not; when Aegon and Daenerys meet.
She saw Rhaegar and baby Aegon recently, in the HoTU. She'll know.
And if he is fake then in Dany's capacity as Slayer of Lies, I imagine it'll go something like:
Drogon blasts Aegon with fire, he turns to ash.
"Fire cannot kill a dragon."
Edited by Malgarroth, 11 May 2012 - 06:41 PM.