107 replies to this topic

[Fire Eater]

Hear Us Roar, on 25 April 2012 - 04:55 PM, said:

It was a good plan. Taking the coast and a few castles in land. It was successful. The north would bend to the Seasontone chair if they were the only military power. Tywin could have given Balon the deal he gave Bolton. Give Winterfell to Theon and have him marry Arya. It is possible to hold mainland, the iron men held the riverlands for centuries

But there's a huge difference between the North and the Riverlands. The riverlands are a smaller area full of rivers (I know, you're gonna say "Well, duh"), and the Ironmen's ships can sail in even shallow rivers. All they had to do was move the longships from the sea to the rivers, which Vikings in the real world did, and perform blitzkriegs along the rivers moving from place to place quickly, making it difficult to for the Storm King to form a united front when the ironmen were everywhere. As Sun Tzu said the best general was the one who avoided battle.

The North, by comparison, is almost as large as the South and doesn't have as many rivers traversing the landscape. The ironmen would have to go on foot for the most part to travel through the North, and Asha notes that Ironmen lack the discipline to withstand an armored charge such as when Dagmer's shieldwall broke at Torrhen's Square.

Apple Martini, on 25 April 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

No one ever accused Balon Greyjoy of being the sharpest dagger in the armory.

Very true, even his favored heir, Asha, knew conquering the North was a fool's errand, knowing that Balon was blind in some respects.

Edited by Fire Eater, 25 April 2012 - 05:42 PM.

[Gurkhal]

Frey Pie, on 25 April 2012 - 05:24 PM, said:

The Greyjoys,Starks and Tullys together would have overthrown Tywin.

Yes probably. It would be hard to triumph against such numbers.

Frey Pie, on 25 April 2012 - 05:24 PM, said:

These are three of the great houses essentially against one. Even when the Tyrells join it would be in the balance. Re-inforcements could easily have come down form the North.Iron born arent made for conquering in my opinion. But the westerlands was ripe for the picking if ever there was a time.

Actually its three major Houses against four regions and effectively three major Houses. While Robb would have the Starks, Tullys and Greyjoys who no doubt would make a powerful force the Iron Throne would have the West, the Reach, most of the Stormlords and the Crownlands while the Martells plays is safe. Therefor I think it would be a great deal closer than you think and the Northmen already seem to be scarping the barrel in the Bolton-Stannis conflict while the Riverlands have been devestated by the conflict occuring there.

And I know that Manderly CLAIMS to have tens of thousands of soldiers just tucked away but I remain sceptical of his claims untill we actually see those men take to the field.

[Grumpy Midget]

As somebody somewhere pointed out, the Ironborn are basically GRRM's fantasy version of Vikings.  They are raiders, not conquerors.  And what does a raider do?  Attack the most vulnerable appearing target at the time.  Which in this case was the North.  And if the worst should happen.  They could always pack up them shiny loot onto them boats and sail home.

Plus, on the show version at least, Balon did hold a strong grudge against the Starks for the deaths of his first 2 sons.  So there's your revenge angle for ya.

Edited by Grumpy Midget, 25 April 2012 - 05:54 PM.

[Frey Pie]

Gurkhal, on 25 April 2012 - 05:47 PM, said:

Yes probably. It would be hard to triumph against such numbers.



Actually its three major Houses against four regions and effectively three major Houses. While Robb would have the Starks, Tullys and Greyjoys who no doubt would make a powerful force the Iron Throne would have the West, the Reach, most of the Stormlords and the Crownlands while the Martells plays is safe. Therefor I think it would be a great deal closer than you think and the Northmen already seem to be scarping the barrel in the Bolton-Stannis conflict while the Riverlands have been devestated by the conflict occuring there.

And I know that Manderly CLAIMS to have tens of thousands of soldiers just tucked away but I remain sceptical of his claims untill we actually see those men take to the field.

True and good point. But the Lannister,Crownlands and Stormland hosts have been badly blooded and all have suffered defeat

[MagnusPrime]

The reason why attacking the North's Western coast insteadf of Lannisport or the Reach initially is really simple....THE NORTH DID NOT HAVE A FREAKING WESTERN FLEET!!! How in the blue blazes does a Kingdom as huge as the North not have a Western fleet when they know that the Iron Born is based right off the coasts in prime position.

That is truly the gist of it the Reach has the Redwyne fleet, Lannisport has the Lannister fleet, and the North's western coast is just there. which makes no sense as having a western port the equal of White harbor would have meant more trade with the Westerlands, the Reach and any other trading partner that could be found.

[Castel]

Quote

Whether they would have been able to keep the Westerlands is another point, but I think it would have been easier than keeping the North. A lot of Lannister power is derived from possession/control of the mines and Lannisport, and once the IB get a hold of those for any kind of period, loyalty to the lion might waver.

For the sellswords maybe, the nobles and citizens will have a harder time accepting some salty pirate as their head or even the owner of Lannisport. All it takes is for someone , not necessarily even Tywin, to have some old claim on that area to start trouble.

[The King in the South]

Frey Pie, on 25 April 2012 - 05:52 PM, said:

True and good point. But the Lannister,Crownlands and Stormland hosts have been badly blooded and all have suffered defeat

At that point in time the Riverland had lost far more in terms of numbers.

[Ramsay Gimp]

It all rests on Moat Cailin. Balon failed to take the Crannogmen into account (can't really blame him there, since no one else but the Starks do either) and figured there would be no way for any army (Stark, Lannister, or Baratheon) to get North if he held that ancient fortress. Let the Wolves, Lions, and Stags, wear each other out while  in the meantime he basically takes easy pickings and fortifies his position.

The only way North other than the Moat is by sea, and Balon probably figures the Ironborn can take any comers in that department (even though history shows that isn't so).

Not to mention, with winter coming the Eastern lords of the North (Karstark, Bolton, Manderly) might not be able to launch a ground campaign to retake the Western castles

Edited by Ramsay Gimp, 25 April 2012 - 06:06 PM.

[James Arryn]

Gurkhal, on 25 April 2012 - 05:47 PM, said:

Yes probably. It would be hard to triumph against such numbers.



Actually its three major Houses against four regions and effectively three major Houses. While Robb would have the Starks, Tullys and Greyjoys who no doubt would make a powerful force the Iron Throne would have the West, the Reach, most of the Stormlords and the Crownlands while the Martells plays is safe. Therefor I think it would be a great deal closer than you think and the Northmen already seem to be scarping the barrel in the Bolton-Stannis conflict while the Riverlands have been devestated by the conflict occuring there.

And I know that Manderly CLAIMS to have tens of thousands of soldiers just tucked away but I remain sceptical of his claims untill we actually see those men take to the field.

If you're talking overall picture, the wildcard that always seems to be forgotten is the Vale.

It took a remarkably unusual set of circumstances to keep them pinned on the sidelines, and I don't think the wisest of commanders could have foreseen those playing out exactly as they did from the onset.

I still think they are the wildcard if/when full scare conflict renews.

[James Arryn]

Castel, on 25 April 2012 - 06:02 PM, said:

For the sellswords maybe, the nobles and citizens will have a harder time accepting some salty pirate as their head or even the owner of Lannisport. All it takes is for someone , not necessarily even Tywin, to have some old claim on that area to start trouble.

Don't think the citizens will care as much. As noted, the salty pirates have conquered and held mainland before. It's about strategic access, and the Western coast is well within their reach.

The Nobles are where it becomes more speculative, but in that Tywin has ruled more with fear and treasure than love and devotion, I think someone else who can wield the same reins while taking most of Tywin's from his hands would stand a good chance of yielding enough support to maintain. Its anything but a given, and as noted it may be that the best chance is a Normandy like compromise.

Certainly Tywin would have to do something significant....he could not fight a war on 2 or 3 fronts with any hope of success.

Edited by James Arryn, 25 April 2012 - 06:33 PM.

[Frey Pie]

The King in the South, on 25 April 2012 - 06:04 PM, said:

At that point in time the Riverland had lost far more in terms of numbers.

True but then again at least theyre in a position to reinforce their numbers from home which the Lannister host definately cant

[James Arryn]

Ramsay Gimp, on 25 April 2012 - 06:05 PM, said:

The only way North other than the Moat is by sea, and Balon probably figures the Ironborn can take any comers in that department (even though history shows that isn't so).

Only along the West coast, though, which is probably the biggest flaw in his plan.

The Starks were no threat on either coast, but the IB only had control of the West coast. People could end around him all day and there's not a thing he could do about it.

[Mr Motte]

MagnusPrime, on 25 April 2012 - 05:58 PM, said:

The reason why attacking the North's Western coast insteadf of Lannisport or the Reach initially is really simple....THE NORTH DID NOT HAVE A FREAKING WESTERN FLEET!!! How in the blue blazes does a Kingdom as huge as the North not have a Western fleet when they know that the Iron Born is based right off the coasts in prime position.

That is truly the gist of it the Reach has the Redwyne fleet, Lannisport has the Lannister fleet, and the North's western coast is just there. which makes no sense as having a western port the equal of White harbor would have meant more trade with the Westerlands, the Reach and any other trading partner that could be found.

If I recall correctly, I'm not sure the Lannisters rebuilt their fleet after the initial rebellion. And what would have stopped the Greyjoys from burning it at the anchor again. I doubt the Lannisters have near as powerful a fleet as the Greyjoys. And the Greyjoys are already hammering at the Reach, soon to deal with the Redwyne Fleet. Its probably not a good idea, but the Greyjoys as a whole dont seem that intelligent.

[Corvinus]

Yeah and his attack on the North is nothing compared with his attempted rebellion against Robert where his first move was to piss off the richest lord in Westeros.

[Winterfell is Burning]

There are two things that Balon could want:

1) Land- in that case, do what the Reader suggest.

2) Independence- In that case, he could join Robb.

Do what he did- attack the North after they offered an alliance, makes sure he doesn't get neither. If Robb himself doesn't crush his forces, whoever wins the Iron Throne eventually will, and whoever wants the Iron Throne has no reason to try to ally with him because:

a) He is untrustworthy- they are already saw him attack someone that offered an alliance to him, why would they do the same?

He is already doing what they want: fight the Starks.

And no one shows up to say to Balon he might have been acting stupid- the Ironborn are all ready to join the biggest responsible for the worst defeat in their history. Frankly, the whole Ironborn plot in ACOK seems a rare case in which GRRM decided that something needed to happen (Robb loses) and then made characters act accordingly rather than the story coming from natural progression. The most obvious example is an intelligent man like Luwin thinking he doesn't need one single soldier to defend Winterfell and two princes.

[Castel]

Honestly, if you look at the map of the North it seems that the IB had a good chance. Not to end up as rulers of the North like the Starks, but to carve out something for themselves or just fucking raid everywhere.There are like half-a-dozen  castles in the North, most of them close to sea. He could have taken and held them and if a Northern army that was too large came, Balon could simply have disappeared and went reaving along the coastline villages. They could make themselves a legitimate power, would they ever hold Winterfell or demand tribute? No. But they would have carved out a place and wealth for themselves.

His mistake was not trying to make common cause with the Lannisters,and ensuring that he had some support for his actions, surely some of the Northerners were going to be attainted, he could rightly claim their land.

Edited by Castel, 25 April 2012 - 07:09 PM.

[DornishKnight]

Thunderfist, on 25 April 2012 - 04:59 PM, said:

Why would any sane person want the poorest and least populated region? And how did the Ironborn expect it to hold it through the Winter?

First of all, that is the Iron Islands.  The second least populous and poor region (discounting the Crownlands and the current state of the Riverlands) is Dorne.
Second, they are Ironborn! Planning is for pussies!

Frey Pie, on 25 April 2012 - 04:40 PM, said:

Ha ha! Well i suppose the North was mostly undefende but no it wasnt a good strategy. Its right up their with Eurons decision to invade the Reach. Even population wise it was never feasible. The Iron Born didnt hold it for long and they only held it that long due to treachery by the Boltons

I suspect Euron knows more than he should, he is suspected to fiddle with dark magic after all.  Circumstances would indicate that he is attacking the Reach at the perfect time to rip the Tyrells to shreds.

[Monk Meth-]

balon was a fool... his first rebellion failed horribly and his attack on the north instead of the rock was insanely stupid and based purely off vengeance.

[Sweet-N-SourRobin]

It wasn't about strategy; it was personal.

Ned Stark killed two of his boys and kidnapped the third one (and gradually made him into something more painful to Balon than dead; a greenlander, a no-longer-Ironborn).  He was going to have his revenge on Ned Stark, even if Ned Stark was no longer alive to witness it.  Kill Ned's boy.  And that was Balon's unstated goal; plunder the north and terrorize the northerners until Robb Stark was forced by duty/honor/supply line concerns to come back North and protect his stuff/people, give battle to the ironborn, and they'd kill him. Take that, Ned Stark.

[The King in the South]

Monk Meth-, on 25 April 2012 - 07:20 PM, said:

balon was a fool... his first rebellion failed horribly and his attack on the north instead of the rock was insanely stupid and based purely off vengeance.

Yes, go ahead and explain to me how attacking a city of 200,000-300,000 is more intelligent than attacking an oppenent with something like 5k available men in a much weaker position.