116 replies to this topic

[Apple Martini]

ebcarlton, on 07 April 2012 - 09:11 PM, said:

Where'd the letter go, then?

He didn't end up writing it, I don't think. He asks Varys if he'd deliver a letter and Varys said it depends on what was in it and told Ned that he'd read it. Ned decides against writing it because obviously he wouldn't trust Varys with that information.

[The Imp With A Pimp Limp]

I don't know why Varys would care about Jon, even if he knew that R+L=J I don't think that would benefit Aegon or Dany. Yes, theoretically Jon could command the north and rally Winterfell's banners for Aegon or Dany. However Varys has no clue what Jon is like and he doesn't have anyone with Jon that can "guide" Jon like he did with Dany (Mormont, Ser Barristan) or Aegon (Jon Connington, Tyrion). This means that if Jon learnt about his parents then Jon could just say that Aegon is not Raeghar's real son and that he is. Jon could just go for the Iron Throne himself, he has no reason to rally for Aegon when he doesn't know or hasn't even heard about him till he is 16/17 years old. Varys is a great schemer and there's a lot of ifs and hoping and a risk too big for him to try this IMO.
I would even go as far as to suggest that if Varys did know about Jon then he would have him removed as a threat because he is another potential contender for the throne who he can't really control.

ETA: Btw I'm not a supporter of the Illyrio is YG's dad, and Varys is a blackfyre theory but that's a post for another thread

Edited by The Imp With A Pimp Limp, 07 April 2012 - 09:49 PM.

[Sunni]

ebcarlton, on 07 April 2012 - 09:11 PM, said:
Where'd the letter go, then?

He didn't end up writing it, I don't think. He asks Varys if he'd deliver a letter and Varys said it depends on what was in it and told Ned that he'd read it. Ned decides against writing it because obviously he wouldn't trust Varys with that information.


I agree. Also, Why would Ned send Jon the letter if he thought he was being sent to the Wall?

[Apple Martini]

Sunni, on 07 April 2012 - 10:07 PM, said:

Also, Why would Ned send Jon the letter if he thought he was being sent to the Wall?

That, too. Why would Ned write a letter with incredibly sensitive information that 1. Varys would read, 2., Varys probably wouldn't even send and 3. he could relay himself in person when he got to the Wall?

[The Imp With A Pimp Limp]

Apple Martini, on 07 April 2012 - 10:08 PM, said:

That, too. Why would Ned write a letter with incredibly sensitive information that 1. Varys would read, 2., Varys probably wouldn't even send and 3. he could relay himself in person when he got to the Wall?

I agree that even Ned is not stupid enough to trust Varys but he could have sent the letter to Howland Reed without actually revealing any information, he could have also sent a letter to Rob telling him that he should talk to Howland Reed, you see where I'm going...

[Apple Martini]

The Imp With A Pimp Limp, on 07 April 2012 - 10:16 PM, said:

I agree that even Ned is not stupid enough to trust Varys but he could have sent the letter to Howland Reed without actually revealing any information, he could have also sent a letter to Rob telling him that he should talk to Howland Reed, you see where I'm going...

Possibly, but even if he did that, it doesn't add up to Varys knowing about Jon's parents, which is what the thread is asking. I'm more convinced he didn't send any letters to anyone, because they'd be read and the recipients would be put under a microscope, even if no information was actually revealed.

[The Imp With A Pimp Limp]

Apple Martini, on 07 April 2012 - 10:21 PM, said:

Possibly, but even if he did that, it doesn't add up to Varys knowing about Jon's parents, which is what the thread is asking. I'm more convinced he didn't send any letters to anyone, because they'd be read and the recipients would be put under a microscope, even if no information was actually revealed.

I agree in both cases with you, I'm just saying that Ned could have written a letter even though I don't believe so, I also left the post in which I try to disprove this theory because it seems you missed the post  

The Imp With A Pimp Limp, on 07 April 2012 - 09:31 PM, said:

I don't know why Varys would care about Jon, even if he knew that R+L=J I don't think that would benefit Aegon or Dany. Yes, theoretically Jon could command the north and rally Winterfell's banners for Aegon or Dany. However Varys has no clue what Jon is like and he doesn't have anyone with Jon that can "guide" Jon like he did with Dany (Mormont, Ser Barristan) or Aegon (Jon Connington, Tyrion). This means that if Jon learnt about his parents then Jon could just say that Aegon is not Raeghar's real son and that he is. Jon could just go for the Iron Throne himself, he has no reason to rally for Aegon when he doesn't know or hasn't even heard about him till he is 16/17 years old. Varys is a great schemer and there's a lot of ifs and hoping and a risk too big for him to try this IMO.
I would even go as far as to suggest that if Varys did know about Jon then he would have him removed as a threat because he is another potential contender for the throne who he can't really control.

ETA: Btw I'm not a supporter of the Illyrio is YG's dad, and Varys is a blackfyre theory but that's a post for another thread

edited to delete double quote

Edited by The Imp With A Pimp Limp, 07 April 2012 - 10:27 PM.

[Charles Stuart]

Varys surely knew. The man knows practically everything that goes on and it would be folly to think he had no notion or idea why the KG were protecting lyanna at the tower. Plus, I'm pretty certain varys knew what this three headed dragon prophecy is about that aemon hinted at before he died.

[Apple Martini]

Charles Stuart, on 08 April 2012 - 11:11 AM, said:

Varys surely knew. The man knows practically everything that goes on and it would be folly to think he had no notion or idea why the KG were protecting lyanna at the tower. Plus, I'm pretty certain varys knew what this three headed dragon prophecy is about that aemon hinted at before he died.

Sorry, but it's going to take more than "Varys seems to know everything ergo he must know about this" reasoning to show that Varys actually knows about Jon.

[Charles Stuart]

Oh yeah...the war went on for a couple of years and the spider didn't happen to find out the circumstances of how lyanna was kidnapped,why she was in a tower surrounded by the KG, if perchance she was pregnant. The same man who knew catelyn was coming to Kingslanding before Ned knew and why she was coming too.

So yeah, reed and varys surely must know the truth of Jon's parentage. It just defies belief that varys would not be able to get any information whatsoever on the whole Rhaegar/lyanna mess for the duration of the nature war or even after it.

[Lady Hodor]

There is little inclination to show that Varys had any favour for Jon, so far as I know he never mentions him as more than "Ned's Bastard".
Whereas Aegon, he's been disrupting the entire balance of Westeros just to put him on the Iron Throne. Likely Aegon is his choice.

[Dragonfish]

Charles Stuart, on 08 April 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

Oh yeah...the war went on for a couple of years and the spider didn't happen to find out the circumstances of how lyanna was kidnapped,why she was in a tower surrounded by the KG, if perchance she was pregnant. The same man who knew catelyn was coming to Kingslanding before Ned knew and why she was coming too.

Varys knew that Catelyn was coming because someone on her ship informed on her when she arrived in King's Landing. This hardly demonstrates Varys "knows all."

I mean, hell, Varys himself admits he's not omniscient when he tells Illryio that he has no idea what game Littlefinger is playing. So I'm sorry, but your argument is based on a faulty premise.

[Charles Stuart]

That only proves the point further though. Varys has people nearly everywhere. It's not plausible to think his people would miss something as important as the reason the war started being locked up in a tower and not even bothering to find out why.

Informer: the reason the war started is locked up in a tower surrounded by KG
Spider: not important!

Doesn't fit.

[Dragonfish]

Charles Stuart, on 08 April 2012 - 12:03 PM, said:

That only proves the point further though. Varys has people nearly everywhere. It's not plausible to think his people would miss something as important as the reason the war started being locked up in a tower and not even bothering to find out why.

What proves this point? The Catelyn thing? There's nothing to suggest the man on the ship was a regular Varys informant. More likely he was just an opportunistic crewmember who thought he could get a nice payday by bringing some info to the known spymaster in King's Landing.

Quote

Informer: the reason the war started is locked up in a tower surrounded by KG
Spider: not important!

Doesn't fit.

Actually, Jaime does recall Aerys demanding to see Rhaegar, and no one at the time knew where he was, including Varys.

Also, your premise is based on the idea that there was anyone at the Tower to inform on Rhaegar, when as far as we can tell, there surely must have been very few people, and those people would surely have been loyal to Rhaegar. If there were more people there, or if those people weren't loyal to Rhaegar, then you'd expect the "secret" of Jon's parentage to have quickly become known to all.

[Apple Martini]

Dragonfish, on 08 April 2012 - 12:08 PM, said:

<snip>

Agree with everything you said. I see no evidence that Varys knew where Rhaegar was or that he had someone at the Tower of Joy feeding stuff back to him (who was supposed to sell Rhaegar out — Dayne, Whent, Hightower, or Lyanna?).

Perhaps the biggest indication that Varys doesn't know anything about Jon is that nothing has come of it if he does. None of his plans even include Jon and there's no indication that he has any real interest in the Wall, nor has he attempted to contact Jon, assassinate him or do anything at all that would indicate he knows who Jon really is.

Besides, isn't it kind of fitting that guileless, honest-to-a-fault Ned to have pulled one over on know-it-all Varys? Varys seems like he knows "everything," but Ned kept the biggest secret of all from him.

[Lady Octarina]

Dragonfish, on 08 April 2012 - 12:08 PM, said:

Also, your premise is based on the idea that there was anyone at the Tower to inform on Rhaegar, when as far as we can tell, there surely must have been very few people, and those people would surely have been loyal to Rhaegar. If there were more people there, or if those people weren't loyal to Rhaegar, then you'd expect the "secret" of Jon's parentage to have quickly become known to all.

Apple Martini, on 08 April 2012 - 04:02 PM, said:

Agree with everything you said. I see no evidence that Varys knew where Rhaegar was or that he had someone at the Tower of Joy feeding stuff back to him (who was supposed to sell Rhaegar out — Dayne, Whent, Hightower, or Lyanna?).

Perhaps the biggest indication that Varys doesn't know anything about Jon is that nothing has come of it if he does. None of his plans even include Jon and there's no indication that he has any real interest in the Wall, nor has he attempted to contact Jon, assassinate him or do anything at all that would indicate he knows who Jon really is.

Besides, isn't it kind of fitting that guileless, honest-to-a-fault Ned to have pulled one over on know-it-all Varys? Varys seems like he knows "everything," but Ned kept the biggest secret of all from him.

I agree with all this. Also, wasn't Varys doing his best to put Aerys against Rhaegar in those final years, according to Barristan (or was it Jaime?)? Rhaegar was many things, but according to all accounts he wasn't stupid; I'm sure that whatever his plans for Lyanna and the child were, he would have done his best to keep them protected against Varys, most of all.

[Sandsnake17]

Even if Jon does have the best claim to the throne, how is he going to get out of being executed for deserting the Wall?

And even though Varys can be a sneaky little eunuch, I really do believe that he does whatever he thinks is best for the realm. The only thing he really considers valuable is perfume and secrets. And he uses those secrets where he sees fit to sort out/gain an advantage in a situation to better the realm. Even if his ultimate goal is wrong, I think his motives are honest.

[Apple Martini]

Sandsnake17, on 09 April 2012 - 01:35 AM, said:

Even if Jon does have the best claim to the throne, how is he going to get out of being executed for deserting the Wall?

He could be declared actually dead and get out of it that way. The Watch could dissolve in the wake of his "assassination" and its laws no longer be binding. The Watch could finally defeat the Others and disband because of that. There are multiple ways for the Watch angle to not be completely binding. If Martin intends for Jon to rule something, he'll have figured out a way to get him off the Wall. I'm not fussed about that at all.

Quote

And even though Varys can be a sneaky little eunuch, I really do believe that he does whatever he thinks is best for the realm. The only thing he really considers valuable is perfume and secrets. And he uses those secrets where he sees fit to sort out/gain an advantage in a situation to better the realm. Even if his ultimate goal is wrong, I think his motives are honest.

Varys' "best for the realm" line became Grade A bullshit for me when he killed Kevan. Kevan was a competent, relatively decent guy doing his best, and Varys admitted that he had to die in order to further throw the realm into chaos and turn the Tyrells and Lannisters against each other. "Good of the realm," my ass. He's just as self-interested as anyone else.

[Sandsnake17]

I dunno man. There is just something about him that doesn't make me really believe that. I personally think the two people who know more about anything that goes on in all of the seven kingdoms and beyond are Varys and Littlefinger. Littlefinger is a complete psychopath who just messes everything up for the hell of it. But I think Varys has a better sense of what he is doing.

[Apple Martini]

Sandsnake17, on 09 April 2012 - 02:02 AM, said:

I dunno man. There is just something about him that doesn't make me really believe that. I personally think the two people who know more about anything that goes on in all of the seven kingdoms and beyond are Varys and Littlefinger. Littlefinger is a complete psychopath who just messes everything up for the hell of it. But I think Varys has a better sense of what he is doing.

I agree that Varys has a good sense of what he's doing. That doesn't mean that he isn't rooting for one faction (probably the Blackfyres) above another at the expense of the realm's peace, and it doesn't mean he knows anything about Jon.