107 replies to this topic

[The Frosted King]

I was just reading the Robb stark reputation thread, and LLL and others iirc, said that the idea to conquer the north wasn't a bad one, for the Geyjoys.... Wat?

How does it not end up as a bad decision to make the only faction even remotely alright with your independence your bitter enemies, and then try to ally yourself with the Iron throne?

Did Balon not realize that no secession from the greater reallm would be tolerated by the iron throne?
Did he think that it was merely the direwolf on the independent banners that Tywin had issue with, but he'd be fine with a squid?

Did he think he could maintain a hold on lands with a troublesome stubborn population, and exceedlingly harsh conditions, while fighting the united south?

Did he believe his ships could fly?

[Apple Martini]

No one ever accused Balon Greyjoy of being the sharpest dagger in the armory.

[Frey Pie]

Scootydowop, on 25 April 2012 - 04:34 PM, said:

I was just reading the Robb stark reputation thread, and LLL and others iirc, said that the idea to conquer the north wasn't a bad one, for the Geyjoys.... Wat?

How does it not end up as a bad decision to make the only faction even remotely alright with your independence your bitter enemies, and then try to ally yourself with the Iron throne?

Did Balon not realize that no secession from the greater reallm would be tolerated by the iron throne?
Did he think that it was merely the direwolf on the independent banners that Tywin had issue with, but he'd be fine with a squid?

Did he think he could maintain a hold on lands with a troublesome stubborn population, and exceedlingly harsh conditions, while fighting the united south?

Did he believe his ships could fly?

Ha ha! Well i suppose the North was mostly undefende but no it wasnt a good strategy. Its right up their with Eurons decision to invade the Reach. Even population wise it was never feasible. The Iron Born didnt hold it for long and they only held it that long due to treachery by the Boltons

[Frey Pie]

Apple Martini, on 25 April 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

No one ever accused Balon Greyjoy of being the sharpest dagger in the armory.

Whats the opposite of Valyrian steel?

[Thunderfist]

Apple Martini, on 25 April 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

No one ever accused Balon Greyjoy of being the sharpest dagger in the armory.

Apple Martini summed it up. At least the Crows Eye had the sense to attack a warmer place with more loot.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Apple Martini, on 25 April 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

No one ever accused Balon Greyjoy of being the sharpest dagger in the armory.

I woudn't be surprised if he will go by the name balon the fool

[Castel]

It was better than attacking Lannisport, which Robb wanted him to do. It was basically fool's gold, a way to draw Tywin west without risking his men. It's right across from the impregnable Casterly Rock and pretty fucking big for an Ironborn army to hold, not to mention, it's owned by Tywin Lannister. When Robb goes back past Moat Cailin, he'll be on his own.

On the other hand, the North is more sparsely populated, armies are farther apart, and the bulk of their army is presumably trapped south and the important castles can be taken. He had a much better chance taking the North, or at least putting himself in a better bargaining position. He could basically take the Neck, wait for Tywin to deal with the Starks and deal with the remaining garrisons at his leisure. There are only a few castles in the North anyway, and all of them close to the sea. Hell, it was working until Balon died.

Worst case scenario, he is forced out of those castles and continues what is essentially a long reaving campaign.

Edited by Castel, 25 April 2012 - 04:51 PM.

[PrinceAdam]

Im guessing he thought it was undefended so easy to conquer and with the Northern army in the south it will be easy to hold.

Makes sense in the short term but sooner or later (if he didnt die) he was bound to lose it.

[Mr Stereo1]

To be honest, it would have been much, much, better strategy to sell his services to the Iron Throne in exchange for a few northern lordships. He attacks as per the original plan, but secures the coastal regions as best he can instead of running back to the iron islands. Then he uses the ships to move Lannister forces from the Westerlands to the North to cut into the northerners homeland. He won't get all of it, but he could conceivably get his brothers and either Theon or Asha a title and stronghold each.

Of course, he's insane, so I'm taking some liberties by assuming his goal is to expand his influence.

[PrinceAdam]

Mr Stereo1, on 25 April 2012 - 04:52 PM, said:

To be honest, it would have been much, much, better strategy to sell his services to the Iron Throne in exchange for a few northern lordships. He attacks as per the original plan, but secures the coastal regions as best he can instead of running back to the iron islands. Then he uses the ships to move Lannister forces from the Westerlands to the North to cut into the northerners homeland. He won't get all of it, but he could conceivably get his brothers and either Theon or Asha a title and stronghold each.

Of course, he's insane, so I'm taking some liberties by assuming his goal is to expand his influence.

I doubt he would have done this since he wanted to be King of the Iron Islands and doesnt like most of the people from the greenlands

[James Arryn]

As I've suggested many times, it wasn't necessarily doomed to fail if they'd kept their strategic aims limited, but those limited aims wouldn't have been worth doing.

IMO the absolute and obvious move was against the Lannisters, especially between the period when Robb's forces left the area and Raventree falls. Lannister ground forces tied up elsewhere and pretty generally depleted, naval forces easy prey for Ironfleet, much better in terms of logistics/support/resupply from the Iron Islands, and a whole lot more bang for the buck in terms of gains.

Whether they would have been able to keep the Westerlands is another point, but I think it would have been easier than keeping the North. A lot of Lannister power is derived from possession/control of the mines and Lannisport, and once the IB get a hold of those for any kind of period, loyalty to the lion might waver.

Or at least you might see something like the Banefort/Crag shelf and surrounding areas (and maybe Fair Isle) co-opted as a permanent and easily refortified IB foothold. Kinda like Normandy. ,

Coulda been done in alliance with North, or just in concurrence.


Edit: Another point of clarification. I think Theon's bold move to take Winterfell could have been a game changer if it had been properly supported/followed up. Viking/IB strategic control isn't limited to seacoasts. Rivers were their highways into continents...see Viking settlements into deep Russia, up French rivers, etc. I'm not entirely sure how accessible WF is by river, and that would be the crucial factor in deciding whether the right move after taking it would be destroy it or occupy it, but in any event if there was a chance there, they wasted it by just letting it rot on the vine.

I'm not convinced it would have worked, but it had a much higher chance of the juice being worth the squeeze than the plan they did carry out, imo.

Edited by James Arryn, 25 April 2012 - 05:12 PM.

[Hear Us Roar]

It was a good plan. Taking the coast and a few castles in land. It was successful. The north would bend to the Seasontone chair if they were the only military power. Tywin could have given Balon the deal he gave Bolton. Give Winterfell to Theon and have him marry Arya. It is possible to hold mainland, the iron men held the riverlands for centuries

[David Selig]

They are Iron Born, the word strategy is not in their vocabulary. Except for Asha, I guess she was switched at birth or something...

[Thunderfist]

Why would any sane person want the poorest and least populated region? And how did the Ironborn expect it to hold it through the Winter?

[DaveSumm]

I don't think Balon would claim to have taken the most strategic path, he took the path that left his pride intact. I imagine there were any number of better plans available to him, but if they involve even a hint of cooperation from outsiders then they go against his ethos. That's what the iron price is all about - if you see a crown on a Greyjoy's head, he must have taken it himself. Balon would be ashamed to wear a crown even slightly tainted with gold.

[The Frosted King]

I didn't want to retread previous ironborn northern invasion bashing threads, I wanted LittleFingers Lash and whoever else agreed to explain how invading a territory they could never keep was a sound minimax, mininum loss strategy for the ironborn.
Whether they lost it back to the Starks, or what exactly happened in ADWD where the ironthrone sends men to repel the ironmen, how was it a sound plan?

What Mr-Stereo1 suggests, is a sound plan.

Which likely explains why Balon didn't think of it.

Edited by Scootydowop, 25 April 2012 - 05:09 PM.

[The King in the South]

Well, he basically has three options.
1. Do what he did/join with someone else
2. Take Robb's offer
3. Sit out the war

Let's start with #2. Personally I see this as an awful idea. Attacking Lannisport would have been suicide, unless he solely meant to blockade it. Not only does this action put him at odds with the Lannisters, but it also sends a message to both Renly and Stannis that he is not going to submit to them. Even if Robb wins his part of the war, he is still not going after the Iron Throne, and thus somebody is going to end up on it. And do you think they would be very happy with the Greyjoys for going against them? None of these guys (there is no way Robb defeats all of the contenders; at best he defeats the Lannisters and secures the North's independence): Stannis, Joffrey, Renly seem very keen on the idea of independent kingdoms (and the Iron Islands are nowhere near as defensible as the North. They've already gotten fucked hard by the Throne once in the past fifteen years.), let alone allowing a major enemy to live.

Now, #3 very similar to #2, except it's more of a gamble. Maybe a "good" king wins and allows the Greyjoys to live; maybe a bad one wins and decides to wipe them out for not joining their "rightful" king. We see later on that this has sort of worked for Dorne and the Vale, but that is also in parts thanks to the structure of the war. If  the war had been short, then well, the victor would still have his/her armies and might have very well turned on the non-participating vassals. Again it depends on who wins.

Now back to #1. This one is too is a gamble, but it has substance to back it up. Had the Greyjoys held the North, they would have had an incredible bargaining chip, as well as a very good positioning. Even after the Blackwater, Tywin still considered the Greyjoy offer (Cersei+Balon) but we never got to see the result because Balon ended up dying by then. It's pretty un-conclusive; maybe Tywin tries to break the Greyjoys, maybe he grants them the North as long as they swear vassalship, maybe Tywin still ends up dying and no one is able to challenge the Ironborn, who knows? The plan fell apart when Balon died...but we don't call Renly stupid because he didn't forsee Melisandre's shadow. As for allying with other factions; by the time they joined the war Renly was dead, and I could hardly ever see Balon and Stannis ever working together.

First rebellion was idiotic though.

Edited by The King in the South, 25 April 2012 - 05:22 PM.

[Frey Pie]

The Greyjoys,Starks and Tullys together would have overthrown Tywin. These are three of the great houses essentially against one. Even when the Tyrells join it would be in the balance. Re-inforcements could easily have come down form the North.Iron born arent made for conquering in my opinion. But the westerlands was ripe for the picking if ever there was a time.

Also the North is by no means the least populace of the seven kingdoms Thunderfist

[Bright Blue Eyes]

It was the only sure way to lose big time. That's why he took it. The Ironborn saying is true: "Balon is mad, Aeron is madder and Euron maddest of all".

[Tumnas the Torpid]

It all depends on exactly how long and costly the concurrent war between the Baratheons for the Iron Throne would be.  If Joffrey, Stannis, and Renly (all three in play by the time of Balon's invasion) can be relied upon to bloody eachother to the extent that whoever won would be unable to challenge Balon's sovereignty over the Isles and North, then he gets to be the only man to come out of the war with two crowns.

But if the victor still has enough juice to press his claim to all Seven Kingdoms, then Balon's second rebellion ends like his first one.  High risk, high reward.

I have to say, however, that invading the North was probably more about Balon revenging himself on the ghost of Ned Stark than anything else.