423 replies to this topic

[Apple Martini]

PatrickStormborn, on 21 April 2012 - 04:22 PM, said:

Mirri's sacrifice caused Dany to go into labour. "The price is too high." Mirri knowingly sacrificed Rhaego. This is known.

My point stands that if Drogo had actually followed his instructions, he probably would have healed and there'd be no need for blood magic THAT DANY SIGNED OFF ON. And Jorah still didn't have to bring Dany into the tent, even if she was going into labor.  Far as I'm concerned, Mirri being burned alive was the first, but not the last, case of petulant vengeance that Dany wreaked.

"Death was in that tent." It implies that it was going into the tent that did it, not so much going into labor. And Jorah brought Dany into the tent, not Mirri.

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Dragon eggs, yes, because there has so far been no waking dragons from stone ... and yet all the other conditions in the prophecy have been fulfilled (end of long summer).

It's not over until it's over. That's all I'll say about this.

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So, if Mel proclaims Jon to be Azor Ahai reborn at the beginning of TWOW, you'll disregard it as a lie? Or does this rule only apply when it's Daenerys?

If anyone actually points to Jon and says, "He is Azor Ahai," I'll eat my hat. The point is show, don't tell. I'd assume that an English major would understand this pretty basic principle of writing?

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As far as I'm concerned, Martin confirmed it through Aemon because it was relevant to the plot. It got Marwyn sent to Dany, and Benerro's declaration that it's her got Moqorro sent to her, and it also changed the political structure of Volantis.

Why would Martin need to "confirm" it when any idiot with middle-school-level reading comprehension skills could see that she already fit the signs? I've said before that I thought it was her until Aemon "confirmed" it because that's not what Martin does.

And yeah, Aemon "confirming" it may be what got Marwyn and Moqorro and Benerro and whoever else involved. That doesn't mean she's the real deal. It means that, narratively, Martin had a reason to get the red priests interested in her.

[Dragonfish]

Apple Martini, on 21 April 2012 - 04:31 PM, said:

My point stands that if Drogo had actually followed his instructions, he probably would have healed and there'd be no need for blood magic THAT DANY SIGNED OFF ON.

It's possible Mirri poisoned the poultice. She certainly comes off as if she intended for Drogo to die all along.

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And Jorah still didn't have to bring Dany into the tent, even if she was going into labor.  Far as I'm concerned, Mirri being burned alive was the first, but not the last, case of petulant vengeance that Dany wreaked.

I don't know, the way Mirri talks to Dany after the ritual, it makes it seem as if Rhaego was always going to be the sacrifice, regardless of whether or not Dany was dragged into the tent.

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If anyone actually points to Jon and says, "He is Azor Ahai," I'll eat my hat. The point is show, don't tell. I'd assume that an English major would understand this pretty basic principle of writing?

"Show, don't tell" has always been a pretty simplistic rule. Most writers know that the rule is actually "know when to show and know when to tell." Martin has been showing that Dany was, at the very least, a candidate for AAR/PWWP for about three and a half books. It's not until AFFC that a character finally says outright that she is the PWWP. Similarly, Martin has been "showing" Jon to be a candidate as well, and if he does turn out to be the PWWP, then surely someone in the story will state it explicitly, no?

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Why would Martin need to "confirm" it when any idiot with middle-school-level reading comprehension skills could see that she already fit the signs? I've said before that I thought it was her until Aemon "confirmed" it because that's not what Martin does.

Martin confirms things all the time. He's confirmed who killed Jon Arryn, who sent the assassin after Bran, etc. Just because he likes to leave things open for a while doesn't mean he never has characters confirm things in story.

Apple, you and I agree on a lot of things, but here I honestly must disagree strongly. Dany may or may not be the PWWP, but I don't think we can dismiss her as a candidate simply because a character in the story says she's the PWWP. That way lies madness.

Edited by Dragonfish, 21 April 2012 - 04:58 PM.

[Teal'c]

I do not think the poultice that MMD made for Drogo was poisoned. He took it off because it itched and put mud on it. Itching is normal for a healing wound. Mud is full of coliform bacteria. Drogo is responsible for his own demise.

I do, however believe the MMD knew she was misleading Dany to trade her baby's life for Drogo's, and also about what state Drogo would be in after the magic (UnDrogo).

[Apple Martini]

Dragonfish, on 21 April 2012 - 04:56 PM, said:

It's possible Mirri poisoned the poultice. She certainly comes off as if she intended for Drogo to die all along.

He died because he didn't use the poultice and instead put mud on it.

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"Show, don't tell" has always been a pretty simplistic rule. Most writers know that the rule is actually "know when to show and know when to tell." Martin has been showing that Dany was, at the very least, a candidate for AAR/PWWP for about three and a half books. It's not until AFFC that a character finally says outright that she is the PWWP. Similarly, Martin has been "showing" Jon to be a candidate as well, and if he does turn out to be the PWWP, then surely someone in the story will state it explicitly, no?

I think that AA and/or the PtwP will be known by their actions and what they do, not because someone in the story points at them and says, "Yeah it's totes him." It wouldn't surprise me at all if the "real hero" was never properly referred to by either title.

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Martin confirms things all the time. He's confirmed who killed Jon Arryn, who sent the assassin after Bran, etc. Just because he likes to leave things open for a while doesn't mean he never has characters confirm things in story.

Tyrion (and thus the reader) figures out that Joffrey attempted to assassinate Bran, and Lysa says that she killed Arryn. Both of those things deal with facts — either Joffrey ordered Bran's death or he didn't, either Lysa killed Arryn or she didn't. Neither of those are open to any prophetic interpretation, the way the AA mystery is. That's what makes me disregard or at least seriously side-eye Aemon's "solution."

[Dragonfish]

Apple Martini, on 21 April 2012 - 05:26 PM, said:

He died because he didn't use the poultice and instead put mud on it.

Maybe, though it's unconfirmed.

And you also didn't address the idea that Mirri always intended Rhaego to be the sacrifice for Drogo's "life."

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I think that AA and/or the PtwP will be known by their actions and what they do, not because someone in the story points at them and says, "Yeah it's totes him." It wouldn't surprise me at all if the "real hero" was never properly referred to by either title.

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I simply can't imagine that no one will call Jon Azor Ahai Reborn or the Prince Who Was Promised, if he indeed turns out to be this figure.

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Tyrion (and thus the reader) figures out that Joffrey attempted to assassinate Bran, and Lysa says that she killed Arryn. Both of those things deal with facts — either Joffrey ordered Bran's death or he didn't, either Lysa killed Arryn or she didn't. Neither of those are open to any prophetic interpretation, the way the AA mystery is. That's what makes me disregard or at least seriously side-eye Aemon's "solution."

It's possible I'm unfairly characterizing your position here, but it seems to me that you're moving the goalposts. Your argument, as I recall, has always been the Dany can't be the PWWP simply because a character states it directly in the book. Now that I've pointed out that this isn't a sufficient reason for disregarding her candidacy, you seem to be falling back on some other heretofore unmentioned criteria involving "prophetic interpretation." Again, it's possible I'm mischaracterizing your position here, and if you can provide some quotes that show you've offered this justication before, then I'll withdraw this criticism.

In any case, I still don't see that there is any significant difference between the info confirmed by Lysa and Tyrion and the info involving the PWWP. They are all three mysteries for which George has offered numerous clues and red herrings. The first two have been confirmed before the whole story is over (though it should be noted that there are still people who persist in believing that someone else sent the assassin after Bran), so there's no reason to think that the third one could not also be confirmed before the story is over.

[Apple Martini]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm sick of talking about Dany in what had been a perfectly interesting and thought-provoking thread up until now. If you and Patrick want to congratulate each other over her, feel free.

As for another prophetic interpretation, look at Tyrion as the valonqar. You could easily make the case that it's because Cersei herself thinks that it's him that it won't be. Same with Margaery being the younger queen.

Edited by Apple Martini, 21 April 2012 - 06:11 PM.

[Dragonfish]

Apple Martini, on 21 April 2012 - 06:08 PM, said:

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm sick of talking about Dany in what had been a perfectly interesting and thought-provoking thread up until now. If you and Patrick want to congratulate each other over her, feel free.

Gee, I'm sorry for spoiling your fun. You should have made it clear that only the "desirable types" are allowed in this thread. And as we all know, nothing is more "thought-provoking" than belittling other posters and dismissing their ideas simply because you don't like them.

[Apple Martini]

Dragonfish, on 21 April 2012 - 06:20 PM, said:

Gee, I'm sorry for spoiling your fun. You should have made it clear that only the "desirable types" are allowed in this thread. And as we all know, nothing is more "thought-provoking" than belittling other posters and dismissing their ideas simply because you don't like them.

I'm sorry for that. But I'm not going to lie — the reason I've found this thread so enjoyable is because Dany for the most part hasn't been in it. Keep discussing her if you want, but I'm done with her.

[Dragonfish]

Apple Martini, on 21 April 2012 - 06:26 PM, said:

I'm sorry for that. But I'm not going to lie — the reason I've found this thread so enjoyable is because Dany for the most part hasn't been in it. Keep discussing her if you want, but I'm done with her.

Better suck it up, then. When you make a post about AA candidates, then Dany is almost surely to come up. Next to time you should just put up a warning in your first post that says "No Dany-talk allowed."

Apple Martini, on 21 April 2012 - 06:08 PM, said:

As for another prophetic interpretation, look at Tyrion as the valonqar. You could easily make the case that it's because Cersei herself thinks that it's him that it won't be. Same with Margaery being the younger queen.

The difference there is those are conclusions that characters jump to almost immediately when the prophecy is first mentioned, just as characters immediately assume Cersei poisoned Jon Arryn, or Tyrion tried to kill Bran. So in the case of the PWWP prophecy, the analogy would point to Stannis being a red herring, not Dany.

[Apple Martini]

GiveMeSomeSnow, on 21 April 2012 - 03:47 PM, said:

I had a thought similar to this. We have seen Rangers brought back to life as wights. Rangers who died fighting for the cause of the Nights Watch, of which Jon is Lord Commander.

I thought of wights, too. I don't know if that's the case, but I think it's one of those things where the implication sounds good in theory but in practice it's pretty horrifying.

Dragonfish, on 21 April 2012 - 06:29 PM, said:

Better suck it up, then. When you make a post about AA candidates, then Dany is almost surely to come up. Next to time you should just put up a warning in your first post that says "No Dany-talk allowed."

You're right, I know. Solution for me then is to just not reply in that case.

Edited by Apple Martini, 21 April 2012 - 07:50 PM.

[A Song of Hound and Wolves]

CrypticWeirwood, on 21 April 2012 - 12:36 PM, said:

• Victarion Greyjoy, due to the hell-horn.
  
• Euron “Crow’s Eye” Greyjoy, again due to the hell-horn.
  
• Brandon Stark, our budding greenseer who dreams of flying.

That’s a whole lot of candidates.  Surely some will perish in their attempts, and I don’t mean the way Quentyn did; Martin would never use the same motif twice running. This time it will be much more dramatic.

Imagine that one of the brothers Greyjoy  are cruising along on a horn-controlled dragon at several thousand feet of altitude, when either  greenseer wrests control of the mount away from its rider and proceeds to do loop-the-loops, somersaults, and barrel rolls.

Whoops!

Exit one kraken, who plummets to sure death thousands of feet below, no matter whether he’s plunged into the drink or shattered upon the rocks. A water landing from that height is just as deadly as one on granite.  

And there was much rejoicing.

That's a lucky Greyjoy...

"I never win anything," Dolorous Edd complained. "The gods always smiled on Watt, though. When the wildlings knocked him off the Bridge of Skulls, somehow he landed in a nice deep pool of water. How lucky was that, missing all those rocks?"
"Was it a long fall?" Grenn wanted to know. "Did landing in the pool of water save his life?"
"No," said Dolorous Edd. "He was dead already, from that axe in his head. Still, it was pretty lucky, missing the rocks."

[Hamsa]

I know this is kind of late since we were discussing AA vs. tPtwP several pages ago, and I'm definitely not one to trust HBO content, but since GRRM is the one speaking in this behind-the-scenes video, I figure it might be a small nugget of info to add to the conversation.

http://youtu.be/DIe0Q3PgcOw

At about seven minutes in GRRM is explaining the burning of the seven by Mel and says that in return Stannis is given "a token of his role as the prince that was promised by ancient prophecy". I'm not declaring for one side or the other, but just wanted to throw it out there since this makes it seem like AA and tPtwP can be interchangeable.... Or it could just be GRRM trolling as usual and saying in Mel's POV they're the same person. As always, since it's via HBO, take it with a grain of salt.

Edited by Hamsa, 21 April 2012 - 10:41 PM.

[Dacie]

Apple Martini, on 21 April 2012 - 07:49 PM, said:

I thought of wights, too. I don't know if that's the case, but I think it's one of those things where the implication sounds good in theory but in practice it's pretty horrifying.

Oh i agree. I think this goes more in line with the "Starks will ally with the Others" theories which I don't really like.

[Dacie]

Hamsa, on 21 April 2012 - 10:38 PM, said:

I know this is kind of late since we were discussing AA vs. tPtwP several pages ago, and I'm definitely not one to trust HBO content, but since GRRM is the one speaking in this behind-the-scenes video, I figure it might be a small nugget of info to add to the conversation.

http://youtu.be/DIe0Q3PgcOw

At about seven minutes in GRRM is explaining the burning of the seven by Mel and says that in return Stannis is given "a token of his role as the prince that was promised by ancient prophecy". I'm not declaring for one side or the other, but just wanted to throw it out there since this makes it seem like AA and tPtwP can be interchangeable. As always, since it's via HBO, take it with a grain of salt.

That's pretty interesting. I can't remember how Mel referred to Stannis. Did she call him specifically AA or tPtwP or both?

[Hamsa]

GiveMeSomeSnow, on 21 April 2012 - 10:46 PM, said:

That's pretty interesting. I can't remember how Mel referred to Stannis. Did she call him specifically AA or tPtwP or both?

During the burning of the seven Mel calls him AA:

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"In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him."

Really can't remember if and when she makes the switch to using the term tPtwP.

[Dacie]

Hmm that's interesting. If the show only viewers hear him called tPtwP in commentary only, they are gonna be like "who the heck is that?" Maybe a slip by GRRM?

Also, not to bring Dany up again, but I was wondering about her in relation to Bloodraven (who is evidently my new obsession):

He is pro-Targ through and through. Why has he not attempted to reach out to her? Distance? Lack of weirwoods in Essos? Doesn't care? You know he is aware of everything going on. Surely if he had heard his relative was hatching dragons he would have something to say or do about it?

[Dragonfish]

Apple Martini, on 21 April 2012 - 07:49 PM, said:

You're right, I know. Solution for me then is to just not reply in that case.

Well, as usual, now that I've cooled down I feel like a bit like a jerk for the harsh tone I took. So allow me to apologize for that.

GiveMeSomeSnow, on 21 April 2012 - 10:46 PM, said:

That's pretty interesting. I can't remember how Mel referred to Stannis. Did she call him specifically AA or tPtwP or both?

In ASOS, after Mel has Stannis present Lightbringer to Jon and co., Maester Aemon asks "but where is the prince who was promised?" Mel replies that Stannis is this prince, which implies that she considers the terms "Azor Ahai" and "prince who was promised" to be interchangeable.

[RevengeOfTheStarks]

GiveMeSomeSnow, on 21 April 2012 - 10:38 PM, said:

Oh i agree. I think this goes more in line with the "Starks will ally with the Others" theories which I don't really like.

I very much subscribe to this theory, though I can see why many readers wouldn't like it. It's not so much that the Starks will ally with the Others, as the possibility that the they already have, approximately 8000 years ago. If there's a war going on, called the Long Night, between two sides, one of which contains men, and that conflict ends, I don't see why it doesn't make sense that the two sides may have come to some agreement, which may boil down to an alliance. The agreement may have been sealed with a marriage, or a commitment to give sacrifices, or terms such as "if you stop doing this thing you're doing right now, we'll help you out in the future with your interests, but if you do this again we'll fuck you up."

[Apple Martini]

GiveMeSomeSnow, on 21 April 2012 - 11:06 PM, said:

He is pro-Targ through and through. Why has he not attempted to reach out to her? Distance? Lack of weirwoods in Essos? Doesn't care? You know he is aware of everything going on. Surely if he had heard his relative was hatching dragons he would have something to say or do about it?

I've wondered about this, too. If he knows about Dany or cares about her at all. Or if he knows about the prophecy in general or cares about it at all.

Speaking of Bloodraven, when he wargs the crow and says, "King! King!" to Jon, I think it's actually one of the strongest, though lesser referenced, clues that Aegon (supposedly an AA/PtwP candidate himself) is actually dead. Namely, Bloodraven would still have eyes in the capital to follow what was going on and could easily have been warging an animal (say, a certain black kitten?) the night of the Sack. I think he'd know if Aegon was switched, and if he wasn't. If he thought or knew that Aegon was still alive, he wouldn't call Jon "king." And I see no reason for Bloodraven not to know what really happened with Aegon. If he can know about Jon being the legitimate Targ king, he can know about that.

[tze]

Some thoughts on the salt/smoke issue:

If someone had a vision long ago and saw "salt and smoke" when AA is reborn, then perhaps the point is the colors, not the substances themselves, especially given that GRRM uses the word "smoke" as a color on several different occasions throughout ASOIAF and the prequel novellas. Salt is white, smoke is grey. This could refer to a child born of the House of Stark---the colors of "smoke and salt" have been their colors for thousands and thousands of years. (And while multiple Westerosi Houses can and do have the same colors---the Baratheons and the Greyjoys, for example---have we ever actually seen another House that shares the Stark colors?)

The image of AA being born out of something grey and something white could also refer to the battle at the TOJ. The grey direwolf (Ned Stark and his men) fought the Kingsguard, who bear banners of pure white.

Another thought: I at first assumed that the Wall was made out of fresh water. But when Bran passes through the Black Gate,

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The door's upper lip brushed softly against the top of Bran's head, and a drop of water fell on him and ran slowly down his nose. It was strangely
warm, and salty as a tear.

That, coupled with the multiple references to the Wall "weeping", seems to imply that the Wall is made of saltwater, not fresh water. If AA is to be reborn amidst/out of smoke and salt, it could simply be a reference to the Wall itself. If the Wall is constructed of saltwater, and manned by men dressed in black (for smoke can easily be black), then perhaps "will be reborn amidst smoke and salt" is a euphemism for "will be reborn amidst the Night's Watch at the Wall".

GiveMeSomeSnow, on 21 April 2012 - 11:06 PM, said:

Also, not to bring Dany up again, but I was wondering about her in relation to Bloodraven (who is evidently my new obsession):

He is pro-Targ through and through. Why has he not attempted to reach out to her? Distance? Lack of weirwoods in Essos? Doesn't care? You know he is aware of everything going on. Surely if he had heard his relative was hatching dragons he would have something to say or do about it?

But how sure are we that Bloodraven is still "all about the Targs"? The last time we "saw" him was way back in The Mystery Knight, almost a hundred years before the present day. Between then and now he's gone from occupying a position of Targ-centric authority (Hand of the King, bearing only the dragon sigil, dwelling in the South, etc.) to one completely divorced from Targaryen power and iconography (he's heavily associated with the Blackwood sigil---ravens and a weirwood tree, he's literally bonded with a weirwood tree deep beneath the earth in the frozen lands north of the Wall, and he's hanging with the Children of the Forest and representatives of ancient First Men families (Reed and Stark)). His power no longer derives from "Targ" sources, it derives from sources uniquely associated with the First Men and the Old Gods-based powers. The Targs frequently broke one of the few laws the Old Gods have (no incest!) and are associated with the consuming power of fire, which has been portrayed as the antithesis of Old Gods-based power. Like you say, he reaches out to Brandon Stark, not Daenerys Targaryen.

Basically, I think there's an excellent chance that Bloodraven's plans are not Targ-centric at all. He's clearly concerned with the Others, the Children, the Old Gods, the Watch, and the Starks---he's keeping an eye on events in the south, but his primary concerns do not appear to be with the petty squabbles going on around the Iron Throne (at least, that's not where we most heavily see his influence). Whatever plans he has for Jon, I really doubt they involve a restoration of Targ-based power, given that Jon, like Bloodraven in the present day, is heavy associated with the North and the First Men, not the Targs or Valyrian-based powers. And if his plans are to re-establish the powers of First Men (and given that greenseers seem to basically "be" the Old Gods, the restoration of Old Gods-based power seems like a likely goal for a greenseer), GRRM could be setting him up to conflict with the Targs, not as their beneficiary.