130 replies to this topic

[Lord Ben]

Like all his good theories I can see this working both ways.   They could have had a decoy hoping it lasted long enough to get real Aegon out of the city but when the kid was smashed in they never found out, etc. There could have been no Aegon there at all and Tywin knew his "present" to Robert wouldn't be as good with only one kid so he produces a mangled unrecognizable body to get into his good graces by handing over two and trusting that the imposter wasn't going to say anything because he had just as much to hide, and with "everyone knowing" he was killed the real Aegon would be much harder for people to put their faith in, etc.

He could have been at the Tower of Joy and Eddard gave her to Ashara Dayne who "lept into the sea" and headed to Essos and linked up with Illyrio/Varys.

Edited by Lord Ben, 01 May 2012 - 11:47 PM.

[Apple Martini]

^ I'm curious as to what thematic significance, if any, the black dragon sign that washes ashore on the Quiet Isle — rusted red — has.

One of my biggest problems with the idea of a switch is, it just doesn't make much damn sense. Just smuggle the kid out — why bother with a decoy? Viserys and Dany were as much "Targ heirs" as an exiled Aegon would have been. Why not make it known to Targ loyalists that Aegon survived, to give them a rallying point? Set up a court in exile. Show everyone that the kid survived. That's what you do if you really intend to take over a throne; do it Henry VII style. When you do it Perkin Warbeck style — showing up years after the fact claiming to be a long-dead prince — you leave yourself open to allegations that you're a fraud, and the allegations are probably correct.

[Lord Ben]

Apple Martini, on 02 May 2012 - 12:14 AM, said:

^ I'm curious as to what thematic significance, if any, the black dragon sign that washes ashore on the Quiet Isle — rusted red — has.

Perhaps the Golden Company leaving Westeos as Blackfyre's but turning red when they follow Aegon once there?

Apple Martini, on 02 May 2012 - 12:14 AM, said:

One of my biggest problems with the idea of a switch is, it just doesn't make much damn sense. Just smuggle the kid out — why bother with a decoy? Viserys and Dany were as much "Targ heirs" as an exiled Aegon would have been. Why not make it known to Targ loyalists that Aegon survived, to give them a rallying point? Set up a court in exile. Show everyone that the kid survived. That's what you do if you really intend to take over a throne; do it Henry VII style. When you do it Perkin Warbeck style — showing up years after the fact claiming to be a long-dead prince — you leave yourself open to allegations that you're a fraud, and the allegations are probably correct.

Well, Viserys was open and wasn't a rallying point and was instead chased around the world by "the usurpers assassins" for a dozen years.   Hypothetically real Aegon was not open and was raised by good tutors to be a decent ruler...  And likely surrounded by people who would vouch for him.  So it does appear to have been a good decision within GRRM's story, with the benefit of hindsight and a writer who gets to pick whether his characters choices turn out to be right or wrong.  Whether it would turn out that way in a RL struggle for the throne would be up for debate and you're probably right IMHO.  

For the decoy I potentially see a few options.  

• They possibly wanted one to buy a few hours, hoping to escape the city before the ruse was discovered only it never was so they took advantage of the situation as best they could.
  
• They merely escaped and Gregor said "Sorry Tywin, only found one kid." and he said "find me another corpse to give Robert so he knows we're his!"
  
• And "Aegon was never here!" followed by Tywin saying "produce a corpse and tell nobody, it'll make it harder to claim Aegon is Aegon later."

[hombay]

This a heatedly debated topic and it gladdens me to see that the debate so far is civil. Keep it going guys!

Edited by hombay, 02 May 2012 - 05:30 AM.

[Lord Martin]

Has anyone mentioned the statute Tyrion see's at Illyrio's Manse?  It looks just like Aegon but its claimed to be a young Illyrio.  That suggests a familial relationship if not a father/son one.  Similarly, Illyrio gets all weepy and nostalgic when he brings Tyrion to Aegon and company.  He has a trunk of "his favorites" as well.  Obviously its not a lock, but if I were a gambling man, I'd wager that Aegon is Aegon Mopatis.

As to Serra being a Blackfyre, it would make sense thematically.  But the limited evidence is the line about Blackfyre being extinguished in the male line and Serra being a mysterious female with possibly silver hair.  But again, it would make some thematic sense.

Can't wait to learn more!

[CrypticWeirwood]

A much more important question than Lord Connington’s involvement is Lady Lemore’s, particularly if we grant the conceit that she is Ashara Dayne.  She was involved much earlier and much more intimately.  What’s in it for her?  What’s her angle?  Why would Princess Elia’s handmaiden fake her own death for a mere Blackfyre pretender whom she didn’t even know?

This is the question that really does need answering,

[Lord Steward]

I am definitely a subscriber to the Aegon Blackfyre-Mopatis theory, and yeah, I think the presence of boy's clothes in Illyrio's manse is a clue, as is the rise of the Blackfyres to the forefront of the backstory.

However, realistically, I'm aware of the possibility that all of the clues put before us are red herrings. Martin has made all the hints around this particular theory relatively minor, allowing them to be easily explained away in the unlikely event that Aegon is the real deal.

With competing theories on almost every plot point, some of them have to be red herrings, and no amount of reading between the lines and digging through the backstory will confirm which theories are correct. Martin has been extremely clever, giving us enough clues to come up with theories that we can debate for years while he writes the next book.

[Cheese Pudding]

When I was reading I thought that those clothes were Aegon's...but he was Illyrio's "son". Illyrio was like a step-father, not THE father. I guess that's possible too.

[Lord Ben]

I mean, I have old kids clothes in a box in my basement.  I'm not sure why Ilyrio having some old clothes is proof of much....

[Apple Martini]

Lord Ben, on 02 May 2012 - 05:54 PM, said:

I mean, I have old kids clothes in a box in my basement.  I'm not sure why Ilyrio having some old clothes is proof of much....

It shows that he had a young boy who stayed there, a young boy he loved enough to buy him quality clothing. But as far as we know, he doesn't have any children.

[Golden Lady]

Apple Martini, on 02 May 2012 - 06:10 PM, said:

It shows that he had a young boy who stayed there, a young boy he loved enough to buy him quality clothing. But as far as we know, he doesn't have any children.

Illyrio is rich. He may have bought quality clothing even to a stranger.

[Apple Martini]

Golden lady, on 02 May 2012 - 06:55 PM, said:

Illyrio is rich. He may have bought quality clothing even to a stranger.

But who would this stranger have been?

[Golden Lady]

Apple Martini, on 02 May 2012 - 07:02 PM, said:

But who would this stranger have been?

I think there's a huge possiblity it was Aegon. It's a nice theory. I say that the quality of the clothes is not so important since he is rich.

[SerMixalot]

Just a quick point, GRRM made a point of indicating the baby was relatively indistinguishable where the older child that was killed was clearly distinguishable.  ie the baby switch was easily made without any being the wiser.  like gilly's baby few people knew exactly what the baby looked like

and there is certainly a parralell with gilly's baby

[Apple Martini]

SerMixalot, on 02 May 2012 - 07:38 PM, said:

Just a quick point, GRRM made a point of indicating the baby was relatively indistinguishable where the older child that was killed was clearly distinguishable.  ie the baby switch was easily made without any being the wiser.  like gilly's baby few people knew exactly what the baby looked like

and there is certainly a parralell with gilly's baby

But it works both ways — it's also easier to retcon a switch that never really happened by saying, "Well the kid's face was destroyed, so ..."

[Neirben]

Apple Martini, on 02 May 2012 - 07:02 PM, said:

But who would this stranger have been?

Varys's little birds on some kind of training or just waiting before getting shipped to Westeros?

[ManyFacedOne]

Seems so obvious once you think about it. Old clothes, good quality -- he had a kid there once of high status. But I probably wouldn't have even put it together if not for this thread. (I'm sure I skimmed over it as just another description when I read it.) Just goes to show that the smallest details aren't always insignificant.

[Harle The Handsome]

Apple Martini, on 01 May 2012 - 09:39 PM, said:

He had absolutely no way of knowing they would hatch. To him they were probably just expensive status symbols. Drogo paid a lot of money to marry Dany, largely on the basis that she was the last dragon princess or however you want to put it. Giving Dany dragon eggs gave her a sheen of legitimacy, a way of "proving" that she was who they claimed her to be. I think they were as much for Drogo's benefit as for Dany's.

I just want to clarify something  here.  Drogo did not pay anything for Dany.  She was a gift and it is Dothraki custom to reciprocate.  Odds are Illyrio gifted Khal drogo with a wife with royal blood in exchange for the safety of his city, and merely told Viserys Khal Drogo would gift him with an army as a way to convince him to agree to the deal.

[Ferrous]

Lord Martin, on 02 May 2012 - 08:11 AM, said:

Has anyone mentioned the statute Tyrion see's at Illyrio's Manse?  It looks just like Aegon but its claimed to be a young Illyrio.  That suggests a familial relationship if not a father/son one.  Similarly, Illyrio gets all weepy and nostalgic when he brings Tyrion to Aegon and company.  He has a trunk of "his favorites" as well.  Obviously its not a lock, but if I were a gambling man, I'd wager that Aegon is Aegon Mopatis.

As to Serra being a Blackfyre, it would make sense thematically.  But the limited evidence is the line about Blackfyre being extinguished in the male line and Serra being a mysterious female with possibly silver hair.  But again, it would make some thematic sense.

Can't wait to learn more!

But on the other hand, it seems logical that a legitimate Aegon would have also been raised by Illyrio.
If you raise a child in your house from the age of two then you would almost certainly view them as your own child, especially when you do not have any children of your own.

[Eejit]

One problem I have with Aegon being Illyrio's son is that 'secret heir to the throne' is a pretty shitty and unnecessary life to put your son through.

A child of Illyrio would already be heir to great wealth and power. Becoming king of Westeros would mean more power, sure (and potentially more wealth), but would carry far more danger and requires a long, hazardous and above all uncertain route to reach the Iron Throne.
Illyrio seems intelligent enough and wise enough to me to realise that heavy weighs the crown.