Posted 04 April 2012 - 05:56 PM
FWIW, Daemon Blackfyre is pretty darn Targaryen. His father was Aegon IV, and his mother was Daena Targaryen, Aegon's first cousin and herself a daughter of Aegon III and "an unknown Velaryon." (That's Aurane Water's family.) The first generation of Blackfyre children had all the Targaryen traits – blond hair, purple eyes, prophetic dreams and occasional madness. So even if someone from Daemon Blackfyre's line takes the throne, the Targs are back.
In favor of Aegon being real: Varys may be good at several things, but his greatest skill, it seems, is sneaking people and things in and out of the Red Keep. Considering that he had just walked Tyrion out of the black cells, I found Tyrion's skepticism about the baby switch a little surprising. And we know something Tyrion doesn't, and that is that Varys has no scruples about using children in his schemes (his "little birds"). He probably thought the women were safe, and it really would have been smart to keep Elia and Rhaenys as hostages, and when Rhaenys was old enough, to marry her to Robert's son. That marriage would have had neutralized Viserys and Danaerys as threats, kept Dorne happy, and given the Baratheon (heh, Lannister) dynasty some legitimacy.
In favor of Aegon being false: There's Dany's vision in the House of the Undead, that tells Dany that she's the "slayer of lies" and shows the "mummer's dragon." If that's not a blinking neon arrow pointing to Aegon as a fake, I don't know what is, and I'm sorry for it, because we've been introduced to a character we pretty much know is doomed, so basically his entire story arc is a waste of time – unless lots of Lannisters, Tyrells, etc., etc., die with him.
Varys is clearly smart enough to have contingency plans -- plan A is his Aegon, who might indeed be a Blackfyre, plans B and C were Viserys and Dany. Then Dany changed the game by hatching dragons and proving, without a doubt, that she's the Targaryen nuclear power. Dany, however, got seriously sidetracked, and I think it made perfect sense for Connington et al. to leave her dithering in Meereen and invade Westeros while the kingdom was still in chaos. The fact that Aegon is in Westeros might be motivation for Dany to get in gear and out of Meereen, too.