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Was Catelyn right?


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#1 Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:06 AM

A roar of outrage drowned out his voice. “Craven!” the Greatjon thundered. “Begging for a truce will make us seem weak,” declared Lady Mormont. “Ransoms be damned, we must not give up the Kingslayer,” shouted Rickard Karstark.
Why not a peace?” Catelyn asked.
The lords looked at her, but it was Robb’s eyes she felt, his and his alone. “My lady, they murdered my lord father, your husband,” he said grimly. He unsheathed his longsword and laid it on the table before him, the bright steel on the rough wood. “This is the only peace I have for Lannisters.”
The Greatjon bellowed his approval, and other men added their voices, shouting and drawing swords and pounding their fists on the table. Catelyn waited until they had quieted. “My lords,” she said then, “Lord Eddard was your liege, but I shared his bed and bore his children. Do you think I love him any less than you?” Her voice almost broke with her grief, but Catelyn took a long breath and steadied herself. “Robb, if that sword could bring him back, I should never let you sheathe it until Ned stood at my side once more . . . but he is gone, and hundred Whispering Woods will not change that. Ned is gone, and Daryn Hornwood, and Lord Karstark’s valiant sons, and many other good men besides, and none of them will return to us. Must we have more deaths still?”

“You are a woman, my lady,” the Greatjon rumbled in his deep voice. “Women do not understand these things.”
“You are the gentle sex,” said Lord Karstark, with the lines of grief fresh on his face. “A man has a need for vengeance.”

“Give me Cersei Lannister, Lord Karstark, and you would see how gentle a woman can be,” Catelyn replied. “Perhaps I do not understand tactics and strategy . . . but I understand futility. We went to war when Lannister armies were ravaging the riverlands, and Ned was a prisoner, falsely accused of treason. We fought to defend ourselves, and to win my lord’s freedom.
“Well, the one is done, and the other forever beyond our reach. I will mourn for Ned until the end of my days, but I must think of the living. I want my daughters back, and the queen holds them still. If I must trade our four Lannisters for their two Starks, I will call that a bargain and thank the gods. I want you safe, Robb, ruling at Winterfell from your father’s seat. I want you to live your life, to kiss a girl and wed a woman and father a son. I want to write an end to this. I want to go home, my lords, and weep for my husband.”
The hall was very quiet when Catelyn finished speaking.
“Peace,” said her uncle Brynden. “Peace is sweet, my lady . . . but on what terms? It is no good hammering your sword into a plowshare if you must forge it again on the morrow.”
“What did Torrhen and my Eddard die for, if I am to return to Karhold with nothing but their bones?” asked Rickard Karstark.
“Aye,” said Lord Bracken. “Gregor Clegane laid waste to my fields, slaughtered my smallfolk, and left Stone Hedge a smoking ruin. Am I now to bend the knee to the ones who sent him? What have we fought for, if we are to put all back as it was before?”
Lord Blackwood agreed, to Catelyn’s surprise and dismay. “And if we do make peace with King Joffrey, are we not then traitors to King Renly? What if the stag should prevail against the lion, where would that leave us?”
“Whatever you may decide for yourselves, I shall never call a Lannister my king,” declared Marq Piper.
“Nor I!” yelled the little Darry boy. “I never will!”
Again the shouting began. Catelyn sat despairing. She had come so close, she thought. They had almost listened, almost . . . but the moment was gone. There would be no peace, no chance to heal, no safety. She looked at her son, watched him as he listened to the lords debate, frowning, troubled, yet wedded to his war. He had pledged himself to marry a daughter of Walder Frey, but she saw his true bride plain before her now: the sword he had laid on the table.
Catelyn was thinking of her girls, wondering if she would ever see them again, when the Greatjon lurched to his feet.


I don't think GRRM thinks vengeance as wise so  the lines that are underlined as well as bold in in my view  GRRM is perharps of the view that the likes of Greatjon in the council were overtaken by vengeance and were thinking first of that and later of what is the right thing to do. And they were also sexist. But still just because one side is illogical it does not mean that the other side is strategically correct although philosophically peace over vengeance might be the way to go.

When I ask if she was right, I am interested in both the strategy (what if they decided to do everything for peace, whether it was feasible, the long term effects of it, whether for example Tywin would have respected it ) and also other issues such as if peace is better than vengeance. Of course your priorities might vary.

Edited by Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren, 12 April 2012 - 10:18 AM.


#2 David Selig

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:20 AM

Given how things ended (Red Wedding and a defeat for the North), is it not obvious that she was right?

Besides, the fact that that the first who opposed her were Greatjon and Rickard Karstark, two of the biggest fools in the series and their reasoning was that she was a woman and thus had no clue, is a pretty clear sign who Martin intended to show as right in this case.

#3 Awesome Oberyn Martell

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:25 AM

I don't like Catelyn, but if Robb had listened to her a bit more often then he'd be alive and either King in the North or Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North.

ETA: Yes, she was right

Edited by Awesome Oberyn Martell, 12 April 2012 - 10:25 AM.


#4 Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:26 AM

View PostDavid Selig, on 12 April 2012 - 10:20 AM, said:

Given how things ended (Red Wedding and a defeat for the North), is it not obvious that she was right?

Besides, the fact that that the first who opposed her were Greatjon and Rickard Karstark, two of the biggest fools in the series and their reasoning was that she was a woman and thus had no clue, is a pretty clear sign who Martin intended to show as right in this case.

Yeah while I mostly agree and think that ultimately Catelyn was right, but still I think it is a little more complicated than that as the destruction of the Starks was determined on Renly's defeat, Tyrells going to the Lannisters, Ironborn invading, Theon taking Winterfell, Ramsay destroying Winterfell. The Westerling marriage. And of course Roose Bolton and Walder Frey duplicitous nature. Hell even the failure of the plan to keep Tywin west played a role. They took a risk, they lost, but it wasn't a certain direction at that point of time.

Peace can also have its risks with someone as  untrustworthy and ambitious as Tywin and Lannisters. And bannermen of both house Tully and Stark would not have liked the idea. I do still think that Catelyn was right.

Note that I am not only thinking of it from the POV of hindsight but also from the POV of being in that situation having that kind of knowledge. But yeah my view is that Catelyn was right. Although to be honest if we remove hindsight entirely and only focus on the options there, I am not entirely sure, strategically speaking.

I wonder if we will see any different opinions on this as it seems so far that we are all unanimously in favor of Catelyn view.

BTW Certainly interesting how Catelyn who was vouching for peace eventually became lady stoneheart, consumed by vengeance.  Another of one of the many things one notices in these books and likes with  how GRRM has planned his story.

Edited by Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren, 12 April 2012 - 10:41 AM.


#5 Corm

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:28 AM

I agree with the above. As regards Tywin, he almost certainly would have agreed to peace. there's that quote from him something about you must be harsh to your enemies but when they kneel you must help them up. I've almost certainly butchered, apologies.

Though if he simply wanted to be King in the North I don't understand why he didn't just defend from above the Neck.

Edit: there was the Tullys to think about I suppose

Edited by Corm, 12 April 2012 - 10:30 AM.


#6 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:29 AM

Strategically, she was wrong. Several reasons:

1. With Joffrey and Cersei calling the shots, a peace wouldn't have lasted.

2. A King Lannister in general couldn't let such a power block challenging him off easy or he would be very weak and likely lose the throne.

3. Peace without a clear victory would weaken the Starks position in the North and the Riverlands.

The Starks needed a decivise victory crippling or dividing the South for at least one generation, preferably some autonomous kingdoms more.

#7 David Selig

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:33 AM

View PostQhorin Halfhand and Yoren, on 12 April 2012 - 10:26 AM, said:

Yeah while I mostly agree and think that ultimately Catelyn was right, but still I think it is a little more complicated than that as the destruction of the Starks was determined on Renly's defeat, Tyrells going to the Lannisters, Ironborn invading, Theon taking Winterfell, Ramsay destroying Winterfell. The Westerling marriage. And of course Roose Bolton and Walder Frey duplicitous nature. Hell even the failure of the plan to keep Tywin west played a role. They took a risk, they lost, but it wasn't a certain direction at that point of time.

Peace can also, have its risk with someone untrustworthy and ambitious as Tywin and Lannisters. And bannermen of both house Tully and Stark would not have fully liked the idea. I do still think that Catelyn was right.

Note that I am not only thinking of it from the POV of hindsight but also from the POV of being in that situation having that kind of knowledge. But yeah my view is that Catelyn was right. I wonder if we will see any different opinions on this as it seems so far that we are all unanimously in favor of Catelyn view.

BTW Certainly interesting how Catelyn who was vouching for peace eventually became lady stoneheart, consumed by vengeance.  Another of one of the many things one notices in this books and likes how GRRM has planned his story.
  Yeah, it's much more complicated, sure, and I don't even think that suing for peace was the only right decision at this point, but IMO Robb and his side in general should've made more of an effort at that than Robb sending an offer which he knew was doomed from the start. They needed more cool heads and less obsession with vengeance and independence at all costs.

#8 Melq

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:39 AM

She could be right about that, but when she freed Jaime, she sentenced to death Robb.

#9 Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:39 AM

View PostDavid Selig, on 12 April 2012 - 10:33 AM, said:

  Yeah, it's much more complicated, sure, and I don't even think that suing for peace was the only right decision at this point, but IMO Robb and his side in general should've made more of an effort at that than Robb sending an offer which he knew was doomed from the start. They needed more cool heads and less obsession with vengeance and independence at all costs.

Yeah, especially the whole King in the North declaration and also being against an alliance with Renly at that point, did not help their side at all.

Edited by Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren, 12 April 2012 - 10:40 AM.


#10 Ser Hippie

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:40 AM

View PostBright Blue Eyes, on 12 April 2012 - 10:29 AM, said:

1. With Joffrey and Cersei calling the shots, a peace wouldn't have lasted.

Joffrey and Cersei wouldn't have been calling the shots, Tywin (who we know would accept a peace) would have. Also, he could have bent the knee or otherwise attached himself to either Renly or Stannis but doesn't appear to have been behind that idea either (unless the "kingsmoot" that Catelyn proposes was with his knowledge); at the time of Robb's crowning both are still in play.

Quote

2. A King Lannister in general couldn't let such a power block challenging him off easy or he would be very weak and likely lose the throne.

Tywin explicitly says that, when possible, knowing when to offer your opponent your hand in peace is entirely possible; it shows they didn't victory was a reasonable prospect while also avoiding retribution. The reasonable Lannisters (Tyrion, Tywin) were pretty clear on that.

Quote

3. Peace without a clear victory would weaken the Starks position in the North and the Riverlands.

And fighting a war against long odds ended up breaking the Stark hold on the North and has put House Tully on the brink of disaster. In addition, the Starks had no real established "position in the Riverlands"; the Tully-Star alliance only dates back to the Rebellion, and the chances of a "clear victory" in the long run lessen as time goes on.

Robb/the Starks need a quick victory because the longer the various southern factions have to organize or knock themselves out of the picture, the longer the odds he will face are. Ideally, he should have sued for peace on reasonable terms at some point during ACOK (probably after Oxcross when Tywin would have been most vulnerable, and before the Tyrell-Lanniser alliance hardened Lannister nerves). His refusal to is very understandable, but his window closes quickly; Robb basically becomes the gambler who rides a lucky streak too long and doesn't cash out in time.

Edited by Ser Hippie, 12 April 2012 - 10:42 AM.


#11 Ser NotAppearingInThisBook

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:40 AM

View PostDavid Selig, on 12 April 2012 - 10:20 AM, said:

Given how things ended (Red Wedding and a defeat for the North), is it not obvious that she was right?

Besides, the fact that that the first who opposed her were Greatjon and Rickard Karstark, two of the biggest fools in the series and their reasoning was that she was a woman and thus had no clue, is a pretty clear sign who Martin intended to show as right in this case.

I would agree with you there in terms of Umber and Karstark, but Bracken, Blackwood, and Brynden brought forth legitimate reasons for keeping the war going.
1) Brynden pretty much says (probabaly correctly) that peace would not last with Joffrey, Cersei, and Tywin calling the shots.
2) Bracken brings up the point that the Riverlands have pretty much been laid to waste and they deserve justice in some form.  That will not come from giving up the fight
3) Blackwood brings up the Baratheon question.  Renly and Stannis are still contenders for the throne at this point.  Making peace with the Lannisters is supporting Joffrey's claim to the whole of the seven kingdoms, meaning they could be called upon to fight for him.

So I definitely agree with you that the Northern reasons for continuing the war are foolish, the Riverlords have very good reasons to continue it.

#12 Euphail

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:41 AM

She was right that a peace would be necessary, but she is not right for the reasons she states. She had no way of knowing the reasons of eventual defeat (factors leading to the red wedding.)

Also, I wonder what she would have done when 4 Lannisters were traded for 1 Stark.

Further, what she would have said when the Riverlands were swept over and the peace broken. It's foolish to think that the Lannisters would not take the Riverlands back when 'peace' was established, they're impossible for Robb to defend. As soon as he was North of the neck, the riverlands would be lost. Then it would be a long slow war against the North. Eventually he would lose.

Catelyn would be right in the short run, and would doom both the Tully's and Starks in the long run.

#13 Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:44 AM

I am also interested in your views in regards to the philosophy of it. Peace or vengeance. It might seem simple but if you are the one who is a victim of someone else and you do have a shot at beating him and getting retribution, the choice between peace with them or vengeance might not be as simple as it might seem in this discussion. So I think even this is somewhat complicated. But then again there is always a third party the innocents caught between the lords game of thrones and vengeance.

Another issue is that lets assume that Robb's plan did work, and Stannis did take Kings Landing. When Stannis did that, Cersei would have Sansa killed and Sansa could be dead.  As Catelyn views and objectives are influenced by her wanting to save her family, what achieves that is also something that might need to be considered. But on the other hand it is possible she is not thinking strategically long term but on the other hand even if Robb won, him not trading away Jaime for Sansa might have cost them the life of their daughter even if Robb had won. But trading Jaime could be strategically disadvantageous mostly because it would incredibly piss off the Karstarks for once, but perharps others as well. But a life of a family member isn't more precious than a disadvantage? Although there is a counterargument to that too, as in war you win or you die, and loss of advantages makes the later more likely.

Edited by Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren, 12 April 2012 - 11:06 AM.


#14 A Free Shadow

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:49 AM

She was reasonable, but no one will ever know if she was right. RW happened as a result of many later events, a few of them caused by Catelyn.

I only know that if I was Robb and I was made to go home without avenging my father and made to swear fealthy to te iron throne, I would have been a broken man my whole life. It would have been the death of me. Just very slow and very painful.

#15 Corm

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:50 AM

A peace was the best option but not necessarily with the Lannisters. If he had made an agreement with Stannis, things probably would have worked out better for both parties. They could have agreed on the plan to lure out Tywin's forces, have Stannis take King's Landing and see what Renly did from there. The most important thing would have been Renly's agreement but I suppose that he wa never going to back down, nor was Stannis

#16 Ser NotAppearingInThisBook

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:58 AM

Remember, they tried to sue for peace at some point from all the factions contending for the throne.  They tried to ally themselves with the Iron Islands and they threw it back in their faces.  Renly didn't think he needed help, the Lannisters wouldn't exchange Jaime for half of the kingdom.
Someone (Davos, I think) brought up to Stannis the possibility of an alliance with the North, but Stannis wouldn't have it on principles.  It's not like they didn't try to end the war, it's just that they could never come to an agreement on how to end it.

#17 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 11:03 AM

View PostSer Hippie, on 12 April 2012 - 10:40 AM, said:

Joffrey and Cersei wouldn't have been calling the shots, Tywin (who we know would accept a peace) would have. Also, he could have bent the knee or otherwise attached himself to either Renly or Stannis but doesn't appear to have been behind that idea either (unless the "kingsmoot" that Catelyn proposes was with his knowledge); at the time of Robb's crowning both are still in play.
Tywin is a Hand of the King in his fifties, Joffrey the King in his teens.  The power balance between those two would have shifted before the next spring. And Stannis/Renley were not part of the question

Quote



Tywin explicitly says that, when possible, knowing when to offer your opponent your hand in peace is entirely possible; it shows they didn't victory was a reasonable prospect while also avoiding retribution. The reasonable Lannisters (Tyrion, Tywin) were pretty clear on that.
"offer your defeated opponent your hand". Big difference. The Starks needed to lose first. Otherwise the King would be the loser.

Quote




And fighting a war against long odds ended up breaking the Stark hold on the North and has put House Tully on the brink of disaster. In addition, the Starks had no real established "position in the Riverlands"; the Tully-Star alliance only dates back to the Rebellion, and the chances of a "clear victory" in the long run lessen as time goes on.

Robb/the Starks need a quick victory because the longer the various southern factions have to organize or knock themselves out of the picture, the longer the odds he will face are. Ideally, he should have sued for peace on reasonable terms at some point during ACOK (probably after Oxcross when Tywin would have been most vulnerable, and before the Tyrell-Lanniser alliance hardened Lannister nerves). His refusal to is very understandable, but his window closes quickly; Robb basically becomes the gambler who rides a lucky streak too long and doesn't cash out in time.
Yes, not throwing in with a Baratheon was his problem. But as Tyrion said, Joffrey broke the peace between Lannister and Stark for good and all. One had to lose, because the other needed to win to survive.

#18 Corm

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 11:09 AM

View PostWolfwood Brother, on 12 April 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:

Remember, they tried to sue for peace at some point from all the factions contending for the throne.  They tried to ally themselves with the Iron Islands and they threw it back in their faces.  Renly didn't think he needed help, the Lannisters wouldn't exchange Jaime for half of the kingdom.
Someone (Davos, I think) brought up to Stannis the possibility of an alliance with the North, but Stannis wouldn't have it on principles.  It's not like they didn't try to end the war, it's just that they could never come to an agreement on how to end it.

What Renly wanted was for Robb to kneel and pledge alleigance to him, same with Stannis. Now that I think about it she was wrong, once Robb named himself King, he destroyed any hope of an alliance

#19 Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 11:10 AM

View PostCorm, on 12 April 2012 - 11:09 AM, said:

What Renly wanted was for Robb to kneel and pledge alleigance to him, same with Stannis. Now that I think about it she was wrong, once Robb named himself King, he destroyed any hope of an alliance

Yeah, perhaps that was the biggest mistake.

#20 Ser NotAppearingInThisBook

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 11:18 AM

View PostCorm, on 12 April 2012 - 11:09 AM, said:

What Renly wanted was for Robb to kneel and pledge allegiance to him, same with Stannis. Now that I think about it she was wrong, once Robb named himself King, he destroyed any hope of an alliance

To me, this is what turned out to be the Northern downfall.  Neither Joffrey, Renly, or Stannis wanted to rule the 5 kingdoms, and while making an alliance with the North, while it will probably prove useful militarily, its a big concession politically.