86 replies to this topic

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Ser_Aeron_Connel, on 07 March 2012 - 09:55 PM, said:

Stallion, couldn't those "friends in the Reach" include Tarly and/or Rowan? There may in fact be no battle between JonCon and the Reachmen.

Valonquar., wouldn't the stormlords be doing anything but securing peace if they declared for Aegon? Surely this would mean imminent war with the Lannister/Tyrell regime. I think they have a battle coming one way or the other, whether or not they like it.

This has been speculated Ser Aeron.  But I have seen nothing of either Tarly or Rowan to make me think that they will switch sides short of a defeat.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

Stallion That Mounts Texas, on 07 March 2012 - 10:03 PM, said:

This has been speculated Ser Aeron. But I have seen nothing of either Tarly or Rowan to make me think that they will switch sides short of a defeat.

That would be true for Rowan but one couldn't be so sure about Tarly. Tarly must pissed off at Mace Tyrell apart from that Tarly is really military minded and the Lannister-Tyrell side don't have a commander to rally to after Kevan's death, Tywin's death ,Jaime getting maimed and then getting captured and in the end Loras's injuries.

Garlan Tyrell is the only available option and he is the lord of the castle which rightfully belongs to Tarly(through his wife).
While Aegon has JonCOn and Golden Company the best swellswords in the world. Aegon himself might turn out to be a successful commander now that he has captured Storm's End by himself.

[Lord Damian]

I keep thinking that the only person that will be able to stop Aegon is Dany.  She is the slayer of lies. I am convinced that Aegon is "the cloth dragon /mummer's Dragon". It will be for her to deal with him. Aegon will have Dorne behind him because of his supposed mother, Ellia of Dorne. He will take Storm's End I think because Ramsay's letter will be relayed around Westeros, whether it is true or not. Storm's End will fall without a fight. At this point, the Tyrells who owed everything to the Targs might think that if he is real and a "pack mentality" will take hold in Westeros. If the Tyrells do not switch sides before the Tarly's, there could be trouble. It comes down to principal. To this point, Viserys has gone from exiled despot to dead. Dany was all but forgotten, but Aegon, Aegon if believed to be Rheagar's son, he is the righful heir above even them as well as the Baratheons, Lannister inbreds and upstart Tyrells. Aegon might only have to fight one battle and the rest will submit. It may go down that easy.

[Lady Octarina]

I think the Iron Throne will be his for a while, but I doubt he'll hold it that long. First because he's a fake, and those die-hard Targ loyalists will probably be pissed about being tricked by a Blackfyre, especially if they support him at first (yes, I'm thinking about Tarly and Hightower - or was it Redwyne who was their strongest supporter?). Targs and Blackfyres might be nearly the same for us, but I doubt that's the case for westerosi lords. Then, there's the possibility that Daenerys and/or the dragons will cause his ruin. Finally, he's been around Connington too frequently, we don't know how long it took him to notice the greyscale; YG could have it, and no one will support a king with such a disease, especially if the theories are correct and that will become an epidemics in Westeros. Besides those three factors, we always have Jon Snow, but I have no idea what Martin is planning to use him for.

Of course, there's always the possibility that Westeros will be divided and YG will rule a part of it.

Anyway, about his marriage... well, I think Dorne will be pretty much bound to support him, with or without marriage, since he's supposed to be Elia's son (I was thinking, what if it's Doran who somehow finds out he's a fake? He's one of the few people still alive who can notice the boy has nothing of Elia or Rhaegar in him). I used to think the Tyrells would try to keep the Throne no matter what, but so many of their most important bannermen are Targ loyalists, hat they will probably have to accept YG in order to keep their power over the Reach. So, yes, I think there's every chance he'll be Margaery's next king, and we all know what that means.

[iamthedave]

I don't think anyone who matters will care if he's fake. He'll be backed so long as it's convenient for their plans. A fake who gets them what they want will find more support than the wilful young girl who has expressed frequent interest in punishing everyone responsible for her family's defeat (not that she'll get very far on that count, mind) and who seems very likely to be invading Westerosi backed - at last count - by everyone they hate (if events in WoW pan out in one way she could be invading with an army of Greyjoys, Dothraki, sellswords, former slaves, and Tyrion).

Saying that, I'm not convinced he'll rule. Part of me has to believe Varys' plan will hit a snag eventually and YG will stumble due to the impetuousness of youth. If he does, and he's good at it, then more power to him. The realm needs somebody sane in charge for a while. Plus it's the easiest way for Dany to avoid going to war with the entire continent (since YG still wants to marry her, going by last information, and should at the very least welcome her with open arms).

[Ice Turtle]

Lady Octarina, on 08 March 2012 - 06:42 PM, said:

So, yes, I think there's every chance he'll be Margaery's next king, and we all know what that means.

Brave foolish boy.

[Dark Rider]

The best way to unite a nation divided would be for a foreign invasion to take place.

I remember a good TNT TV series on the Civil War and there was a part where a Southern General Warned a British Soldier Observer that any British military action would quicky unite the States as a warning not to think that it was possible to conquer us while divided.

Aegon and the Gold Company might have claims of Westeros heritage, but their very much foreigners to the houses and even common people of Westeros.   So a GREAT deal depends on the type of campaign that Aegon and later Dany wage.  Dany has won the support of slaves in Essos as she's conquered she's been a "liberator."  If Dany comes to Westeros with the same mentality of lifting up the common people as her children she may win incredible popular support, which to my mind is of even greater value than the support of the Lords.  I don't see Aegon waging such a "hearts and minds" campaign with the Gold Company. I don't see Aegon being this "Man of the People" as he wages war that Varys has tried to raise him into being.  To me he's in danger of becoming a self-entitled prick.

[Lord Damian]

lazy turtle, on 08 March 2012 - 08:38 PM, said:

Brave foolish boy.

The kiss of death it is I say.

[The Drunkard]

Dark Rider, on 08 March 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

The best way to unite a nation divided would be for a foreign invasion to take place.

I remember a good TNT TV series on the Civil War and there was a part where a Southern General Warned a British Soldier Observer that any British military action would quicky unite the States as a warning not to think that it was possible to conquer us while divided.

Aegon and the Gold Company might have claims of Westeros heritage, but their very much foreigners to the houses and even common people of Westeros.   So a GREAT deal depends on the type of campaign that Aegon and later Dany wage.  Dany has won the support of slaves in Essos as she's conquered she's been a "liberator."  If Dany comes to Westeros with the same mentality of lifting up the common people as her children she may win incredible popular support, which to my mind is of even greater value than the support of the Lords.  I don't see Aegon waging such a "hearts and minds" campaign with the Gold Company. I don't see Aegon being this "Man of the People" as he wages war that Varys has tried to raise him into being.  To me he's in danger of becoming a self-entitled prick.

That's a good point. I'm fairly certain Aegon will gain control of Dorne and the Stormlands, but the other Houses aren't going to jump to fight for the king in charge of foreign mercenaries, oft despised Dornishmen and the place that continually breeds rebels.

[Lord Damian]

The Drunkard, on 09 March 2012 - 07:42 AM, said:

That's a good point. I'm fairly certain Aegon will gain control of Dorne and the Stormlands, but the other Houses aren't going to jump to fight for the king in charge of foreign mercenaries, oft despised Dornishmen and the place that continually breeds rebels.

A fair point, when reading Connington's last pov, after they land, they speak of two potential allies, Dorne, which they will get  and the Vale. The Vale has been sitting around for 5 of 7 books and have lost only one knight in the duel with Bronn. I think, Littlefinger will see this as an opportunity to bring Sansa out of hiding and offer her as the true heir of Winterfell and the North, first cousin to the lord of the Vale to Aegon. With Dany not in Westeros, Aegon and Connington would be fools to reject. Aegon will have KL caught in a pincer. Some of the Reach bannermen migh break for Aegon, since he will be generally accepted as Aegon. Also, the assasinations of Pycell and Kevan, let alone the trials will almost certainly destroy the Lannister/Tyrell alliance. Has anyone thought, if Margeary loses her trial, the Tyrells lose offical power and standing in KL, leaving more uncertanty for "The People"

[R'hllor-Is-The-Truth]

AnotherHedgeKnight, on 07 March 2012 - 03:16 PM, said:

No one thinks that Stannis will support him?. He said that the hardest decision he made was choosing kin over king and he also said he never wanted to be king but that it is his duty to be king. If he finds out about Aegon and believes that he is the real deal then he may throw down his claim and declare for the real king. But then again its stannis who is iron and who may have totally consumed by the possibility that he is AA reborn

I doubt he even really believes in AA prophecy or cares. And he knows that the Lightbringer he has is just as useful as a normal sword. Stannis is the one and only King, because Targaryens weren't even rightful rulers of Westeros. Aegon was this foreigner who had Dragons and burned everyone he didn't like, thats what made him The Conqueror. And Robert just like Aegon defeated his enemies and became King. Know Stannis is the rightful heir to Robert, and he is King. But if Aegon can defeat Stannis, which is very unlikely, then he becomes King.

One thing people keep forgetting is that Stannis is a genius and probably the best in Westeros when it comes to the military's, wars, and invasions. Stannis will win.

[Tytan Lannister]

Lord Damian, on 09 March 2012 - 09:18 AM, said:

Has anyone thought, if Margeary loses her trial, the Tyrells lose offical power and standing in KL, leaving more uncertanty for "The People"

Yeah but the Tyrells won't go down without a fight:) They'll try to keep power either by force or through other means. If they succeed and take King's Landing and the Iron Throne they will stand against Aegon to keep power. OR if Cersei or HIgh Sparrow manage get rid of them, they might be angry enough to join Aegon and help him to the Iron Throne. Either the Tyrells should brace themselves...War Is Coming...

[Tytan Lannister]

R, on 09 March 2012 - 11:49 AM, said:

One thing people keep forgetting is that Stannis is a genius and probably the best in Westeros when it comes to the military's, wars, and invasions. Stannis will win.

I don't doubt his skills. But something tells me that Stannis will not rule. G.R.R.M. has a soft spot for cripples, bastards and broken things. Someone unlikely will come into the throne....a certain bastard in black maybe...?

Edited by Skyler, 09 March 2012 - 12:10 PM.

[Lady Octarina]

Dark Rider, on 08 March 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

The best way to unite a nation divided would be for a foreign invasion to take place.

I remember a good TNT TV series on the Civil War and there was a part where a Southern General Warned a British Soldier Observer that any British military action would quicky unite the States as a warning not to think that it was possible to conquer us while divided.

Aegon and the Gold Company might have claims of Westeros heritage, but their very much foreigners to the houses and even common people of Westeros.   So a GREAT deal depends on the type of campaign that Aegon and later Dany wage.  Dany has won the support of slaves in Essos as she's conquered she's been a "liberator."  If Dany comes to Westeros with the same mentality of lifting up the common people as her children she may win incredible popular support, which to my mind is of even greater value than the support of the Lords.  I don't see Aegon waging such a "hearts and minds" campaign with the Gold Company. I don't see Aegon being this "Man of the People" as he wages war that Varys has tried to raise him into being.  To me he's in danger of becoming a self-entitled prick.

I like how you see things, only I think that Daenerys or YG, makes no difference in this case. They both (probably?) arrive with an army of foreigners conquering Westeros (I mean, she hasn't arrived yet, but unless Drogon carries her alone to Westeros, which would be a fairly stupid move, she arrives with unsullied and possibly dothraki - can't expect that to be well-received by all those lords). Not to mention that there's still the third, most dangerous enemy: the Others and wights. With all these possibilities, it's really complicated to imagine the outcome of the war - the only thing I'm certain of is that none of the current contenders will get the Iron Throne (and the whole of Westeros) at the end.

Lord Damian, on 09 March 2012 - 09:18 AM, said:

A fair point, when reading Connington's last pov, after they land, they speak of two potential allies, Dorne, which they will get  and the Vale. The Vale has been sitting around for 5 of 7 books and have lost only one knight in the duel with Bronn. I think, Littlefinger will see this as an opportunity to bring Sansa out of hiding and offer her as the true heir of Winterfell and the North, first cousin to the lord of the Vale to Aegon. With Dany not in Westeros, Aegon and Connington would be fools to reject. Aegon will have KL caught in a pincer. Some of the Reach bannermen migh break for Aegon, since he will be generally accepted as Aegon. Also, the assasinations of Pycell and Kevan, let alone the trials will almost certainly destroy the Lannister/Tyrell alliance. Has anyone thought, if Margeary loses her trial, the Tyrells lose offical power and standing in KL, leaving more uncertanty for "The People"

Would they?, I wonder. I don't think Littlefinger will offer her to YG - he knows nothing about the boy, he can't play him, it would be risking too much to take his side. And I have the feeling Harry the Heir will yet be significant somehow. Besides, even if Connington and Littlefinger wanted that marriage, who's to say Aegon would accept it? The boy is impetuous, he has rejected Connington's advices before, and I think he'd rather wait for his auntie and her precious dragons - though, of course, it isn't impossible that he ends up marrying someone before that, only I doubt he'll make the wisest choice in marriage. But how exactly will they cancel Sansa's marriage to Tyrion anyway? Use a septon to prove that the marriage wasn't consummated?

And well, the way things look now, I doubt Margaery will lose her trial. Whatever she's done to remain (or appear to be) a virgin has worked, and I have a feeling she might still marry a few other times. Though I could be wrong, of course - three is a magic number, what if the third marriage truly is the final? lol

[David C. Hunter]

Aegon - already has Dorne which is intensified by the fact that Quentyn was burned alive.
Aegon -  will probably get the Stormlands by the fact that he's not a Tyrell or Lannister an dthat he holds Storm's End

Aegon can possibly gain the support of the Tarlys and Hightowers of the Reach because of their past loyalties to the dragon as well as the potential for advancement. If he gets those two armies he will win the reach.

Aegon - Compared to conquering the Reach, conquering King's Landing will be a breeze, unless Cersei goes all Mad King on us and sacks King's Landing again.

Conquering the South will be pretty easy IMO. The biggest war will be if they try to conquer the Rock, that willl be difficult.
Aegon will not conquer the Riverlands, North or the Vale

[Lord Damian]

Skyler, on 09 March 2012 - 12:05 PM, said:

Yeah but the Tyrells won't go down without a fight:) They'll try to keep power either by force or through other means. If they succeed and take King's Landing and the Iron Throne they will stand against Aegon to keep power. OR if Cersei or HIgh Sparrow manage get rid of them, they might be angry enough to join Aegon and help him to the Iron Throne. Either the Tyrells should brace themselves...War Is Coming...

Ihave the feeling the Tyrells will give one big battle against Aegon and Dorne will join the battle in a surprise. According to Connington, the Dornish have two armies in their North and west passes, assembled and just waiting there. I think the Tyrells will fight and probably lose bad.

[Lord Damian]

Lady Octarina, on 09 March 2012 - 12:33 PM, said:

I like how you see things, only I think that Daenerys or YG, makes no difference in this case. They both (probably?) arrive with an army of foreigners conquering Westeros (I mean, she hasn't arrived yet, but unless Drogon carries her alone to Westeros, which would be a fairly stupid move, she arrives with unsullied and possibly dothraki - can't expect that to be well-received by all those lords). Not to mention that there's still the third, most dangerous enemy: the Others and wights. With all these possibilities, it's really complicated to imagine the outcome of the war - the only thing I'm certain of is that none of the current contenders will get the Iron Throne (and the whole of Westeros) at the end.




Would they?, I wonder. I don't think Littlefinger will offer her to YG - he knows nothing about the boy, he can't play him, it would be risking too much to take his side. And I have the feeling Harry the Heir will yet be significant somehow. Besides, even if Connington and Littlefinger wanted that marriage, who's to say Aegon would accept it? The boy is impetuous, he has rejected Connington's advices before, and I think he'd rather wait for his auntie and her precious dragons - though, of course, it isn't impossible that he ends up marrying someone before that, only I doubt he'll make the wisest choice in marriage. But how exactly will they cancel Sansa's marriage to Tyrion anyway? Use a septon to prove that the marriage wasn't consummated?

And well, the way things look now, I doubt Margaery will lose her trial. Whatever she's done to remain (or appear to be) a virgin has worked, and I have a feeling she might still marry a few other times. Though I could be wrong, of course - three is a magic number, what if the third marriage truly is the final? lol

Aegon could promise, then brake his promise like Robb did.  Littlefinger's wagon is hitched to the Lannisters first through past advancement and now the Tyrells to an extent due to dealings with the Queen of Thorns. The Vale will wait to see how the trials go in K.L and a battle the Tyrells will almost have to fight against Aegon before deciding. This plays into my reasoning that either Sansa or Jeyne Westerling are "the younger, more beautiful Queen that will take down Cersei. Jeyne is already a queen, Sansa could be now too, the Iron Throne no less. Littlefinger ought to really help out Stannis with the Vale armies since Stannis will need his money skills to help repay the Iron Bank.

[Spencer Brown]

No one has even mentioned the new military orders of "the faith", there are now huged armies amassed near kings landing with no one but the high septon to tell them what to do. what roll will they play? They will probably be more powerful than any single of the seven kingdoms right now with an exception for the vale (better steel in the vale) and would they back anyone not supporting the "seven" and if so why?

[Lord Damian]

Spencer Brown, on 09 March 2012 - 04:36 PM, said:

No one has even mentioned the new military orders of "the faith", there are now huged armies amassed near kings landing with no one but the high septon to tell them what to do. what roll will they play? They will probably be more powerful than any single of the seven kingdoms right now with an exception for the vale (better steel in the vale) and would they back anyone not supporting the "seven" and if so why?

The High Septon may be the new Kingmaker. If Aegon promises faith and devotion, they may throw in with him. Although, the faith I think also want justice for the Red Wedding

[Spencer Brown]

Lord Damian, on 10 March 2012 - 01:25 AM, said:

The High Septon may be the new Kingmaker. If Aegon promises faith and devotion, they may throw in with him. Although, the faith I think also want justice for the Red Wedding

True, but the original aegon had to submit to the faith to be annointed by the high septon in old town, and generally excepted as a "pious man" throughout the seven kingdoms. Knowing this, Aegon or YG, would have to do a lot of "favors" very possibly military ones, to "prove his faith" and could result in him losing a lot of strength, or support if he has to carry out missions for the faith just to be annointed.
Lord damien, im glad you picked up on it, All these posts about armies and everyone forgets that the faith has probably 30-50 thousand armed peasants and maybe about 10,000 pious knights (warriors sons) and this force could truly be devastating and might be the only one equal in force to the golden company or knights of the vale, all three orders and yet ublooded, but in in no way green. it is known.