Ramsay's Letter to John

[SerMixalot]

I cant see Stannis writing the letter cause his honor wouldnt let him. I dont want to think of Stannis being killed at this point and if you read the sample chapter on GRRM's website he is still alive (but that is immaterial given timeframes in ASOIAF i suppose). I dont see how Mance could have taken winterfell, one man 3 or 4 spearwives against hundreds of northmen. I dont see what Ramsey would gain by bringing a wilding army against hiim given the precarious situation he has at winterfell

a true mystery, what about the karstark girl, wouldnt she know about Reek/Ramsey? being at the wall she would have the resst of the info for the lettter

[Random person in the North]

Doubt anyone but Ramsey wrote the letter.

The interesting point in the letter to me is that he specifically mentions 7 days of battle. The Bolton's don't have that many men - 7 days of hard fighting with Stannis' forces ultimately scattered suggests there can't be many left. His position must be weak.

[Knez Snow]

There is small hint in Theon's tWoW chapter that Stannis might fake his death. "You may hear I am dead. It might even be true..."

[Jayce]

There is small hint in Theon's tWoW chapter that Stannis might fake his death. "You may hear I am dead. It might even be true..."

Good point, making me think this ...

II still think that Stannis and the Manderlys encountered each other, came to an accord and Stannis gave Lightbringer to Manderly, so he could take it to Ramsay, claim victory over Stannis and then Stannis and Manderly would be in a position to take Winterfell by surprise. The letter is written by Ramsay in the period between when Manderly comes back with Lightbringer, and when Stannis attacks.

... might just be possible.

[lewis92]

same shit everyday

[Risha]

One more possibility: Since we haven't seen Bran's pov in a while, and he has the connections to have discovered all of this, perhaps he sent it to get Jon and the NW to come south and liberate Winterfell, and get Jon closer to interacting with the other stories (and Howland Reed!).

Having said that, though, I am still in the camp that Ramsey most likely wrote the letter. But I also think that Mance, given the chance, would manipulate all parties into a confrontation, knowing that Ramsey doesn't have the numbers to win.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

I think Ramsay wrote the letter but it is based upon incorrect information. He's wrong about Stannis' defeat as he's being fooled by the Manderlys and Umbers. However, he's probably torturing Mance and/or the remaining washerwomen and knows the truth about that.

[VaramyrSixchins]

To respond to the OP, no, a crow likely didn't write the letter. Besides the reasons cited by other posters, why would a crow resort to such intricate, subtle manipulation when, as we've seen, they can simply stab the LC they don't agree with?

I think JayDubya is on the right track, something happened along those lines. The info on Stannis is probably part of some misdirection planted by Stannis himself. However, the Mance info considerably narrows the suspect list. Personally, I think Roose wrote the letter in an attempt to blackmail Jon into not revealing that Arya is fake. Jon didn't desert or interfere when his father was beheaded, his brother went to war, his younger brothers "killed" and his sister wedded. Roose sees this as evidence that Jon can be intimidated, and the letter is a straight up warning that should Jon reveal the Arya deception, Roose will reveal the Mance deception. Roose HAS to have Arya, she's the linchpin to his claim. Reek is just as vital, as he knows the real events behind Bran/Rikkon's "death". All the other hostages mentioned in the letter are just gravy.

[MarianneSnow]

IMO Mel wrote the letter or caused Selsey to write the letter in an attempt to force the AA prophecy upon Jon.

Is there a thread on this theory???

[eyeheartsansa]

After rereading ASOS and noticing how many times Mance addresses Jon as 'Bastard,' I'm about 75% sure it's Mance. It's even possible that Mance wanted Jon to know it was him, using 'bastard' as some kind of code word.

[ishmael]

Mel might be a candidate if you consider that the first Stannis chapter in TWoW is actually overlapped with the end of Dance some. How much, I'm not sure, but it does make it possible for Stannis to send Mel a letter with the Reek/Arya rescue information. She could have then written the letter that Jon received. The number of people who have knowledge of all of the information in the letter is limited. Stannis doesn't know about Mance and the spearwives, Ramsay doesn't know about anything going on at the wall. He could have gotten some information from torture, but some of the information is very specific and the right question would have to have been asked for him to have gotten it (Val for instance). Mel and Mance are the only ones who would have knowledge of all of the things in contained in the letter. Mel would have had to have gotten a heads up from Stannis, but her writting the letter is about the only way she would have been positive that Jon was going to get a letter (we've all seen her predictive powers many times).

[Howling Mad]

Is there a thread on this theory???

Its been discussed before but I can't recall a specific thread. You can try this one: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/65522-less-examined-bits-of-the-aa-prophecy-v2/ and this one: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/65234-heresy-10/

[Great Dayne]

I believe Ramsay wrote it and lied in his letter. He got the information from either Mance or a spearwive after he tortured them. Did not read TWOW chapter so I don't know if my theory is disproven.

Interesting theory about Mance sending it, but how would he have the capacity and or training to send a raven? Although if the goal was to get Jon to Winterfell with men to help Stannis it would make sense that Mance sent it. He would know that Jon wouldn't respond to help a King, but to help his sister another question.

[WhiteWalder]

Had to be Ramsay, just for the fixation on Jon being a bastard.

[fassreiter]

I am sorry, what do I miss here? I think it is perfectly clear that Ramsay has no idea that not that many days prior to the arrival of the letter at the Wall, an army of wildlings walked through the gates. He is working under two wrong assumptions:

First, he thinks Jon is with NW men only. He has no way of knowing that wildlings passed the gates, nor that they would be willing to fight for him. He doesn't know this because neither Mance nor the spearwives know. They left the Wall even before Val left to look for Tormund.

Second, Ramsay assumes that fake Arya has reached the Wall by now. And he has no illusions that Jon would recognize that this girl is not his sister. So where do people get the idea that Ramsay must be stupid to write the letter?

In fact the pink letter is a perfect plan: Ramsay wants to cow Jon into letting him be and not to try to get Winterfell into his hands after realizing the marriage with Arya was a fake and thus an easy weapon to take Ramsay out without even a fight. The letter is not written with the intention to get Jon (or any army) riled up. It is meant to make him stay out of northern politics. The letter tells him two things: First, Jon is isolated in the North now, because Stannis is dead. Second, he knows a secret that could bring Jon down as Lord Commander. Therefore, if Jon sends him the people he wants (why would Jon care about a Steward's daughter?) and shut the fuck up about any fake marriages, Ramsay won't start a war against Jon, starting by revealing what he knows about Mance Rayder.

Jon, on the other hand, works under completely different assumptions: First, by chance, he does have an army, and he knows that Ramsay does not know. Second, Jon has no idea that Arya is nowhere near Ramsay at all. No one could have anticipated that he would rally an army. He can use to letter to get the wildlings riled up, yes. But that does not mean the letter was meant to be used in this way.

Sorry for repeating myself since last summer, but I don't get why people use the same arguments again and again without ever considering the time line and the wrong assumptions that Jon and Ramsay clearly apply to their actions. If Ramsay had known that Arya did not reach the Wall, he would not have written the letter. If Arya had reached the Wall before the letter, Jon would not have rallied an army. He would have told the north about the fake marriage and without him ever leaving the Wall, Ramsay would have been destroyed politically.

It's still entirely possible that someone else wrote the letter, though.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

I agree with your arguments, Fassreiter. In fact, they make so much sense I'm not sure how the letter could have come from anyone other then Ramsay. I've heard some speculation that it came from Mance, but I don't see what motivations he would have to have Jeyne or Arya returned to Winterfell.

[The Taupe Grace]

Fassreiter, Bastard of White Knife. yep. Just - yep.

I simply cannot conceive of Mel or Stannis or anyone else being able to write like that (with so many repeats on the word 'bastard'). It's just too out of character for them. In fact I'm baffled there's enough conspiracy theories about the letter to last the thread this long.

[BlueHighwind]

Ramsay wrote the letter. But he's bluffing.

[eyeheartsansa]

Interesting theory about Mance sending it, but how would he have the capacity and or training to send a raven? Although if the goal was to get Jon to Winterfell with men to help Stannis it would make sense that Mance sent it. He would know that Jon wouldn't respond to help a King, but to help his sister another question.

I haven't yet pored over this scenario enough to speculate as to Mance's true motive here.. except that he is quite the enigma and his dynamic with Jon is a complex one. Perhaps he had some prior arrangement with some of the wildlngs at the Wall? He wants reinforcements to take Winterfell?

Mance was at the wall for some time, and a smart guy.. I expect sending a raven would not have been a problem for him.

[The Sleeper]

I am sorry, what do I miss here? I think it is perfectly clear that Ramsay has no idea that not that many days prior to the arrival of the letter at the Wall, an army of wildlings walked through the gates. He is working under two wrong assumptions:

First, he thinks Jon is with NW men only. He has no way of knowing that wildlings passed the gates, nor that they would be willing to fight for him. He doesn't know this because neither Mance nor the spearwives know. They left the Wall even before Val left to look for Tormund.

Second, Ramsay assumes that fake Arya has reached the Wall by now. And he has no illusions that Jon would recognize that this girl is not his sister. So where do people get the idea that Ramsay must be stupid to write the letter?

In fact the pink letter is a perfect plan: Ramsay wants to cow Jon into letting him be and not to try to get Winterfell into his hands after realizing the marriage with Arya was a fake and thus an easy weapon to take Ramsay out without even a fight. The letter is not written with the intention to get Jon (or any army) riled up. It is meant to make him stay out of northern politics. The letter tells him two things: First, Jon is isolated in the North now, because Stannis is dead. Second, he knows a secret that could bring Jon down as Lord Commander. Therefore, if Jon sends him the people he wants (why would Jon care about a Steward's daughter?) and shut the fuck up about any fake marriages, Ramsay won't start a war against Jon, starting by revealing what he knows about Mance Rayder.

Jon, on the other hand, works under completely different assumptions: First, by chance, he does have an army, and he knows that Ramsay does not know. Second, Jon has no idea that Arya is nowhere near Ramsay at all. No one could have anticipated that he would rally an army. He can use to letter to get the wildlings riled up, yes. But that does not mean the letter was meant to be used in this way.

Sorry for repeating myself since last summer, but I don't get why people use the same arguments again and again without ever considering the time line and the wrong assumptions that Jon and Ramsay clearly apply to their actions. If Ramsay had known that Arya did not reach the Wall, he would not have written the letter. If Arya had reached the Wall before the letter, Jon would not have rallied an army. He would have told the north about the fake marriage and without him ever leaving the Wall, Ramsay would have been destroyed politically.

It's still entirely possible that someone else wrote the letter, though.

This actually fits perfectly (he also says my bride, never Arya) and if Jeyne had arrived at the Wall the context of the letter would have been perfectly clear. It also leads to certain conclusions as well. Ramsay has at the very least taken some prisoners from Stannis' camp and close enough to the top to know that a) Stannis has "Arya" and has sent her to the Wall.