73 replies to this topic

[Greebo]

I think we can all agree that Young Griff/Aegon is mummer's dragon from the prophecy, but that does not automatically mean that he is fake dragon (or dragon mummer), what it means it that he is either a dragon controlled by mummer (Varys) or created by mummer (such as the doll dragons they create for plays - or created in sense, like provided him education to be a proper prince/king, such as he would get if the coup didn't happen). Anyhow, I know this is opinion shared by many

Free Northman, on 05 March 2012 - 09:06 AM, said:

If Aegon WAS real, would Martin really reveal it in such an anti-climactic scene, just to get it into Dance?

And this while he has no problem leaving virtually everything else as obscure cliffhangers? Jon's death, Jaime's fate. Brienne's word. Stannis's fate.

All cliffhangers, while the identity of the true king of Westeros is revealed in an off hand manner to a dying Kevan in the Epilogue?

Nah. It is clearly simply a tool to set Aegon up for the big reveal that he is actually a fake, somewhere in the next book or 2.

but don't you think Martin is expecting us to expect that?
My personal opinion is that Aegon is true Targaryen by blood, but will turn out to be disappointing the expectations - he's probably going to turn out vain, rash , and even perhaps mad like his grandfather.

Edited by Greebo, 24 May 2012 - 09:07 PM.

[Apple Martini]

Greebo, on 24 May 2012 - 09:05 PM, said:

I think we can all agree that Young Griff/Aegon is mummer's dragon from the prophecy, but that does not automatically mean that he is fake dragon (or dragon mummer), what it means it that he is either a dragon controlled by mummer (Varys) or created by mummer (such as the doll dragons they create for plays - or created in sense, like provided him education to be a proper prince/king, such as he would get if the coup didn't happen). Anyhow, I know this is opinion shared by many but don't you think Martin is expecting us to expect that? My personal opinion is that Aegon is true Targaryen by blood, but will turn out to be disappointing the expectations - he's probably going to turn out vain, rash , and even perhaps mad like his grandfather.

1. Even if he's a Blackfyre and not Aegon VI, that would still make him a dragon. Even if the "correct" interpretation of "mummer's dragon" is "Varys' dragon," it doesn't necessarily mean that he's Aegon. A black dragon is still a dragon.

2. I think most readers — the casual sort not found on this forum — take what they read at face value. They think Jon is Ned's bastard, they think Dany is going to save teh worldz, and they think baby Aegon was switched and is alive. Most readers probably don't think along the lines of, "Martin wants me to think the kid is fake, so he must be real!" They think that what's presented at face value is true, and then get surprised when that isn't the case.

[Ditocorto]

I think that's the most important clue to the fact that Aegon isn't actually fake, and someone else will be the mummer's dragon (note that in Quaithe's foreshadowing "and the mummer's dragon" comes after "the sun's son" and is separated from "the lion and the griff")

[corbon]

Apple Martini, on 04 March 2012 - 11:58 PM, said:

Varys isn't lying. He's letting Kevan make his own assumptions about the person they're talking about. It's the same sort of tactic Ned used when Robert asked about Wylla. Ned answered the question truthfully but let Robert draw his own conclusions about who Wylla was.

Indeed it is.
A rather important difference though, is that Ned allows Robert to believe the wrong thing because its important that Robert believe the wrong thing.
Varys isn't in the same sort of situation at all. Kevan is essentially dead already, so there is no point in a subtle piece of misdirection directed at him.

The only other possibilities are the little birds, or someone else listening.
Anyone else listening (or even the little birds) has more than enough to put Varys away permanently already just by the death of Kevan and Pycelle. Aiming a misdirection at a third party does not wash in the slightest to me, not to mention that Varys surely has a lock down on the possible listening spots - he's been there and prepared his chosen ground before hand and he is the one who knows all the secret passages etc.

That leaves the little birds, and they are Varys' creatures, mutes that join him in the slaying. Misdirecting them is pointless - if any of them were capable of (and wanted to) betraying him he'd be screwed already.

But people have to believe Varys lied if they are invested in a fake Aegon theory.
So Vary lied (or misdirected).
Its a fact, because it is necessary for other theories.

CrypticWeirwood, on 08 May 2012 - 07:17 PM, said:

The thing to remember about Varys is that he grew up as a mummer.

But what is a mummer, anyway?  Everyone keeps assuming that it’s just an old word for an actor. That’s not quite right.  Yes, sometimes it can mean that, in a pejorative way, but I don’t think that’s what’s going on here.  I think they were travelling plays of a very particular sort — and not morris dancers, either. From Wikipedia:

In mummers’ plays, the central incident is the killing and restoring to life of one of the characters. The characters may be introduced in a series of short speeches (usually in rhyming couplets) in which each personage has his own introductory announcement, or they may introduce themselves in the course of the play's action. The principal characters, presented in a wide variety of manner and style, are a Hero, his chief opponent, the Fool, and a quack Doctor; the defining feature of mumming plays is the Doctor, and the main purpose of the fight is to provide him with a patient to cure. The hero sometimes kills and sometimes is killed by his opponent; in either case, the Doctor comes to restore the dead man to life.

Isn’t that interesting? Now think about Aegon’s (apparent) death and (apparent) resurrection. Is this not the central incident in this particular mummers’ play?

Sure does seem like it to me!

See, now that is exactly why one always clicks on the same old same old threads. Because once in a blue moon someone brings out a new angle.

Well done sir!

Edited by corbon, 25 May 2012 - 02:28 AM.

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

Why would he tell the truth like something he needs to get off his chest. It's not a bond film. He's been lying to everyone for years now about YG. Why decide to tell the truth just because the man is dying, why change the habit of a lifetime because its Kevan?

[mcb]

The question shouldn't be "why would Varys lie". The question is: "what possible motivation would Varys have to tell the truth". If Young Griff is his master plan, his opus magnum, then it's the simplest and yet the most effective play to just act as if he was a real dragon in every context, in every situation. Why on Earth would he ever fall out of his role? Why would he ever denounce his own deception? And re: if someone's listening, then he already knows enough to have Varys executed, that's true. However, should Varys be killed, the Aegon VI plan can still go through, provided Varys hadn't needlessly loosened his tongue.
There are all reasons in the world for him to keep his lie consistent, even convince himself it's the truth. To make an exception  for Kevan would be possibly catastrophic, and in no conceivable scenario profitable.

Edit: if (and I grant you, that's a big if) you support the R+L = J theory, then note that Ned didn't simply lie to selected people about Jon's parentage when needed. His lie became the truth for everyone, Cat and Jon himself included: Jon Snow was, for all intents and purposes, Eddard Stark's bastard son. And Ned didn't even once, in any circumstances, even facing imminent death, spill the beans to anyone. And he wasn't even that fond of the art of deception.

Edited by mcb, 25 May 2012 - 10:02 AM.

[larrytheimp]

Humphrey Plantagenet, on 04 March 2012 - 06:38 PM, said:

Vary’s has created for himself a King to serve the realm, and his name is Aegon. You might say it’s just pedantry to say he doesn’t call him Rhaegar’s son, but I think the distinction is important. To Varys Aegon is a boy trained to be King, not born to be King and that’s more important. He has spent many years engineering this situation and now "he's here".

I totally agree. Varys is one of the few self-made "men" in Westeros, someone who holds the position he's in solely because of his own abilities, efforts, and dedication to survival and his craft.  When you compare that to say, Joffrey, or Aerys, or pretty much anyone that's been handed the keys to the kingdom just because of their BLOOD, it's clear that he cares more about a king's capabilities than his bloodline.  So regardless of the DNA coursing through this kid's blood, he has actually been groomed to rule the realm.  And that's all that matters to Varys.

[corbon]

mcb, on 25 May 2012 - 09:13 AM, said:

There are all reasons in the world for him to keep his lie consistent, even convince himself it's the truth. To make an exception  for Kevan would be possibly catastrophic, and in no conceivable scenario profitable.

Where is the catastrophe? Varys has the situation totally under control. Its 'his ground', throughly prepared and controlled by his totally reliable people.
Nobody can hear because Varys knows the ground and has prepared it in advance.

mcb, on 25 May 2012 - 09:13 AM, said:

Edit: if (and I grant you, that's a big if) you support the R+L = J theory, then note that Ned didn't simply lie to selected people about Jon's parentage when needed. His lie became the truth for everyone, Cat and Jon himself included: Jon Snow was, for all intents and purposes, Eddard Stark's bastard son. And Ned didn't even once, in any circumstances, even facing imminent death, spill the beans to anyone. And he wasn't even that fond of the art of deception.

Ego. Ned's secret is nothing to do with ego. Its not his big plan, its not him being oh-so-clever, its just a dangerous secret that could get him and all his family killed.
Varys' big secret on the other hand is a brilliant plan that he's been hatching for decades.

Bad guys spilling the beans is cliche for a reason. People are people, and very, very clever people like their opponents to know how clever they are when then 'beat them' at whatever the game is. Enough of them to create a cliche anyway.

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

corbon, on 26 May 2012 - 05:37 AM, said:

Bad guys spilling the beans is cliche for a reason. People are people, and very, very clever people like their opponents to know how clever they are when then 'beat them' at whatever the game is. Enough of them to create a cliche anyway.

Bad guys spilling the beans is cliche because it happens in hollywood over and over because the hero disrupts those plans so the audience needs to be told how dastardly those plans were. It is not realistic and didn't come about because it happens in real life.

The problem some of us have is the OP assumes by default he'd be telling the truth then asks people to disprove it when you can do the opposite, assume he's telling a lie and ask people to convince that he's being truthfull. Would a real person tell the truth in those circumstances. Would you, say if you had this plan, that has been worked on for over a decade unviel it all at the first moment you could when you know no one can hear like some built up fart you've waited for everyone to leave before letting drop. It would be totally out of character for him to do that.

[RoamingRonin]

Varys respected Kevan and trusts that his little birds can't reveal his secrets... and that's why he 'broke character' and revealed his plans. People make things so needlessly complicated.......... there are two men playing Lord Varys and Aegon is not the real Aegon but a fake and Varys (the real or the fake one) lied about which Aegon he was talking about to a dying man.... WHAT? Why would anyone write something so convoluted?

[mcb]

corbon, on 26 May 2012 - 05:37 AM, said:

Where is the catastrophe? Varys has the situation totally under control. Its 'his ground', throughly prepared and controlled by his totally reliable people.

Where's the danger, when Sansa calls herself Sansa, when only her and Littlefinger are present?

Quote

Ego. Ned's secret is nothing to do with ego. Its not his big plan, its not him being oh-so-clever, its just a dangerous secret that could get him and all his family killed.
Varys' big secret on the other hand is a brilliant plan that he's been hatching for decades.

The more the reason to protect it. For it to work, no one can be aware of it, ever, including after deaths of all the main actors.

RoamingRonin, on 28 May 2012 - 08:20 AM, said:

Varys respected Kevan and trusts that his little birds can't reveal his secrets... and that's why he 'broke character' and revealed his plans. People make things so needlessly complicated.......... there are two men playing Lord Varys and Aegon is not the real Aegon but a fake and Varys (the real or the fake one) lied about which Aegon he was talking about to a dying man.... WHAT? Why would anyone write something so convoluted?

Let's see: Varys constructed a lie and keeps it consistent. Yup, it's way too convoluted, especially for a simple hack'n'slash story like ASOIAF.

[danm_999]

RoamingRonin, on 28 May 2012 - 08:20 AM, said:

Varys respected Kevan and trusts that his little birds can't reveal his secrets... and that's why he 'broke character' and revealed his plans. People make things so needlessly complicated.......... there are two men playing Lord Varys and Aegon is not the real Aegon but a fake and Varys (the real or the fake one) lied about which Aegon he was talking about to a dying man.... WHAT? Why would anyone write something so convoluted?

How do we know Varys trusts his little birds? They spy for him, doesn't mean he trusts them.

Additionally, how does Varys knows he's not being eavesdropped on; since Tyrion fled the Red Keep, the secret passages are common knowledge. Anybody could be spying on Pycelle's chambers at the time.

[RedBean]

Why wouldn't he lie? Varys has been quiet about his plans for the first four books - there's no reason to believe that he's suddenly going to start telling the truth now just because Kevan is dying. Besides, Varys could mean either Aegon Blackfyre or Aegon Targaryen.

There are a few clues besides the "mummer's dragon" that Aegon is fake:

*Spoilers*
1) Illyrio is thought by many to be Aegon's real father. This is supported by two things: One, that Tyrion suspected that Illyrio was getting something greater than riches or positions of honor out of making Aegon king. The only possible thing I could think of that would be more valuable for Illyrio than either of these things is having his son as the actual king. Two, Illyrio seemed very sad when "Griff" told him that "Young Griff" would be leaving before Illyrio got a chance to see him. It's clear from this that Illyrio actually cares about him, which suggests that Illyrio isn't just using Aegon to get what he wants, and that he actually cares about the boy. Again, this makes sense if Aegon was really his son and not Rhaegar's.

2)This was something that I didn't actually catch when I was reading the book, but someone linked me to it. Septa Lemore tells a story to Tyrion which seems to be foreshadowing that Aegon is really not a Targaryen, but a Blackfyre, but that the people would be able to figure out the truth because it's been so long that no one can really tell the difference.

*/End Spoilers

[danm_999]

RedBean, on 28 May 2012 - 09:21 AM, said:

*Spoilers*
1) Illyrio is thought by many to be Aegon's real father. This is supported by two things: One, that Tyrion suspected that Illyrio was getting something greater than riches or positions of honor out of making Aegon king. The only possible thing I could think of that would be more valuable for Illyrio than either of these things is having his son as the actual king. Two, Illyrio seemed very sad when "Griff" told him that "Young Griff" would be leaving before Illyrio got a chance to see him. It's clear from this that Illyrio actually cares about him, which suggests that Illyrio isn't just using Aegon to get what he wants, and that he actually cares about the boy. Again, this makes sense if Aegon was really his son and not Rhaegar's.

Illyrio also has some clothes that were meant for a little boy on hand when Tyrion first arrives in Pentos. According to Tyrion, they look quite old...

[Mixta]

It is said that Qyburn took up the spy network of Varys very quickly after he left King's Landing.  Varys may fear that Qyburn was listening or even hoped/planned that he would be listening.

[Scipio Africanus]

This is definitely one of the cliffhangers that bothers me. Why would he lie? I doubt Martin wrote it in just for the benifit of the reader, doesn't seem like his style. He seems very deliberate and careful what he writes, always paying attention to detail.

I personally don't think Varys is lying. I see absolutely no reason for it. His "little birds" are not only (illeterate) mutes (they're not gonna tell anyone) but I also doubt Qyburn is as good as Varys as spymaster. I disagree with the above poster, Varys had like a decade to explore the RK and build up his network, Qyburn is a newcomer. I have no doubt Varys knows every little secret hiding place and being a careful man he would likely make sure he wasn't followed. I don't think Varys feared being "caught on tape".

And if you think about it, it is open to interpet Varys words as that there really is an Aegon in the house but wether he's actually Rheagar's son is a different and maybe irrelavant matter.

[danm_999]

Scipio Africanus, on 28 May 2012 - 12:37 PM, said:

I personally don't think Varys is lying. I see absolutely no reason for it. His "little birds" are not only (illeterate) mutes (they're not gonna tell anyone)

I'm going to stop you here.

If Varys spies are all illiterate and mute, how does he receive reports from them?

[Scipio Africanus]

danm_999, on 28 May 2012 - 12:40 PM, said:

I'm going to stop you here.

If Varys spies are all illiterate and mute, how does he receive reports from them?

Sign language?

I thought it was mentioned somewhere that his "little birds" were illiterate and mute, and they were killed off on a regular basis.
But I could be wrong. Only read the whole series once.

[danm_999]

Scipio Africanus, on 28 May 2012 - 12:46 PM, said:

Sign language?

I thought it was mentioned somewhere that his "little birds" were illiterate and mute, and they were killed off on a regular basis.
But I could be wrong. Only read the whole series once.

We don't really know anything about Varys little birds, we only have theories. There's not much reason to suspect they're immune to questioning, so it might make sense to lie in front of them.

[Lummel]

What! Only read it once Scipio Africanus!  Get ye hence and reread!

AGOT, varys' and Illyrio's conversation that Arya overhears, Illyrio mentions the difficulty of getting the literate children when Varys asks him for more of them.