234 replies to this topic

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Buried Treasure, on 17 March 2012 - 01:16 PM, said:

For starters it relies on Illyrio happening to have a child of roughly the right age. Also, when Tyrion asks if Illyrio wants to be rewarded with a position on the small council he responds by saying he has a fine manse and wealth in Pentos which he would not want to give up for a draughty Westerosi hall. Is it not natural for a man to want his son to openly be his own heir? He could give his child wealth and comfort with none of the dangers of being a pretender for a throne. When the real Aegon died Illyrio's hypothetical son would have also been around a year old & already loved, would Illyrio really have decided then to use him in this plot that will require sending him away and never letting him know his true parentage?

I think wanting to make his own son King of the Seven Kingdoms (perhaps out of love for his deceased Blackfyre wife) makes more sense than any other reason Illyrio would be meddling in the affairs of Westeros. You believe he is fake but do not believe he is a Blackfyre. If so, doesn't it still make more sense to you that he is Illyrio's non-Blackfyre son? I just don't see why Illyrio is involved in Westeros if he doesn't have a personal interest.

Edited by OnionAhaiReborn, 17 March 2012 - 01:27 PM.

[the Scorpion Knight]

OnionAhaiReborn, on 17 March 2012 - 01:26 PM, said:

I think wanting to make his own son King of the Seven Kingdoms (perhaps out of love for his deceased Blackfyre wife) makes more sense than any other reason Illyrio would be meddling in the affairs of Westeros. You believe he is fake but do not believe he is a Blackfyre. If so, doesn't it still make more sense to you that he is Illyrio's non-Blackfyre son? I just don't see why Illyrio is involved in Westeros if he doesn't have a personal interest.

Glory. Immorltaly. the thieves who stole the kingdom and gave them back. that's why I think varys and illyrio Do it.

[Buried Treasure]

OnionAhaiReborn, on 17 March 2012 - 01:26 PM, said:

I think wanting to make his own son King of the Seven Kingdoms (perhaps out of love for his deceased Blackfyre wife) makes more sense than any other reason Illyrio would be meddling in the affairs of Westeros. You believe he is fake but do not believe he is a Blackfyre. If so, doesn't it still make more sense to you that he is Illyrio's non-Blackfyre son? I just don't see why Illyrio is involved in Westeros if he doesn't have a personal interest.

He loves his son so much he makes up schemes that mean he can never acknowledge his parentage?  A Blackfyre son of Illyrio would have a terrible claim as king of Westeros - he has to go through the female line at least twice just to get back to the main Blackfyre line, which was itself founded 100 years ago by a bastard.  This hypothetical son would have a better chance at security & power as the acknowled son of Illyrio. Among the nobility of Pentos he would have his fathers merchant wealth and his mothers blood of foreign kings (which would be enough to make him glamorous but not dangerous to Pentoshi aristocracy).

Not knowing Illyio and Varys' true motives (especially at this stage of the story where it would give away too much) bothers me less than giving Illyrio the motive of backing his Blackfyre son. It requires too many coincidences for it to be a plausible theory for me:
- He just happens to have a son  the right age?
- He purchases a slave and falls in love & it turns out she is a noble line & he believes her? Or do you not think she was a slave, because if not why did he tell Tyrion of having access to the palace until he married one of his slaves?

I think Illyio is involved in Westeros because his friend Varys is involved in Westeros. He's an ambitious schemer, if it wasn't Westeros it would be somewhere else.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Buried Treasure, on 17 March 2012 - 02:14 PM, said:

He loves his son so much he makes up schemes that mean he can never acknowledge his parentage?  A Blackfyre son of Illyrio would have a terrible claim as king of Westeros - he has to go through the female line at least twice just to get back to the main Blackfyre line, which was itself founded 100 years ago by a bastard.  This hypothetical son would have a better chance at security & power as the acknowled son of Illyrio. Among the nobility of Pentos he would have his fathers merchant wealth and his mothers blood of foreign kings (which would be enough to make him glamorous but not dangerous to Pentoshi aristocracy).

I meant to set aside the issue of Blackfyres for a moment and just talk about the Illyrio's son aspect of the Young Griff equation. But speaking to the Blackfyre angle, what Illyrio wants for his son is also colored by what Serra wants for her son. So if Serra is a Blackfyre, she may have wanted Aegon on the throne. She may have cared about putting a Blackfyre on the throne. I see no reason to assume that Illyrio should only want security and power for his son, he is ambitious and devoted to his wife and that's why he wants his son to have more than just security, he wants him to be King of Westeros.

edit: I also think if Aegon does become King, and if he is a Blackfyre, that fact would be revealed to him after he was on the Throne. I won't say that they would tell all of Westeros, but I do believe they would tell him. Because what is he going to do about it after he knows? Certainly he isn't going to abdicate the Throne at that point.

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Not knowing Illyio and Varys' true motives (especially at this stage of the story where it would give away too much) bothers me less than giving Illyrio the motive of backing his Blackfyre son. It requires too many coincidences for it to be a plausible theory for me:
- He just happens to have a son  the right age?
- He purchases a slave and falls in love & it turns out she is a noble line & he believes her? Or do you not think she was a slave, because if not why did he tell Tyrion of having access to the palace until he married one of his slaves?

1) We don't know if Young Griff is the right age. Tyrion marks him as slightly younger than he should be if he is truly Aegon. Of course this could just be an issue of age being difficult to tell, but that's the point entirely: age is difficult to tell. We have no way of knowing if Young Griff does just happen to be exactly the same age as Aegon. But if it is a coincidence that they are the same age, it's a coincidence. I'd be ok with that. Stranger things have happened.

Varys' and Illyrio's plans have clearly changed over time, so while they were probably already scheming when Varys first went to King's Landing, it is unlikely that they had the specific scheme planned out of placing a son of Illyrio on the throne (who he would not yet have had at the time), in exactly the manner that we are seeing them try to put Young Griff in the throne now. But it seems pretty clear that Varys has been working on some (Blackfyre return) scheme for the whole time he has been in King's Landing.

2) I'm not sure exactly what the timeline is of Illyrio falling in love with Serra/purchasing her. Maybe he purchased and married her after he found out she was a Blackfyre? But more importantly, I'm assuming she has some sort of proof to offer of her lineage, perhaps something like Egg's 'boot' from the Dunk & Egg novellas.

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I think Illyio is involved in Westeros because his friend Varys is involved in Westeros. He's an ambitious schemer, if it wasn't Westeros it would be somewhere else.

I think 'just because' is a pretty weak motive. It's not impossible, but I do not think it is very likely that the conclusion of an entire series of wondering why Varys is doing what he is doing is just eunuchs be schemin' and Illyrio helps just because they're friends and he likes scheming too.

Edited by OnionAhaiReborn, 17 March 2012 - 02:46 PM.

[Caz]

I too am plagued by 'mummers dragon.'  However, I'm still sitting on the fence regarding the real/fake identity of Aegon.  As far as JC's concerned, I do think he either knows for certain or he has been suitably convinced that Aegon's the real thing because of his devotion to Rhaegar and the absolute guilt he has felt ever since the events of the rebellion.  If anyone would be thrilled to see Rhaegar's son on the Iron throne, it would be him as he appeared to adore his (maybe/maybe not) father.

[Buried Treasure]

OnionAhaiReborn, on 17 March 2012 - 02:36 PM, said:

1) We don't know if Young Griff is the right age. Tyrion marks him as slightly younger than he should be if he is truly Aegon. Of course this could just be an issue of age being difficult to tell, but that's the point entirely: age is difficult to tell. We have no way of knowing if Young Griff does just happen to be exactly the same age as Aegon. But if it is a coincidence that they are the same age, it's a coincidence. I'd be ok with that. Stranger things have happened.

The real Aegon would have been around 17/18, Tyrion guesses the Aegon he meets is around 15/16. If he is correct that means that when Jon C was introduced to a supposed 5 year-old he was actually accepting a child of about 3. Ages can be heard to guess accurately but I think the difference in a child that young would be fairly obvious. So I think Tyrion is more likely to have made the wrong guess than Jon C, and the fake Aegon was born within a few months of the real one.

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Varys' and Illyrio's plans have clearly changed over time, so while they were probably already scheming when Varys first went to King's Landing, it is unlikely that they had the specific scheme planned out of placing a son of Illyrio on the throne (who he would not yet have had at the time), in exactly the manner that we are seeing them try to put Young Griff in the throne now. But it seems pretty clear that Varys has been working on some (Blackfyre return) scheme for the whole time he has been in King's Landing.
....
I think 'just because' is a pretty weak motive. It's not impossible, but I do not think it is very likely that the conclusion of an entire series of wondering why Varys is doing what he is doing is just eunuchs be schemin' and Illyrio helps just because they're friends and he likes scheming too.

It's not 'pretty clear' to me what Varys has been up to the entire time he's been in Westeros, if it was I'd be able to make stonger guesses at his motive. I certainly think that will change before the end of the series, but if his motive was unambigious at this point in the story there wouldn't be much of a mystery. George is playing the truth of whether Aegon is real very close to his chest at the moment, and if he had already described Varys motive he would be spoiling the big reveal.

Varys is the one who's whole life is devoted to the Westeros scheme so I think he is more likely to be the one with the deeper motive. Illyrio is a merchant prince in Pentos with his fingers in many other pies, so his less extensive involvement may be merely to help his friend reach his goals.

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2) I'm not sure exactly what the timeline is of Illyrio falling in love with Serra/purchasing her. Maybe he purchased and married her after he found out she was a Blackfyre? But more importantly, I'm assuming she has some sort of proof to offer of her lineage, perhaps something like Egg's 'boot' from the Dunk & Egg novellas.

Given the way slavery is practiced in Essos I doubt she would be able to retain anything. If a slave did somehow have proof she were a Blackfyre she should have been able to get herself ransomed to the Golden Company long before she got sold as a bedslave.

[TheSpottedCat]

House of White and White, on 17 March 2012 - 10:19 AM, said:

  I'm 'processing' this theory as I write, and, it just came to me that if Aegon were a fake, then JC wouldn't be so determined to keep guiding/protecting him, determined to live long enough to fulfill this mission in spite of the greyscale he'd contracted.

I really like JC, even though we haven't had that much time to really get to know him.  The greyscale reference above, plus the fact that he was honorable and courageous to dive into those infested waters to save Tyrion, tells me that at least JC is 'the real thing' (i.e.,not an ambitious pretender trying to put a fake on the throne.)   I guess it's possible that he's just an honorable, courageous man who is deluded and just believes YG is Aegon, but somehow that just doesn't ring true to me -- JC is too smart/savy for that.

I'm certain Connington believes that Aegon/Young Griff is the real thing, judging from his POV. I'm pretty certain the boy himself believes he is Aegon VI. But JC could've been tricked. Sure, he's a smart guy, but he's also plagued by guilt about losing Robert in the Battle of the Bells, an act which he thinks cost Rhaegar his life. He loved Rhaegar very much (could there be something homoerotic there? He referred to him as his "silver prince"). He thinks that helping Aegon would drown his guilt and give him a chance to reedeem himself, and perhaps Aegon is a substitute for his lost prince. Also, how could he know for certain if the baby he was given to raise was the real prince? Griff had probably not seen little Aegon for a long time (he was exiled0 and babies grow very fast, plus their facial features aren't as distinct as those of older people.

[hombay]

Aegon is a Blackfyre Pretender. It is known!

Also, I'd like to point out that just because he is a Blackfyre it doesn't mean they want the realm to know. Doing so removes their claim to the throne.

Edited by hombay, 04 April 2012 - 11:25 AM.

[ishmael]

OnionAhaiReborn, on 17 March 2012 - 01:26 PM, said:

I think wanting to make his own son King of the Seven Kingdoms (perhaps out of love for his deceased Blackfyre wife) makes more sense than any other reason Illyrio would be meddling in the affairs of Westeros. You believe he is fake but do not believe he is a Blackfyre. If so, doesn't it still make more sense to you that he is Illyrio's non-Blackfyre son? I just don't see why Illyrio is involved in Westeros if he doesn't have a personal interest.

He is a rich merchant with no wants or needs to fulfill.  He has a friend who is working to eventually stabilize the Westrosi governement.  It could provide a future source of buisiness for him.  He is bored and is looking for something exciting to be involved in without exposing himself to any real danger.  Despite what he told V and D, there were never any of Robert's spies or assassins following them.  They were never in any danger from Robert, until she got preggers.  He has nothing to fear from being involved in the battle for the Iron Throne from across the the sea.  Nobody cared about the 2 Targs who were there and nobody is going to care about a fat merchant who maybe have provided money to Aegon, if his role is even known or discovered.

I have thought for a long time that Aegon survived Gregor's assault. But, the "Murmers(?sp) Dragon makes me question that belief some, because I don't know who else would be the false dragon.  Maybe DarkStar or someone else, but who?

[the Scorpion Knight]

ishmael, on 04 April 2012 - 10:33 AM, said:

I have thought for a long time that Aegon survived Gregor's assault. But, the "Murmers(?sp) Dragon makes me question that belief some, because I don't know who else would be the false dragon.  Maybe DarkStar or someone else, but who?

aurane waters appearing to dany and claiming to be aegon (there's no mention of him in jonC chapters)
mummer's dragon could also mean a real dragon in  possesion of a mummer
it could also mean a dragon claiming to be someone else

Edited by the Scorpion Knight, 04 April 2012 - 11:22 AM.

[Alric Stark]

I am starting to like the Aegon being real idea.  Here are some thoughts.

1) Maybe Visyers was the Mummer's Dragon as he was shetered and supported by Vary's for years.

2) Historically the Stark/Lannister was based on the War of the Roses and I believe that Henry VII came into the War as a late claimant, which would be similar to Aegon's late introduction.

3) Why would Tyrion guess it was Aegon. He has been an astute politico throughout the books. If he made the connection there has to be some familial resemblance more then being Ilyrio's son. I still (and mentioned this earlier with little to no traction) think the Lannisters might have hedged their bets and let Aegon get away/knew it wasn't the real deal hence the crushing of the skull to not be identified. This also could be why Tyrion was able to puzzle out his real identity.

I am probably wrong, but I went from hating the idea of Aegon being real to actually rooting for it....

[theguyfromtheVale]

1) Viserys feared Varys and had no direct contact to him. Had Viserys known of Illyrio's connection to Varys, he probably would never have accepted the invitation.

2) But real Aegon doesn't reconcile the Baratheon/Stark/Targaryen conflict the way the Tudors could. He's a pure Targaryen. On the other hand, Jon Snow would get the Targ loyalists and the Starks into the fold, and might convince the last Baratheon pretender, since Stannis approves of Jon's way of ruling. So really,  Jon is the Henry VII figure here.

3) Tyrion was 9 when Robert's Rebellion occurred, and it's unlikely he was in KL at that time. So really, he never would have seen Aegon the baby. And Tyrion has his doubts about Aegon; the 'official' line on Aegon is his reward for winning his cyvasse game against Haldon.

[Bolivar]

I like Aegon a lot, I wanna believe he's real, but he probably is a Blackfyre Pretender. The Golden Company was founded to unify the retainers of House Blackfyre after a lot of them began joining separate companies. The GC probably hated the pure Targaryens more than anyone, so why would they all of a sudden want to restore its line? There is the fact that many of them are royalist exiles from Robert's Rebellion, and all of them want to go home, some to reclaim ancestral lands, so it is possible for them to support a Targaryen. But I still think it would contradict their raison d'etre.

It occurred to me that maybe Varys is actually a woman, a scion of House Blackfyre, and Aegon is Illyrio and Varys' kid. That's kinda sick, but it's possible.

Edited by Bolivar, 04 April 2012 - 01:35 PM.

[the Scorpion Knight]

theguyfromtheVale, on 04 April 2012 - 11:59 AM, said:

2) But real Aegon doesn't reconcile the Baratheon/Stark/Targaryen conflict the way the Tudors could. He's a pure Targaryen. On the other hand, Jon Snow would get the Targ loyalists and the Starks into the fold, and might convince the last Baratheon pretender, since Stannis approves of Jon's way of ruling. So really,  Jon is the Henry VII figure here.

who's left of the baratheons: stannis and shireen who bears no pelicular grugde against them and the starks  never had a grudge and aegon isn't the grugdebearing type of person
actually the grudge exist only for Robert(who's dead) and dany who's far away

[theguyfromtheVale]

Stannis was besieged for a year by Targ loyalists. Maybe he doesn't hold that particular grudge, but he sure seems to think Robert was right to rebel.

And the Starks should bear no grudge against the Targs? Perhaps Ned doesn't, at least not against all of them, because he knows about R+L. But the Aerys killed Ned's father and brother, and officially, Rhaegar killed Lyanna. And all the Stark children know...

Lastly, there's the Lannister/Baratheon line, who have all the reasons in the world not to trust the Targaryens... not after the Sack.

[GrandPoobah]

I think that Varys was the son of some Blackfyre of historical significance, and that his castration by a mage may play a part in his story/motivations.

I've always thought that if Varys/Illyrio really wanted to put the likes of Viserys on the Iron Throne they'd have done something significant to get him there. Tying him to the Dothraki (who won't/can't cross the ocean) seemed to be intentionally tying both of them down in Essos. In actuality, they may well have been planning the elimination of Viserys, knowing how he'd likely cause offense. I really don't think Dany was much more than an afterthought for them.

[dtones520]

GrandPoobah, on 04 April 2012 - 02:56 PM, said:

I think that Varys was the son of some Blackfyre of historical significance, and that his castration by a mage may play a part in his story/motivations.

I've always thought that if Varys/Illyrio really wanted to put the likes of Viserys on the Iron Throne they'd have done something significant to get him there. Tying him to the Dothraki (who won't/can't cross the ocean) seemed to be intentionally tying both of them down in Essos. In actuality, they may well have been planning the elimination of Viserys, knowing how he'd likely cause offense. I really don't think Dany was much more than an afterthought for them.

That still doesnt explain how Aegon is a Blackfyre.

Everyones theories about Aegon being a Blackfyre stem from knowledge aquired from the Dunk and Egg novellas. There is not much history about the Blackfyres in the ASOIAF series, so the average reader really has no idea who the Blackfyres are. I personally have yet to read them. So my knowledge about them stems from this site and wiki. My point is, GRRM is going to have to do a major history lesson on the Blackfyres in TWOW if Aegon is really a BF. If he doesnt, he is going to have a hell of a lot of confused readers.

I think that Aegon is real and that the Mummer's Dragon line refers to him being Varys' dragon. Keep in mind he is in the same sentence ad the Sun's Sun. Both being possessive. The sun being Doran the Son being Quentyn. For Aegon the mummer is Varys, the Dragon is Aegon. Him being a blackfyre does make him a dragon, but, again, we dont get hardly any Blackfyre history in any of the books. Only the novellas.

[dtones520]

double post, sorry

Edited by dtones520, 04 April 2012 - 03:31 PM.

[dtones520]

Sorry, accidental triple post with the site not loading.

Edited by dtones520, 04 April 2012 - 03:30 PM.

[Dragonfish]

dtones520, on 04 April 2012 - 03:09 PM, said:

Everyones theories about Aegon being a Blackfyre stem from knowledge aquired from the Dunk and Egg novellas. There is not much history about the Blackfyres in the ASOIAF series, so the average reader really has no idea who the Blackfyres are. I personally have yet to read them. So my knowledge about them stems from this site and wiki. My point is, GRRM is going to have to do a major history lesson on the Blackfyres in TWOW if Aegon is really a BF. If he doesnt, he is going to have a hell of a lot of confused readers.

The Blackfyres have been mentioned a few times in the past (though admittedly not enough to make a great impression on the average reader). One of the stories in which they are mentioned also brings up one of best pieces of evidence in favor of the Aegon=Blackfyre theory: a black dragon sign washing ashore rusted red. In addition, we know that in the original version of the ADWD chapter in which Tyrion and Illyrio travel along the road, there was much, much more exposition about the history of the Blackfyres. Some have theorized that George took this exposition out because it would have made things too obvious. Regardless, I'm betting we'll get more info on the Blackfyres in future books, even if only to better explain the Golden Company's background.

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I think that Aegon is real and that the Mummer's Dragon line refers to him being Varys' dragon. Keep in mind he is in the same sentence ad the Sun's Sun. Both being possessive. The sun being Doran the Son being Quentyn. For Aegon the mummer is Varys, the Dragon is Aegon.

Two issues with this:

1) Ther term "mummer's" as been used in the past to imply fraudulence or insincerity. Specifically, in ASOS Dany refers to another character's fake tears as being "mummer's tears." This character (I think it was Xaro) is not a mummer, so clearly she is not saying that his tears belong to a mummer, but rather that he sadness is insincere. That is partly why the idea that "mummer's dragon" is a purely possessive term has always seemed off the mark to me.

2) The vision of the mummer's dragon in the HotU is associated with the line "slayer of lies", so clearly there must be something fraudulent about him. It seems like people conveniently forget this almost every time the mummer's dragon issue comes up.