Has Varys always known Jon Snow's parents are R and L? (spoiler)

[Falrinn]

I don't think Varys knows about Jon. He might know that Lyanna was pregnant with Rhaegar's child, but he would of had no way of knowing whether the child was actually born alive or that it was a boy.

As for Ned showing up at Winterfell after the war with a "bastard", Varys would of likely assumed Ned had fathered Jon in a moment of weakness and decided to raise him in Winterfell as a means of personal atonement. Sure he might of had his suspicions on the subject, but without having anyway of knowing for sure he never would of made it a vital part of his plans.

[BondJamesBond]

I think you are opperating on false premises. Varys does not place Targaryens on a pedestal. He schemes for Aegon who is very very likely half a Blackfyre fathered by Illyrio. He angles things for his own personal gain. He most likely helped Viserys to attach himself to the Dothraki only for the reason that the savages would invade Westeros and weaken it before "the savior" Aegon arrives.

As for Varys knowing about Jon at all, I think it is very unlikely. His main power in the KL springs from secret passages, tunnels etc. The Tower of Joy is a different matter.

The KG live at kings landing and sir barristan joined Roberts KG so Varys little birds could certainly have heard about a son of Rhaegar at some point. Also, Varys hears about things happening everywhere in weteros and Essos so he could certainly have heard about this.

Is there any special relationship between Varys and Illyrio?

It seems a bit far fetched to have an invasion of dothraki to soften things up for a fake Aegon. Plus, Aegon would have to have Targaryen or dornish traits and Jon Connington would have to be played for a sucker to give up 18 years of his life raising a fake Aegon.

Plus, even if Illyrio fathered a fake Aegon, Illyrio only benefits if the boy sees him as his father but Jon Connington raised him.

Plus, it seems a bit far fetched for anyone even Varys to spend 18 years plotting for monetary gain. No, Varys loves Rhaegar and truly does serve his conception of the realm as he told Ned in the dungeons.

[deleted01]

I think you are opperating on false premises. Varys does not place Targaryens on a pedestal. He schemes for Aegon who is very very likely half a Blackfyre fathered by Illyrio.

Wait, what? Where does this come from? I know I missed a hell of a lot, hence my reread, but is Illyrio even capable of fathering children? :ack:

Perhaps you could be right, but I don't think that Jon's place is sitting a throne in Kings Landing - his place is at the forefront of the fight against the Others, and at the moment that is at the Wall.

And why should any of the Great Houses support Jon over Dany or 'Aegon'? Dany and 'Aegon' were both legitimate children, born out of marriage and containing pure Targ blood, Dany has dragons and 'Aegon' is probably a gifted commander. Jon is just a diluted, bastard-ish version of a Targaryen, who would be breaking every oath he ever took by trying to claim a throne and could be construed by some as an attempt for the Starks to increase their power and influence. I just don't think Jon is or wants to be a strong contender for the Iron Throne

Jon would unite the north and the south, Starks and Targaryens, ice and fire. He would fulfill Rhaegars' prophecy and (hopefully) bring peace to Westeros. I'm not saying this is what I want to happen, but that's what I imagine him doing if he did take the Iron Throne. He is known in the land, coming from an honourable family and serving as LC in the NW. If he outright deserts, I think there'd be some trouble, but if there's some warging/R'hllor magic/Undead stuff going on, the reaction would be a bit trickier to predict. On the other hand, Dany has dragons, and

Aegon has Dorne, if I remember correctly from the gift chapter?

But nobody knows them. They've both been out of Westeros, if Aegon is real, for their whole lives. That makes a difference to people, I think. They've probably had enough of war and the 'who has the right to rule' bollocks - if Jon would unite all aspects of the kingdom, I think they'd go for him, dragons or no.

I don't think he'll take the Iron Throne anyway, but we shall see on that one.

[BondJamesBond]

To clarify,I am not saying Jon would try to become king but only that he will likely be tempted by it or tempted to help aegon or dany when varies decides to manipulate him. The point of my post is that Varys has plans for Jon.

[deleted01]

To clarify,I am not saying Jon would try to become king but only that he will likely be tempted by it or tempted to help aegon or dany when varies decides to manipulate him. The point of my post is that Varys has plans for Jon.

But where is Varys? I don't think he's even seen Jon. Sorry for derailing, I went off on one a bit above :lol: What plans do you think Varys might have for Jon?

[The Last Direwolf]

The KG live at kings landing and sir barristan joined Roberts KG so Varys little birds could certainly have heard about a son of Rhaegar at some point. Also, Varys hears about things happening everywhere in weteros and Essos so he could certainly have heard about this.

Is there any special relationship between Varys and Illyrio?

It seems a bit far fetched to have an invasion of dothraki to soften things up for a fake Aegon. Plus, Aegon would have to have Targaryen or dornish traits and Jon Connington would have to be played for a sucker to give up 18 years of his life raising a fake Aegon.

Plus, even if Illyrio fathered a fake Aegon, Illyrio only benefits if the boy sees him as his father but Jon Connington raised him.

Plus, it seems a bit far fetched for anyone even Varys to spend 18 years plotting for monetary gain. No, Varys loves Rhaegar and truly does serve his conception of the realm as he told Ned in the dungeons.

Why is it far fetched to have an invasion of Dothraki to make the way for Aegon? Their brutality would make Aegon seem merciful and compassionate, as well as fighting for the people.

Varys loving Rhaegar isn't all that likely. By installing a fake Targ on the throne, Varys would have far more influence than he has at present, and possibly might even be presented with lands to become a proper Lord instead of having an empty title. You would be surprised the lengths men would go to for power and such.

[James Arryn]

And why should any of the Great Houses support Jon over Dany or 'Aegon'?

Well, for one thing, because the North would almost certainly support him over the other 2 due to Stark blood...assuming dragons aren't the only trump card in the game.

[James Arryn]

Why is it far fetched to have an invasion of Dothraki to make the way for Aegon? Their brutality would make Aegon seem merciful and compassionate, as well as fighting for the people.

Don't see it. Way too problematic. RIsks outweight supposed benefits, and either way it overlooks the fact that the plan had been to unite Dani and Aegon until Dani unexpected squatted on Slaver's Bay.

[deleted01]

The dragons are a tricky one - if they're still too small by the time/if Dany ever reaches Westeros, they wouldn't be much good. If they're too big and as unruly as they are now, nobody would love her for it. I think the icing on the cake for Dany would be to have her dragon riders and/or '3 heads of the dragon' as people from different houses - for example Tyrion, Arya and Dany herself, uniting the kingdom again. That's the point, I believe; Westeros will either be united by someone, something or some act, or it will split again, into a north/south divide at the very least. But here I am going off track again..

Does Aegon have a Dothraki army then? This is why rereads are recommended :lol: It also suggests that Aegon would be able to control the Dothraki - not only would the citizens of Westeros not be happy with being invaded by a foreign army, but if he can't control them, he'd never win their love. Unless he means to just kill everyone in the path to the Iron Throne, in which case he may just win.

[The Last Direwolf]

Well, for one thing, because the North would almost certainly support him over the other 2 due to Stark blood...assuming dragons aren't the only trump card in the game.

The North is a spent force. Their support would mean diddly squat in the grand scheme of things. Coupled with the Vale and the Riverlands (through Sansa's claims by marriage and blood), Jon could perhaps make a claim. But Aegon on the other hand has Dorne, the Stormlands and probably at some point in the future, the Reach. The Reach and Dorne have barely seen any fighting, and the Reach is the most populous and fertile region, so that could tip the scales hugely in Aegon's favour.

[BondJamesBond]

But where is Varys? I don't think he's even seen Jon. Sorry for derailing, I went off on one a bit above :lol: What plans do you think Varys might have for Jon?

He doesn't really know Dany or Aegon either though. I think he has multiple candidates in mind for a targ restoration and Jon has to be one of them. Viserys showed us that not everyone will pan out so it's good to have lots of back-ups. The only problem is what happens with multiple targ rivals.

What I think will happen is Aegon will need major help and Varys may try to recruit Jon to lead the north in support of Aegon. Of course, if Aegon dies then Jon can step in and it's all good from Varys perspective. Bottom line, Aegon needs allies and a half brother who could rule the north would be a strong ally.

Jon will have to choose as master Aemon once told him.

[James Arryn]

The North is a spent force. Their support would mean diddly squat in the grand scheme of things.

Maybe, but they certainly weren't when you have Varys hooking Vis/Dani up with the Dothraki to serve as an appetizer for Aegon.

[deleted01]

The North is a spent force. Their support would mean diddly squat in the grand scheme of things. Coupled with the Vale and the Riverlands (through Sansa's claims by marriage and blood), Jon could perhaps make a claim. But Aegon on the other hand has Dorne, the Stormlands and probably at some point in the future, the Reach. The Reach and Dorne have barely seen any fighting, and the Reach is the most populous and fertile region, so that could tip the scales hugely in Aegon's favour.

I think you're largely undermining the strength of the north. Let's not forget the wildlings - who's to say they won't want to kick some Ramsay/Frey/Ironborn arse, leaving Jon to take the majority of the northern forces south? He could get the Vale through Sansa, the Riverlands too if he gets rid of those pesky Freys - we should not forget that all but one northern house refused to bend the knee to Stannis. They're regrouping, ready for when the time comes.

@BondJamesBond: Ah good point. That's plausible, but where does Dany come into that? Does she simply stay in Essos? Or are Aegon and Jon the other 2 heads of the dragon, the 'only two men in the world she can trust'? Very interesting, but a bit of a Targ-overload. And mayhaps we're giving Varys a little bit too much credit - he's only a eunuch, after all :P

[a free shadow]

The KG live at Kings Landing and sir barristan joined Roberts KG so Varys little birds could certainly have heard about a son of Rhaegar at some point.

The KG that went with Rhaegar never came back to tell the story. Ser Barristan was never at the TOJ and has no clue about Jon. There were very few people who knew: only Eddard and Howland Reed for certain. None of them have ever talked about their secret and least of all places at the KL.

Also, Varys hears about things happening everywhere in weteros and Essos so he could certainly have heard about this.

Varys hears what is the common talk. Name at least one occassion he had exceptional information not from the KL.

Is there any special relationship between Varys and Illyrio?

Of course there is. "As a young man, Illyrio was a poor bravo, living by his blade. After the young Varys arrived in Pentos they formed an unlikely friendship and worked together and became very rich" (Wikipedia puts it in less words than I could). They were/are scheming together for decades. Arya overheard them councelling when it is better to cause stirs.

It seems a bit far fetched to have an invasion of dothraki to soften things up for a fake Aegon.

Varys and Illyrio (again working together) most likely kept Viserys and Daenerys only as a front. It is likely that their plan A was to let Viserys and Daenerys die of frustration and/or old ages with the savages, because, as said many times, it was very unlikely for the Dothraki to invade. But Varys risked nothing, because if they would have invaded, Viserys was not fit to hold the power for long and all the great houses would have been weakened.

Plus, Aegon would have to have Targaryen or dornish traits and Jon Connington would have to be played for a sucker to give up 18 years of his life raising a fake Aegon.

We read that it is not at all uncommon for people in Essos to have Targaryen white hair or even purple eyes. It is also mentionede that Illyrio was married to a woman with these exact same traits and that he loved her very much. Jon Connington only saw Aegon when he was five or so years old and he believed what he wanted to believe, the man was ridden with guilt that he did not manage to save Rhaegar.

Plus, even if Illyrio fathered a fake Aegon, Illyrio only benefits if the boy sees him as his father but Jon Connington raised him.

Illyrio is rich beyond his needs. All he has now is ambition and maybe (if his wife was indeed a Blackfyre) a quest to place her blood on the throne. And even if he would want money, he would indeed benefit from all this. Because Aegon's circle is small and all these people have ties with Illyrio.

Plus, it seems a bit far fetched for anyone even Varys to spend 18 years plotting for monetary gain. No, Varys loves Rhaegar and truly does serve his conception of the realm as he told Ned in the dungeons.

It is only partially the gain of richness, it is the gain of power and Varys might well be a Blackfyre lolyalist.

[Jamie Lannister]

I think Varys is a little too invested in "Aegon" at this point to risk roping in other potential successors. Real or fake, Aegon is Varys's piece in the game of thrones. As it stands, Aegon is in a VERY good place; he has some incredibly strong allies, and one of the most powerful men in the realm on his side actively working to fuck over his enemies. Jon will probably be a spanner in his plans rather than a useful tool.

Besides, I love the irony of Eddard Stark -- the one we all mock for his gullibility and naivety -- whisking away and raising the son of Rhaegar Targaryen, without even the Spider himself having a clue.

I really don't think he knew.

[a free shadow]

@ Fire&Blood

Illyrio has shared with Tyrion that he was married to a Lysenne pillowhouse worker Serra. And he loved her dearly, only that she died because of the greyscale. Illyrio carries around her little portrait-thingy. And she was said to have blond silvery hair and purple (or maybe blue?) eyes. Something that a decendent of the Targaryens/Blackfyres would have. It is also more likely for the Golden Company to support a Blackfyre than an actual Targaryen, because their stated wish was "to put a Blackfyre in the Throne".

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The KG live at kings landing and sir barristan joined Roberts KG so Varys little birds could certainly have heard about a son of Rhaegar at some point. Also, Varys hears about things happening everywhere in weteros and Essos so he could certainly have heard about this.

The only three Kingsguard who were in any position to know that Rhaegar had a son were killed at the Tower of Joy. There would have been no news of Jon's birth to King's Landing, given that he was born at the time of the Sack or even soon after. The Tower of Joy was in an isolated area of Dorne and neither Varys nor any of his spies would have been in any position at all to infiltrate it. He can't hear about if no one talks about it.

Is there any special relationship between Varys and Illyrio?

They've had a partnership in the past and there's decent speculation that they have closer ties than that.

It seems a bit far fetched to have an invasion of dothraki to soften things up for a fake Aegon. Plus, Aegon would have to have Targaryen or dornish traits and Jon Connington would have to be played for a sucker to give up 18 years of his life raising a fake Aegon.

Not if you realize that Varys knows that Aegon isn't Aegon and is planning accordingly. And Young Griff does have Targ features, so he could be passed off as Aegon. But those features are common in Essos and in the Blackfyre line. And Connington only met this kid when he was like 5 years old, not when he was a baby. He wants him to be real and that's why he's willing to believe it.

Plus, it seems a bit far fetched for anyone even Varys to spend 18 years plotting for monetary gain. No, Varys loves Rhaegar and truly does serve his conception of the realm as he told Ned in the dungeons.

The thinking is that Varys isn't plotting for monetary gain, but because he's a Blackfyre loyalist. Big difference. And again, no evidence — none — that Rhaegar trusted Varys or confided in him in any way, or that Varys had any way at all to know what was going on in the Tower of Joy. The idea that "Varys knows everything, ergo he must know this" is not evidence.

I'm telling you, flat out, Varys does not know about Jon.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Double post.

[The Last Direwolf]

I think you're largely undermining the strength of the north. Let's not forget the wildlings - who's to say they won't want to kick some Ramsay/Frey/Ironborn arse, leaving Jon to take the majority of the northern forces south? He could get the Vale through Sansa, the Riverlands too if he gets rid of those pesky Freys - we should not forget that all but one northern house refused to bend the knee to Stannis. They're regrouping, ready for when the time comes.

I am not saying that the North has no strength, but the large part of their forces is either tied up in fighting the Freys/Boltons, or dead. Aegon on the other hand, already has support from Dorne, has virtually conquered the Stormlands and will probably very soon have the Reach so he will be in a strong enough position to make a claim very soon. Jon on the other hand, has to sort out all the shit that's going down in the North as well as waiting for Sansa to marry so he has the support of the Vale and the Riverlands, which could take a while.

I just want to say, I'm rooting for a Stark victory, whether it be Sansa's, Jon's or even Rickon's - I just can't see that Jon taking the throne with Varys' help is all that likely.

[James Arryn]

Besides, I love the irony of Eddard Stark -- the one we all mock for his gullibility and naivety -- whisking away and raising the son of Rhaegar Targaryen, without even the Spider himself having a clue.

I actually think it's evidence that Ned's honor is actually just that, rather than an inability to be pragmatic.

In this one instance where his honor (promise me, Ned) binds him to the pragmatic rather than against it...assuming Lyanna wasn't incredibly specific and detailed in terms of the hows and whys...Ned shows keen perception. Having made the promise to keep J's real id a secret, he probably quickly identifies Varys as the greatest threat to that secrecy, and chooses the only workable plan to foil him and his little birds: Tell exactly no one.

If the only living people who know are he and one person he can completely trust, and that person is someone he rarely if ever even talks to, let alone about R+L=J, there is nothing whatsoever for Varys to get ahold of. No 'secret' conversations to overhear. No one to bribe. No way in. If the premise of Vary's power is the fact that 'someone always talks', the foil is having no one talk.

And so even if for some reason warning bells went off about Ned's bastard child, after a decade and more of hearing nothing, Varys would have no real option but to assume there's nothing to hear.