Ramsay's Letter to John

[fassreiter]

in ACOK, Theon is afraid that 'Reek' might have hidden a written account of how they killed the miller's children, so he doesn't dare kill him. He wonders why a man like Reek could read and write. Should have given that one more than a thought, though.

[One was naked.]

in ACOK, Theon is afraid that 'Reek' might have hidden a written account of how they killed the miller's children, so he doesn't dare kill him. He wonders why a man like Reek could read and write. Should have given that one more than a thought, though.

Here's the quote:

Theon had not heard him approach, nor smelled him either. He could not think of anyone he wanted to see less. It made him uneasy to see the man walking around breathing, with what he knew. I should have had him killed after he did the others, he reflected, but the notion made him nervous. Unlikely as it seemed, Reek could read and write, and he was possessed of enough base cunning to have hidden an account of what they'd done.

Thanks fassreiter- there goes that theory!

[thecommodore]

In my opinion, it is probable that the letter is from Mance.

Many signs in the letter point towards Mance:

(1) Frequent use of "bastard", which Mance used regularly in conversation to address Jon beyond the wall.

(2) Refers to the watch as "black crows", which I think is exclusively a wildling term in the series.

(3) Among the list of demands are the wildling princess and babe, who are clearly cared about more by Mance than anybody else.

(4) The letter is generally pre-occupied with Mance, including the statement that Jon "told the world" that he burned Mance. I think we know from Jon's opposition to the burning idea that he wouldn't broadcast it to the world (even if he had any communication with Winterfell at all, which seems unlikely).

Seperately, several plot details outside of the letter itself point towards Mance as the likely writer:

(1) Mel clearly has a purpose for him. Jon sends Mance's heir and Aemon away because Mel is a known spiller of "kings blood", but then bizarrely Mel goes well out of her way to NOT burn a king? Then she conspires with Mance at length, ultimately sending him to Winterfell allegedly to rescue a girl that she already saw escaping in a vision? Mel's actions are irrational and inconsistent with character unless she and Mance agreed that Mance was actually going to Winterfell for some covert action that has nothing to do with "Arya".

(2) GRRM goes out of his way to point out that Tormund cannot read the letter, going so far as to make Jon rather bizarrely assume that Tormund can read. This is a minor point, but I don't know why GRRM would include this unless Mance is the author and GRRM is establishing why Tormund doesn't recognize his compatriot's ruse.

(3) Mel and Mance's conspiracy would give a motive for all of the demands in the letter (including Reek if we assume that Mance had been in Winterfell during the Starks' reign and recognized the fake Arya). Mel could have seen the wildling horde in her fires and told Mance about them too, which adds to Mance's motive.

Obviously, the main alternative hypothesis is that the letter is written by who it claims to be written by! If we don't have serious reasons to doubt this, there's no point in all this speculation. Fassreiter did a great job in another thread of defending Ramsay as the author (http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/66398-the-bastards-letter/page__st__20). However, I'm not convinced:

(1) Meaningful contrasts between the presentation of this letter and the very detailed presentation of Bolton's letter to Asha. A "button" of pink wax sounds like a normal sealing method -- dripping wax on a letter. Smearing wax on a letter is different, and is something I would do to seal a letter with a tiny quantity of pink wax. The letter explicitly says the six women were flayed, but unlike the Asha letter does not rub it in with a piece of flayed skin. The letter's threat is to tear Jon's heart out, nothing to do with the flaying or skinning that Bolton is obsessed with.

(2) If Bolton wrote the letter (any Bolton), the intention must be to bring Jon into the fight. Fassreiter disagrees in the link above, and is right when he talks about the different assumptions being used by Bolton and Jon in this scenario. However, fassreiter assumes that the "secret" of Mance being alive is Bolton's leverage to get Jon to cave to these demands. This is contrary to Bolton representing in the letter that he ALREADY has Mance on display to showcase Jon's lies. Rather than fassreiter's theory of a letter deterring Jon from getting involved, this would in fact be a letter telling Jon that his secret's already out! If Bolton's motivation was to deter Jon from getting involved, he would clearly be better off telling Jon that Mance is hidden for now but would be exposed unless the demands are met. As written, Bolton's only leverage is his threat to attack the wall and the NW.

(3) If Ramsey wrote the letter, he must really believe Stannis is dead. This implies that either Stannis actually is dead, or faked his death. If he's actually dead, that is an incredibly underwhelming fate for a major character in a 10,000 page story, and it's illogical that Mel wouldn't see his death in the fires. Faking his own death seems equally unlikely for a few reasons. First, Stannis is not much of a fan of deception. Second, he'd have to keep his army out in the deadly blizzard for seven days of feigned fighting and some long indefinate period afterwards.

(4) Would Bolton really pepper the letter with "bastard"? Some people in his situation would. But with Theon/Reek cringing every time the word bastard was uttered, I think Bolton is not the type to hit the topic so hard. He is more the type to suppress the topic rather than try to play at turnabout.

Still, Ramsey writing the letter remains plausible. If that's how it turns out, my main complaint is GRRM's use of the word "smear" of pink wax and his decision to make such a feature of two Bolton letters without adding more homogeneity to confirm the authenticity of the second.

Other candidates to write the letter make zero (0.00) sense.

(1) Stannis would be acting way out of character to use deception and get followers on false pretenses rather than true fealty. There's no way he'd want his own family to make the trip either, having decided against it earlier and given the dangers of the journey through the blizzard.

(2) Mel without Mance doesn't have all the necessary information, and I don't think you could figure out the significance of Reek by spying at fires. It is unnecessarily complicated to assume that Mance sends the wall a raven with the key details and then Mel gets that raven rather than Clydas or Jon and then writes the forgery herself. Mance sends the forged letter, much simpler. All the reasons why Mel could be behind it still work if she conspired with Mance.

(3) The writing style is way too rash and abrasive for Roose, given his apparent misgivings about how public Ramsey is about his Reek and other misdeeds. Roose's presence in Winterfell is simply a complicating factor if the letter is from the Boltons at all -- he should be running the show, why is junior calling the shots?

(4) The Nights Watch conspirators are not nearly clever enough to pull this stunt. Also, it feels much more true to the story if Jon's vowbreaking forced their hand, not if they just fabricated an excuse to kill him. Frankly they didn't need additional cover for the killing after he let the wildlings through -- if that wasn't enough, then determination to fight a threat to the NW from the south wouldn't be enough either.

Just my two cents.

[Nahlim]

A very good post. Everything makes sense. But it's gonna be a long wait till we know for sure...

[thecommodore]

Yeah. I am new to the forums, because I just finished the fifth book. I started reading Game of Thrones in November. So five books down in 7 months... my reading pace will have to slow down just a touch!

[tolthar]

Anyone toyed with the notion that Ramsay did send an original letter after capturing mance. Stannis had it shot down, Wrote a new one and forwarded it to Castle Black, all to simply egg jon on to march on winterfel.

[thecommodore]

Anyone toyed with the notion that Ramsay did send an original letter after capturing mance. Stannis had it shot down, Wrote a new one and forwarded it to Castle Black, all to simply egg jon on to march on winterfel.

Well, no. Winning by deception and lies is still way out of character for Stannis, among other reasons he is not a plausible author.

[Lord Ben]

Well, no. Winning by deception and lies is still way out of character for Stannis, among other reasons he is not a plausible author.

I would disagree that it's out of character for Stannis, he went as far as to assassinate his own brother. I don't think forging a letter would be out of character.

But I do agree it probably wasn't him. Likeliest guess for me is Ramsey acting on false information.

[thecommodore]

I would disagree that it's out of character for Stannis, he went as far as to assassinate his own brother. I don't think forging a letter would be out of character.

But I do agree it probably wasn't him. Likeliest guess for me is Ramsey acting on false information.

What does killing your own brother have to do with deception? You're imposing your own morality, and for you killing your brother is worse than deception, so you assume the same must be true for Stannis.

Stannis' actual character in the book is somebody who will kill anybody who stands in the way of his rightful claim to the throne, will demand honorable allegance from everybody in the kingdom, but is among the least deceptive people in the entire pantheon of characters. His super-rigid code of honor is what makes him shorten Davos' fingers before knighting him. I can't think of any time in any of the books where Stannis outright lied about something. So I think to Stannis, killing a "pretender" even if he's your brother is not dishonorable, but a king should demand fealty rather than stooping to deceptive manipulations.

[Lord Ben]

The book is full of references to "kinslaying is bad" type references, I'm not imposing any of my own morality here to assume one "sin" is worse than the other merely using what the book provides.

He has Davos smuggle Melisandre under Storms End to kill the guy with a shadow baby. I don't think he'd blanch when faced with a bit of forgery. I don't think he wrote the letter but among all the reasons he didn't "he's too honorable to lie" isn't one of them.

[Ser Mag the Mighty]

I still think that Stannis and the Manderlys encountered each other, came to an accord and Stannis gave Lightbringer to Manderly, so he could take it to Ramsay, claim victory over Stannis and then Stannis and Manderly would be in a position to take Winterfell by surprise. The letter is written by Ramsay in the period between when Manderly comes back with Lightbringer, and when Stannis attacks.

This is exactly what I had in mind.

Ramsay is the author of the letter, but he's being played - most likely by Manderly. In the letter he asks for Theon and Jayne, but we clearly know they were with Stannis.

[Le.Chevalier.D'Eon]

Does anyone think that it might be possible that the letter was written by a crow. Maybe Allister Thorne out of revenge for Janos Slynt. Thorne knew how to get under Jon's skin and truly hated him, especially after he became Lord Commander.

If not Ramsay, the next best candidate in my opinion is Mel.

[bemused]

Without relying on clues that may be in the Theon gift chapter, Stannis knows Mance is alive , and has never been above resorting to deception if it served his cause. He keeps secrets. He's intelligent , and a tactical thinker , but unemotional and pragmatic , harsh , but just. To which I would add a sense of how a king should appear to his people.

He's far from illogical , yet when you read back over his conversations with Jon going back to ASoS , he must know how treacherous and untrustworthy Rattleshirt is , does know Mance could be a valuable source of intelligence in the coming conflict with the others , yet to all appearances , he burns Mance and plans to reward Rattleshirt with command of one of the forts , or some other holding.. ??? .. Now that would be illogical and out of character for Stannis.

Can't rule him out yet. Or Ramsay , or Mance ,or the other main candidates ..or even that the letter was written by one of them , but read and perhaps added to by Marsh &co ( including possibly, Thorne ) at the wall.

We simply don't know enough yet to identify the sender.

[Theda Baratheon]

Bastard, was the only word written outside the scroll. No Lord Snow or Jon Snow or Lord Commander. Simply Bastard. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. “You were right to come at once,” Jon said. You were right to be afraid. He cracked the seal, flattened the parchment, and read.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore. Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me. I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

It was signed,

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

I can't help but find it hilarious every time I read it, in a really dark, horrible way.

I have no idea who wrote it but I'm certain it wasn't Ramsay.

[bemused]

MBS... :D to the hilarity...

While I don't think we can rule others out , I really like the idea of Stannis, after reading the Theon TWoW chapter , where information and the means of delivery possibly fall into place for him.

But that aside , considering what I said about Stannis above, the fact that the letter only implicates Jon and Mel in faking Mance's death , amuses me no end. A king should not be seen to decieve , especially in dispensing justice.

I like Ramsay the least, perhaps mainly because I don't think he'd warn Jon of an impending attack.

[Grey Guardian]

Whoever wrote the letter needs to know about:

• Stannis and his army
  
• Stannis's "Lightbringer" sword
  
• Melisandre
  
• The burning of false-Mance
  
• Mance and the six spearwives going to Winterfell
  
• That Ramsey's bride had left him
  
• That Selyse and Shireen are at the Wall
  
• Val
  
• The wildling prince (but NOT know that he has been swapped with Gilly's babe)
  
• Reek.
  

I don't know who sent the letter - and it drives me mad! - but I don't think that it was Ramsey. However, I don't think that it could be one of the men at the Wall, nor Mel either, because they don't know everything/one that is mentioned in the letter.

There is only one person that knows all this while not knowing the babies had been swapped. Mance Rayder himself. Melisandre could also possibly know that Ramsay's bride and Reek escaped depending on what she's seen in her flames, making her another possible contender. And it's obvious both of them are in on something together.

I am almost positive that either Mance or one of the washerwomen sent the letter. I agree with everything in thecommodore's post above, but it's so large I don't feel like quoting it.

Of course, it's still possible that Mance spilled the information to Ramsay after a few rounds of flaying, and that it was then used as a bluffing tool in the pink letter.

[Golden&Crimson]

I found the letter quite chilling, and i thought, after rereading the letter that Martin is making us suffer more, like he did with the Red Wedding.

Maybe the answer to who write the letter is, simply, in the signature: Ramsay Bolton.

And the other answer to how he knows about Mance, the sword of Stannis and the other things is because Ramsay captured/killed/tortured them and is now toying with a bastard - Jon.

[Ribupr]

Even though I think Ramsay wroth the letter. My crackpot theory is that it was Stannis.

Stannis knows about everything that was in the letter, and he knows he is at a disadvantage in the coming battle. He could have wrote it to give him more numbers against Ramsay. Also the terms...false king, wildling princess, red witch, lies...sound like him.

Though I can't see him doing that, and I don't believe he did. But if it is not Ramsay...I think it was Stannis.

[Waylin Stark]

I think Ramsay did write the letter ... it seems like him. The constant use of 'bastard', seeing as how much of a hypocrite he is, and the way he demands Theon and Jeyne be brought back to them as if they were playthings and not people.

[drayrock]

Why do people not think Ramsey wrote the letter...? Like i guess it makes sense that Mance did if we are under the assumption that Ramsey didn't but what puts us there in the first place?