107 replies to this topic

[Jamie Lannister]

So let's take a look at Lord (King) Balon Greyjoy's options for the War of the Five Kings:

1. Do nothing. Remain in the "king's peace" and do nothing to particularly incense either side.

Balon Greyjoy says: lolno

2. Ally with the new King in the North, and do what you do best against Lannisport. Increase your wealth and holdings by a considerable amount, while contributing to keeping the Seven Kingdoms divided -- thus paving an easier way to reviving the old way and reaving to your heart's content. It's secession, but it's secession against a surmountable enemy; the child king is besieged on all sides and one of the other kings has a more formidable army than him. Good move, eh?

Balon Greyjoy says: lolno

3. Ally with the Lannisters and attack the north. Quell King Robb's little rebellion and reap the benefits of having actively participated in keeping the king's peace.

Balon Greyjoy says: lolno

4. Secede from the king's peace by crowning yourself king... and then attack the north anyway, making enemies of everyone, and irrecoverably burning your bridges with perhaps the one person willing to tolerate you.

Balon Greyjoy says: Fucking genius.

...

I don't blame Tywin for saying "lolno" to the prospect of an alliance with this guy. If what "King Balon" pulled wasn't objective proof that Pyke needs to enjoy a dose of Castamere, I'm Azor Ahai reborn...

Edited by Jamie Lannister, 25 April 2012 - 07:37 PM.

[Castel]

James Arryn, on 25 April 2012 - 06:13 PM, said:

Don't think the citizens will care as much. As noted, the salty pirates have conquered and held mainland before. It's about strategic access, and the Western coast is well within their reach.

The Nobles are where it becomes more speculative, but in that Tywin has ruled more with fear and treasure than love and devotion, I think someone else who can wield the same reins while taking most of Tywin's from his hands would stand a good chance of yielding enough support to maintain. Its anything but a given, and as noted it may be that the best chance is a Normandy like compromise.

Certainly Tywin would have to do something significant....he could not fight a war on 2 or 3 fronts with any hope of success.

These Ironborn believe that rape and looting are their rights, doubt it would go over well in Lannisport, and the city is big, they better come with a big garrison. On top of that, there's Casterly Rock a stone's throw away. If they have any sort of garrison they could be a problem. It's not a good idea to try to defend the walls of a city when you can't trust the citizens at your back.

As for the nobles, I'm more worried about one of them pulling a Robert and going "Whaddaya know, I have Lannister blood, I'm the new Lord of Lannisport". That person will almost certainly not be Balon Greyjoy, who as I said, is given to thinking that rape and murder of the greenlanders is totally okay. And theon proved that people aren't that quick to forget.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Sweet-N-SourRobin, on 25 April 2012 - 07:25 PM, said:

It wasn't about strategy; it was personal.

Ned Stark killed two of his boys and kidnapped the third one (and gradually made him into something more painful to Balon than dead; a greenlander, a no-longer-Ironborn).  He was going to have his revenge on Ned Stark, even if Ned Stark was no longer alive to witness it.  Kill Ned's boy.  And that was Balon's unstated goal; plunder the north and terrorize the northerners until Robb Stark was forced by duty/honor/supply line concerns to come back North and protect his stuff/people, give battle to the ironborn, and they'd kill him. Take that, Ned Stark.

Ned had nothing to do with the death of his other sons. Robert and Stannis were as much responsible for the Ironborn's defeat as Ned was, and Balon didn't blamed them.

And it doesn't explain no one, even someone intelligent like Asha, thinking it was a bad idea. Again, GRRM wanted one thing (OK, two: get Bran and Rickon out of Winterfell) and made the characters act accordingly.

The King in the South, on 25 April 2012 - 07:25 PM, said:

Yes, go ahead and explain to me how attacking a city of 200,000-300,000 is more intelligent than attacking an oppenent with something like 5k available men in a much weaker position.

Well, first the North had much more men than 5k.

Second, a 300,000 population doesn't mean you have 300,000 soldiers- if they had 2% of it, it would be too much, considering it's war time, and most of the able-bodied men are away.

Third, Tywin has lost every battle he's fought at that point, and has no way of getting back to the Westerlands.

Four, at that point, every single side of the war has in common the fact they hate the Lannisters, he has no reason to believe they had a chance of winning, and at that stage they were losing every single battle.

[Monk Meth-]

The King in the South, on 25 April 2012 - 07:25 PM, said:

Yes, go ahead and explain to me how attacking a city of 200,000-300,000 is more intelligent than attacking an oppenent with something like 5k available men in a much weaker position.

Umm.. allies.. with 2 great houses WINNING the war? or no allies.. against a house that can beat you and take back the north easily anyway.

Edited by Monk Meth-, 25 April 2012 - 07:41 PM.

[The King in the South]

Monk Meth-, on 25 April 2012 - 07:40 PM, said:

Umm.. allies.. with 2 great houses WINNING the war? or no allies.. against a house that can beat you and take back the north easily anyway.

Winning the war is an interesting way of looking at things. As I seem to recall the tullys/starks were 1-2 in battles at that point, and there was still Stannis and Renly.

Easily take back the north? That must be why it took the combined forces of Ramsay+the Freys/Bolton several months to do it, and that was with 1/50 the garrison that the Greyjoys had prior.

Winterfell is Burning, on 25 April 2012 - 07:39 PM, said:

Ned had nothing to do with the death of his other sons. Robert and Stannis were as much responsible for the Ironborn's defeat as Ned was, and Balon didn't blamed them.

And it doesn't explain no one, even someone intelligent like Asha, thinking it was a bad idea. Again, GRRM wanted one thing (OK, two: get Bran and Rickon out of Winterfell) and made the characters act accordingly.



Well, first the North had much more men than 5k.

Second, a 300,000 population doesn't mean you have 300,000 soldiers- if they had 2% of it, it would be too much, considering it's war time, and most of the able-bodied men are away.

Third, Tywin has lost every battle he's fought at that point, and has no way of getting back to the Westerlands.

Four, at that point, every single side of the war has in common the fact they hate the Lannisters, he has no reason to believe they had a chance of winning, and at that stage they were losing every single battle.

In terms of armed forces in the north? No the count was probably roughly 5k mobilized. (Rodrik, Bolton, various holdings, etc) Perhaps the North could have conjured up more men, but by then the Greyjoys would have taken over.
Never said it was, but it still has a sizable chunk of men as well as instant mobilization, a fleet, defensive positioning, etc. All things the north lacked.
Tywin has not lost a battle yet, what are you talking about? Jaime =/= Tywin. That's probably why a lot of people were apprehensive about Robb's skill. At that point in time all he had done was attacked the Riverrun encampment, which wasn't even half of the Lannister army.
They had lost one battle, not every battle. And besides, the Riverlands had been hit hard, Bolton had been forced to retreat, etc. Robb Stark had 5-6k men. Bolton, maybe 15k. Tywin still had over 20k. It was hardly close to being over.

edit: For the record, I'm not necessarily saying it was a super duper amazing plan, just that it was by no way "stupider" than attacking Lannisport would be

Edited by The King in the South, 25 April 2012 - 08:04 PM.

[chris999]

It is a good strategy, because he doesnt have a large powerful army. He can use his smaller numbers effectively to hold Moat Cailin in the neck, which is almost impossible to attack. This means that not only does he attack the North, but he has an easier time keeping it too. It is a much better plan than Theon and Robbs plan of attacking Casterly Rock, and then dying when the Lannisters come to take it back.

[MagnusPrime]

The King in the South, on 25 April 2012 - 07:50 PM, said:

Winning the war is an interesting way of looking at things. As I seem to recall the tullys/starks were 1-2 in battles at that point, and there was still Stannis and Renly.

Easily take back the north? That must be why it took the combined forces of Ramsay+the Freys/Bolton several months to do it, and that was with 1/50 the garrison that the Greyjoys had prior.



In terms of armed forces in the north? No the count was probably roughly 5k mobilized. (Rodrik, Bolton, various holdings, etc) Perhaps the North could have conjured up more men, but by then the Greyjoys would have taken over.
Never said it was, but it still has a sizable chunk of men as well as instant mobilization, a fleet, defensive positioning, etc. All things the north lacked.
Tywin has not lost a battle yet, what are you talking about? Jaime =/= Tywin. That's probably why a lot of people were apprehensive about Robb's skill. At that point in time all he had done was attacked the Riverrun encampment, which wasn't even half of the Lannister army.
They had lost one battle, not every battle. And besides, the Riverlands had been hit hard, Bolton had been forced to retreat, etc. Robb Stark had 5-6k men. Bolton, maybe 15k. Tywin still had over 20k. It was hardly close to being over.

edit: For the record, I'm not necessarily saying it was a super duper amazing plan, just that it was by no way "stupider" than attacking Lannisport would be

which doesn't make much sense seeing that land near the coasts would be prime real estate and therefore require security! how does the north not have a western fleet, trading port, and garrison what with three potential enemies with fleets on that coast?

GRRM dealt the North a bad hand in order to advance the story.

[Castel]

MagnusPrime, on 25 April 2012 - 08:11 PM, said:

which doesn't make much sense seeing that land near the coasts would be prime real estate and therefore require security! how does the north not have a western fleet, trading port, and garrison what with three potential enemies with fleets on that coast?

GRRM dealt the North a bad hand in order to advance the story.

They did, and someone burned it if I recall. And apparently it just wasn't worth it to try to get a new one. They are on the far side of the continent, away from Essos and possible raiders from that side and the Iron Born had been quiet for a while until Balon unless I'm mistaken.

[Barty]

The King in the South, on 25 April 2012 - 07:50 PM, said:

Winning the war is an interesting way of looking at things. As I seem to recall the tullys/starks were 1-2 in battles at that point, and there was still Stannis and Renly.

Easily take back the north? That must be why it took the combined forces of Ramsay+the Freys/Bolton several months to do it, and that was with 1/50 the garrison that the Greyjoys had prior.



In terms of armed forces in the north? No the count was probably roughly 5k mobilized. (Rodrik, Bolton, various holdings, etc) Perhaps the North could have conjured up more men, but by then the Greyjoys would have taken over.
Never said it was, but it still has a sizable chunk of men as well as instant mobilization, a fleet, defensive positioning, etc. All things the north lacked.
Tywin has not lost a battle yet, what are you talking about? Jaime =/= Tywin. That's probably why a lot of people were apprehensive about Robb's skill. At that point in time all he had done was attacked the Riverrun encampment, which wasn't even half of the Lannister army.
They had lost one battle, not every battle. And besides, the Riverlands had been hit hard, Bolton had been forced to retreat, etc. Robb Stark had 5-6k men. Bolton, maybe 15k. Tywin still had over 20k. It was hardly close to being over.

edit: For the record, I'm not necessarily saying it was a super duper amazing plan, just that it was by no way "stupider" than attacking Lannisport would be

You are forgetting the Tully host of around 11-12k which edmure mobilized to stop Tywin.

[Barty]

Balon was afraid of Tywin's reputation - he tells Theon that they could take Casterly Rock but they would never be able to hold it. He didnt realize that once Casterly rock falls, the lannister chances of winning the war were over. How exactly would Tywin take back casterly rock?? he had only 20k men and he would have had to traverse enemy territory, beat edmure, then beat robb and bolton and then hope he has enough men left to take one of the strongest fortresses in the realm. As we see he cannot even beat Edmure at the stone mill so forget defeating the rest. And in this situation why would the tyrells even join him?? KL was under siege, about to fall, Casterly rock and all the westerlands taken, 2/3 lannister armies destroyed, jaime lannister captured, Tywin lannister himself defeated at the stone mill - why would the tyrells join a lost cause and not just join the winning side by allying with Stannis?

[Frey Pie]

Look its pretty simple. The Iron Born could take Lannisport. There are6000goldcloaks in KL,2000normally. KL is far larger then Lannisport. Stannis was going to take it before Mace/Tywin and crew turned up. He had20-25000men? How many do you think were in Lannisport? Oxcross had the sweepings of Lannisport. Ill be fair and put2000soldiers in there,500-1000having any experience. Balon leaves 3-4000men outside Lannisport. Blockade it form the sea. Then take the rest of your men and reave reave reave. That should be his plan if hes even romotely smart

[Gurkhal]

Frey Pie, on 26 April 2012 - 04:39 AM, said:

Look its pretty simple. The Iron Born could take Lannisport. There are6000goldcloaks in KL,2000normally. KL is far larger then Lannisport. Stannis was going to take it before Mace/Tywin and crew turned up. He had20-25000men? How many do you think were in Lannisport? Oxcross had the sweepings of Lannisport. Ill be fair and put2000soldiers in there,500-1000having any experience. Balon leaves 3-4000men outside Lannisport. Blockade it form the sea. Then take the rest of your men and reave reave reave. That should be his plan if hes even romotely smart

Yep, but then he would facce destruction as just like the Northern lords rejects Balon's claim to lordship so would the lords of the West reject the Greyjoys and when things settled down, which it would sooner or later, it would only be a question of time before the Westermen would drive off the Ironborn from the mainland. Hence the Ironborn could never hope to hold any seizable territory on the mainland due to their dependency on their ships and the fact that they have no heavy cavalry of their own.

Now what I think that Balon should have done is that I think that he should've have accepted that the time for petty kingdoms in Westeros is over. The best part would probably be to strike a deal with the Iron Throne to attack the Northmen, escpecially after the Blackwater, at which point he could perhaps be able to bring in the Greyjoys from the marginal and make them a bit more influential in the realm.

Edited by Gurkhal, 26 April 2012 - 05:08 AM.

[Frey Pie]

Gurkhal, on 26 April 2012 - 04:51 AM, said:

Yep, but then he would fact destruction as just like the Northern lords rejects Balon's claim to lordship so would the lords of the West reject the Greyjoys and when things settled down, which it would sooner or later, it would only be a question of time before the Westermen would drive off the Ironborn from the mainland. Hence the Ironborn could never hope to hold any seizable territory on the mainland due to their dependency on their ships and the fact that they have no heavy cavalry of their own.

Now what I think that Balon should have done is that I think that he should've have accepted that the time for petty kingdoms in Westeros is over. The best part would probably be to strike a deal with the Iron Throne to attack the Northmen, escpecially after the Blackwater, at which point he could perhaps be able to bring in the Greyjoys from the marginal and make them a bit more influential in the realm.

Yes that would be the sensible action. Then and only then was it feasible to attck the North. However, this would only be done after the Blacwater. Before the Renly/Stannis thing the Lannisters were in the worst position

[Ice Turtle]

Frey Pie, on 26 April 2012 - 04:54 AM, said:

Yes that would be the sensible action. Then and only then was it feasible to attck the North. However, this would only be done after the Blacwater. Before the Renly/Stannis thing the Lannisters were in the worst position

Lol it seems that Stannis won Tywin the war.

[Castel]

Barty, on 26 April 2012 - 12:48 AM, said:

Balon was afraid of Tywin's reputation - he tells Theon that they could take Casterly Rock but they would never be able to hold it. He didnt realize that once Casterly rock falls, the lannister chances of winning the war were over. How exactly would Tywin take back casterly rock?? he had only 20k men and he would have had to traverse enemy territory, beat edmure, then beat robb and bolton and then hope he has enough men left to take one of the strongest fortresses in the realm. As we see he cannot even beat Edmure at the stone mill so forget defeating the rest. And in this situation why would the tyrells even join him?? KL was under siege, about to fall, Casterly rock and all the westerlands taken, 2/3 lannister armies destroyed, jaime lannister captured, Tywin lannister himself defeated at the stone mill - why would the tyrells join a lost cause and not just join the winning side by allying with Stannis?

This is assuming that he could take Casterly Rock in the first place.

And like I said, it doesn't need to be Tywin, any westerman with Lannister blood can claim that Lannisport or Casterly Rock are his and attack and I doubt anyone is going to stand with the Ironborn against him. The west is pretty densely populated compared to the North and easier to mobilize, he would have a hard time keeping a hold on those place,while in the North he held three/four out of perhaps eight castles total with little problem initially.

ETA:Also to add, the rest of the castles were on the far side of the North with only Winterfell somewhere around the center.

Edited by Castel, 26 April 2012 - 07:06 AM.

[Gurkhal]

Castel, on 26 April 2012 - 06:43 AM, said:

This is assuming that he could take Casterly Rock in the first place.

And like I said, it doesn't need to be Tywin, any westerman with Lannister blood can claim that Lannisport or Casterly Rock are his and attack and I doubt anyone is going to stand with the Ironborn against him. The west is pretty densely populated compared to the North and easier to mobilize, he would have a hard time keeping a hold on those place,while in the North he held three/four out of perhaps eight castles total with little problem initially.

I agree entirely. The Westermen will not kindly accept Ironborn dominance and unlike the Ironborn the Westermen do have heavy cavalry.

[AvengerofWinterfell]

Gurkhal, on 25 April 2012 - 05:47 PM, said:

Yes probably. It would be hard to triumph against such numbers.



Actually its three major Houses against four regions and effectively three major Houses. While Robb would have the Starks, Tullys and Greyjoys who no doubt would make a powerful force the Iron Throne would have the West, the Reach, most of the Stormlords and the Crownlands while the Martells plays is safe. Therefor I think it would be a great deal closer than you think and the Northmen already seem to be scarping the barrel in the Bolton-Stannis conflict while the Riverlands have been devestated by the conflict occuring there.

And I know that Manderly CLAIMS to have tens of thousands of soldiers just tucked away but I remain sceptical of his claims untill we actually see those men take to the field.

Pretty sure they (Starks & co. could've gotten Dorne to ride with them as well seeing as how they have a DEEP seated hatred for the Lannisters.  Not to mention, Dorne is practically impossible to put under siege as Aegon I found out, so they wouldnt have to worry about reprisal unless they lost.

[Lord Damian]

Balon felt that the Northern forces were all south of the neck, therefore could not come back through Moat Cailin and defeat him. He could hold out and force a suit for peace. Balon was a fool.

[Gurkhal]

AvengerofWinterfell, on 26 April 2012 - 07:36 AM, said:

Pretty sure they (Starks & co. could've gotten Dorne to ride with them as well seeing as how they have a DEEP seated hatred for the Lannisters.  Not to mention, Dorne is practically impossible to put under siege as Aegon I found out, so they wouldnt have to worry about reprisal unless they lost.

...BUT what they actually did was to throw in with the Lannisters and form a marriage alliance with Robert's supposed offspring. I don't think that Dorne has any positive suprises to show the offspring to the rebels that dethroned the Targaryens.

[jarl the climber]

Gurkhal, on 26 April 2012 - 08:13 AM, said:

...BUT what they actually did was to throw in with the Lannisters and form a marriage alliance with Robert's supposed offspring. I don't think that Dorne has any positive suprises to show the offspring to the rebels that dethroned the Targaryens.

The Martells allied themselves with the Lannisters so they could try to destroy them from within. At this point he marriage between Myrcella and Trystane is probaly off. Oberyn said that Sansa would have been welcome in Dorne if she came with Tyrion.