Bright Blue Eyes, on 12 April 2012 - 05:57 PM, said:
And in Dance, there are 5,000 clans, 10,000-15,000 Manderley, 2,000 Umber, 1,000 Karstark mentioned and three quarter of the northern nobility not yet mentioned.
3-4,000 clansmen, the Karstarks are of questionable loyalty, the Umbers are largely green boys and those not sent south with Robb. Where are you getting 10-15,000 Manderlys from? Justin Massey believes STannis' force (including clansment) to be about equal in size to Bolton's total
force, so your numbers don't add up.
And of course the inital Lannister army outnumbered Robb. They committed 2/3 of their strength, and Robb 1/3. And the Lannisters lost 1/4 with Jaime and 1/5 with Stefford. Gone. Finito. Not in the picture anymore.
And? You referenced Robb's forces being equal to the Lannisters' which was wrong. And, in any case, once Stafford Lannister is defeated, all Robb gains is roaming around in the west until Tywin marches and is held up by Edmure. Once Robb finds out about the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, his course of action should be really clear.
Robbs initial problem with gathering his army was time and space. The North is roughly 3,000*3,000 kilometres, that means close to half a year of marching to get from the Wall to Moat Cailin. Compare that to the narrow Westerlands with 500 kilometres from Casterley Rock to Riverrun.
(1) Robb isn't marching from the Wall, he gathers some of his banners at Winterfell and marches south where the others join him
(2) Even that aside, Robb only has 18,000 or so men with him before joining the Freys and there's absolutely no sign of a large reserve beyond the forces Rodrik Cassel pieced together in ACOK to fight the ironborn. SUrely if Robb had a large reserve it would have been mentioned at some point.
Oh, and during Roberts Rebellion, the North was the only united country. Stormlords like Connington and friends, Gulltown, the Darrys and some other Riverlords fought for Aerys.
During the rebellion you had four great families (Stark, Tully, Arryn, Baratheon) allied against three (Targaryen/loyalists, Tyrell, Martell). The Tyrells and forces of the Reach basically played no part in the war outside of Randall Tarly's victory at Ashford, as they spent the rest of the time besieging Storm's End. The Martells don't seem to have played a major role other than at the Trident.
Robb's position and strength is far less than Robert's was during the Rebellion, it's not even close.
Robb and Renley were the people with the best chance to win the War of the Five Kings. The War was a complete turnabout of chances. The two parties almost guaranteed to lose, won. More or less, the war isn't over.
This doesn't really true in the sense that while 'chance' played a part, Robb's decision to bend the knee or not could have happened at any of a number of times.
(1) Renly stated he would be willing to grant empty titles but not actual independence. He wasn't allied with or supportive of Robb as a real King of the North. Even if Renly wins, if Robb doesn't compromise, it just means a Renly vs. Robb war begins where Robb's on his own against the Greyjoys, Baratheons and Tyrells.
(2) If you actually note the context in which I said the war was over;
Even if Frey/Bolton don't turn on him, he's already lost the war. He lost the war when he failed to ally with either Baratheon brother or come to terms with the Lannisters and insisted on keeping his crown and independent kingdom.
Neither Baratheon brother will accept an independent North/Riverland kingdom, they both insist on Robb recognizing them as his king. Robb's failure to secure an alliance with either and refusal to seek terms with the Lannisters means he was going to lose the war.
Or, to outline the ACOK situation pre-Renly's death;
(1) Greyjoys are hostile
(2) Lannisters are hostile (unless Robb seeks peace)
(3) Stannis is hostile (unless Robb bends the knee)
(4) Renly is hostile (unless Robb bends the knee, although he's willing to grant empty titles)
(5) Tyrells are hostile (and grow even more hostile once allied to the Lannisters)
(6) Arryns are neutral and not going to get involved
(7) Martells are largely uninvolved but allied to the Lannisters through marriage
Robb fails to change either #3 or #4 and refuses to come to terms with the Lannisters. How has he not lost the war, especially when you add the betrayal of Bolton and Frey (and loss of the Karstarks)?
Or, once Renly is dead and the Tyrells have allied the Lannisters:
Neutral/Uninvolved: Arryn, Martell
Hostile: Greyjoys, Lannisters, Tyrells
Other: Stannis (moving north)
Again, how has Robb not lost the war at this point? He's vastly outnumbered, the North has fallen, the Riverlands will be in serious trouble if/when he marches north, Bolton/Frey are plotting against him....
Edited by Ser Hippie, 12 April 2012 - 06:22 PM.