Ramsay's Letter to John

[I'll pay the iron price]

Is Theon even capable of writing what with his flayed/cut off fingers?

I'm SURE it wasnt him!

[BondJamesBond]

Now, I'm thinking it is definitely Ramsey. While there are motives for others faking the letter, the letter is classic Ramsay. He is trying to intimidate Jon into doing his bidding, but he doesn't know Jon has an army. Oops.

[jarl the climber]

My theory is that the Boltons had been in contact with Bowen Marsh and that the letter was written with the purpose of making Jon do something unwise. Theon states that Jon was beleived to be making common cause with Stannis. By stating he was going to march on Winterfell with the wildlings gave the conspirators an excuse to move against him. So the letter was actually a clever ploy.

Remember that there was a plan in the works to have Jon assasinated, it might have been modified and put into action after Cersei was arrested. Jon noted that Eastwatch was being commanded by a Thorne/Slynt loyalist after Pyke left, a capable man he thought but he didn't trust him. It could be that Eastwatch is all ready in the hands of the conspirators.

[BondJamesBond]

My theory is that the Boltons had been in contact with Bowen Marsh and that the letter was written with the purpose of making Jon do something unwise. Theon states that Jon was beleived to be making common cause with Stannis. By stating he was going to march on Winterfell with the wildlings gave the conspirators an excuse to move against him. So the letter was actually a clever ploy.

Yes, it could give a reason to assassinate Jon, but the assassins appeared to be torn between their duty to the NW and their affection for Jon. I have mulled that theory too but Jon's enemies on the wall are at other castles or ranging. I don't think the watch is frankly smart enough to pull this off.

[jarl the climber]

Yes, it could give a reason to assassinate Jon, but the assassins appeared to be torn between their duty to the NW and their affection for Jon. I have mulled that theory too but Jon's enemies on the wall are at other castles or ranging. I don't think the watch is frankly smart enough to pull this off.

It seems like Marsh was becoming more and more opposed to Jon. He felt that he was going to starve them and was comprimising the Watch by allying with Stannis and the wildlings. The most shocking thing about Marsh is his insistence in abandonig the Wildlings at Hardhomme after his black brother Cotter Pyke wrote to them explixitly telling them to send help anyway they could. This is not Stannis or Tormund asking for help, it is there sworn brother. Pycelle mentions Marsh by name in ASOS. When Kevan took the regency its probale that he remebered Marsh and contacted him to find out what Stannis was up to there.

[dollybird]

It's been a while since I have read that letter. Rereading it gives me goosebumps!!! I love it, love it, love it!!

I never really believed that the info in that letter was real. I did however just assume Ramsey wrote it and it was all lies. Now I am starting to think that he did not write it, here's why.....

(1) If Ramsey wrote it and what he says is true then it sucks because it means we missed the battle and we did not get to see how Stannis died. I think what ever anyone thinks of Stannis he deserved a better sending off than that.

(2) If Ramsey wrote it and its lies, what does he have to gain from provoking Jon. If Ramsey is lying then Stannis and his army are still alive and very much an immediate threat, meaning they're his main concern, so why would he be bothering Jon, surely he has much more to be worrying about

A few people think Stannis wrote the letter with the help of the information from Theon and I agree. In the letter it said "I want my Reek back". "I want my bride back". If Ramsey sent the letter and had truly defeated Stannis wouldn't he have his Reek and his bride back?? If he was so concerned about getting his hands on Selyse and her daughter and Mel wouldn't he be on his way to the wall right now? Why send a letter at all when the element of surprise would work much more in his favor??

That letter was written with one intention and one intention only and that was to provoke Jon snow.

Stannis wrote it because he did not want Jon wasting his resources rescuing and protecting the wildlings when he had better use and need of them. It would have increased his numbers and Jon could have approached Winterfell from the north with his army and taken them by surprise. Stannis wanted Jon to leave the wall even before he set out for Winterfell. Stannis is no fool. He is well aware of what it would mean to his cause to have a Stark, bastard or not, back in Winterfell and declaring for Stannis. Stannis also knows how honorable Jon is. He knows he will protect the women and the wildlings and defend their honor.

Can anyone actually see a situation where if Ramsey lied and Stannis is not defeated and dead and is still a threat to him why would he be bothering Jon Snow?? What would the point be??

Stannnis is not dead and is responsible for the letter I'd bet my house on it if it belonged to me!!

[I'll pay the iron price]

Stannis may be more wily and devious than many of us gave him credit for!

He wants what is rightfully his and will do anything to make it happen

[butterbumps!]

I agree strongly with Feissreiter's post (35) above that lays out the evidence in a really convincing way.

One thing (among many) that I find strange about the letter is the physical entity itself. While this doesn't negate the possibility that it is Ramsey, I wonder about the wax's being a "smear," and not a more sizable amount of pink wax at the least, or a full blown stamp with the Dreadfort seal- surely he'd have had more access to pink wax and seals than suggested by what we see. I could see this pointing to a forgery, in so far that someone reused pink wax from a previous letter.

But even more peculiar to my mind, he signs the letter "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell" but uses the Bolton color. I found it curious that he takes pains to emphasize his claim to Winterfell in words, but not use grey wax and the direwolf stamp. I have no better alternative theory, but just to point out that I always found it odd- surely there would be loads of Stark wax and seals available to him around Winterfell. I wonder if Ramsey would just logically use the Bolton color (as in it wouldn't occur to him to use Winterfell's), or if this points to someone with access to an old letter reusing wax outside of Winterfell, using the resources available to them.

[Aarick]

one of the biggest problems i have with the letter is, he asks for his reek back. no one would know he calls theon reek and claims his as his own property but a few people. all the other lords meet with theon at winterfell, and he keeps 'being' theon since roose needs him to validate in the eyes of the lords that it is arya. and in the tWoW chapter theon is a chained captive being prepared to be executed. if ramsey had really beaten stannis wouldnt he have found theon there and taken him back. unless of course he escaped when the attack came or was set free, assuming there was an attack.

[kwvapor]

I think it is Mance who writes it. Spending time in Winterfell he'd know all their names and nicknames and the way Ramsey speaks and possibly send/read other letters he wrote.

Mance has knowledge of all the contents within the letter.

Another thing is, Mel sends Mance and 6 spearwives out why? Her fire told her Arya would come North on a horse and it'd come true without interference. So she used that excuse to reveal Mance and give him a mission which she was the leader of. Now Mel may have given instructions to do this and that to Mance.

[dollybird]

How would Mance benefit from sending the letter? What would he have to gain? If he sent the letter then he's not captured and could probe leave Winterfell as easy as he got in it. If thats the case then he's pretty much free so its not like he'd have to send the letter to secure his freedom. I just can't imagine why he would send it.

[KingRichard]

I thought that Ramsay wrote that letter and he simply lied about defeating Stannis. Because all the rest could easily be the truth, considering what happened during Theon's escape :frown5:

I think Ramsay wrote the letter but he lied about most of it. Ramsay takes offense to being called a bastard, Theon says that it makes him very angry when he is reminded of the fact that he is a bastard. So Ramsay would think that it would also upset Jon, who he knows is a bastard. That is why he calls Jon bastard so many times and addresses the letter that way. If anyone but him wrote the letter they may not have known that Ramsay felt that way and would have assumed that a lord of the north would have addressed the Lord Commander with some amount of respect.

At least two of the women Jon sent to Winterfell didn't make it out, one of them could have been taken alive and then "questioned" aka tortured into telling the Boltons all those things about Stannis. They would know about Mance, his women and everything that the saw while at the wall.

Also IMO the letter was a little over the top, it says too much and the author is bragging. If Ramsay really did beat Stannis and Roose was still alive that doesnt sound like something Roose would do.

Ramsay lost the thing that legitimizes his claim to Winterfell and he is super pissed and is trying to get Jon to either leave the wall in force and then Ramsay hopes to defeat him. Or Ramsay thinks that he can scare Jon into giving up everything he asked for which would give Ramsay a number of hostages to use against Stannis.

[Frey_]

The letter is truly epic. I remember reading it for the first time and getting goosebumps!

I think Stannis wrote the letter, and that he planned to do so all along with Melisandre at the Wall before he left. I believe this because of the following:

- It explains why he left Mel on the wall in the first place. It always struck me as *highly* suspicious that the two seperated in the first place, and this would explain why.

- In the TWOW preview chapter, Stannis himself sats "You may hear I am dead. It might even be true..."

- The letter just has too many facts that I find hard to believe that Ramsay could have found out, even if he did torture Mance. Mance strikes me as a strong willed character whom I doubt would spill secrets so quickly, even if being flayed to the extreme.

- Ramsay strikes me a a sociopathic psychopath, with some cunning, but not enough cunning to have defeated Stannis and worked out what was going on at the wall in such a short period of time.

- Stannis has been known to use "dishonourable" tactics before - he authorised Melisandre to kill his own brother in ACOK via the use of dark arts.

- According to the TWOW chapter, Stannis knows all about Theon / Reek thanks to Asha and his own questioning.

- Stannis would know the seal of the Boltons from being a highborn man himself.

- Stannis was with a host of Northmen and the Banker of Bravos, wll of whom could have Ravens that could send a message to the Wall.

GRRM loves misdirection, and this letter has that classic feel to it. In my mind, it's just too obvious for Ramsay to have sent the letter, and with Roose around, I don't think he would have been able to, even if he wanted to. Mance could be another candidate, and there are plenty of arguments as to how and why he could have done it, so that possibility remains. I do get the impression with Jon and Mance's fight in ADWD that the two will have a final face-off at some point, so perhaps this will trigger that. however, for the reasons I have given, I believe it to be Stannis.

I have one other final crackpot theory - Ramsay did send the letter, and that Stannis was actually killed. This is based entirely from the preview chapter from TWOW, and the fact that Thoros of Myr has proved that those that follow the god of flame can ressurect the dead. Perhaps Stannis deliberately allows himself to be killed by the Boltons so that he can be ressurected and lure Jon from the Wall to his rescue? A bit out there, but with this series of books, I would never discount anything.

[Helgar]

I think the letter was written by Ramsay, but not all of it was true. I think that, when Theon ran away with Jeyne with the help of the washerwomen/spearwives, Ramsay logically turned to Abel/Mance and tortured him until he confessed who he was. Ramsay assumed that, since Mance basically orchestrated the escape, that Theon would look to Jon for salvation, and that Theon would be there with him. So, knowing that Jon had no way to disprove it, and trying to psyche him out, he lied that he'd slain Stannis and his host and demanded that his Reek be brought to him.

After all, if he had attacked Stannis, he would have known that Theon had sought refuge to him, if not by seeing him himself, then by interrogating Stannis's defeated forces afterwards.

[danm_999]

My own theory was that Ramsay wrote the letter, which was a combination of lies and information he got from having caught Mance.

He wrote it because when Jeyne arrived at the Wall, Jon was going to declare pretty loudly that no, this was not Arya Stark, and the Northmen were going to take the word of Eddard Stark's son and the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch over Ramsay's principle witness to Jeyne's validity, Theon Turncloak (who may even recant his own testimony now that he was out of Ramsay's influence). Plenty of people already thought this, but this would have been the straw that broke the camel's back for the Boltons and the Frey's.

So Ramsay needed Jon to do exactly what Jon did; compromise the neutrality of the Night's Watch so he could either crush Jon, or make Jon's accusations Jeyne was not Arya look like a partisan move by a belligerent Lord Commander against a rightful Northern lord.

[Kvothe the Arcane]

I don't think Ramsay wrote the letter purely on the emphasis of the use of 'bastard', Ramsay may have been formally adopted as Bolton's trueborn son but he was still sensitive about bastard jibes. Saying that he could easily just be flaunting his adoption to Jon, and as said the heir of Winterfell signing off. Totally agree that it is not Stannis' or Melisandre's style, the only ones it fits in character are: Roose/Ramsay, Mance or maybe even Wyman Manderley, who is stirring trouble up as much as he possibly can at Winterfell and could be attempting to get Jon to come retake the castle, especially given his pro-Stark ways.

[Dornish Bannerman]

Mance and Stannis both 'know' Jon well enough to know that Bastard and Trueborn Lord of Winterfell would intimidate him. Ramsay would say it just because it is his nature. Mance and Stannis would also know that Jon cares for Mance, he is an emphatic person. Stannis wants Jon to reveal himself as Lord of Winterfell and son of Eddard Stark. It would gain him the banners of the North, and the great oppurtunity to invade the South.

Either Ramsay, Stannis or Mance wrote the letter.

[WhiteWalder]

IMO Mel wrote the letter or caused Selsey to write the letter in an attempt to force the AA prophecy upon Jon.

This is what I thought as well...

Mel had the letter written, and the Jon that was stabbed was another person glamoured to look like Jon.

[BeanisPU]

I don't think Ramsay wrote the letter purely on the emphasis of the use of 'bastard', Ramsay may have been formally adopted as Bolton's trueborn son but he was still sensitive about bastard jibes. Saying that he could easily just be flaunting his adoption to Jon, and as said the heir of Winterfell signing off. Totally agree that it is not Stannis' or Melisandre's style, the only ones it fits in character are: Roose/Ramsay, Mance or maybe even Wyman Manderley, who is stirring trouble up as much as he possibly can at Winterfell and could be attempting to get Jon to come retake the castle, especially given his pro-Stark ways.

I completely agree. IIRC Reek would flinch if the word "bastard" was mentioned anywhere within Ramsay's earshot. I think its unlikely that Ramsay would use it, even if he was trying to goad Jon into marching on Winterfell.

[Scipio Africanus]

First off we have to look at the battle, presumedly preceding the letter.

Stannis is with a starving army, which consists of his remaining elements of Southron men-at-arms and knights. All the horses have kicked the bucket, so no cavalry for him. The bulk of his forces consists of Northern clansmen, Bear Islanders and Glover's people. Finally Stannis was joined by the (as the readers know) disloyal Karhold forces. Stannis is ripe for a slaughter.

However. His opposing forces are actually not in that much better shape. Bolton/Frey have loyal soldiers in their ranks and they're reasonably fed (not great), and may have some cavalry left. However, Manderly (even the characters know this) and is forces are not loyal and are ready to bolt. Roose Bolton has to act, sitting at Winterfell much longer and Manderly will be fighting Freys before the week had ended. Bolton needed to confront the enemy.

Lastly, Jonny sent a raven to Deepwood motte after Alynne Karhold told him that her uncle was going to betray Stannis. In one of the last scenes in ADWD we see the Baavrosi banker reach Stannis, obviously (just) before the battle was going to begin.

Did Jonny's raven reach Stannis in time? If it did, then suddenly Stannis has a very good chance of winning. We know Arnholf Karhold is in contact with Roose Bolton, but we don't know if Stannis is in contact with Manderly. If he is and Stannis knows about the upcoming Karhold betrayal, there's a good chance Stannis will defeat Bolton/Frey.

So, let us continue with the possible writers. At first I believed it was Ramsay Snow who wrote the letter, filled with lies aiming to vex Jonny at the wal. Now I'm not so sure. The most likely writers are:

- Ramsay

Pro: would be hostile towards Jonny, would know about the Mance plot (after torturing Mance and the spearwives for info)

Con: the use of the word bastard, something he himself is sensitive about, why demand his bride (no name mentioned) and his reek (no name mentioned) back if he beat Stannis?

Conclusion: on first glance a good candidate but if he beat Stannis and was torturing the shit out of Mance, why demand Reek and fake Aryan from Jonny? He would already have them.

- Roose

Pro: unknown

Con: unknown

Conclusion: honestly I find him an unlikely candidate.

- Stannis

Pro: would know about Jonny's personal life and the NW, would know about the Mance plot (and of Reek/fake Arya) as they delivered themselves to him

Con: wouldn't it be easier to just march back to Castle Black once he beat Bolton/Frey, and get Jonny arrested? Other then that a good candidate for the letter

- Theon

Pro: would know about Jonny's personal life and the NW, would know about the Mance plot (and of Reek/fake Arya)

Con: he is mentally and physically a wreck, I really don't see him plotting like that, and he has no position of power. A weak candidate in my opninion.

- Mance

Pro: would know about Jonny's personal life and the NW, would know about his own plot (and of Reek/fake Arya)

Con: quite likely captured before the battle, unknown if he's dead or locked up in a cage somewhere getting flayed. Of course he could've just escaped. A decent candidate but with a lot of unknown factors surrounding his person.

- Melisandre

Pro: would know about Jonny's personal life and the NW, would know about the Mance plot, and "fake" Arya (whome Jonny and she think is the real deal)

Con: would not know about Reek. That alone disqualifies her severely in my view. I don't recall the flames giving names to people, otherwise Mel would've known about fake Arya.

All in all it would be Stannis or Mance, with Ramsay a decent third. The real question is, what did the person writing the letter hope Jonny would do, and what was the goal of getting him to do what they wanted him to do?

Still have to think upon that but I think the letter to Jon at the end of ADWD is a great plot devise by Martin. He could go literally anywhere with this, within reason of course.