For me the problem stems from the whole King in the North idea. If they had gone to war to avenge Ned, defend the Riverlands and then remove the illegitimate king then they could have sided with Renly or Stannis and removed Joffrey. Insisting on becoming independent basically isolated them from any potential alliances. If they hadn't have had to defend the Riverlands then they could have just sat behind Moat Cailin and said 'come and have a go if you think you're hard enough' but once they got past the neck they needed allies. If the Vale had weighed in then that would have helped a lot and shaped things differently but as it is they were a long way from home, in a strategically difficult position with no real way forward. There was a lack of clear goals, were they trying to overthrow the King, cripple the Lannisters in the west or become independent? If you are going to succeed you need clearly defined objectives you are united in, the strategy just wasn't there and they were doomed to failure.
As it is when they were at that point how could they make a peace? To do so would mean to have bent the knee to Joffrey, how could they possibly have done that at this point in the game? In hindsight yes you could say it was the better choice but at that point there is no way they could have made a decent peace which would have lasted or not completely humiliated them and seriously undermined Robb's and with it the Stark's position as wardens of the North. These are proud men who have suffered heavy personal losses and the offence of their Lord being murdered. There's no way in hell they could have said 'ok let's go home, Joffrey is king, we'll forget about everything else'. It would have been unspeakably shameful and would most likely have seen other houses in the North (the Boltons for one) move against Robb, possibly leading to a Northern civil war just as winter is setting in, which would absolutely cripple it.
If it wasn't for the red wedding they could well have fought on and secured a much better settlement then if they had caved in at this point. But as it is once the Boltons turned that was that and the reason they turned is because it became clear to Roose Bolton that it was an incoherent and unwinnable war and he would benefit more by going to the Lannisters. The Freys take all the crap for the red wedding and rightfully so, but without the Boltons outside the castle there is no way they would have tried such a move. The whole thing comes from the Boltons switching and that comes from a lack of coherent leadership and realistic aims I am afraid.
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Was Catelyn right?
Started by
Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren
, Apr 12 2012 10:06 AM
154 replies to this topic
#62
Barty
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Posted 12 April 2012 - 07:57 PM
First of all - it was not a mistake to send theon - Balon greyjoy had alrady called his longships and was going to attack the north irrespective of whether robb sent theon or anybody else.
Becoming king ruled out any possibility of an alliance also Lysa (the bitch) refused all aid to him - the Vale could have turned this battle around - with the armies of the vale Robb would have had enough men to besiege harrenhall - leaving stannis free to take kings Landing and then he could have bent the knee and together he and stannis would have taken harrenhall.
Catelyn caused the red wedding - first by agreeing to stupid terms in getting the frey alliance then letting Jaime go which cost Robb the Karstarks. If robb held jaime then tywin would never have authorised the red wedding and tyrion clearly states that walder frey would never have gone through with the red wedding without lannister's approval.
Becoming king ruled out any possibility of an alliance also Lysa (the bitch) refused all aid to him - the Vale could have turned this battle around - with the armies of the vale Robb would have had enough men to besiege harrenhall - leaving stannis free to take kings Landing and then he could have bent the knee and together he and stannis would have taken harrenhall.
Catelyn caused the red wedding - first by agreeing to stupid terms in getting the frey alliance then letting Jaime go which cost Robb the Karstarks. If robb held jaime then tywin would never have authorised the red wedding and tyrion clearly states that walder frey would never have gone through with the red wedding without lannister's approval.
#63
Barty
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Posted 12 April 2012 - 08:04 PM
has anyone ever thought of how stupid the terms were which catelyn agreed to for the freys to join them?? Marriage of Robb one of the greatest lords of the seven kingdoms to a lowly house like frey and not just robb but also Arya?? Personal squire and two fosterlings - all for an alliance that should have cost nothing as frey was a bannerman to catelyn's father.
All this proves Catelyn was an idiot - the greatjon could have hammered out a better deal.
All this proves Catelyn was an idiot - the greatjon could have hammered out a better deal.
#64
David Selig
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Posted 12 April 2012 - 08:11 PM
^No, nobody ever did, you are the first one who ever thought so. Congratulations!
Of course some people have said so, and they were wrong. It was a very good under the circumstances. 4000 men and a passage at a crucial moment which allowed an important victory for a promise of 2 marriages.
Of course some people have said so, and they were wrong. It was a very good under the circumstances. 4000 men and a passage at a crucial moment which allowed an important victory for a promise of 2 marriages.
#65
Barty
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Posted 12 April 2012 - 08:18 PM
David Selig, on 12 April 2012 - 08:11 PM, said:
^No, nobody ever did, you are the first one who ever thought so. Congratulations!
Of course some people have said so, and they were wrong. It was a very good under the circumstances. 4000 men and a passage at a crucial moment which allowed an important victory for a promise of 2 marriages.
Of course some people have said so, and they were wrong. It was a very good under the circumstances. 4000 men and a passage at a crucial moment which allowed an important victory for a promise of 2 marriages.
#66
The Frosted King
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Posted 12 April 2012 - 08:19 PM
Nope David.
It wasn't very good, all circumstances considered.
She should've offered Edmure, as that was the original desire of Lord Frey.
Especially since they didn't have an impromptu wedding then and there to seal it.
With Edmure promised, Robb could've likely cast his hand out once his first victories at the WW and the Camps saw him crowned.
Now he's not a great lord, but a king with an enormous realm available to marry.
It wasn't very good, all circumstances considered.
She should've offered Edmure, as that was the original desire of Lord Frey.
Especially since they didn't have an impromptu wedding then and there to seal it.
With Edmure promised, Robb could've likely cast his hand out once his first victories at the WW and the Camps saw him crowned.
Now he's not a great lord, but a king with an enormous realm available to marry.
#67
LordofWinter
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Posted 12 April 2012 - 10:31 PM
IMO, she was not in the right and played a huge role in the eventual demise of Robb. Say what you will about the continuation of war being bad for everybody, but holding Jamie Lannister was crucial in the Starks power. It not only gave them a bartering chip with the iron throne but also help to keep the northmen faithful in their war. By releasing Jamie she caused the unravelling of Robb's host - yes his going ahead and marrying some chick who's castle he had just conquered didn't help- because he was seen as the young wolf who couldn't control his own mother.
and it's not sexist to say that a woman who has NEVER LED NOR BEEN IN A WAR should not be commenting on military strategy, regardless of who's widow/mother she is. Peace was just a better sounding word for surrender, which would be exactly what the North would be doing if they did that.
and it's not sexist to say that a woman who has NEVER LED NOR BEEN IN A WAR should not be commenting on military strategy, regardless of who's widow/mother she is. Peace was just a better sounding word for surrender, which would be exactly what the North would be doing if they did that.
#68
Howling Mad
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Posted 12 April 2012 - 11:19 PM
Bright Blue Eyes, on 12 April 2012 - 10:29 AM, said:
Strategically, she was wrong. Several reasons:
1. With Joffrey and Cersei calling the shots, a peace wouldn't have lasted.
2. A King Lannister in general couldn't let such a power block challenging him off easy or he would be very weak and likely lose the throne.
3. Peace without a clear victory would weaken the Starks position in the North and the Riverlands.
The Starks needed a decivise victory crippling or dividing the South for at least one generation, preferably some autonomous kingdoms more.
1. With Joffrey and Cersei calling the shots, a peace wouldn't have lasted.
2. A King Lannister in general couldn't let such a power block challenging him off easy or he would be very weak and likely lose the throne.
3. Peace without a clear victory would weaken the Starks position in the North and the Riverlands.
The Starks needed a decivise victory crippling or dividing the South for at least one generation, preferably some autonomous kingdoms more.
At the time Joffery sat the Iron Throne and both Renly and Stannis were vying for the seat. The best of the bad options was the one he took - keep fighting and attempt an alliance with the strongest force i.e. Renly.
#69
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 04:02 AM
Scootydowop, on 12 April 2012 - 08:19 PM, said:
Nope David.
It wasn't very good, all circumstances considered.
She should've offered Edmure, as that was the original desire of Lord Frey.
Especially since they didn't have an impromptu wedding then and there to seal it.
With Edmure promised, Robb could've likely cast his hand out once his first victories at the WW and the Camps saw him crowned.
Now he's not a great lord, but a king with an enormous realm available to marry.
It wasn't very good, all circumstances considered.
She should've offered Edmure, as that was the original desire of Lord Frey.
Especially since they didn't have an impromptu wedding then and there to seal it.
With Edmure promised, Robb could've likely cast his hand out once his first victories at the WW and the Camps saw him crowned.
Now he's not a great lord, but a king with an enormous realm available to marry.
#70
Lyanna Stark
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 04:41 AM
David Selig, on 13 April 2012 - 04:02 AM, said:
How could Catelyn offer Edmure when at this point neither her nor Robb had any authority over him and had no way to contact him? He was even a prisoner of the Lannister at the time. Why would Walder Frey agree to such an offer?
Stop talking sense, you are interrupting the slagging off of Cat.
#71
Ran
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 04:59 AM
From another thread:
Renly made a great marriage, it's true -- but that's because he's been tied to the Tyrells for years, through Loras.
We know there was haggling. You can imagine that the marriage agreement Catelyn made was the best Walder Frey was going to allow, in the end. He knew what the Crossing was worth to Robb Stark in that moment -- i.e. everything -- and he extracted everything he could from that fact.
LordOfWinter,
It was a bargaining chip that was in fact worthless, as ACoK and the fact that Tywin was plotting the Red Wedding in Tyrion's very first ASoS chapter shows. Tywin did not stop persecuting his war because Jaime was held, he did not offer a massive ransom or exchange of hostages, etc. He acted as if Jaime was a prisoner of honorable captors and that meant Jaime was safe, and so why do anything to retrieve him prematurely?
As to the northmen faithful... the northmen remained faithful, on the whole. Roose Bolton was already a traitor, so the only one who genuinely went traitorous were the Karstarks, and I'm not sure Karstark loyalty was worth leaving Arya and Sansa as notional prisoners, especially the importance of both of those girls in dynastic terms. If they had Sansa returned to them unwed, a Highgarden-Winterfell alliance could very well have happened after all as Robb would have been likelier to actually think of it.
It's a shame that the television show replaces Catelyn's fairly reasoned argument for putting an end to the war with "We will kill them all." Nice line, but not Catelyn.
Barty,
Of course it was. Winterfell would not have fallen, Bran and Rickon would not be believed dead, and very possibly Ramsay Snow would not have had the opportunity to betray the Starks and destroy the Stark loyalist army in the north almost single-handedly.
Robb should have sent someone else as envoy, and he shouldn't have trusted either Theon or Balon, really. Had he listened to Catelyn, things would have gone somewhat better. His grip on power would have been stronger.
Quote
Robb's efforts would have been completely wasted without the Freys. Robb knew it, Catelyn knew it... and Walder Frey knew it.
And marrying one of the great houses of the riverlands -- however new and disreputable, the Freys are a solidly "second tier" house -- is not, really, a bad thing. Who else is Robb going to marry, really? No Lannister, no Greyjoy, no Arryn, no Baratheon, no Tully... there's basically Arianne in Dorne, which no one ever thinks about for even a second, and then there's Margaery Tyrell but that was basically never going to happen since Mace aspired to have ties to the Iron Throne, basically, which Robb did not in fact aspire to (nor should he have).
Maegor the Cruel married a Westerling, Aegon III Dragonbane married a Velaryon, and so on and so forth. Not all marriages need be hugely valuable in the long-run -- sometimes they're made for short-term and expedient goals, and you just deal with not having the option on the table down the road.
And marrying one of the great houses of the riverlands -- however new and disreputable, the Freys are a solidly "second tier" house -- is not, really, a bad thing. Who else is Robb going to marry, really? No Lannister, no Greyjoy, no Arryn, no Baratheon, no Tully... there's basically Arianne in Dorne, which no one ever thinks about for even a second, and then there's Margaery Tyrell but that was basically never going to happen since Mace aspired to have ties to the Iron Throne, basically, which Robb did not in fact aspire to (nor should he have).
Maegor the Cruel married a Westerling, Aegon III Dragonbane married a Velaryon, and so on and so forth. Not all marriages need be hugely valuable in the long-run -- sometimes they're made for short-term and expedient goals, and you just deal with not having the option on the table down the road.
Renly made a great marriage, it's true -- but that's because he's been tied to the Tyrells for years, through Loras.
We know there was haggling. You can imagine that the marriage agreement Catelyn made was the best Walder Frey was going to allow, in the end. He knew what the Crossing was worth to Robb Stark in that moment -- i.e. everything -- and he extracted everything he could from that fact.
LordOfWinter,
Quote
but holding Jamie Lannister was crucial in the Starks power.
It was a bargaining chip that was in fact worthless, as ACoK and the fact that Tywin was plotting the Red Wedding in Tyrion's very first ASoS chapter shows. Tywin did not stop persecuting his war because Jaime was held, he did not offer a massive ransom or exchange of hostages, etc. He acted as if Jaime was a prisoner of honorable captors and that meant Jaime was safe, and so why do anything to retrieve him prematurely?
As to the northmen faithful... the northmen remained faithful, on the whole. Roose Bolton was already a traitor, so the only one who genuinely went traitorous were the Karstarks, and I'm not sure Karstark loyalty was worth leaving Arya and Sansa as notional prisoners, especially the importance of both of those girls in dynastic terms. If they had Sansa returned to them unwed, a Highgarden-Winterfell alliance could very well have happened after all as Robb would have been likelier to actually think of it.
It's a shame that the television show replaces Catelyn's fairly reasoned argument for putting an end to the war with "We will kill them all." Nice line, but not Catelyn.
Barty,
Quote
it was not a mistake to send theon
Of course it was. Winterfell would not have fallen, Bran and Rickon would not be believed dead, and very possibly Ramsay Snow would not have had the opportunity to betray the Starks and destroy the Stark loyalist army in the north almost single-handedly.
Robb should have sent someone else as envoy, and he shouldn't have trusted either Theon or Balon, really. Had he listened to Catelyn, things would have gone somewhat better. His grip on power would have been stronger.
Edited by Ran, 13 April 2012 - 05:15 AM.
#72
Towel
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:06 AM
But most of us are in agreement that Tywin actually set up Robb marrying the Jeyne right?
#73
Ran
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:11 AM
Well, Lady Westerling and her brother came up with the plan, and told Tywin (probably so he understood that if the plan worked, they weren't really betraying the Lannisters). Jeyne herself was innocent, her family just pushed her into a situation that they hoped would lead to what it did, in fact, lead to.
#74
Bright Blue Eyes
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:17 AM
Ran, on 13 April 2012 - 05:11 AM, said:
Well, Lady Westerling and her brother came up with the plan, and told Tywin (probably so he understood that if the plan worked, they weren't really betraying the Lannisters). Jeyne herself was innocent, her family just pushed her into a situation that they hoped would lead to what it did, in fact, lead to.
#75
Ran
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:18 AM
Or not.
Jeyne is Jeyne (in the book, anyways), and it's Tywin and Kevan who reveal the Spicer treachery against Robb in ASoS. Sybelle merely confirms that it is true.
Jeyne is Jeyne (in the book, anyways), and it's Tywin and Kevan who reveal the Spicer treachery against Robb in ASoS. Sybelle merely confirms that it is true.
Edited by Ran, 13 April 2012 - 05:19 AM.
#76
Bright Blue Eyes
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:19 AM
it's all a maybe. We'll wait and find out.
#77
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:22 AM
Ran, on 13 April 2012 - 05:11 AM, said:
Well, Lady Westerling and her brother came up with the plan, and told Tywin (probably so he understood that if the plan worked, they weren't really betraying the Lannisters). Jeyne herself was innocent, her family just pushed her into a situation that they hoped would lead to what it did, in fact, lead to.
Jeyne is clealy fully in love with Robb...But you don't think tywin set the plan up to lady west first? I guess i always read it that way.
BTW: i trust a Ran theory over most. So jeyne is jeyne.
Edited by Towel, 13 April 2012 - 05:24 AM.
#78
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:24 AM
Highly unlikely that Tywin planned everything in advance. How could Tywin predict Robb wouldd be injured during taking the Westerling castle thus causing him to stay there for a time and that he'd be such a fool as to marry Jeyne against all common sense and duty?
Edited by David Selig, 13 April 2012 - 05:27 AM.
#79
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:28 AM
How could Tywin assume a virgin 16 year old would fall in love with a beautiful girl who was taking care of him, have sex with her, and then do the only honorable thing and marry her?
You do realize he's Ned Jr right?
EDIT: You said get injured. He got injured yes, and he was taken care of. But i think it's pretty easy to assume that even if he wasn't injured, he would of been talking to Jeyne. Tywin telling Lady Westerling to convince Jeyne to seduce Robb wouldn't of held any details.
You do realize he's Ned Jr right?
EDIT: You said get injured. He got injured yes, and he was taken care of. But i think it's pretty easy to assume that even if he wasn't injured, he would of been talking to Jeyne. Tywin telling Lady Westerling to convince Jeyne to seduce Robb wouldn't of held any details.
Edited by Towel, 13 April 2012 - 05:31 AM.
#80
Ser Lepus
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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:31 AM
Ran, on 13 April 2012 - 05:11 AM, said:
Well, Lady Westerling and her brother came up with the plan, and told Tywin (probably so he understood that if the plan worked, they weren't really betraying the Lannisters). Jeyne herself was innocent, her family just pushed her into a situation that they hoped would lead to what it did, in fact, lead to.
If Lady Westerling was the one coming with the plan and putting it into action without asking Tywin first, she is either a very cunning and bold plotter or a very stupid one...she couldn't be sure that Lord Frey wouldn't be appeased by Edmure's marriage; her plan could have failed and Tywin could very well have decided that the Westerlings weren't really on his side, and that she was probably trying to make her daughter queen while securing Tywin's forgiveness in case it didn't worked (she probably was really doing that).
