Aegon VI - Does he know?

[As high as honor]

Okay, so I have only read ADWD once. So My info might be a little off. Can someone please explain why Aegon would be a fake?

When I read ADWD this thought did not occur to me. Then again I have yet to re-read ADWD, and as we all know when you re-read the books there is a lot more info to process. (Just started re-reading ACOK).

Thanks.

[Lady Hodor]

Nah, since they've had him since he was a baby, they've likely hammered the lie into his head all his life.

The best way for a lie to be believed, if is the person who tells it believes it themselves.

[The guy from the Vale]

The theory that Aegon is gake rests on a few questions:

• Why doesn't Illyrio inform Viserys and Dany that their nephew is still alive? Unless Viserys could spot some signs that would point to YG not being Aegon, such as the wrong eye colour (even Connington, who isn't the sharpest tool in the box, picks up on that), unique birthmarks or something like that.
  
• Why does the Golden Company, a mercenary organisation known for honouring their contracts, break their commitment to Myr? Illyrio tells Tyrion they do so because 'some contracts are writ in blood'. But the GC fought Targaryens for a century, so they would hardly be bound to them by blood. However, they were founded by Bittersteel with the primary objective of putting a Blackfyre descendant on the throne. So their contract writ in blood is more likely to be to a Blackfyre than to a Targaryen.
  
• Why the baby-switch? Varys could hardly know that Gregor Clegane would bash Aegon's head in when sacking KL. Even Tywin didn't expect that. But if the head had stayed recognizable, it's quite likely someone would have discovered that the dead child looks nothing like Aegon. Unless there was no baby-switch at all, and Varys gave Connington another child, several years later.
  
• What's in it for Varys and Illyrio? Both don't seem to be the kind of people who do something just because they really like the people they are dealing with. And since Illyrio and Varys have little direct contact to YG, why would they support him? Unless Young Griff is family: Illyrio's son with Serra (Blackfyre?) (who had the typical Valyrian features), who might well be Varys' sister...
  

[Dragonfish]

Honestly, some people have been expecting to see a fake Aegon since ACOK (when we first heard about the "mummer's dragon"), so when an Aegon appeared in ADWD, it simply confirmed our expectations.

As for the evidence, well, I'd argue that most of it rests on the aforementioned "mummer's dragon" prophecy and the "slayer of lies" line it is associated with. Without that bit of foreshadowing, I doubt so many people here would think Aegon was fake. There's also a line from Moqorro about a "false dragon", and, for the Blackfyre theorists, there's a nifty bit of evidence from AFFC, where Septon Meribald tells the story of a black dragon sign being thrown into the river and washing ashore "rusted red" (perhaps symbolizing that a Blackfyre will return to Westeros in the guise of a Targaryen).

[Teal'c]

No way. Trusting the boy to keep a secret like that is an absurdly massive risk on Varys's part; it's much easier all round if he himself believes the story.

Especially when he was very young. Little kids say all kinds of things they shouldn't say, delighting in how public the venue is.

[lostinwesteros]

No, he doesn't know that he's not a Targ.

[Lord Varys]

The Targaryen eye colors vary. Dany and Viserys have different shades of purple/violet, and Rhaegar had different eyes than Viserys. Aegon's paler eyes could be due to the fact that his mother was no Targaryen. Connington should/would be really concerned if Aegon shared no characteristics with either Rhaegar or Elia. And since he never thinks about this, I'm convinced he has good reason to believe that Aegon is genuine.

After all, one should expect that Lord Jon Connington would have demanded convincing proof about Aegon's identity and about Varys's and Illyrio's motivation to save him when they first approached him. Connington would never have gone along with this whole thing if anything in this whole plan smelled like 'Blackfyre Restoration'.

And since I believe that Blackheart Toyne and Jon Connington were lovers, I'm convinced that Toyne did not know stuff Connington was not told...

[Drinking Cersei's Tears]

I don't think anyone knows he's fake except Varys/Cheesemonger.

[Buried Treasure]

I don't believe Aegon is a Blackfyre (I think he is a fake-fake), but if he is a Blackfyre I don't believe he knows it. And even if he did know he was a Blackfyre I especially don't believe that the Golden Company is in on the secret.

There are dozens of officers in the GC. Some are probably still as loyal to ideals that Bittersteel instilled in the company as their forebears were. Others are simply mercenaries that happen to belong sellsword company that is more honourable than the others - without being particularly honourable men themselves. Is the entire officer corps meant to be in on the 'our Targaryen is actually a Blackfyre' secret? Isn't the risk that the secret will at some point be betrayed rather high?

With the story as we were actually presented it in ADwD there was fairly little risk of betrayal of any massive secrets. A tiny handful of the very most senior officers knew of the existence of Aegon Targaryen, the other 10,000 men in the coy were kept in ignorance of the reason for being near Volantis until shortly before Griff and Aegon arrived - at which point there was little further need for secrecy.

And it turns out the GC aren't too fussed about who employs them - Harry Strickland told the officers about Aegon in part so they wouldn't get too upset about turning down an offer from the Yunkai to fight in Slaver's Bay. Then they discuss aiding Daenerys. Then they agree to follow Aegon to Westeros - for such loyal reasons as 'I would sooner die in Westeros than on the demon road' / 'I'd sooner live, win land and some great castle'/'so long as I can kill some Fossoways, I'm for it.'

[Lady Octarina]

The Targaryen eye colors vary. Dany and Viserys have different shades of purple/violet, and Rhaegar had different eyes than Viserys. Aegon's paler eyes could be due to the fact that his mother was no Targaryen. Connington should/would be really concerned if Aegon shared no characteristics with either Rhaegar or Elia. And since he never thinks about this, I'm convinced he has good reason to believe that Aegon is genuine.

But still, since his mother was a Dornish (and the Martells do seem to have the typical dark hair and eyes), wouldn't it be more likely for Aegon's eyes to be a darker shade of blue, instead of pale?

[Melpomene]

Definitely likely Aegon wouldn't know.

For one thing, he seems quite cocky and exuberant about his position and wannabe potential.

And as suggested, it would just be easier to keep things under tabs. To tell a child that they are a Blackfyre, then tell them to pretend to be a Targ, and then tell them to hide that Targ identity..... would be complicated to do 24/7 throughout their growing life.

Would be a bummer though. Talk about a major identity crisis on many levels, and in the end likely feel completely used like a chesspiece.

[CrypticWeirwood]

According to the Blackfyre theory, what might be behind Tyrion's affinity for Griff--the emotional pull mentioned several times? Despite Griff's pretty obvious jerkiness toward Tyrion (in my opinion).

It’s avuncular: blood calls to blood. Tyrion is really Aerys’s son by Joanna; hence the dragon dreams and so much more. Even as a Blackfyre, and perhaps even moreso because of it, Aegon has plenty of the blood of the dragon in him. If Aegon is Rhaegar’s son, then Tyrion is his uncle. If Aegon came through the Blackfyres, then they’re cousins.

Blood calls to blood.

[CrypticWeirwood]

[double post]

[CrypticWeirwood]

No, he doesn't know that he's not a Targ.

It’s much more complicated than that. He doesn’t know he’s a Blackfyre. But if the Blackfyre heresy is true, then Daemon was Aegon’s son but Daeron was only Aegon’s siblings’ son with no direct right to the crown. That makes the Blackfyres the “the real Targaryens” now.

So it might be that Aegon is a real Targaryen after all, even if he isn’t Rhaegar’s son! It’s like a double negative making a positive. If there are two levels of fakery here, then he could well be real.

Just be glad George Martin isn’t Gene Wolfe.

[TheSpottedCat]

Is it really logical? Noone knew Gregor would bash in Aegon's face. Even Tywin was surprised by that display of cruelty. And if Gregor hadn't bashed that face in, everyone would know Aegon as switched (if that switch indeed occurred) - except for Gregor himself, who had never seen baby Aegon...

Well, babies all look alike. If he had the right colouring, then he would be convincing. Plus who would have spent enough time around the baby Aegon, besides the immediate family, to be able to tell him apart from other babies? No, the baby's appearance is not a problem in the switch theory. A Greater problem for the theory IMO is how did Varys get Elia to agree to it. I mean, would a mother in a state of panic and fear entrust her baby in the hands of an almost stranger (remember, she was Dornish and Varys would be nothing more than an acquaintance to her). Wouldn't she have preferred to keep him near her? That would have been my instict as a mother. And say she realized the kids would be killed when KL was sacked and agreed to Varys's plan. Would she agree to send only one child away to safety and let the other stay there to die? Was the whole thing something like Sophie's Choice? if you can't save both kids, at least save one of them? And then, having suffered all these hard choices, and knowing she might die, could she be trusted to play her role with the replacement baby, treating it as if it was her own, especially when the Mountain came to kill it and rape her? Could the switch have taken place without her knowing? I think it highly unlikely. A mother would have recognized her own baby.

[flame7926]

I dont think he's fake so there is nothing for him to know.

[Lady Octarina]

Well, babies all look alike. If he had the right colouring, then he would be convincing. Plus who would have spent enough time around the baby Aegon, besides the immediate family, to be able to tell him apart from other babies? No, the baby's appearance is not a problem in the switch theory. A Greater problem for the theory IMO is how did Varys get Elia to agree to it. I mean, would a mother in a state of panic and fear entrust her baby in the hands of an almost stranger (remember, she was Dornish and Varys would be nothing more than an acquaintance to her). Wouldn't she have preferred to keep him near her? That would have been my instict as a mother. And say she realized the kids would be killed when KL was sacked and agreed to Varys's plan. Would she agree to send only one child away to safety and let the other stay there to die? Was the whole thing something like Sophie's Choice? if you can't save both kids, at least save one of them? And then, having suffered all these hard choices, and knowing she might die, could she be trusted to play her role with the replacement baby, treating it as if it was her own, especially when the Mountain came to kill it and rape her? Could the switch have taken place without her knowing? I think it highly unlikely. A mother would have recognized her own baby.

That's an excellent point, which brings another question: will Doran realize that Elia would never have agreed with this switch, therefore begin to doubt Young Griff is really his nephew? Doran is no fool, he might make a parallel with how his own wife felt when he took Quentyn from her - and that wasn't even a situation in which any of her children's life was threatened! On the other hand, GRRM makes sure we learn that Doran was never that close to Elia, unlike Oberyn, which once again makes me wonder if he can make any connection. I believe he can, even if it takes him too long for that, even if he may end up before he can act on it, sharing the knowledge with only Hotah, perhaps. Your post also makes me wonder if maybe, just maybe, Oberyn's death wasn't simply a way to make fans cry and curse Martin, but also something necessary to preserve Aegon's farce a little longer (just like Maester Aemon's blindness might have been a plot device for Jon's identity as a Targ to remain a secret for a few more books). Oberyn was too close to Elia, he would know. And thanks to your post now I'm no longer just 85% convinced that Aegon is a fake - that's an absolute certainty now!

[Rheagar Prime]

I don't know if he is fake or not, i doubt he is until proven otherwise. If he is though i doubt he would know an actor who doesn't know he's an actor always gives the best performances

[Toccs]

I don't think Aegon knows that he is a Blackfyre at all and niether does Connington. It would be far too much risk to trust that the child would be able to keep such an important secret for so long and Connington would never have gone along with it if he suspected that Blackfyres were involved.

I do think that the leadership of the Golden Company (only the very top few) must know about it and probably have since Varys and Illyrio hatched the plan. I would even go as far as to say that the Golden Company were the ones who introduced Illyrio to Serra in the first place.

[The Drunkard]

I don't think he knows, and I don't think he ever will know.