62 replies to this topic

[Dr. Pepper]

bloodymime, on 30 April 2012 - 04:30 PM, said:

I'm not sure how I can explain myself any clearer here. You can confront a person without attacking a person by punching them in the face. Bolton can confront Tywin's army by coming within striking distance yet still not chance direct attack against an enemy he can't overcome. Turn it around, why doesn't Robb say attack instead of confront? Because Bolton does have to be a threat to Lannister so he can't stay at the Twins. He has to come face to face, or confront, Tywin's army but that doesn't mean engaging in a direct attack where once you're stuck in it you can't predict what will happen.

You're missing the entire point of Robb's plan with regards to the Green Fork battle because you are confused about the meaning of one single word.  Instead of trying to understand what a military confrontation means, ignore that word you do not understand and focus on the entire conversation Robb has with Catelyn about his plans.

Here is a simple breakdown of Robb's plan:

• Take on Jaime's forces to break the seige of Riverrun.
  
• Keep Tywin distracted and engaged long enough to ensure he doesn't have the chance to come to Jaime's aid.

They cannot employ sneaky methods like striking the camp at night or catching Tywin unaware because Tywin's army is just too large and it's impossible to apprehend every single spy/scout Tywin would send out.  The can't smash Tywin's army.  The only hope Robb has is to sacrifice a small part of his army in order to keep Tywin distracted and engaged long enough to allow Robb to reach and defeat Jaime's part of the Lannister force. You don't keep an army distracted by sitting within seeing distance of them.  Doing that puts a commander on high alert because it indicates that you are employing a sneaky plot.  Keep in mind that Tywin thinks Robb is a greenboy who doesn't have the experience to make cunning battle schemes.  It's to Robb's advantage to allow Tywin to keep thinking this for a while longer.

The Greatjon is too fearless to accomplish this type of scheme.  He would go in swords-a-blazing and lose the entire part of that force.  He wouldn't be able to coldly choose the small part of the force to be committed to sure death and/or captivity.  The Greatjon may be fearless and not too clever, but he's still a vital part of Robb's war council and care should be taken to keep him there.  So in comes Roose because he's cold and clever and calculating.


Roose does exactly as Robb planned and commanded.  Roose chose the men to send in who would surely die or be taken hostage.  That takes a highly cold and calculating person.  We don't have the conversation that happened between Roose and Robb before he was sent off, but it's nearly certain that they discussed which part of the force Roose would send to death and hostage and, considering Roose's calculating nature, he surely advised Robb on who he should send in for the slaughter and also surely made certain that he could advise Robb to agree that none of Roose's Dreadfort men are lost.

Again, Roose does exactly as planned.  He engaged (in other words, confronted) Twyin's forces just long enough to keep him distracted and he coldly chose who would be sent to death before retreat.

[bloodymime]

Dr. Pepper, on 30 April 2012 - 07:59 PM, said:

he surely advised Robb on who he should send in for the slaughter and also surely made certain that he could advise Robb to agree that none of Roose's Dreadfort men are lost.

I'm not going to keep repeating myself but I am curious, you actually think Bolton told Robb straight to his face that none of his men would be sharing the danger of his fellow comrades. Robb Stark who for better or worse has been shown as leading from the front and gives himself the more dangerous command without hesitation because he won't ask his men to do something he won't?

[Jon Flowers]

It is a possibility that Roose was in colusion with Tywin regarding what shape the battle at Greenfork would take.  It was Tywin's plan to allow the Northerners to drive back his van, allowing him to then trap them against the river.  He was not happy when Tyrion's men held and ruined his plan.  We shouldn't forget though that Bolton obliged Tywin and attacked strongly along the river just as he had hoped.  I could very well be that the whole thing was orchestrated between the two of them in advance and was only spoiled by Tywin trying to have Tyrion conveniently killed as well.  It's just an idea I had, I'm not completely sure but it is very possible.

Edited by Jon Flowers, 30 April 2012 - 08:16 PM.

[Mumatil]

Lord Bolton is a cruel and practical man.

He likes to keep his options open and make sure hes not in a weak spot and on the winning side.  I'm sure if Rob had made the right calls Lord Bolton would have gone along with it(but still making insurances if something were to happen to his side), but since rob messed it up with that Westerling, that's when he decided to switch.

He's an opportunist.

Edited by Mumatil, 30 April 2012 - 08:27 PM.

[Dr. Pepper]

bloodymime, on 30 April 2012 - 08:11 PM, said:

I'm not going to keep repeating myself but I am curious, you actually think Bolton told Robb straight to his face that none of his men would be sharing the danger of his fellow comrades. Robb Stark who for better or worse has been shown as leading from the front and gives himself the more dangerous command without hesitation because he won't ask his men to do something he won't?

Yes, my comment above was unclear.  No, I'm not saying that Bolton said, "Look King Robb, I'll carry out this plan for you but only if I don't have any of my men lost in battle."

Roose was part of Robb's war council.  One of Robb's greatest strengths is that he acknowledged the wisdom his advisors brought to the table.  I'm saying that Roose likely advised Robb on who they could most afford to lose in this feint attack against Tywin.  And it's what the whole plan was; a feint attack to distract Tywin.

The TV show actually does a very good of illustrating the basics of the plan.

[bloodymime]

One last question. We don't know what the timeline is for the battle. They attack in the morning with no time reference after that I can find. We only know that Tyrion heads straight for the tents, finds his father there and complains about being used as bait. Minutes later Marbrand comes in with information on lords captured and questioned who give up the information on Robb's plan to make for Riverrun.

All of this, definitely without doubt I don't think there can be any argument here, happening within the same day yes? After that it becomes guessing, from the narrative it seems to be over quickly but time in battle feels much faster than time watching the clock so that's not reliable, there's no mention of darkness or lit torches when Tyrion goes back to the tents so while I feel comfortable guessing it's nowhere near dark I admit it is just speculation.

So the battle starts in the morning and ends apparantly well before dark as there is still light to see with lords being taken and telling the Lannisters exactly what Robb is doing. So Tywin has defeated the Northerners and learned exactly what Robbs plan is in what, can we say, within twelve hours of first contact instead of thinking Robb's army was still a day's march away as they thought before Bolton showed up? But now I'm getting sidetracked wondering if Boltons supposed diversionary attack to distract Lannister didn't actually give Tywin Robb's exact plan long before he would have had it otherwise.

Nevermind, can we say a maximum of twelve hours before the Northerners are retreating and leaving no army at Lannisters rear to worry about if he should march? I'm going to go with the assumption that people will agree that twelve hours is enough time to account for the battle and Tyrion coming back to the camp with Mardbrand coming in to give Twyin Robb's plan that he learns from captured lords.

So the people saying that Bolton did the only thing he could are saying that maximum of twelve hours before they learn Robb's exact plans straight from the mouths of his own men, without having to guess or wonder or be suspicious of where he might be, those twelve hours are all the difference in Tywin not being able to send mounted messengers or ravens that might make it through the Blackfish's screens of scouts in time to find and warn Jaime? And furthermore that there's no other possible way of gaining that maximum of twelve hours of distraction besides Bolton marching the Northerners straight into Lannister's wheelhouse? I'm not going to bother with talk of Tywin going to Jaime's aid himself because you can at least surely agree that he can't turn his army around and try to cross a river with a Northern army threatening his rear.

Christ, what a mess, I'm all over the place. Nevermind. I've now convinced myself that not only did Bolton send men into pointless battle but that he did in fact make sure that Lannister was made aware of Robb's plans long before he would have known otherwise.

[Dr. Pepper]

bloodymime, on 30 April 2012 - 10:16 PM, said:

Christ, what a mess, I'm all over the place. Nevermind. I've now convinced myself that not only did Bolton send men into pointless battle but that he did in fact make sure that Lannister was made aware of Robb's plans long before he would have known otherwise.

The battle wasn't pointless.  It served to allow Robb to defeat Jaime at the Whispering Wood.  If Bolton made Tywin aware of Robb's plan, Tywin would have had the opportunity to leave before Bolton even arrived to assist Jaime.  Bolton and Robb kept Tywin right where they wanted him.  Yes, in order to do that, they had to be willing to knowingly sacrifice a small part of their force, but even the sacrifice had a point.

The timelines of the entire series is tricky because GRRM rarely offers definitive timeline hints and there are no scales on his maps.  The actual fighting at the Battle of the Green Fork might have happened in a day, yes.  But there are other things to consider such as having to spend the time to calculate losses (to both forces), attending to the injured, reforming the lines, analyzing any intelligence that may have come in, etc.  This type of stuff doesn't happen all in one day.

The environment, technology available and telling of the story requires the reader to acknowledge and accept that there are days and weeks and sometimes months between one POV at one location to another POV at the same location.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Roose did everything he was supposed to at the Green Fork. Neither Robb or Catelyn object to what he does. If the plan is stupid, bloodymime, blame them.

He turns cloak after Winterfell and the Blackwater. Remember his convo with Jaime in ASOS? "the Blackwater changed all..."

[bloodymime]

Dr. Pepper, on 30 April 2012 - 10:35 PM, said:

The battle wasn't pointless.  It served to allow Robb to defeat Jaime at the Whispering Wood.  If Bolton made Tywin aware of Robb's plan, Tywin would have had the opportunity to leave before Bolton even arrived to assist Jaime.  Bolton and Robb kept Tywin right where they wanted him.  Yes, in order to do that, they had to be willing to knowingly sacrifice a small part of their force, but even the sacrifice had a point.

The timelines of the entire series is tricky because GRRM rarely offers definitive timeline hints and there are no scales on his maps.  The actual fighting at the Battle of the Green Fork might have happened in a day, yes.  But there are other things to consider such as having to spend the time to calculate losses (to both forces), attending to the injured, reforming the lines, analyzing any intelligence that may have come in, etc.  This type of stuff doesn't happen all in one day.

The environment, technology available and telling of the story requires the reader to acknowledge and accept that there are days and weeks and sometimes months between one POV at one location to another POV at the same location.

I agree completely, Tywin can't pick up his walky talky and say 'breaker breaker say goodbuddy Kingslayer I just learned straight from the horses mouth that Robb's on his way towards you. Over and out.' He'd have to send messengers on horse and ravens to try to get through the Blackfish's men.

The Lannisters latest information is that Robb is a days march away. It sounds like you're agreeing that twelve hours is at least the maximum amount of time for this battle so instead of thinking he's still a day's march away Bolton's forced march and attack means within twelve hours at the very latest Lannister suddenly has exact information on Robbs plan and destination. That is a great diversion that buys much needed time indeed.

[bloodymime]

Ramsay Gimp, on 30 April 2012 - 10:40 PM, said:

Roose did everything he was supposed to at the Green Fork. Neither Robb or Catelyn object to what he does. If the plan is stupid, bloodymime, blame them.

He turns cloak after Winterfell and the Blackwater. Remember his convo with Jaime in ASOS? "the Blackwater changed all..."

Yep I agree. Robb is pretty hit and miss at delegating with Theon and Bolton.

[Ser Hippie]

bloodymime, on 30 April 2012 - 10:46 PM, said:

The Lannisters latest information is that Robb is a days march away. It sounds like you're agreeing that twelve hours is at least the maximum amount of time for this battle so instead of thinking he's still a day's march away Bolton's forced march and attack means within twelve hours at the very latest Lannister suddenly has exact information on Robbs plan and destination. That is a great diversion that buys much needed time indeed.

Pretty much this. Tywin doesn't realize Robb has split his forces, so he's assuming that Robb is marching with his entire force towards the Green Fork. Roose's job is to keep Tywin busy enough that he doesn't notice that basically all the northern cavalry isn't present and has in fact crossed elsewhere and on the way to relieve Riverrun, which Roose accomplishes. If Tywin realizes Robb has split his forces, it's pretty obvious where he's going (towards Riverrun/the other Lannister armies), so Roose has to put up enough of a fight that Tywin falls into Robb's trap.

The distinction Cat/Robb make when deciding who to lead the army at the Green Fork is that the Greatjon would try too hardto win the battle, regardless of cost, while Roose would be cagier (which he is, as he doesn't fall for Tywin's trap and draws the Lannister army towards his before withdrawing). The Greatjon would still would have probably accomplished their strategic goal, but at a far higher cost.

Granted, it wasn't "nice" of Roose to place other houses' troops on the front line but you can't begrudge a flayed man everything can you?

[bloodymime]

Ser Hippie, on 30 April 2012 - 11:06 PM, said:

Pretty much this. Tywin doesn't realize Robb has split his forces, so he's assuming that Robb is marching with his entire force towards the Green Fork. Roose's job is to keep Tywin busy enough that he doesn't notice that basically all the northern cavalry isn't present and has in fact crossed elsewhere and on the way to relieve Riverrun, which Roose accomplishes. If Tywin realizes Robb has split his forces, it's pretty obvious where he's going (towards Riverrun/the other Lannister armies), so Roose has to put up enough of a fight that Tywin falls into Robb's trap.

The distinction Cat/Robb make when deciding who to lead the army at the Green Fork is that the Greatjon would try too hardto win the battle, regardless of cost, while Roose would be cagier (which he is, as he doesn't fall for Tywin's trap and draws the Lannister army towards his before withdrawing). The Greatjon would still would have probably accomplished their strategic goal, but at a far higher cost.

Granted, it wasn't "nice" of Roose to place other houses' troops on the front line but you can't begrudge a flayed man everything can you?

Right. Tyrion thinks to himself that the latest information is that Robb is a day's march away. They begin the battle believing Robb is on the other side so clearly no scouts have come in night to report anything different.

For all this talk of how quickly the Lannisters would pick up on the fact that Robb has split his forces the fact that they don't realize it while they're staring at his army directly across the battlefield when they might just have the slightest personal interest in closely studying the makeup of the oppossing force suggests otherwise. They're not caught napping, they have more than enough time to form up exactly as Tywin wants and he's on a hill himself overlooking the battlefield yet nobody knows the Young Wolf and like you said, basically all the northern cavalry,  aren't there until after the battle and captured northern lords literally tell them with their own mouths. Perhaps banners are just easier to make out across a field than a lack of horses.


Bolton takes advantage of his command to clear the field a bit of his fellow lords. The only thing his attack accomplishes besides wasting mens lives is informing the Lannisters of Robb's plans at the very least hours before they would have known otherwise.

[Ser Hippie]

bloodymime, on 01 May 2012 - 12:51 AM, said:

The only thing his attack accomplishes besides wasting mens lives is informing the Lannisters of Robb's plans at the very least hours before they would have known otherwise.

This doesn't make any sense. They don't know Robb/the cavalry aren't there, Tywin specifically asks "What about the boy?" after the battle is over.

Tywin/the Lannisters assume Robb is marching on them with all his strength.They still believe it until after the battle when they realize they were completely fooled, and Roose did it with fewer casualties than someone like the Greatjon would have.

Also, if Roose's attack is so pointless why doesn't anyone call him on it? Tywin/Tyrion realize they've been hoodwinked and nobody on the Stark side says a word. You'd think a pointless waste of men that "informed the Lannisters of Robb's plans hours early" would warrant comment from someone wouldn't you? And why would Roose keep his command?

I'm really not sure why you see the Green Fork as proof of Roose's incompetence or treachery.

Edited by Ser Hippie, 01 May 2012 - 09:01 AM.

[bloodymime]

Exactly, it makes no sense. Thank you. We're supposed to think the Lannisters have such detailed intel on the Northern army that the second they see them they'll know the jig is up and that they've split their forces yet even facing off from each other across the battlefield they somehow fail to notice what might be an important factor in the battle like just where that few thousand missing cavalry might be and have absolutely no idea they even exist let alone aren't there until they are literally told so straight from the mouths of captured Northern lords.

We already know there's at least one lord who likes the idea of running straight at Lannister's army, these are martial men who would be more inclined to grumble and complain if they were following an actually safe and cautious plan of pinning down Tywin's army without wasting men. That's a good question, why does Bolton keep his command, why is Theon sent home to Pyke, why does Robb let his bannermen name him a king and start playing the game of thrones, why does he marry Jeyne when he's made a solemn promise to honor his marriage alliance with the Freys.

I wouldn't call Bolton incompetent, he takes a very small risk to himself and gets rewarded for it with the deaths of Hornwood and Cerwyn, two lords with lands close to his and strong supportes of the Starks and he always has the plausible deniability of 'hey the Greatjon made it sound like such a great plan I thought I'd give it a whirl and run the men ragged on a forced march right into Lannister's wheelhouse. Wait, you mean that's neither cautious nor cunning? Sorry boss, I'll do better next time... at Duskendale.'

[bloodymime]

Actually I have been wondering why a fifteen year old boy is in charge of the Northern Army. Ned's Lord of Winterfell, Warden of the North and so on. He must have had Northern lords he trusted more than others, why hasn't he established some kind of chain of command concerning who's in charge if something happens to him while his children are still children. The Lannisters seem to have Mardbrand, the Tyrells have Tarly. When Ned leaves Winterfell he never says anything about who would be in command in case of war. Even when Cat comes to KL and he's giving her instructions he gives no delegation of martial authority. If it's that important to the Starks for a Stark to be in charge then why exactly is Benjen in the Night's Watch instead of being Ned's second until at least Robb becomes a man.

[Ser Hippie]

bloodymime, on 01 May 2012 - 11:20 AM, said:

Exactly, it makes no sense. Thank you.

I was saying the argument you made, that I quoted, made no sense.

Quote

We're supposed to think the Lannisters have such detailed intel on the Northern army that the second they see them they'll know the jig is up and that they've split their forces yet even facing off from each other across the battlefield they somehow fail to notice what might be an important factor in the battle like just where that few thousand missing cavalry might be and have absolutely no idea they even exist let alone aren't there until they are literally told so straight from the mouths of captured Northern lords.

It really isn't anywhere near that complicated.

- If Roose doesn't engage Tywin, the Lannister scouts will find his army and note there's no cavalry and Tywin decides to reinforce or directly warn Jaime.
- When Roose does engage Tywin, the Lannisters may or may not notice but they're engaged in a battle and it's not exactly easy to disengage once the fighting has begun. Even if Tywin notices Robb isn't there (and for whatever reason, he doesn't), he can't just take his army and go or Roose will destroy him from behind.

You seem to both overestimate the ability to tell exactly what's going on when on the battlefield and the breadth of information the Lannister scouts bring Tywin. He's informed that Robb is marching his whole host down to meet him, which is exactly why he commits himself at the Green Fork. Which, again, is why Robb sends Roose there, to tie down Tywin's army.

Quote

he always has the plausible deniability of 'hey the Greatjon made it sound like such a great plan I thought I'd give it a whirl and run the men ragged on a forced march right into Lannister's wheelhouse. Wait, you mean that's neither cautious nor cunning? Sorry boss, I'll do better next time... at Duskendale.'

Robb ordered Roose to confront Tywin, he did. You seem to keep changing your mind over whether Roose was disobeying orders and competent, disobeying orders and incompetent, obeying orders and incompetent or just flat out treacherous.

Roose didn't do what the Greatjon would have done. The Greatjon would have plunged his forces in after Tyrion's clansmen and suffered a major defeat because he would have fallen into Tywin's trap. Under Roose, the northern attack is relatively tame and the army withdraws. And, again, not a single person comments on Roose' performance in a derogatory way.

If Roose was so spectacularly stupid or wrong like you claim, why doesn't a single one of Robb's bannermen or advisers say so? Why are the Lannisters frustrated by their plans failing and Robb's succeeding instead of gloating about how Roose played right into their hands and benefitted their cause?

Roose was certainly traitorous by the time of Duskendale (he flat out informs the Lannisters of what the plan is) but the Green Fork is not evidence of anything other than Roose playing his part in Robb's plan.

-------------
As to your points regarding the logic (or lack thereof) in certain moves, the reasons for Bolton having command at the Green Fork are pretty clear. The Greatjon probably was more than mollified by his ability to lead troops at the Whispering Wood, Battle of the Camps and the campaign in the west.

There are certain "wtf" moments in the books, like Robb marrying Jeyne, but I don't see how they're relevant to this topic.

Edited by Ser Hippie, 01 May 2012 - 12:02 PM.

[The GreatRon]

Eh I dunno if he always meant to turn his cloak,  The way Roose talks about Robb when "Nan" is his cup bearer never made me think that he would turn against Robb, at least up to that point. It wasnt until I finished ASoS and re read for the first time that I realized the odd military decisions that Roose was making leading up to the RW.  

Its hard to say if he ALWAYS meant to betray Robb, but I don't think so.

[bloodymime]

Ser Hippie, on 01 May 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

It really isn't anywhere near that complicated.

- If Roose doesn't engage Tywin, the Lannister scouts will find his army and note there's no cavalry and Tywin decides to reinforce or directly warn Jaime.
- When Roose does engage Tywin, the Lannisters may or may not notice but they're engaged in a battle and it's not exactly easy to disengage once the fighting has begun. Even if Tywin notices Robb isn't there (and for whatever reason, he doesn't), he can't just take his army and go or Roose will destroy him from behind.

You seem to both overestimate the ability to tell exactly what's going on when on the battlefield and the breadth of information the Lannister scouts bring Tywin. He's informed that Robb is marching his whole host down to meet him, which is exactly why he commits himself at the Green Fork. Which, again, is why Robb sends Roose there, to tie down Tywin's army.

The Lannister scouts will find the Northern army and note there's no cavalry. Are these men in the same army that fail to notice there's no cavalry when they're literally standing across the battlefield from the Northerners?

I don't want to misunderstand you so perhaps you can clarify, are you saying the Lannisters had no idea the Northerners had a few thousand cavalry until Bolton's attack led to their having captured Northern lords that tell them this or are you saying several thousand men on horseback are easy to miss on a battlefield?

[Ser Hippie]

bloodymime, on 01 May 2012 - 12:29 PM, said:

The Lannister scouts will find the Northern army and note there's no cavalry. Are these men in the same army that fail to notice there's no cavalry when they're literally standing across the battlefield from the Northerners?

I don't want to misunderstand you so perhaps you can clarify, are you saying the Lannisters had no idea the Northerners had a few thousand cavalry until Bolton's attack led to their having captured Northern lords that tell them this or are you saying several thousand men on horseback are easy to miss on a battlefield?

What exactly is your point? The Lannisters didn't notice Robb and the majority of his cavalry were missing until after the battle. That isn't debatable and is exactly the point; in the rush of battle you don't have time to notice every little detail (and even if they had, it's very hard to disengage on your own terms when unprepared). It's much easier to note the missing cavalry when Roose is just sitting in his camp and you're not trying to work out tactical decisions.

Again, what is your point exactly?

Robb orders Roose to confront Tywin and keep him occupied while he takes his cavalry to attack Jaime. Central to this strategy is Tywin cannot know Robb has split his forces and can't be allowed to move to support Jaime, which is why Roose is ordered to confront Tywin and not shadow him.

Roose does as he's ordered, the plan works. What exactly about that doesn't make sense?

Edited by Ser Hippie, 01 May 2012 - 01:21 PM.

[bloodymime]

There's absolutely nowhere left to go here but I was rereading Clash of Kings and this stuck out to me with the banners on the Green Forks fresh in my head. Tyrion at the battle and Arya at Harranhall see the exact same banners except for the bloody man replacing the Hornwood's moose.

Tyrion. -"He glimpsed the bull moose of the Hornwoods, the Karstark sunburst, Lord Cerwyn’s battle-axe, and the mailed fist of the Glovers … and the twin towers of Frey, blue on grey."

Arya.- "Twin towers. Sunburst. Bloody man. Battle-axe." She also sees Glover himself with his silver fist.