116 replies to this topic

[Ygrain]

Apple Martini, on 09 April 2012 - 01:51 AM, said:

He could be declared actually dead and get out of it that way.  

I think the whole backstabbing plot was there just to relieve him of the oath, which holds only until his death.

And Varys definitely does not serve the realm. Had he, he wouldn't have fuelled Aerys' paranoia against Rhaegar.

[Sandsnake17]

Apple Martini, on 09 April 2012 - 02:04 AM, said:

I agree that Varys has a good sense of what he's doing. That doesn't mean that he isn't rooting for one faction (probably the Blackfyres) above another at the expense of the realm's peace, and it doesn't mean he knows anything about Jon.

I highly doubt he knows anything about Jon. If Jon is who everyone thinks he is, Lyanna made Ned promise to keep him a secret. And if the other 2-3 people who are suspected to know, really do know about Jon, they aren't the type to would blabber to Varys or anyone for that matter...

[Ygrain]

I think that for establishing what Varys may or may not have suspected, we lack a crucial part of information - what Ned provided as an official cause of Lyanna's death and the reason for KG's presence at ToJ. I believe the latter could have been explained by claiming that ToJ was an isolated location, out of touch with the events at KL, and therefore the KG followed their last orders to guard Lyanna and didn't rush to Viserys. As for the former... would death from miscarriage be considered a sound reason without raising suspicion whether the child may have survived, in fact? It would be something people wouldn't pry into very much, it would ensure Robert's hatred for Rhaegar, and people wouldn't wonder what may have happened over there and if a Targ heir couldn't be around because they would already "know". A crucial part of this would be that Ned would not be seen with a baby anywhere in the south, which still could be arranged.

[Lady Octarina]

@Ygrain

I doubt miscarriage would be the reason Ned gave for Lyanna's death; it wold simply raise too much suspicion, and with him returning North with a bastard of his own... Robert seems intent on blaming Rhaegar for her death, so you're right, he probably chose something that could be ultimately related to Rhaegar's actions. my personal opinion is that he would have said she died from some kind of disease, an epidemics in the area Rhaegar took her to; or the most common idea that she was accidentally injured during the fight with the KG and died from that. But again, we don't have enough information to speculate further. I wonder if an explanation for this point will ever be given...

I have a question: do the Silent Sisters' vows prohibit them from communicating other than with their voices as well? Through writing, or gestures? Because if such women tended to Lyanna's bones, and that seems to be the rule in Westeros, at least in the South, so wouldn't there be three people connected to the Faith who might have been aware of how Lyanna died just by looking at her corpse?

One last thing, on the subject of Varys and the good of the realm: I too believe he puts his own personal agenda (putting Blackfyres on the Throne) before any simple considerations to the good of Westeros, but that doesn't mean he isn't doing what he thinks will be ultimately best for the realm. I see this case as similar to federalists X republicans in the early history of the US republic - each party was so convinced they had the best solution to all problems the republic could face that they were absolutely (or mostly) unwilling to compromise with the other party when in command, even if that would bring quicker benefits for the country.

[IceGal]

BondJamesBond, on 17 March 2012 - 04:20 PM, said:

So, I am an HBO subscriber turned GRRM fan.  I finished DwD a few weeks after it came out and just had a thought that forced me to start a profile here to see if others agree.

This thought rests on the premise that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son.  I think this has been pretty exhaustively proven.  

At the end of DwD, we see that Varys is a Targaryen loyalist who has been starting conflicts between Robert and his allies and later the other claimants to the iron thone while simultaneously nurturing Targaryen claimants to the throne, Viserys and Aegon.  However, he seems to also have been keeping tabs on Jon.  There is really no other explanation for why Varys wants to protect Ned at King's Landing.  He wants Ned sent to the wall so he can return back with an army to install Jon Targaryen as king.  The way Varys spoke about Rhaegar in the epilogue was almost worshipful and Varys clearly wants one of Rhaegars sons to rule, whether it be Aegon or Jon.

I was wondering about the same thing, but I arrived at this possibility from a different track

I am doing a re-read of AGOT and in the Varys-Illyrio convo that Arya overhears, we learn that Varys clearly has a plan for Dany and Viserys. In ADWD we find out about Varys' plan for Aegon.
Now why does Varys need Aegon (fake or otherwise) when he already has one Targ claimant in the form of Dany?
Assuming R+L=J, Jon's claim to the throne is stronger than Dany, BUT not stronger than Aegon, because Aegon is Rhaegar's older son.
That's why I think Varys suspects the truth about Jon, and is starting to back Aegon (over Dany) because his claim is stronger.

[Maxpey]

IceGal, on 14 June 2012 - 12:18 PM, said:

I was wondering about the same thing, but I arrived at this possibility from a different track

I am doing a re-read of AGOT and in the Varys-Illyrio convo that Arya overhears, we learn that Varys clearly has a plan for Dany and Viserys. In ADWD we find out about Varys' plan for Aegon.
Now why does Varys need Aegon (fake or otherwise) when he already has one Targ claimant in the form of Dany?
Assuming R+L=J, Jon's claim to the throne is stronger than Dany, BUT not stronger than Aegon, because Aegon is Rhaegar's older son.
That's why I think Varys suspects the truth about Jon, and is starting to back Aegon (over Dany) because his claim is stronger.

Just to be clear, are you saying that Varys always knew the truth about Jon, or are you saying that he always suspected but could never prove anything?

I like your theory that Varys eventually chose to champion Aegon over Dany because he was afraid Jon's claim would supercede Dany's.  However, I am not sure if there is sufficient circumstantial evidence to support it.

[IceGal]

Maxpey, on 14 June 2012 - 02:28 PM, said:

Just to be clear, are you saying that Varys always knew the truth about Jon, or are you saying that he always suspected but could never prove anything?

I like your theory that Varys eventually chose to champion Aegon over Dany because he was afraid Jon's claim would supercede Dany's.  However, I am not sure if there is sufficient circumstantial evidence to support it.

Agree, there isn't much evidence to support it. It's just a wild theory at this point.

I think he suspects the truth. Varys was in KL when the Mad King was on the throne. Given how effective his "network" is, he must have at least had an inkling of the nature of R and L's relationship. Maybe Varys was unable to get his spies in the ToJ, but after Ned appeared with a bastard out of the blue, he may have suspected the truth (of course assuming R+L=J is true).
If you think about it, Ned naming Jon as his bastard offers him the best protection. Varys does not dare hatch an intricate plan to harm Jon, because hey, that would only draw people's attention to Jon and make them wonder why someone is out to get a "mere bastard".

[Faint]

For what it's worth, I think Varys has no clue, even now, much less since Jon was born. Varys is not omnipresent. He doesn't know everything. He's a good Master of Whispers but he's no Bloodraven (who, not incidentally, does know exactly who Jon is).

[houseHB]

I don't think Varys know about Jon being the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna, but he might have a suspicion that Ned is not the father. When Ned said I need to write something to tell Jon in AGOT that may have raised Varys suspicions, with him thinking why would he want to write to his bastard instead of his true son Robb.

[RhaenysBalerion]

I do hope Varys knows it, otherwise we have no chance of finding out. I'm starting to doubt Howland Reed will ever get his ass out of Greytower Watch or what's the name of his place.

[Dana]

If Varys worshipped Rhaegar, why did he make Aerys so paranoid about him? I don't know what Varys really wants, none of us can tell at this point. But Varys was very instrumental in making Aerys not trust Rhaegar. That's why he went to Harrenhal, Varys put it in his head that Rhaegar was gathering lords to oust him (Aerys).

[BondJamesBond]

Dana, on 14 June 2012 - 10:05 PM, said:

If Varys worshipped Rhaegar, why did he make Aerys so paranoid about him?

Not sure.  I have doubts about my theory as well as many holes have been punched in it.  It just felt really strange looking back that Varys would be so concerned about saving Ned almost as if Ned was meant to play some role in one of his plans.  I am looking forward to finding out hopedully with the next installment.

[Martin Lasarte]

On one hand, Varys must have had "little birds" in the Tower of Joy. The man has spies in every important castle and city in Westeros, and probably also in Essos, and the place where the heir to the throne and the Lord of Winterfell's daughter are hiding together is definitely a place where Varys would like to have eyes and ears. On the other hand, Varys does nothing that remotely indicates any interest in Jon. He only mentions him once in 5 books, and in passing. So there are 3 possibilities:

• Jon is only Varys' plan C, in case plan A ("Aegon") and B (Dany) fail. So he isn't a priority.
  
• Jon is Ned's bastard son, and Varys knows it, so he doesn't care about him (BTW, I really hope he is Ned's son; I'm not a big fan of R+L=J).
  
• Rhaegar somehow made sure there weren't any spies in the Tower of Joy.

Edited by Martin Lasarte, 13 August 2012 - 01:08 PM.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

First of all: How can we be sure Varys is a Targ loyalist?

About your OP: I will dare to say that he knew but because Jon looks nothing like the Targs he doesn't care.

[theguyfromtheVale]

Martin Lasarte, on 13 August 2012 - 01:00 PM, said:

On one hand, Varys must have had "little birds" in the Tower of Joy. The man has spies in every important castle and city in Westeros, and probably also in Essos, and the place where the heir to the throne and the Lord of Winterfell's daughter are hiding together is definitely a place where Varys would like to have eyes and ears. On the other hand, Varys does nothing that remotely indicates any interest in Jon. He only mentions him once in 5 books, and in passing. So there are 3 possibilities:

• Jon is only Varys' plan C, in case plan A ("Aegon") and B (Dany) fail. So he isn't a priority.
  
• Jon is Ned's bastard son, and Varys knows it, so he doesn't care about him (BTW, I really hope he is Ned's son; I'm not a big fan of R+L=J).
  
• Rhaegar somehow made sure there weren't any spies in the Tower of Joy.

The Tower of Joy was not a major castle; it was a very remote place, with a very little household (perhaps only one or two servants), and Ned and Howland Reed were able to pull it down together, only with the help of some horses. This was not a major castle at all. Quite deliberately, it was the opposite.

Also, I seriously doubt Varys has spies everywhere. He has them in abundance in King's Landing, and probably some of the free cities. But we have no indication Varys had any idea what Littlefinger was discussing with the Tyrells, for example. And the Tyrells are really one of the major families. So... even there we see that Varys' skills are more about appearance of omniscience than actual omniscience.

Varys' real skill lies in interpreting information, and in distributing it in ways that furthers his own goals.

Edited by theguyfromtheVale, 13 August 2012 - 01:22 PM.

[alienarea]

BondJamesBond, on 17 March 2012 - 04:20 PM, said:

So, I am an HBO subscriber turned GRRM fan.  I finished DwD a few weeks after it came out and just had a thought that forced me to start a profile here to see if others agree.

This thought rests on the premise that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son.  I think this has been pretty exhaustively proven.  

At the end of DwD, we see that Varys is a Targaryen loyalist who has been starting conflicts between Robert and his allies and later the other claimants to the iron thone while simultaneously nurturing Targaryen claimants to the throne, Viserys and Aegon.  However, he seems to also have been keeping tabs on Jon.  There is really no other explanation for why Varys wants to protect Ned at King's Landing.  He wants Ned sent to the wall so he can return back with an army to install Jon Targaryen as king.  The way Varys spoke about Rhaegar in the epilogue was almost worshipful and Varys clearly wants one of Rhaegars sons to rule, whether it be Aegon or Jon.

This has importance to the plot moving forward because Varys just has tomake sure Jon learns the truth and it will change everything (assuming he didn't die from being stabbed).  Jon is becoming the leader of the north against the Boltons and he has developed a base of power to challenge for the iron throne.

When he took his vows, he knew he was giving up claim to Winterfell, but a contract is only valid if the parties know the terms and he never knew he would be giving up a claim to all the seven kingdoms, thereby invalidating his oath to the watch.

Will Jon meet Aegon and Dany at KL and decide amongst them how to rule or will they fight ech other?  Who will Varys support in a fight between Jon and Aegon?

Even though this one thread is at v31 right now, there isn't any proof for R+L=J.

[theguyfromtheVale]

The evidence has piled up considerably, though. No, it's not 100% proven. But it's supported by so much circumstantial evidence that it's probably best to assume it as true until we see otherwise.