Has Varys always known Jon Snow's parents are R and L? (spoiler)

[BondJamesBond]

So, I am an HBO subscriber turned GRRM fan. I finished DwD a few weeks after it came out and just had a thought that forced me to start a profile here to see if others agree.

This thought rests on the premise that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son. I think this has been pretty exhaustively proven.

At the end of DwD, we see that Varys is a Targaryen loyalist who has been starting conflicts between Robert and his allies and later the other claimants to the iron thone while simultaneously nurturing Targaryen claimants to the throne, Viserys and Aegon. However, he seems to also have been keeping tabs on Jon. There is really no other explanation for why Varys wants to protect Ned at King's Landing. He wants Ned sent to the wall so he can return back with an army to install Jon Targaryen as king. The way Varys spoke about Rhaegar in the epilogue was almost worshipful and Varys clearly wants one of Rhaegars sons to rule, whether it be Aegon or Jon.

This has importance to the plot moving forward because Varys just has tomake sure Jon learns the truth and it will change everything (assuming he didn't die from being stabbed). Jon is becoming the leader of the north against the Boltons and he has developed a base of power to challenge for the iron throne.

When he took his vows, he knew he was giving up claim to Winterfell, but a contract is only valid if the parties know the terms and he never knew he would be giving up a claim to all the seven kingdoms, thereby invalidating his oath to the watch.

Will Jon meet Aegon and Dany at KL and decide amongst them how to rule or will they fight ech other? Who will Varys support in a fight between Jon and Aegon?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm about 95% convinced that Varys has no clue. Varys wanted Ned sent to the Wall to get him out of power but to keep him alive to prevent Robb from going to war with the Lannisters. It had absolutely nothing to do with Varys wanting Ned to help Jon build an army.

I think Dany and Aegon will almost certainly end up fighting each other but I don't see Jon getting involved in that.

[BondJamesBond]

Wow, you got his posted really quick. I was actually editing my post when you posted.

That's interesting though that you disagree. Do we think though that if Rhaegar had a son that Varys would not know it? Granted, his network of spies may not have been as good 18 years ago.

Varys supported the conflict between stark and lannister to weaken who he views as the usurper since both houses begin the story as supporters of king Robert.

HOWEVER, Varys wants Jon to have access to a fighting force just like he helped Viserys get the dothraki and he sent Aegon with Jon Connington.

[Turkey Jack]

At the end of DwD, we see that Varys is a Targaryen loyalist who has been starting conflicts between Robert and his allies and later the other claimants to the iron thone while simultaneously nurturing Targaryen claimants to the throne, Viserys and Aegon.

You know Varys is lying when you see his lips move, as for wanting to keep Ned alive he was simply doing what Illyrio wanted and delay.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Do we think though that if Rhaegar had a son that Varys would not know it?

Yes.

Varys supported the conflict between stark and lannister to weaken who he views as the usurper since both houses begin the story as supporters of king Robert.

Yeah?

HOWEVER, Varys wants Jon to have access to a fighting force just like he helped Viserys get the dothraki and he sent Aegon with Jon Connington.

Where's the evidence of this?

ETA: Varys wanted a war but he wanted it when and how he wanted. Robb Stark jumping the gun and going to war would have ruined those plans. That's why he persuaded Cersei to cut a deal with Ned to send Ned to the Wall — he'd be kept alive but he'd lose his authority and power. Sending people to the Wall is common practice in that society in lieu of the death penalty. It had nothing to do with Varys knowing any about Jon or wanting Jon to march on King's Landing, and it was not out of any friendship or affection Varys had for Ned. It was beneficial to Varys (and Cersei) to keep Ned alive. That's it.

[BondJamesBond]

I think Varys was being truthful when he told Kevan his intentions. He had no reason to lie since Kevan was soon to be dead. He places Rhaegar on a pedestal and will do anything to help House Targaryen return to power.

Varys' strategy seems to be to have many sticks in the fire and one of them will pan out. He is not a micro-manager. The events in ASOIAF are too complex to micro-manage but they can be massaged and guided by a master manipulator like Varys.

Varys seems to go to gret lengths to Perdue Cersei not to kill Ned, it seems because he wants Ned to play a role in helping Jon. Visery's got khal droog. Jon was supposed to get Ned Stark.

[BondJamesBond]

(sorry for the typos -I'm on my iPad)

[The Last Direwolf]

I don't think Ned being sent to the Wall would be so he could help Jon claim the Iron Throne. Even if Jon marched south to claim his 'father's' rightful throne, the other lords of the Seven Kingdoms would not support him - he said the oath, and that means he cannot father children, marry or hold titles or lands. Ned being sent to the Wall was to appease the Starks so that the conflict could start at a time of Varys' choosing.

[Fred Stark]

This might sound out of topic..But if you see George's interview in TIFF posted few hours ago..George was explaining about families in westeros and almost accidentally told that Dany is the last Targaryen and he looks as though he was hiding his expression after he said that..maybe he was just refering Dany as the last one in general or did he wrongly revealed Aegon is not a targaryen and he is fake....watch the video and tell me what you guys think...

[BondJamesBond]

Remember though the Starks are already at open war with the Lannisters at this point. King Robert's grave is still fresh. King Joffrey is a boy. Robb has already allied with the Freys and Tullys at this point and he could pick up more allies with Varys' meddling. He says, "boys have been conquerors before," to an incredulous Ned who doesn't believe Robb can win. Varys seems to be trying to persuade Ned to fight.

In this chaos is the perfect time for a Targaryen restoration. Robb's death at the red wedding is a fatal blow to Varys ambition on this front but at least he didn't get a literal gold crown so Varys can now keep Jon as a card to be played at a later time. He just needs to get Jon to know the truth and manipulate him in the right direction at a time of varys' choosing.

[The Last Direwolf]

Remember though the Starks are already at open war with the Lannisters at this point. King Robert's grave is still fresh. King Joffrey is a boy. Robb has already allied with the Freys and Tullys at this point and he could pick up more allies with Varys' meddling. He says, "boys have been conquerors before," to an incredulous Ned who doesn't believe Robb can win. Varys seems to be trying to persuade Ned to fight.

No he wasn't. Minor skirmishes had taken place in the Riverlands, but no true war had yet arisen. It was Ned's execution that prompted Robb Stark to march south, and it wasn't until then that the Tully/Frey/Stark alliance was born.

Varys wasn't trying to inspire Ned to fight, he was trying to persuade him to confess, for his family's sake. By confessing and being sent to the Wall, he could stop Robb from doing something that he considered extremely dangerous - starting a war with the Lannisters. He was being persuaded to confess so that he could save his family, and preserve the peace until it is convenient to Varys/Illyrio to start a civil war.

In this chaos is the perfect time for a Targaryen restoration. Robb's death at the red wedding is a fatal blow to Varys ambition on this front but at least he didn't get a literal gold crown so Varys can now keep Jon as a card to be played at a later time. He just needs to get Jon to know the truth and manipulate him in the right direction at a time of varys' choosing.

Again, none of the Great Houses would support a deserter of the Nights Watch.

EDIT: Even if Ned wasn't dead when Robb marched south, Joffrey letting Ned join the Night's Watch would have stopped the war.

[deleted01]

This might sound out of topic..But if you see George's interview in TIFF posted few hours ago..George was explaining about families in westeros and almost accidentally told that Dany is the last Targaryen and he looks as though he was hiding his expression after he said that..maybe he was just refering Dany as the last one in general or did he wrongly revealed Aegon is not a targaryen and he is fake....watch the video and tell me what you guys think...

Yeah there was a thread about this but it got shut down, I think? Anyway, he said 'the Targaryens are practically all wiped out except for Dany' - note practically. This could mean that Aegon is fake, that he said that because he didn't want to give too many spoilers away from later books (I think the thing was mainly a Game of Thrones thing, not ASOIAF), or that Dany is the last Targaryen that we know of. Besides, isn't Bloodraven Targaryen?

Also, Robb Stark marched south before Ned was beheaded - he was marching south to free Ned, and had already fought and captured Jaime, when word came that Ned had been executed.

[The Last Direwolf]

Also, Robb Stark marched south before Ned was beheaded - he was marching south to free Ned, and had already fought and captured Jaime, when word came that Ned had been executed.

Ah, sorry. It's been a while since I read AGoT. :wacko:

[Stark@heart]

I don't think Vary's has shown any interest in Jon. Which is interesting, because how could he not know? He's Varys. If it happened before he gained enough power to have his little birds everwhere then there had to atleast be rumors. The rumor is that Jon is Ned's son by Ashara Dayne and she threw herself from a tower (really?) Was that before or after Ned took her baby? That we get the name from Catelyn and then the story from Cersei.

There had to be rumors going around about Lyana's fate in the Tower of Joy as well. Why is it called the TOJ? There has to be a story or several. Throw in a new born babe taken North. Did Lady Dayne actually off herself or did she leave the Seven Kingdoms as a ruined woman or scorned to be turn up later in the company of a Targ claiment? Not my own theory but one with alot of followers and some traction.

What about Petyr? Surely he would have had a great deal of interest in Ned Stark's bastard for the gloat factor alone.

I think we're bound to hear more of Jon's story or the stories surrounding Jon in the upcoming book. Lady Dustin likes to tell tales. If only she had someone to share with :drunk:

[James Arryn]

I think Varys was being truthful when he told Kevan his intentions. He had no reason to lie since Kevan was soon to be dead. He places Rhaegar on a pedestal and will do anything to help House Targaryen return to power.

Varys may have loved Rhaegar, but do we know Rhaegar loved Verys? it seems clear that Raegar knew his father's reign had gone off the deep end and needed to be changed. It would be only natural for him to want someone to share the blame for the wreck his father had become.

[deleted01]

Ah, sorry. It's been a while since I read AGoT. :wacko:

No worries, I only remembered because I re-watched those scenes of the TV show like 20 times :lol:

[deleted01]

Why are we assuming that Varys didn't know anything about Jon? There must have been a good reason for him wanting to save Ned. Varys knows a lot, and Littlefinger even more sometimes (though I doubt he knew about this). I think Varys knew, and it's likely that he wanted to keep Ned alive and on side so he could support the Targaryens if/when they came back. Ned would never stand against his sisters' son if Jon found out who he was, and chose to try to take the throne from the Lannisters. I think we would have had another Stannis situation if Robert had still been on the throne, and Jon had wanted to challenge him. Ned would know that Jon is the rightful heir, and he is his nephew, but Robert is his best friend, as close as brothers - difficult choice, but I don't think he would have turned his back on his own flesh and blood. This is why Varys might have wanted him to be on the Wall - as a Stark, he'd be more likely to be able to get away with deserting and helping his nephew claim the throne, or even aiding Jon in helping Dany/Aegon to claim the throne, because it would be the right thing to do, something Ned is known for.

Mostly speculation on my part, of course - I've yet to come to the Aegon bits on my reread.

[a free shadow]

I think you are opperating on false premises. Varys does not place Targaryens on a pedestal. He schemes for Aegon who is very very likely half a Blackfyre fathered by Illyrio. He angles things for his own personal gain. He most likely helped Viserys to attach himself to the Dothraki only for the reason that the savages would invade Westeros and weaken it before "the savior" Aegon arrives.

As for Varys knowing about Jon at all, I think it is very unlikely. His main power in the KL springs from secret passages, tunnels etc. The Tower of Joy is a different matter.

[BondJamesBond]

Again, none of the Great Houses would support a deserter of the Nights Watch.

Given that he is secretly Rhaegars son, I don't think most would view it as a simple desertion. I addressed the issue in my first post though. Additionally, the great houses are persuaded by leadership and personality and not just the rules. The Blackfyre rebellion and Roberts rebellion are perfect examples of this as would be the support renly received over Stannis.

[The Last Direwolf]

Given that he is secretly Rhaegars son, I don't think most would view it as a simple desertion. I addressed the issue in my first post though. Additionally, the great houses are persuaded by leadership and personality and not just the rules. The Blackfyre rebellion and Roberts rebellion are perfect examples of this as would be the support renly received over Stannis.

Perhaps you could be right, but I don't think that Jon's place is sitting a throne in Kings Landing - his place is at the forefront of the fight against the Others, and at the moment that is at the Wall.

And why should any of the Great Houses support Jon over Dany or 'Aegon'? Dany and 'Aegon' were both legitimate children, born out of marriage and containing pure Targ blood, Dany has dragons and 'Aegon' is probably a gifted commander. Jon is just a diluted, bastard-ish version of a Targaryen, who would be breaking every oath he ever took by trying to claim a throne and could be construed by some as an attempt for the Starks to increase their power and influence. I just don't think Jon is or wants to be a strong contender for the Iron Throne