107 replies to this topic

[The Smiling Eye]

Right now, the young Targaryen's story is the most interesting to me. What do you think will happen to him? Varys explained that he was raised not to be a rotten ruler, or anything of the sort. I'm anxious to see what you all think of him and how likely his ascension to the throne will be?

[Jem]

First off, I have to say, that I believe that Aegon is a big fat fake.

I think that, for a short period of time, Aegon will be wildly successful. I think that he will take the throne but die very shortly thereafter.

Specifically how all of that will play out, I don't know. I do believe, though, that it will be hubris and self-entitlement that will be Aegon's eventual undoing.

[Apple Martini]

I think he's a Blackfyre pretender and that the real Aegon is dead. I think fake Aegon will make some impressive headway in Westeros and might even get to sit on the Iron Throne at some point. But in the end I think he'll end up dead, most likely in a conflict with his "aunt."

[IronSuitor]

Anyone who thinks Aegon is a Blackfyre has to explain why Varys bothered to lie to a dying Kevan Lannister. Unless he's just a method actor, or he was purposefully enjoying misleading the poor dude.

[Apple Martini]

IronSuitor, on 23 April 2012 - 08:19 PM, said:

Anyone who thinks Aegon is a Blackfyre has to explain why Varys bothered to lie to a dying Kevan Lannister. Unless he's just a method actor, or he was purposefully enjoying misleading the poor dude.

1. There were other people there, the little birds.
2. Why say anything at all?
3. Remember Littlefinger telling Sansa to uphold the lie even when you don't really need to?
4. Oh, and Varys never said that this Aegon was Rhaegar and Elia's Aegon.

Edited by Apple Martini, 23 April 2012 - 08:25 PM.

[Jem]

IronSuitor, on 23 April 2012 - 08:19 PM, said:

Anyone who thinks Aegon is a Blackfyre has to explain why Varys bothered to lie to a dying Kevan Lannister. Unless he's just a method actor, or he was purposefully enjoying misleading the poor dude.

I think that we have already done this at least one million times. If you disagree, then that is your prerogative, but don't say that this hasn't been explained.

Edited by Jem, 23 April 2012 - 08:27 PM.

[IronSuitor]

Apple Martini, on 23 April 2012 - 08:24 PM, said:

1. There were other people there, the little birds.
2. Why say anything at all?
3. Remember Littlefinger telling Sansa to uphold the lie even when you don't really need to?
4. Oh, and Varys never said that this Aegon was Rhaegar and Elia's Aegon.

2 is the biggest point either way. Why say anything if not the truth? Though the idea of Varys playing theater for his little birds is interesting.

[The Smiling Eye]

These are some interesting opinions. I too think that if he meets his aunt they're arguments will become volatile.

[Jem]

Re Varys's comments to Kevan, I've said this before and I will say it again...

Quote

If Varys had said...

"Aegon is alive. I rescued Rhaegar's real son and swapped him with a commoner's baby. Aegon never died and he has been living with in Essos all this time and now he is back to claim his throne"

OR

If Varys had said...

]"Me and my buddy Illyrio have faked up a kid who looks like dead baby Aegon. We've raised this kid for the last 15+ years to believe he is the real Aegon and now he is here to steal the crown"

...then we would have something to go on. If Varys had said either of those things then we could claim he was lying or telling the truth blah, blah, blah, and argue over it for the next half-dozen years or so.

]At the moment, Varys is telling the truth.. that Aegon is here...that Aegon was raised humbly but is well educated etc. All those things are true and we know it. No lies at all.

Why would Varys say anything at all? Because he wanted to kick Kevan in the pants as he died - sucked in Lannister, your little fat king's days are numbered, my king is better than yours. He wanted to gloat, he wanted some payoff after working in the shadows after all of these years. It makes sense to me.

Edited by Jem, 23 April 2012 - 08:41 PM.

[IronSuitor]

Ataraxia60, on 23 April 2012 - 08:36 PM, said:

These are some interesting opinions. I too think that if he meets his aunt they're arguments will become volatile.

Which is why I find the idea of him being legitimate, or at least Dany thinking he's legitimate, much more compelling. Finding out that she's not the rightful targ heir undermines Dany's very core.

[Apple Martini]

IronSuitor, on 23 April 2012 - 08:36 PM, said:

2 is the biggest point either way. Why say anything if not the truth? Though the idea of Varys playing theater for his little birds is interesting.

Like Jem said, this has already been gone over about a million times. If you're willing to overlook the frankly very large amount of evidence (both circumstantial and thematic) that Aegon is a fake just because of what Varys said to Kevan, that's your issue. But I can think of two definite lies that Varys told, independent of Aegon being real — that he knew what it was like to be hunted (no he didn't, because no one was ever looking for him), and that he was a dutiful, benevolent type (disputed in Tyrion's interaction with him, where he comes across like a spoiled little shit).

IronSuitor, on 23 April 2012 - 08:41 PM, said:

Which is why I find the idea of him being legitimate, or at least Dany thinking he's legitimate, much more compelling. Finding out that she's not the rightful targ heir undermines Dany's very core.

I do actually agree with this. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Dany fought and killed Aegon never knowing for sure if he was real or not.

Edited by Apple Martini, 23 April 2012 - 08:43 PM.

[Howling Mad]

IronSuitor, on 23 April 2012 - 08:36 PM, said:

2 is the biggest point either way. Why say anything if not the truth? Though the idea of Varys playing theater for his little birds is interesting.

Vary's gives his speech in order to progress the story for the readers, not for Kevan Lannister's benefit.

[Dacie]

I think Aegon is fake. However, I believe he and Jon Connington believe he's the real deal. I also think it won't matter much. He is gonna swoop in with his silver hair and indigo (?) eyes and army of sellswords and do some major damage.

The Lannister's rule is in shambles, the Tyrells are completely fickle and will turn the instant the Lannisters are no longer beneficial allies. A lot of houses are going to rally around the "Targaryen" savior. I think he'll sit the Iron Throne but he won't keep it.

[princeofnothing]

Could be dead wrong but...I DO think it's a real Egg. Makes perfect sense, and wouldn't be the first baby-switching. Would jon Connington have given up 14 years for a pretender? Who knows, but it doesn't seem so. Varys serves the realm; a Dragon-Realm preferably, it seems. I may be wrong, I may change my mind tomorrow, I may change my mind in five minutes. It is known.

[The Lost Lord]

Aegon and Dorne will take King's Landing in TWOW, and Aegon will become the wildly popular savior of Westeros. Then Dany will arrive, leading an army of dragons, Dothraki and ironborn, and deny the truth of the Mummer's Dragon's claim. She'll be correct that he's a Blackfyre but no one will believe her, and more importantly no one will want her around anyway, because she'll be bringing destruction and instability. They'll go to war in the Second Dance of the Dragons. It will not go well for Aegon.

What happens next is not so clear. Either (1) he dies immediately, or (2) he manages to retreat and go into hiding. I used to think Dany would kill him quickly, as Apple Martini suggests. More recently I started playing with the idea of, what if he gets away? If Dany drives Aegon and the Dornish forces out of the city, he can go underground in Dorne (which is impossible to conquer, even with dragons) and hide out there. He can bide his time while the magical characters destroy each other, and the dragons and Others wipe each other out. If Jon and Dany both die in some final battle, and magic recedes from the world again, Aegon can head right back to King's Landing and end the series ruling the realm with his queen Sansa Stark at his side.

[Apple Martini]

princeofnothing, on 23 April 2012 - 08:54 PM, said:

Could be dead wrong but...I DO think it's a real Egg. Makes perfect sense, and wouldn't be the first baby-switching. Would jon Connington have given up 14 years for a pretender? Who knows, but it doesn't seem so. Varys serves the realm; a Dragon-Realm preferably, it seems. I may be wrong, I may change my mind tomorrow, I may change my mind in five minutes. It is known.

Connington doesn't know the kid's a fake. He didn't meet him until he was like 4-5 years old. Varys is just as driven by factional loyalty as anyone else. Look at what he does, not what he says.

[Dacie]

princeofnothing, on 23 April 2012 - 08:54 PM, said:

Would jon Connington have given up 14 years for a pretender?

He doesn't know he's a pretender (IMO)

ETA: Apple beat me to it!

Edited by GiveMeSomeSnow, 23 April 2012 - 09:01 PM.

[Jem]

princeofnothing, on 23 April 2012 - 08:54 PM, said:

Could be dead wrong but...I DO think it's a real Egg. Makes perfect sense, and wouldn't be the first baby-switching. Would jon Connington have given up 14 years for a pretender? Who knows, but it doesn't seem so. Varys serves the realm; a Dragon-Realm preferably, it seems. I may be wrong, I may change my mind tomorrow, I may change my mind in five minutes. It is known.

Jon Connington didn't meet Aegon until the boy was 5 or 6 years of age, so he wouldn't necessarily know if he is the real deal or not. Besides, Jon has complicated emotional issues going on: love for Rhaegar, shame in letting him down re the Battle of the Bells, grief and guilt over Rhaegar's death. I would not classify Jon as a clear-headed and unbiased witness to whether or not Aegon is real. Jon needs Aegon to be real. Aegon is Jon's redemption.

And Varys was already serving a 'dragon-realm' when he served under Aerys. If all he wanted to do was to serve the Targaryens, why then did he go and undermine the Targ reign by fuelling Aerys's madness and making him paranoid towards Rheagar and Rhaella?

[thetitansbastard]

I agree Aegon and Dorne take the Iron Throne, and I like the idea of being challenged by Dany.   I might put my money on Aegon winning that war though with Dany ending up dead.

[houseHB]

O.K. I have to ask why wait 5 books to introduce the potential savior of Westeros? It would be like Tolkein waiting until the Return of the King to introduce Aragorn. Aegon is the red herring his name even makes me think of Aragorn. Although as people have said I think Aegon will take Kings landing in the next book and have total control by the end of it. Sorry to go off-track, but look how similar dany's and Jon's paths have been in the book. Dany's body guard was Jorah Morment, Jon Snow was Jeor Morment's steward. Most importantly why should anyone take what Vary's says at face value?