154 replies to this topic

[Ser Hippie]

Robb doesn't have 40,000 troops in reserve, because if he did they could have easily taken Moat Cailin from the North and we'd have known about them. The Lannister army/armies is/are definitely larger than the Northern one (although how it exactly compares to the Riverlands/Northern combined army, I'm not sure).

In any case, the point is that by declaring independence, Robb has expressed hostility to each of the potential victors in the south (Renly, Joffrey, Stannis) and deprived himself of two potential allies (Renly and Stannis). He continued this policy even after Renly's death, Stannis' defeat/the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, and recognizes that mistake as they're marching to Twins in ASOS (at which point it's too late).

Once he and his bannermen reject peace and refuse to bend the knee (to anyone),

(1) Robb needs allies. The Grejoys reject alliance and attack him, Renly will only accept an alliance if Robb bends the knee, which he won't do (Stannis is the same, only harsher). Lysa refuses to mobilize the Vale to support him.

and/or

(2) Robb needs the other factions to wear themselves out enough that he has time to maneuver (diplomatically or militarily) after they start taking each other off the board. Renly dies quickly, which hurts this objective and then the double whammy of the Tyrell-Lannister alliance and Stannis getting routed.

or

(3) Hope Renly wins and is generous (Stannis isn't the type to forgive an independent North/Riverlands). Once Renly is dead, that option is gone.

Once Renly is dead, Robb's options are increasingly limited. He doesn't throw in with Stannis or apparently consider other strategies though, and keeps fighting. Once the Tyrell-Lannister alliance crushes Stannis at the Blackwater, Robb's not going to win that war unless he abandons the Riverlands (and can build enough naval strength to hold back the Tyrells' fleet). He need not have thrown the towel in right away, but he should have known when to cut his losses and he didn't until it was too late.

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Also, for those of you arguing that Robb can't well bend the knee or make peace because the Riverlands need to be avenged; he's quite willing to leave the riverlords at the mercy of the Tyrell-Lannister army anyway. What did he/anyone expect would happen once he's marched north to retake Winterfell/the North while leaving the Tyrells and Lannisters behind?

Edited by Ser Hippie, 12 April 2012 - 04:08 PM.

[Hear Us Roar]

There are many things that Cat or anyone else could never predict.

-Lysa being crazy

-Stannis and Mellisandre's shadows/magic


If all was right with the world Lysa would  have sent her men, and Stannis and his host would be dead.

That would have changed everything. I think Renly could have been persuaded to have the North/Riverlands independent. He is a realist. They would have smashed the lannister host and laid siege to KL. Game over.

But that would not be terribly interesting.

[Corm]

Renly said he could style himself as the King in the North, so long as he bends the knee, otherwise he wasn't having it.

Based on everything that happened I don't see any way that Robb could have saved himself at this stage unless he renounced himself as King in the North, which for some strange reason he refused to do.

[Ser Hippie]

Catelyn knows Lysa is off her rocker by this point (which is why she has been telling Robb not to expect any help - something she re-emphasizes in ASOS - from the Vale), even when he's gotten to the point of just wanting to march through to transport his army north from Gulltown.

Renly would let Robb keep empty titles, but I see no way he accepts a truly independent North/Riverlands, especially with Mace Tyrell likely pushing him to defeat Robb in the name of protecting Margaery's/his interests. Of Renly, Joffrey and Stannis, Renly is the one least hostile to Robb, but none of the three would accept independence.

Edited by Ser Hippie, 12 April 2012 - 05:20 PM.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Ser Hippie, on 12 April 2012 - 04:05 PM, said:

Robb doesn't have 40,000 troops in reserve, because if he did they could have easily taken Moat Cailin from the North and we'd have known about them. The Lannister army/armies is/are definitely larger than the Northern one (although how it exactly compares to the Riverlands/Northern combined army, I'm not sure).

Which was exactly was Jory Cassel was going to do till Theon and Ramsay interferred. Also, Victarion sat in Moat Cailin with 10,000-15,000 Ironborn. In a fortress, a force multiplier. Jory needed more time to gather additional troops over the 9,000,000 square kilometres of the North.
And we do hear from them - read Dance and look for Northern troops.
The Lannister army was slightly larger than the Northern one - till they get several beatings. Without counting the Riverlords.

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In any case, the point is that by declaring independence, Robb has expressed hostility to each of the potential victors in the south (Renly, Joffrey, Stannis) and deprived himself of two potential allies (Renly and Stannis). He continued this policy even after Renly's death, Stannis' defeat/the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, and recognizes that mistake as they're marching to Twins in ASOS (at which point it's too late).

Once he and his bannermen reject peace and refuse to bend the knee (to anyone),

(1) Robb needs allies. The Grejoys reject alliance and attack him, Renly will only accept an alliance if Robb bends the knee, which he won't do (Stannis is the same, only harsher). Lysa refuses to mobilize the Vale to support him.

and/or

(2) Robb needs the other factions to wear themselves out enough that he has time to maneuver (diplomatically or militarily) after they start taking each other off the board. Renly dies quickly, which hurts this objective and then the double whammy of the Tyrell-Lannister alliance and Stannis getting routed.

or

(3) Hope Renly wins and is generous (Stannis isn't the type to forgive an independent North/Riverlands). Once Renly is dead, that option is gone.

Once Renly is dead, Robb's options are increasingly limited. He doesn't throw in with Stannis or apparently consider other strategies though, and keeps fighting. Once the Tyrell-Lannister alliance crushes Stannis at the Blackwater, Robb's not going to win that war unless he abandons the Riverlands (and can build enough naval strength to hold back the Tyrells' fleet). He need not have thrown the towel in right away, but he should have known when to cut his losses and he didn't until it was too late.

----------------------------------

Also, for those of you arguing that Robb can't well bend the knee or make peace because the Riverlands need to be avenged; he's quite willing to leave the riverlords at the mercy of the Tyrell-Lannister army anyway. What did he/anyone expect would happen once he's marched north to retake Winterfell/the North while leaving the Tyrells and Lannisters behind?

Robb could reasonably expect to lead a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Greyjoy alliance against a Tyrell-Baratheon alliance, single Dragonstone, single Lannister and single Dorne. One generation earlier, a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon alliance beat a Tyrell-Dragonstone-Dorne alliance. And out of these, the Baratheons are the weakest apart from Dragonstone.
Even with just Stark-Tully against Tyrell-Baratheon, he had only a minor disadvantage. Being on the defensive, he could deal with that.
His problem was the Lannister-Tyrell-Greyjoy-Bolton-Frey de facto alliance against him.

[Ser Hippie]

Bright Blue Eyes, on 12 April 2012 - 05:21 PM, said:

Which was exactly was Jory Cassel was going to do till Theon and Ramsay interferred. Also, Victarion sat in Moat Cailin with 10,000-15,000 Ironborn. In a fortress, a force multiplier. Jory needed more time to gather additional troops over the 9,000,000 square kilometres of the North.

Rodrik Cassel you mean? Rodrik is left behind as castellan of Winterfell.

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And we do hear from them - read Dance and look for Northern troops.
The Lannister army was slightly larger than the Northern one - till they get several beatings. Without counting the Riverlords.

Bolton has a few thousand men, the mountain clans are estimated at 3-4,000 among them, that's not 40,000. The Lannister army greatly outnumbered the Starks' alone, though. Tywin outnumbers Bolton, who has the majority of Robb's North+Frey forces, at the Green Fork and Robb himself only has about 5,000 troops at Whispering Wood and Riverrun. The armies of the riverlords obviously help, but Robb's army isn't particularly big, especially compared to the Tyrells.

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Robb could reasonably expect to lead a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Greyjoy alliance against a Tyrell-Baratheon alliance, single Dragonstone, single Lannister and single Dorne.

Except it was both illogical and dangerous to expect the Greyjoys to help the Starks (particularly once he released his only leverage over them in Theon) and Catelyn warned him that Lysa was at least sort of nuts. He had the North (~18k men with him) and the Riverlands (already bloodied by war), that was it.

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One generation earlier, a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon alliance beat a Tyrell-Dragonstone-Dorne alliance. And out of these, the Baratheons are the weakest apart from Dragonstone.

Yes, and this time his alliance is missing the Vale and Baratheons and the Tully forces have already gotten beaten up by the Lannisters. That, and unlike during Robert's Rebellion, the Tyrell forces aren't just sitting outside Storm's End the entire time.

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Even with just Stark-Tully against Tyrell-Baratheon, he had only a minor disadvantage. Being on the defensive, he could deal with that.

Even ignoring the Greyjoys, he's greatly outnumbered and has no friends among the anti-Lannister forces. And that's ignoring the fact the Greyjoys undermine his political strength, cut him off from the North and (apparently) kill his two male heirs.

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His problem was the Lannister-Tyrell-Greyjoy-Bolton-Frey de facto alliance against him.

Even if Frey/Bolton don't turn on him, he's already lost the war. He lost the war when he failed to ally with either Baratheon brother or come to terms with the Lannisters and insisted on keeping his crown and independent kingdom. Had he given up that crown and bent the knee to someone (be it allying a Baratheon or even the Tyrells or suing for peace), things would have been better for the loyal North and the Starks.

And, again...let's be really generous and say Frey/Bolton stay loyal and he captures Moat Cailin and heads north to recapture the North. What do you think happens when the Tyrell-Lannister army reaches the Riverlands?

Edited by Ser Hippie, 12 April 2012 - 05:34 PM.

[LuisDantas]

No, I don't see how Catelyn could be right.  Particularly because of the Red Wedding, which was mainly Tywin's doing.  

Tywin was quite obviously a cancer that needed to be excised from Westeros' ruling elite, and the sooner, the better.

[Corm]

Bright Blue Eyes, on 12 April 2012 - 05:21 PM, said:

Robb could reasonably expect to lead a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Greyjoy alliance against a Tyrell-Baratheon alliance, single Dragonstone, single Lannister and single Dorne. One generation earlier, a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon alliance beat a Tyrell-Dragonstone-Dorne alliance. And out of these, the Baratheons are the weakest apart from Dragonstone.
Even with just Stark-Tully against Tyrell-Baratheon, he had only a minor disadvantage. Being on the defensive, he could deal with that.
His problem was the Lannister-Tyrell-Greyjoy-Bolton-Frey de facto alliance against him.

I'm assuming the time in question is at the beginning of COK still?
I don't think he could reasonably expect that. I think he could have hoped for it but a leader and a soldier always prepares for the worst.

As regards the generation earlier, that was with the Tyrell forces and the main naval force at storm's end without actually being involved in the main battle, with him out in the open it would have been significantly more difficult.

His problem was being too stubborn and trying to be a King. Oh, and screwing Jeyne Westerling. And Catelyn releasing Jaime.

Edited by Corm, 12 April 2012 - 05:36 PM.

[Hear Us Roar]

LuisDantas, on 12 April 2012 - 05:30 PM, said:

No, I don't see how Catelyn could be right.  Particularly because of the Red Wedding, which was mainly Tywin's doing.  

Tywin was quite obviously a cancer that needed to be excised from Westeros' ruling elite, and the sooner, the better.

Tywin saved many lives in the long run by wiping out the leadership.

Being a lord is extreme social Darwinism.

whatever it takes to secure your house.

Look at Martell's still obsessed with revenge rather than letting it go, would risk their entire nation for it.

A lot of people criticize Lyssa for being insane and cowardly, she was smart to keep her people and lands out of the war.

Edited by Hear Us Roar, 12 April 2012 - 05:42 PM.

[LuisDantas]

Hear Us Roar, on 12 April 2012 - 05:41 PM, said:

Tywin saved many lives in the long run by wiping out the leadership.

I beg your pardon?  

Whose lives, which leadership?

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Being a lord is extreme social Darwinism.

There are those who believe so, I suppose.  

Tywin himself seems to have had such a belief, possibly as an over-reaction to the shame from his father's failings.

That in no way justifies his own behavior, however.

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whatever it takes to secure your house.

"Whatever"?  Really?

That way lies war and ruin.  As Tywin and all of Westeros learned.

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Look at Martell's still obsessed with revenge rather than letting it go, would risk their entire nation for it.

A lot of people criticize Lyssa for being insane and cowardly, she was smart to keep her people and lands out of the war.

You realize that the War of the Five Kings was began by Tywin ordering the Mountain to scorch the Riverlands?  I do not understand what your point was supposed to be here.

[James Arryn]

I don't think it would work, no. Ultimately the alternative didn't, but I think going with Cat's plan would just have been a slower death.

Even if we assume that the Iron Throne, in whatever guise, would forgive and forget in reality what they'd agree to do in theory...and if it's Tywin they're dealing with, all he'd be doing is buying time to take on enemies one at a time...the fact is suing for peace at that time loses you your credibility with your own lords. Think House Lannister before Tywin, etc. They would be seen to be weak...you could kill the head of their house, slay his loyal retainers, etc. and get away with it so long as you hold a daughter or 2.

It would be loudly admitting weakness, and that will kill you, either from within or without.

Edit: the only way it works is if you agree to peace with Stannis or Renly and they win/Lannisters lose. Then you could be said to have upheld your honor and gotten peace. But no peace with the Lannisters/Baratheons of KL was workable.

Edited by James Arryn, 12 April 2012 - 05:58 PM.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes, I meant Rodrik Cassel, I'm mixing these two up all the time.
And in Dance, there are 5,000 clans, 10,000-15,000 Manderley, 2,000 Umber, 1,000 Karstark mentioned and three quarter of the northern nobility not yet mentioned.
And of course the inital Lannister army outnumbered Robb. They committed 2/3 of their strength, and Robb 1/3. And the Lannisters lost 1/4 with Jaime and 1/5 with Stefford. Gone. Finito. Not in the picture anymore.
Robbs initial problem with gathering his army was time and space. The North is roughly 3,000*3,000 kilometres, that means close to half a year of marching to get from the Wall to Moat Cailin. Compare that to the narrow Westerlands with 500 kilometres from Casterley Rock to Riverrun.

Oh, and during Roberts Rebellion, the North was the only united country. Stormlords like Connington and friends, Gulltown, the Darrys and some other Riverlords fought for Aerys.

Robb and Renley were the people with the best chance to win the War of the Five Kings. The War was a complete turnabout of chances. The two parties almost guaranteed to lose, won. More or less, the war isn't over.

[A Free Shadow]

LuisDantas, on 12 April 2012 - 05:30 PM, said:

No, I don't see how Catelyn could be right.  Particularly because of the Red Wedding, which was mainly Tywin's doing.  

Tywin was quite obviously a cancer that needed to be excised from Westeros' ruling elite, and the sooner, the better.

Tywin was no cancer. A capable, strongly equipped lord. He mostly minded his own business, until crossed. But I agree that Starks should  not have laid down their weapons against such enemy easily.

Edited by A Free Shadow, 12 April 2012 - 06:02 PM.

[Hear Us Roar]

LuisDantas, on 12 April 2012 - 05:56 PM, said:

I beg your pardon?  

Whose lives, which leadership?





There are those who believe so, I suppose.  

Tywin himself seems to have had such a belief, possibly as an over-reaction to the shame from his father's failings.

That in no way justifies his own behavior, however.




"Whatever"?  Really?

That way lies war and ruin.  As Tywin and all of Westeros learned.





You realize that the War of the Five Kings was began by Tywin ordering the Mountain to scorch the Riverlands?  I do not understand what your point was supposed to be here.

yes whatever. That is how a house stays around for thousands of years, it is not blind luck.

He ordered that after Cat took his son

she started it the war

Edited by Hear Us Roar, 12 April 2012 - 06:05 PM.

[LuisDantas]

A Free Shadow, on 12 April 2012 - 06:01 PM, said:

Tywin was no cancer. A capable, strongly equipped lord. He mostly minded his own business, until crossed. But I agree that Starks should  not have laid down their weapons against such enemy easily.

What is your opinion about the burning of lands that he ordered Gregor Clegane to do during AGOT?

[LuisDantas]

Hear Us Roar, on 12 April 2012 - 06:04 PM, said:

yes whatever. That is how a house stays around for thousands of years, it is not blind luck.

He ordered that after Cat took his son

she started it the war

Assuming you are right, I can only say that being part of a house that lasts for millennia isn't something to be proud of then.

[A Free Shadow]

LuisDantas, on 12 April 2012 - 06:10 PM, said:

What is your opinion about the burning of lands that he ordered Gregor Clegane to do during AGOT?

I do not believe you argue he had no cause to strike back. As for the method, it was part of where his power came from. Not once he had shown that it is better not to attack his family. And you do not back off from such things. When Jaime saw Freys "threatening" to hang
Edmure each day, he took them for fools and doormats.

Tywin's family was attacked, his child was thrown in into a sky cell. What should he have done? Begged for mercy? Asked politely to sort things out? Tyrion was not asked politely to come before a judge.

Edited by A Free Shadow, 12 April 2012 - 06:45 PM.

[James Arryn]

Hear Us Roar, on 12 April 2012 - 06:04 PM, said:

yes whatever. That is how a house stays around for thousands of years, it is not blind luck.

He ordered that after Cat took his son

she started it the war

Meh. This onion can be peeled back several more layers, or several less. I suppose people will stop at the layer which best fits where the want the blame to rest.

You could say it started with Jon Arryn's murder. Brandon's attempted murder. The second attempt on Bran. The kidnapping of Tyrion. Robert's Rebellion. Robert's whispered 'Lyanna'. Etc. etc.

But a court of inquiry would probably place the blame on Tywin for the Mountain's attacks. The kidnapping would be a criminal offense in isolation, not a martial one. Kidnappings have happened before without wars. It depends on the reactions, not the action itself.

[Ser Hippie]

Bright Blue Eyes, on 12 April 2012 - 05:57 PM, said:

And in Dance, there are 5,000 clans, 10,000-15,000 Manderley, 2,000 Umber, 1,000 Karstark mentioned and three quarter of the northern nobility not yet mentioned.

3-4,000 clansmen, the Karstarks are of questionable loyalty, the Umbers are largely green boys and those not sent south with Robb. Where are you getting 10-15,000 Manderlys from? Justin Massey believes STannis' force (including clansment) to be about equal in size to Bolton's total force, so your numbers don't add up.

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And of course the inital Lannister army outnumbered Robb. They committed 2/3 of their strength, and Robb 1/3. And the Lannisters lost 1/4 with Jaime and 1/5 with Stefford. Gone. Finito. Not in the picture anymore.

And? You referenced Robb's forces being equal to the Lannisters' which was wrong. And, in any case, once Stafford Lannister is defeated, all Robb gains is roaming around in the west until Tywin marches and is held up by Edmure. Once Robb finds out about the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, his course of action should be really clear.

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Robbs initial problem with gathering his army was time and space. The North is roughly 3,000*3,000 kilometres, that means close to half a year of marching to get from the Wall to Moat Cailin. Compare that to the narrow Westerlands with 500 kilometres from Casterley Rock to Riverrun.

(1) Robb isn't marching from the Wall, he gathers some of his banners at Winterfell and marches south where the others join him
(2) Even that aside, Robb only has 18,000 or so men with him before joining the Freys and there's absolutely no sign of a large reserve beyond the forces Rodrik Cassel pieced together in ACOK to fight the ironborn. SUrely if Robb had a large reserve it would have been mentioned at some point.

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Oh, and during Roberts Rebellion, the North was the only united country. Stormlords like Connington and friends, Gulltown, the Darrys and some other Riverlords fought for Aerys.

During the rebellion you had four great families (Stark, Tully, Arryn, Baratheon) allied against three (Targaryen/loyalists, Tyrell, Martell). The Tyrells and forces of the Reach basically played no part in the war outside of Randall Tarly's victory at Ashford, as they spent the rest of the time besieging Storm's End. The Martells don't seem to have played a major role other than at the Trident.

Robb's position and strength is far less than Robert's was during the Rebellion, it's not even close.

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Robb and Renley were the people with the best chance to win the War of the Five Kings. The War was a complete turnabout of chances. The two parties almost guaranteed to lose, won. More or less, the war isn't over.

This doesn't really true in the sense that while 'chance' played a part, Robb's decision to bend the knee or not could have happened at any of a number of times.

(1) Renly stated he would be willing to grant empty titles but not actual independence. He wasn't allied with or supportive of Robb as a real King of the North. Even if Renly wins, if Robb doesn't compromise, it just means a Renly vs. Robb war begins where Robb's on his own against the Greyjoys, Baratheons and Tyrells.

(2) If you actually note the context in which I said the war was over;

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Even if Frey/Bolton don't turn on him, he's already lost the war. He lost the war when he failed to ally with either Baratheon brother or come to terms with the Lannisters and insisted on keeping his crown and independent kingdom.

Neither Baratheon brother will accept an independent North/Riverland kingdom, they both insist on Robb recognizing them as his king. Robb's failure to secure an alliance with either and refusal to seek terms with the Lannisters means he was going to lose the war.

Or, to outline the ACOK situation pre-Renly's death;

(1) Greyjoys are hostile
(2) Lannisters are hostile (unless Robb seeks peace)
(3) Stannis is hostile (unless Robb bends the knee)
(4) Renly is hostile (unless Robb bends the knee, although he's willing to grant empty titles)
(5) Tyrells are hostile (and grow even more hostile once allied to the Lannisters)
(6) Arryns are neutral and not going to get involved
(7) Martells are largely uninvolved but allied to the Lannisters through marriage

Robb fails to change either #3 or #4 and refuses to come to terms with the Lannisters. How has he not lost the war, especially when you add the betrayal of Bolton and Frey (and loss of the Karstarks)?

Or, once Renly is dead and the Tyrells have allied the Lannisters:

Friendly: Tully
Neutral/Uninvolved: Arryn, Martell
Hostile: Greyjoys, Lannisters, Tyrells
Other: Stannis (moving north)

Again, how has Robb not lost the war at this point? He's vastly outnumbered, the North has fallen, the Riverlands will be in serious trouble if/when he marches north, Bolton/Frey are plotting against him....

Edited by Ser Hippie, 12 April 2012 - 06:22 PM.

[A Free Shadow]

James Arryn, on 12 April 2012 - 06:14 PM, said:

Meh. This onion can be peeled back several more layers, or several less. I suppose people will stop at the layer which best fits where the want the blame to rest.

You could say it started with Jon Arryn's murder. Brandon's attempted murder. The second attempt on Bran. The kidnapping of Tyrion. Robert's Rebellion. Robert's whispered 'Lyanna'. Etc. etc.

But a court of inquiry would probably place the blame on Tywin for the Mountain's attacks. The kidnapping would be a criminal offense in isolation, not a martial one. Kidnappings have happened before without wars. It depends on the reactions, not the action itself.

And if you peel less, you end up with broth too thin.
You can not say all began with the second attempt on Bran, because, I believe, concious choices are argued here. When Catelyn took Tyrion, war was one of the very few likely outcomes. And, knowing "The Rains of Castamere", the likeliest.  
What courts are you talking about. Today's? I think it should have no place in this argument.