203 replies to this topic

[Anna Targaryen]

I think he is real
coz why would varys lie to a dead man ?

[Prince of Dragonstone]

LadyoftheNorth72, on 06 March 2012 - 02:13 AM, said:

That is the line that Varys always feeds to anyone who asks his motives, but IMO it is one of the biggest lies in the entire series.  Varys has done nothing BUT make the realm bleed, repeatedly and often, working behind the scenes to destroy alliances and any hopes of peace.

Varys wants Aegon on the throne, period.  That is his sole motive for everything, and he is happy to put the realm through another round of chaos amd destruction to make it happen.

If he gives one good damn about the realm of Westeros for its own sake, he is sorely confused about how to go about doing it any lasting good.  Even putting Aegon on the throne will not bring peace; there will always be those who claim he is a pretender and fight against him.

I do like your line of thought but I truly think that Varys somehow believes that the end justifies the means. He believes that the realm can bleed for a few years if it will mean decades of peace under an Aegon VI regime. He did not see Aerys, Robert or the Lannisters as good rulers. Although he did not save Ned in the end, I believe that he respected Ned because he was a just and fair person. One thing that confuses me about him is why he was putting seeds of doubt into Aerys' mind about Rhaegar, according to either Connington or Selmy. I forgot which POV chapter contained this gem in the book. You would think that Varys would rather has Rhaegar as King than Aerys.

Also another kink is that several Targaryens devolved into madness later in life. Aerys was supposedly a good person in the beginning of his reign. He began to sink into madness when he became older and Varys was whispering things in his ear that was making an already mentally ill man even more paranoid.

I find Varys and his puppet master game to be one of the most fascinating aspects of the series. I really hope we get to clearly learn the full extent of his endgame. I somehow doubt he did all of this JUST to put Aegon on the throne. Also, what is Illyrio's part in all this? What does he stand to gain?

[Lykos]

@Anna Targaryen
Welcome, you might want to check the thread: Why would Varys lie?
And in short, why should he explain the truth?

@LadyoftheNorth72
I´m afraid Varys really believes, that he serves the Realm and as Serie suggested to me he probably intends to rule trough Aegon.  I completely agree with you, though.
And Aegon being prepared to rule doesn´t make him capable, either.


ETA:  http://asoiaf.wester...ould-varys-lie/

Edited by Lykos, 06 March 2012 - 03:18 AM.

[Fire and Blood!]

I think that giving him Blackfire before he is recognised as the undisputed son of Rhaegar(whom I belive he is) would be a bad move.

[Anna Targaryen]

@ Lykos
thank you for the link and glad to be here
i will say this i have my doubts too but i'd love if he is real and wining against both lannister and tyrell
i keep thinking that in the books all the lords might just see him as a good way to end a bad sitiuation so he is real to them
and maybe in the next books he will ally himself with dany which mean targs victory after all
as for us readers i dont think that martin will make the carachter in book 5 and destroyed so fast ... it will be pointless

[Alia of the knife]

OnionAhaiReborn, on 05 March 2012 - 11:39 PM, said:

Haha, I thought I was thinking for myself when I gave my opinion on the subject. Apple might not know all, but she is very good with questions of genealogy and succession.

Yes Apple is, the whole topic of genealogy, succession and timeline makes me cry like a six year old.

[Patchface12]

Blackfyre was Aegon the Conqueror's sword. I think Aegon IV giving Daemon the Blackfyre sword was how he got his name.

I think Aegon is one of the rare instances where if u know the Wars of the Roses, u know what going to happen.

During the WotR, the Beauforts were a legitimized bastard line who were killed off in the male line. However, they survived in the female line. Henry Tudor, who won the Wars of Roses and became Henry VII, mother was Margeret Beaufort. Aegon is Henry Tudor.

Edited by Patchface12, 12 March 2012 - 09:55 PM.

[Lyanna Stark]

Patchface12, on 07 March 2012 - 09:56 AM, said:

Blackfyre was Aegon the Conqueror's sword. I think Aegon IV giving Daemon Blackfyre was how he got his name.

I think Aegon is one of the rare instances where if u know the Wars of the Roses, u know what going to happen.

During the WotR, the Beauforts were a legitimized bastard line who were killed off in the male line. However, they survived in the female line. Henry Tudor, who one the Wars of Roses and became Henry VII, mother was Margeret Beaufort. Aegon is Henry Tudor.

But Aegon is legitimate, if he is indeed a grown baby Aegon and didn't in fact get smashed and killed by Gregor Clegane. In fact, if he IS legitimate, he has a better claim to the throne than Danaerys. Of course, Varys may be lying about this, but that also begs the question why Jon Connington is running around the countryside with someone impersonating his good friend (and crush**) Rhaegar's son.

Of course, he lacks dragons, which can be a very persuasive argument in a conflict of any kind. For all we know, the lie may be that Aegon has access to dragons, which he clearly has not. However, the dragon has three heads and if we are looking at the currently existing Targaryens, we are left with Danaerys (certain), Aegon (fairly certain) and Jon (still in doubt). Unless there is an as of yet undiscovered Targaryen, we are lead to believe Aegon is the real deal.


** There has been some discussion on whether Jon Connington was in fact in love with Rhaegar, which would explain some of his devotion.

Edited by Lyanna Stark, 07 March 2012 - 10:32 AM.

[Know Face Man]

Patchface12, on 07 March 2012 - 09:56 AM, said:

Blackfyre was Aegon the Conqueror's sword. I think Aegon IV giving Daemon Blackfyre was how he got his name.

I think Aegon is one of the rare instances where if u know the Wars of the Roses, u know what going to happen.

During the WotR, the Beauforts were a legitimized bastard line who were killed off in the male line. However, they survived in the female line. Henry Tudor, who one the Wars of Roses and became Henry VII, mother was Margeret Beaufort. Aegon is Henry Tudor.

Is there a show about this. I thought I seen something on TV

Edited by Know Face Man, 07 March 2012 - 10:33 AM.

[Lord Damian]

There is more proof that Tommen, Joff and Marcylla are inbred Lannister Bastards than Baratheons then there is that Aegon is really Rheagar and Ellia's son. At this point, only Dany is proof of her Targ Bloodline with her dragons etc.. We have all of the hints thrown to us through GRRM between Quaithe, the story of the Clankey Dragon, references to the Blackfyres and the male line wiped out, Bittersteel's vow and now we have Young Griff. To me, it is going to come down as it did with Henry Tudor, Might will trump blood anytime so long as there is a shortage of honorable men in the realm. Henry Tudor had no right to the Throne of England, he had treacherous people who were in opportunistic positions who took advantage of their opportunites. Aegon has Connington, the Golden Company and some elephants and most of all, Varys who is opportunistic and is always in a position of opportunity. Besides, Varys is treacherous.

[Lyanna Stark]

Lord Damian, on 07 March 2012 - 10:39 AM, said:

There is more proof that Tommen, Joff and Marcylla are inbred Lannister Bastards than Baratheons then there is that Aegon is really Rheagar and Ellia's son. At this point,

Depends if you think him travelling with Connington and Varys saying so still makes it completely unreliable. It certainly isn't 100% unlikely, but considering the speculations that baby Aegon is alive have been flourishing since 2000, I'd say it wasn't completely coming out of left field.

Basically, with GRRM, if there are no conclusive evidence that a character is dead, i.e. we actually see the beheading, or we see a body, or something, assume the character may still be alive.

Baby Aegon was just that: a baby. One baby looks much like the next and they are small things, easy to take with you. Gregor had never seen Aegon and even if he had, how could he tell that the baby he smashed to death was Aegon Targaryen?

Further, you have Varys say so, and you have Jon Connington, Rhaegar's old friend. Would he travel with some random dude impersonating his friend's son, and if so, why?

You are quite right that Might makes Right, and right now, Aegon has the Golden Company with him and probably also Varys on his side, both formidable allies.

One other thing people forget is the prophecy: "Three Heads has the Dragon".

If Aegon is not a "real" Targaryen, then who is the third head (if we assume Jon is the second as the second living Targaryen via his parents Rhaegar and Lyanna)? There are not other living Targaryens left, and Daenerys is barren.

Edited by Lyanna Stark, 07 March 2012 - 01:54 PM.

[Dragonfish]

Lyanna Stark, on 07 March 2012 - 01:53 PM, said:

Further, you have Varys say so, and you have Jon Connington, Rhaegar's old friend. Would he travel with some random dude impersonating his friend's son, and if so, why?

Because Connington himself is not aware of Aegon's true heritage. Varys only let him in on the scheme when Aegon was 5 years old, so Connington is basically relying on the same info as we are: Varys' word.

Quote

One other thing people forget is the prophecy: "Three Heads has the Dragon".

If Aegon is not a "real" Targaryen, then who is the third head (if we assume Jon is the second as the second living Targaryen via his parents Rhaegar and Lyanna)? There are not other living Targaryens left, and Daenerys is barren.

George has said that the third head need not be a Targaryen, so this really isn't much of an issue.

[Patchface12]

Lyanna Stark, on 07 March 2012 - 01:53 PM, said:

There are not other living Targaryens left, and Daenerys is barren.

Dany is only barren for the time being. Some have pointed out what Mirri Maz Duur said to Dany did not mean she was barren, but several prophetic events had to happen before she could have children again. One was the sun rising in the west and setting in the east. Some have speculated that this was Quentyn, who came from the west and died in the east. What the mountains blowing the wind are is anybodies guess, but it could involve Vaes Dothrak with its Mother of Mountains, where Dany is headed at the end of Dance.

[Nymphetamine]

Lyanna Stark, on 07 March 2012 - 01:53 PM, said:

Depends if you think him travelling with Connington and Varys saying so still makes it completely unreliable. It certainly isn't 100% unlikely, but considering the speculations that baby Aegon is alive have been flourishing since 2000, I'd say it wasn't completely coming out of left field.

Basically, with GRRM, if there are no conclusive evidence that a character is dead, i.e. we actually see the beheading, or we see a body, or something, assume the character may still be alive.

Baby Aegon was just that: a baby. One baby looks much like the next and they are small things, easy to take with you. Gregor had never seen Aegon and even if he had, how could he tell that the baby he smashed to death was Aegon Targaryen?

Further, you have Varys say so, and you have Jon Connington, Rhaegar's old friend. Would he travel with some random dude impersonating his friend's son, and if so, why?

You are quite right that Might makes Right, and right now, Aegon has the Golden Company with him and probably also Varys on his side, both formidable allies.

One other thing people forget is the prophecy: "Three Heads has the Dragon".

If Aegon is not a "real" Targaryen, then who is the third head (if we assume Jon is the second as the second living Targaryen via his parents Rhaegar and Lyanna)? There are not other living Targaryens left, and Daenerys is barren.

There is no evidence to support Aegon being real other than Varys (a professional liar) saying so. Connington was probably in love with Rhaegar and is clearly consumed with grief and guilt over what happened to him. Connington sees what he wants to see in Aegon. Also, I'm pretty sure Connington didn't even join up with Aegon until he was 5 or so years old.

There is quite a bit of circumstantial evidence to support Aegon being a Blackfyre/Illyrio's son. And GRRM already said the heads of the dragon don't have to be Targaryens.

[Lyanna Stark]

Nymphetamine, on 07 March 2012 - 03:00 PM, said:

There is no evidence to support Aegon being real other than Varys (a professional liar) saying so. Connington was probably in love with Rhaegar and is clearly consumed with grief and guilt over what happened to him. Connington sees what he wants to see in Aegon. Also, I'm pretty sure Connington didn't even join up with Aegon until he was 5 or so years old.

There is quite a bit of circumstantial evidence to support Aegon being a Blackfyre/Illyrio's son. And GRRM already said the heads of the dragon don't have to be Targaryens.

Oh for sure there is not more than circumstantial evidence, but it's at the same time nothing we can rule out. If he IS a Blackfyre, which Blackfyre should he then be related to? There is nobody that stands out as an obvious candidate in the text. Illyrio as a father I find very hard to believe, or find credible. Would there not be a resemblance? Aegon has Targaryen features and dyes his hair to conceal the silver Targaryen colour. Had he been the child of a distant Blackfyre and/or Illyrio, it would be unlikely he would looked so much like a trueborn Targaryen.

Further, I can't find anything in the text hinting at Illyrio being Aegon's real father, nor any foreshadowing that Varys and Illyrio wants to put a son of one of them onto the Westerosi throne.

Even though Varys is a liar, it doesn't mean that he always lie. I also think that people interpret "Mummer's dragon" as Aegon being the false dragon, but it can just as well mean that it's a possessive, i.e. Varys is the Mummer. The prophecies in Martin world are vague on purpose to leave it ambiguous like this.

Personally I felt pretty smug since I have been supporting the "Baby Aegon is alive" theory for ten years. I will be disappointed if he is NOT the real Aegon, but I won't be terribly surprised either. It is far from a done thing.

Edited by Lyanna Stark, 07 March 2012 - 03:13 PM.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Almost all evidence for theories on these boards is circumstantial. We can't dust for fingerprints or do a DNA test or anything. But the link between the Golden Company and the Blackfyres is a huge piece of evidence. The Golden Company has broken the first contract in its history, and it has done so to support Aegon.

"'The Golden Company marches toward Volantis as we speak, there to await the coming of our queen out of the east.'
Beneath the gold, the bitter steel. 'I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.'
'Myr.' Illyrio smirked. 'Contracts can be broken.'
'There is more coin in cheese than I knew,' said Tyrion. 'How did you accomplish that?'
The magister waggled his fat fingers. 'Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more.'" ADwD pg 78

You're not gonna get a bigger tell than that- some contracts are writ in blood. What other contract could be written in blood when we're talking about the Golden Company if it is not to support a Blackfyre?

Edited by OnionAhaiReborn, 07 March 2012 - 03:15 PM.

[Independent George]

Just as the case for it being Aegon depends mostly on Varys' word that it's him, the case against it being Aegon depends on a positive identification of a badly mutilated corpse, by people who likely couldn't have identified a pristine baby Aegon.

There is no definitive case either way. As many have pointed out, the silver hair and purple eyes could easily be from a Blackfire instead of a Targaryan. The only person who knows for certain is arguably the least trustworthy person in the entire series.

[Lyanna Stark]

OnionAhaiReborn, on 07 March 2012 - 03:14 PM, said:

Almost all evidence for theories on these boards is circumstantial. We can't dust for fingerprints or do a DNA test or anything. But the link between the Golden Company and the Blackfyres is a huge piece of evidence. The Golden Company has broken the first contract in its history, and it has done so to support Aegon.

"'The Golden Company marches toward Volantis as we speak, there to await the coming of our queen out of the east.'
Beneath the gold, the bitter steel. 'I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.'
'Myr.' Illyrio smirked. 'Contracts can be broken.'
'There is more coin in cheese than I knew,' said Tyrion. 'How did you accomplish that?'
The magister waggled his fat fingers. 'Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more.'" ADwD pg 78

You're not gonna get a bigger tell than that- some contracts are writ in blood. What other contract could be written in blood when we're talking about the Golden Company if it is not to support a Blackfyre?

Ah you mean Illyrio and Varys are only truthful when dealing with the Golden Company.

As stated, Illyrio and Varys are good at playing people.

Also: if Aegon is a Blackfyre, he will very likely encounter more political problems than a "true" Targaryen would among the loyalists. Regardless of his heritage, he will be forced to pose as a "real" Targaryen. The only reason for him to be a Blackfyre is for him to rally the Golden Company. However, it makes his claim to the Iron Throne far, far weaker than Dany's. As he most likely can't be both, he needs to be one of the two.

In the short perspective, it would be more advantageous for him to be a Blackfyre, but in the long run, definitely a Targaryen.

From Jon Connington's perspective, it's imperative that Aegon be a Targaryen as well, so in that case, he cannot be in on the fact that Young Griff "secretly" is a Blackfyre. This means Varys and Illyrio must have kept him out of the loop with regards to the negotiations with the GC in case they did go down the route of claiming Aegon = Blackfyre.

[Nymphetamine]

Lyanna Stark, on 07 March 2012 - 03:27 PM, said:

Ah you mean Illyrio and Varys are only truthful when dealing with the Golden Company.

As stated, Illyrio and Varys are good at playing people.

Also: if Aegon is a Blackfyre, he will very likely encounter more political problems than a "true" Targaryen would among the loyalists. Regardless of his heritage, he will be forced to pose as a "real" Targaryen. The only reason for him to be a Blackfyre is for him to rally the Golden Company. However, it makes his claim to the Iron Throne far, far weaker than Dany's. As he most likely can't be both, he needs to be one of the two.

In the short perspective, it would be more advantageous for him to be a Blackfyre, but in the long run, definitely a Targaryen.

From Jon Connington's perspective, it's imperative that Aegon be a Targaryen as well, so in that case, he cannot be in on the fact that Young Griff "secretly" is a Blackfyre. This means Varys and Illyrio must have kept him out of the loop with regards to the negotiations with the GC in case they did go down the route of claiming Aegon = Blackfyre.

If Aegon is a Blackfyre, Connington is most definitely not it on it, he is just another pawn used by Varys. And Aegon's Blackfyre heritage would probably never be revealed to Westeros, if it was revealed it wouldn't be until years down the line when his dynasty was completely secure. I don't even know if WE will find out for sure whether he is real/fake/Blackfyre and in the long run it doesn't matter because Aegon most likely will not be alive for very long.

Edited by Nymphetamine, 07 March 2012 - 03:33 PM.

[Gingerly Grumkin]

Good find Onion, that pretty much does tell us he is fake. So what does that mean? Will he take over the throne and wash his hair again? The only perosn that anyone would question his legitimacy would be, I guess The Prince of Dorne and he would only maybe do that if Quinton is alive with a dragon two. And how could we ever learn for sure? I guess Bran as a tree, or Varys/Illyrio under torture