160 replies to this topic

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Kim87, on 28 May 2012 - 05:52 AM, said:

I agree what everything you wrote. It would make sense.

But you really are ignoring the facts that we are getting from the books. We know that several northern houses have more or less lost everything. There are no more fighting men. They all died. Something that does of course not makes any sense at all, but we have to judge the facts we get from the books. Not real life.

For me at least it’s more a case of certain parts of the story being less developed then others. Things like economy and population numbers seems to be less thought out.

You are neglecting some facts:

- The North is barely able to make do thanks to medieval technology and climate. Every hand not actively working the field is hard to feed. Hell, their old ones commit suicide during winter to save food. How many healthy men not actively working can they feed?

- Robb gathered his troops quickly, meaning the Lords gathered the men from the immediate neighbourhood of their castles and marched off while leaving those guys in villages 500 miles through rugged country behind. And therefore the immediate neighbourhood of the castles is off far worse than the average over the entire North.

- House Umber and House Karstark were overcommiting. They and the Boltons make up half of Robbs army, but they are just three out of about fifteen Lordships. The Boltons get a pass because they could go up against the Starks in the past and are probably way beyond average, but the Umbers and Karstarks aren't.

[Jedi Master Hot Pie]

Bright Blue Eyes, on 28 May 2012 - 07:12 AM, said:

You are neglecting some facts:

- The North is barely able to make do thanks to medieval technology and climate. Every hand not actively working the field is hard to feed. Hell, their old ones commit suicide during winter to save food. How many healthy men not actively working can they feed?

- Robb gathered his troops quickly, meaning the Lords gathered the men from the immediate neighbourhood of their castles and marched off while leaving those guys in villages 500 miles through rugged country behind. And therefore the immediate neighbourhood of the castles is off far worse than the average over the entire North.

- House Umber and House Karstark were overcommiting. They and the Boltons make up half of Robbs army, but they are just three out of about fifteen Lordships. The Boltons get a pass because they could go up against the Starks in the past and are probably way beyond average, but the Umbers and Karstarks aren't.

1). Yet the Karstarks crop has gone to rot and the Umber's "armies" are made of green boys and old men.

2). Men were able to come from all over the North. Whilst I understand men in the most rural villages wouldn't of been able to come, how come most the Northern soldiers couldn't arrive when men are arriving as far from Karhold and Flint's Finger? Stark's armies weren't from his neighbourhood, it was the majority of the Northern Armies. He didn't go south with 20,000 and leave another 30,000 behind.

3). Ramsay Snow fielded 500 men when he destroyed Rodrik's army at Winterfell. Whilst I assume most of these men would've been soldiers to an extent, if the Dreadfort could field several thousand more men Stannis shouldn't be a major threat.

People have to realise that Westeros is not France. Westeros does not follow the same laws of Medieval Europe. Westeros isn't Europe!!!
We can only go by what we read in the books and what GRRM confirms, not by what we assume because Robb Stark fielded 20,000 men, so that must only be 0.0001% of the population because in France they could only do it like this...

Edited by Jedi Master Hot Pie, 28 May 2012 - 08:46 AM.

[Lummel]

Yes but don't forget there isn't a mobile workforce.  If you start pulling men from the fields to march them off to war you can't just bus in labour from other parts.  In pre-mechanised agriculture getting the harvest in requires the work of everybody - men, women and children.  Once you start removing adult men in hundreds and thousands you end up having a disproportionate effect on the rural economy overall.

Since there don't seem to be many towns in the North and not much in the way of obvious population clusters they could be a lot of people in scattered small holdings.  I guess that areas around the major holdfasts have been more heavily scoured for men and horses simply because it's easier for the Lords to summon those people.

[Jedi Master Hot Pie]

Lummel, on 28 May 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:

Yes but don't forget there isn't a mobile workforce.  If you start pulling men from the fields to march them off to war you can't just bus in labour from other parts.  In pre-mechanised agriculture getting the harvest in requires the work of everybody - men, women and children.  Once you start removing adult men in hundreds and thousands you end up having a disproportionate effect on the rural economy overall.

Since there don't seem to be many towns in the North and not much in the way of obvious population clusters they could be a lot of people in scattered small holdings.  I guess that areas around the major holdfasts have been more heavily scoured for men and horses simply because it's easier for the Lords to summon those people.

Definitely, I do believe that most of the Northern population wouldn't be living near the major castles/towns/cities. But the population being 6 million is kind of retarded.
We're talking about a massive region with a cold climate and varying terrain. You also have the Gift/Old Gift which is largely depopulated, and the Neck which is basically a massive swamp, and swamps aren't really ideal places to live. What about the Wolfswood? Are there hundreds and thousands of woodsmen just chilling in there, are there two million people hanging out in the Rills and along the Stony Shore?

What about Dorne and the Iron Isles? One is tiny and the other is basically just a desert? How many people live there?

Quotes from the book, the army sizes we know of, the terrain of the regions and the descriptions of places from POV characters (eg, Bran as he treks through the North or numerous characters going through the Riverlands or Crownlands) are what we should use to determine population sizes. That doesn't mean people should grab a history book and say, "Well France has this so the Reach has this".

[Free Northman]

Jedi Master Hot Pie, on 28 May 2012 - 08:44 AM, said:

1). Yet the Karstarks crop has gone to rot and the Umber's "armies" are made of green boys and old men.

2). Men were able to come from all over the North. Whilst I understand men in the most rural villages wouldn't of been able to come, how come most the Northern soldiers couldn't arrive when men are arriving as far from Karhold and Flint's Finger? Stark's armies weren't from his neighbourhood, it was the majority of the Northern Armies. He didn't go south with 20,000 and leave another 30,000 behind.

3). Ramsay Snow fielded 500 men when he destroyed Rodrik's army at Winterfell. Whilst I assume most of these men would've been soldiers to an extent, if the Dreadfort could field several thousand more men Stannis shouldn't be a major threat.

People have to realise that Westeros is not France. Westeros does not follow the same laws of Medieval Europe. Westeros isn't Europe!!!
We can only go by what we read in the books and what GRRM confirms, not by what we assume because Robb Stark fielded 20,000 men, so that must only be 0.0001% of the population because in France they could only do it like this...

Sigh.

The known urbanised population of Westeros is in the region of 1.5 million people.

Giving Westeros a population of say 10 million, as you seem to be suggesting, would mean that 15% of the entire population is urbanised. This is not possible in the real medieval world.

This is DOUBLY impossible in the Westerosi world, with its erratic seasons.

Martin has further said that the Iceland depiction of the Lands Beyond the Wall in the TV series is incorrect, as those lands are actually more like the areas around Michigan - heavily forested, rather than ice fields as depicted in the show.

Meaning that the North itself (south of the Wall) is similar to the Northern United States, rather than to Canada or Alaska.

Now, for the Reach to field an army of around 100,000, it would have to be FAR more populous than medieval France, which NEVER raised an army even CLOSE to that size.

This is the part that you don't get.

Raising an army of 30,000 doesn't mean that that is close to the living number of men in your population. It means that is at best 1% of your population.

And as Martin said, the North's army was understated due to the difficulty in gathering men over long distances in the North.

Robb DID leave 30,000 men behind. Due to his haste, and due to the last Harvest that was underway at the time.

So the full 50,000 men that the North can truly raise, given time, represents 1% of it's population, more or less.

The bottomline is that you simply have no true understanding of the sheer size of Westeros.

The North's wildness, lack of communications lines, roads etc. means that to a subsistence farmer living 100 miles from Karhold, the War probably doesn't even exist. He was never even reached by the summons to war, and is blisfully going about his daily business, unaware of what's going on in the South.

Once Winter arrives, he will pack up and head to his nearest stronghold. And then the true population size will reveal itself.

[BinkyBonks]

Free Northman, on 27 May 2012 - 10:27 AM, said:

I am normally more polite, but responding to you in a similar tone to yours, you're talking through your arse.

Based on medieval statistics, Westeros would be rather sparsely populated, even with a population of 40 million.

And let's not even get started on city sizes.

Just accept it: This issue has been resolved. And the answer is 40 million.

Yes, the issue has been resolved...if you lack basic numerical skills and most elementary critical thinking.

Medieval Europe was very different from Westeros in all kinds of ways. Such as, the peasantry in medieval Europe would seldom participate in wars. Wars were basically fought between paid soldiers. In Westeros, the peasantry does participate. In this sense, Westeros should be more like the Roman Empire than medival Europe (and Rome at its peak had about a million soldiers).

Furthermore, we're told that much of the North is left basically unpopulated by the departure of 20,000 soldiers (which include the peasantry). Only way to get around this is for Martin to backtrack on what he's already written and emphasized about the North being left unmanned...or alternatively, to drastically lower these population estimates of 40 million.

Worth noting that Martin himself certainly has not committed himself to this figure of 40 million. There's no evidence that the population of Westeros is 40 million.

Edited by BinkyBonks, 28 May 2012 - 01:07 PM.

[BinkyBonks]

Free Northman, on 28 May 2012 - 10:13 AM, said:

Giving Westeros a population of say 10 million, as you seem to be suggesting, would mean that 15% of the entire population is urbanised. This is not possible in the real medieval world.

Try and talk about a subject you know something about. Ancient Rome had a population of the order of 1.5 million. There is nothing impossible about most of the population being concentrated into urban centres. All it requires is the right infrastructure...such as that which is rendered broken by the War of the Five Kings, leaving the whole city to starve.

Free Northman, on 28 May 2012 - 10:13 AM, said:

Now, for the Reach to field an army of around 100,000, it would have to be FAR more populous than medieval France, which NEVER raised an army even CLOSE to that size.

Rome at its peak had a standing army ten times bigger than that. As soon as nationalism begins to surface again, the French army was far bigger than your 100,000...Napoleon had at his disposal a fighting force of millions.

And no, this was nothing to do with industrialization. Even after industrialization, it was still harder to produce a rifle than it was in medieval times to forge a sword...let alone a spear or scythe, which any untrained peasant could wield.

In short, you have no idea what you are talking about. Army capacity had nothing, repeat, nothing to do with industrialization, and everything to do with ideology. In medieval Europe they were not lacking the technology to equip hundreds of thousands of peasants with spears, scythes, and clubs. It didn't happen because the peasants didn't care. In Westeros, we're told repeatedly that the peasants do care. See, for instance, that grand speech about war by Maribald to which Martin devoted a whole chapter.

Edited by BinkyBonks, 28 May 2012 - 01:31 PM.

[Darth Rivers]

Free Northman, on 28 May 2012 - 05:25 AM, said:

The Reach is between 30-40% the size of the North. I've got the North at about 1.2 million square miles, putting the Reach at roughly 400,000 square miles.

That's 50% larger than France.

France's population varied widely during the Middle Ages, so I'm not sure which estimate to go with.

Either way, a fertile medieval setting should have a population density of about 40 people per square mile (England, for example).

If you go with that estimate, the Reach should have about 16 million people. If you go with just 30 people per square mile, you're looking at about 12 million.

I think 12 million is the correct estimate. With the North at about 6 million.

That gives the Reach a population density of 30 vs the North's 5.

That means the Reach has 6 times the population density of the North, which seems fair.

Reach is vert fertile, and always stated to be densely populated. I don't see why it can't have 30 million inhabitants, if France had 20. In fact, it fits almost perfectly.

[Free Northman]

BinkyBonks, on 28 May 2012 - 01:22 PM, said:

Try and talk about a subject you know something about. Ancient Rome had a population of the order of 1.5 million. There is nothing impossible about most of the population being concentrated into urban centres. All it requires is the right infrastructure...such as that which is rendered broken by the War of the Five Kings, leaving the whole city to starve.

Rome at its peak had a standing army ten times bigger than that. As soon as nationalism begins to surface again, the French army was far bigger than your 100,000...Napoleon had at his disposal a fighting force of millions.

And no, this was nothing to do with industrialization. Even after industrialization, it was still harder to produce a rifle than it was in medieval times to forge a sword...let alone a spear or scythe, which any untrained peasant could wield.

In short, you have no idea what you are talking about. Army capacity had nothing, repeat, nothing to do with industrialization, and everything to do with ideology. In medieval Europe they were not lacking the technology to equip hundreds of thousands of peasants with spears, scythes, and clubs. It didn't happen because the peasants didn't care. In Westeros, we're told repeatedly that the peasants do care. See, for instance, that grand speech about war by Maribald to which Martin devoted a whole chapter.

So many errors in a single post. Amazing.

The biggest error? Using statistics from the Roman Empire at the height of its power and applying it to a Medieval setting to try and bolster your point.

And then using figures from the era of Napoleon and again trying to apply it to a Medieval setting.

Fail.

Edited by Free Northman, 28 May 2012 - 02:06 PM.

[Darth Rivers]

Quote

Ancient Rome had a population of the order of 1.5 million.

WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT???????


Ancient Rome according to most modern estimates had a population of about 80 million. Unless you mean the city itself.

Edited by Darth Rivers, 28 May 2012 - 02:02 PM.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Jedi Master Hot Pie, on 28 May 2012 - 09:10 AM, said:

What about Dorne and the Iron Isles? One is tiny and the other is basically just a desert? How many people live there?

One is between the size of Ireland and entire Great Britain. The other is basically the entire Maghreb. Please try to understand how fucking big Westeros is. It's almost twice the size of Europe, from Cap Finisterra to the Ural and Sicily to Hammerfest.
The North alone is almost as big as Europe. From Winterfell to Karhold is probably similar to the distance from Barcelona to Warsaw. Travelling that distance by horse (or worse, foot) takes literally months! Sending a courier from Karhold to village xy a bit off to gather men takes  at least one month one way and two to return with them, coupled with two or three months to Moat Cailin on better roads. And that is one village of a whole bunch. How could you gather the men from these and be at Moat Cailin in turn?

[BinkyBonks]

Free Northman, on 28 May 2012 - 01:55 PM, said:

So many errors in a single post. Amazing.

The biggest error? Using statistics from the Roman Empire at the height of its power and applying it to a Medieval setting to try and bolster your point.

And then using figures from the era of Napoleon and again trying to apply it to a Medieval setting.

Fail.

No, it's not an "error". Medieval technology and learning was actually superior to the Roman equivalent by almost every measure. Infrastructure, not significantly different either. Main difference in terms of military capacity is the nationalist ideology, which was prevalent in Rome, disappeared in the Middle Ages, and reappeared in the 17th to 18 century, when we start to see huge armies again numbering in the hundreds of thousands.

Darth Rivers, on 28 May 2012 - 02:01 PM, said:

WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT???????


Ancient Rome according to most modern estimates had a population of about 80 million. Unless you mean the city itself.

Why wouldn't I mean the city? I said "Rome" and we're talking in the context of urban centres.

Better to post nothing at all than to interpret someone in the least charitable way to make them look stupid.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

BinkyBonks, on 28 May 2012 - 02:54 PM, said:

Why wouldn't I mean the city? I said "Rome" and we're talking in the context of urban centres.

Better to post nothing at all than to interpret someone in the least charitable way to make them look stupid.

Obviously the Romans ate only tomatoes grown on their rooftops...

[BinkyBonks]

Free Northman, on 28 May 2012 - 10:13 AM, said:

So the full 50,000 men that the North can truly raise, given time, represents 1% of it's population, more or less.

Read the books sometimes.

Winterfell, the capital of the north, is deserted in Clash of Kings. In Dance with Dragons, the best Stannis can manage to recruit able-bodied men to his cause is to allow wildlings past the Wall and to resort to mountain clans whose very existence is almost a secret.

Paid fighters might be 1% of the population. That's a medieval army. In SoaIF, we're repeatedly told that peasants join the fighting as well as paid soldiers. It's a deal more than 1%.

[MGorgon]

Bright Blue Eyes, on 28 May 2012 - 02:42 PM, said:

One is between the size of Ireland and entire Great Britain. The other is basically the entire Maghreb. Please try to understand how fucking big Westeros is. It's almost twice the size of Europe, from Cap Finisterra to the Ural and Sicily to Hammerfest.
The North alone is almost as big as Europe. From Winterfell to Karhold is probably similar to the distance from Barcelona to Warsaw. Travelling that distance by horse (or worse, foot) takes literally months! Sending a courier from Karhold to village xy a bit off to gather men takes  at least one month one way and two to return with them, coupled with two or three months to Moat Cailin on better roads. And that is one village of a whole bunch. How could you gather the men from these and be at Moat Cailin in turn?

Didn't Roberts trip from King's Landing to Winterfell take around a month, travelling at a more leisurely pace?

[BinkyBonks]

Bright Blue Eyes, on 28 May 2012 - 03:07 PM, said:

Obviously the Romans ate only tomatoes grown on their rooftops...

No. I'd guess they ate food produced in Italy.

Which had a population of around five million.

A few million less than the population we're estimating for the South of Westeros.

[Free Northman]

MGorgon, on 28 May 2012 - 03:08 PM, said:

Didn't Roberts trip from King's Landing to Winterfell take around a month, travelling at a more leisurely pace?

The Karstark lands (that tiny outcrop of land in the far northeast) are pretty much the size of the entire England.

Edited by Free Northman, 28 May 2012 - 03:15 PM.

[Free Northman]

BinkyBonks, on 28 May 2012 - 03:13 PM, said:

No. I'd guess they ate food produced in Italy.

Which had a population of around five million.

A few million less than the population we're estimating for the South of Westeros.

Italy was at the centre of a Mediteranean wide Empire, supported by inter Mediteranean trade networks, food imports from the Roman Provinces, the famous Roman roads that were unequalled until the industrial revolution and an imperial infrastructure that cannot be compared to the hovels, mud roads and feudal infrastructure of Medieval Western and Northern Europe.

London in the Middle Ages had something like 40,000 inhabitants, compared to Imperial Rome's 1 million people.

There is no comparison.

Edited by Free Northman, 28 May 2012 - 03:24 PM.

[MGorgon]

Free Northman, on 28 May 2012 - 03:14 PM, said:

The Karstark lands (that tiny outcrop of land in the far northeast) are pretty much the size of the entire England.

Sure, but the distance between Karhold and Winterfell is at the most half that between Winterfell and King's Landing. I could see it being significantly faster because of the Kingsroad, but months using horses to go to Karhold? I find that a bit hard to believe to be honest

[Bright Blue Eyes]

MGorgon, on 28 May 2012 - 03:08 PM, said:

Didn't Roberts trip from King's Landing to Winterfell take around a month, travelling at a more leisurely pace?

Nope. It took somewhere between three months and half a year. On the Kingsroad.

BinkyBonks, on 28 May 2012 - 03:13 PM, said:

No. I'd guess they ate food produced in Italy.

Which had a population of around five million.

A few million less than the population we're estimating for the South of Westeros.

That's probably the reason Egypt was named the breadbasket of Rome...